Reply #20: My list wasn't intended to be exaustive.

[Statistical]

My point is exactly that. There are situations where oil is extremely useful and no good altenative exists.

However three areas where oil/hydrocarbons can be replaced rather "easily"

1) Electricity - The OP routinely mentioned electricity. All watts coming out of the wire are the same. There is no reason to use oil (or any hydrocarbon) for electricity. The only reason we do is simple economics.

2) Personal transportation. Heavy transportation & industrial equipment will need higher energy densities of hydrocarbons but there is no reason that in 20 years we couldn't have hydrocarbon products limits to non-personal use.

3) Heating. Oil isn't needed for heating. Geothermal heat pumps are very effective and work in 90%+ of the planet. Once again the only reason not widely used is economics.

Carbon tax will be necessary to resolve the low internalized cost of hydrocarbons however for the above applications there is no technical reason we need to use oil or any hydrocarbon.

Now things like pesticides, fertilizers, industrial applications, plastics, etc it will be much harder to find an alternative to oil. We should start with long hanging fruit. Electricity, personal transportation, and heating can be non fossil fuel within a generation.... IF WE WANT TO!