Reply #5: hinging on the definition of "likely" voter

[0rganism]

Might be worth checking to see if they changed the sampling weights in the last month. If they are using the same methods, there probably has been some shift toward McCain among elderly voters.

Anyway, don't fret about it. National polls are far less representational in terms of electoral success than state-focused polls. The last few show Obama with leads in all the states Kerry won in 2004 plus 6 that went for bush.