Reply #25: Republicans are actually doing pretty well in the polls.

[BzaDem]

From http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html:

ABC News/Wash Post 4/22 - 4/25 RV 43 48 Democrats +5
Gallup 4/19 - 4/25 1600 RV 45 45 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 4/19 - 4/25 3500 LV 44 38 Republicans +6
FOX News 4/20 - 4/21 900 RV 42 38 Republicans +4
Democracy Corps (D) 4/17 - 4/20 872 LV 45 43 Republicans +2
PPP (D) 4/9 - 4/11 622 RV 47 42 Republicans +5
CNN/Opinion Research 4/9 - 4/11 907 RV 46 50 Democrats +4
GWU/Battleground 4/5 - 4/8 1000 LV 41 40 Republicans +1


In other words, that's 8 polls. 2 of them are run by Democratic-favored organizations, and 1 of them in my opinion is run by a Republican organization (Fox).

The average of all these polls are Republicans + 1.1. Weighting according to sample size shows an even worse result.

Republicans lead or tie in 6 out of 8 polls.

Keep in mind that a tie means we lose 30-40 seats in the House, since we are starting way ahead of a tie. Anything less than a tie would be devestating and probably cost us our majority.