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Reply #15: That's not the Gulf though [View All]

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kdmorris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-01-08 10:12 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. That's not the Gulf though
And Ike hasn't become a hurricane, yet. It is forecast by a couple of reliable models to become a major hurricane, but at one point, Hanna was forecast to not become a hurricane until tomorrow sometime.

From the NHC 11 PM discussion on Ike:

THE INTENSITY MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING RATE WITH TIME...AND SUGGEST
THAT IKE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THERE IS
HOWEVER A LITTLE DIVERGENCE IN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
BEYOND 48 HOURS. BOTH THE GFDL AND THE HWRF INTENSIFY IKE INTO A
POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE WEAKENING
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.


I understand what you are saying, but all that is still what is POSSIBLE, not what IS. And the link you posted was written Saturday morning. A LOT has changed since then. The likelihood of Hanna crossing Florida and entering the Gulf isn't even being entertained anymore. It is likely heading for SC.
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