The only thing that will stop the Gulf Gusher is a relief well injection in 60+ days.

[Statistical]

I hope I am wrong and the top kill or junk shot, or top hat stops the spill but I doubt it.

BP knows this, the US govt knows this, and anybody in the industry knows this. It is the cold hard reality that people want to wish away. It is much easier to pretend BP is intentionally fucking up rather than accept the reality that there IS NO QUICK FIX.

The only proven method to stop flow of oil once BOP is compromised is a relief well. The 4 largest platform spills all required relief wells.

Montara Oil Field - Australia 2009
Length of time till cap: 3 months
Method that finally capped well: relief well
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montara_oil_spill

Spewed for 3 months. Took 5 attempts via relief wells before well has sealed. Australia tried numerous other surface attempt (top kill, dome, surface siphon, etc). Ultimately capped via relief well.


Ixtoc I Oil Platform - Mexico (Gulf) 1979
Length of time till cap: 9 months
Method that finally capped well: relief well
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ixtoc_I_oil_spill

Spewed for 9 months. Took 3 attempts via relief wells before well was sealed. Mexico initially wasted about 2 months with various "domes" to contain the leak. Nothing on ocean floor was successful in providing more than a slightly reduction in oil flow. Ultimately capped via relief well.

Nowruz Oil Platform - Iran 1983
Length of time till cap: 6 months & 26 months.
Method that finally capped well: relief well
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nowruz_%28oil_field%29

Two separate oil gushers. First from when an Iranian super tanker collided with Iranian oil platform. Took 6 months to cap and that was in very shallow water. Yeah we really need dozens of Iranian tankers "cleaning up the Gulf", like we need a bullet to the head. Second gusher was result of Iraqi air-strike sinking another platform in the same oil field. The second leak took over 2 years to cap. Both were ultimately capped via relief well.

The reality is that once oil is freely flowing there is not much that can be done of the ocean floor to contain the situation.

The domes, and siphons, and top hats, and top kills, and junk shots are simply Hail Mary passes. It is unlikely any of them will cap the well. The best we can hope for is some method significantly reduces flow while relief wells are drilled.

First relief well is still over 2 months from completion.

Unless anyone thinks the Iranians, Australians, and Mexicans "allowed" their major spills to last longer than necessary it illustrates how long fixing the situation simply takes.