Reply #29: Too soon to worry - not enough info yet

[mochajava666]

On one hand, it's not too hard to imagine the beginning of the end due to an environmental disaster starting with people monkeying around with unproven technology and a misunderstanding of scale and interconnectedness. We have seen that many times in books and movies, and in real life.

On the other hand, this particular disaster would have to dramatically increase to cause some quick global changes leading to the ocean's dying. The Ixtoc spill in the gulf and the Iraq war oil dumping are two fairly good examples of the current scale of this disaster.

In a month or so, I would think we will be able to better predict the extent of this disaster. By then, most quick fixes to cap or gather the flow would have been tried (and most likely will fail) and then we would just have to wait for the alternate well to be drilled to relieve the pressure. Last time I heard, that would take a minimum of 3 months to a maximum of 6-9 months. If that's the scenario, the Ixtoc spill will provide a good predictive model to estimate the damage.

My best bet for the oceans dying scenario would be from acidification from excess carbon dioxide killing algae, not oil. But I'm a water chemist/ecologist, so I know my field, but know jack squat about oil rigs. Ask an astrophysicist, and they would say a gamma ray burst, or something like that. Ask a military person, and they might say nuclear confrontation. Ask the Republicans and tea baggers, and they would say that the end of the world started when we elected a black man for president. Everyone has their own perspective based on their knowledge and experiences, or lack thereof.

For a great summary of end of the world scenarios, check out Exit Mundi (http://www.exitmundi.nl/exitmundi.htm). I love that site.