Assessments suggest BP's worst-case estimate of 60,000 barrels has been occurring all along

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http://www.tampabay.com/opinion/columns/article1097322.ece

The measure of a disaster

By Ian R. MacDonald, John Amos, Timothy Crone and Steve Wereley, New York Times
In Print: Tuesday, May 25, 2010

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At present, publicly known evidence for deep oil plumes consists of measured profiles of ocean color and oxygen concentration. The profiles show multiple, distinct layers 150 feet thick at depths from 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Hydrocarbon analysis that would confirm that oil caused these layers has not been released.

Taking all this into account, our preliminary estimates indicate that the discharge is at least 40,000 barrels per day and could be as much as 100,000 barrels. Certainly, our assessments suggest that BP's stated worst-case estimate of 60,000 barrels has been occurring all along. What matters most is that we take the steps to find out if it has.

Starting now, BP and the government must begin using the best possible means to measure this spill, while preserving all records of events. On the ocean floor, we recommend acoustic velocimeters, high-rate video cameras and imaging sonar. For the underwater oil, sonobuoys could detect layers of oil, and undersea gliders could follow them autonomously. On the surface, military drone aircraft could find and track patches of oil headed for shore as well as conduct surveillance over this now gigantic spill. Like the methods we have used, these are all readily available solutions.

No surgeon in an operating room would neglect an unvarnished assessment of a bleeding patient. In this disaster, an accurate measurement of the oil spill is no less important.

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Ian R. MacDonald is a professor of oceanography at Florida State University. John Amos is the president of SkyTruth, which uses satellite images to monitor environmental problems. Timothy Crone is a research scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Steve Wereley is a professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University.

© 2010 New York Times