Reply #6: It's more than historical

[zipplewrath]

It effectively is a functional reality. Industry tends to downsize, but maintain some excess capacity, either intentionally or out of habit. When the initial upturn begins (if it begins) that excess capacity has to be consumed first. Then employment will begin to increase. To some extent increasing unemployment can be seen as predictive, but only in the sense of an expression of the pessimism of the employer. Of course that pessimism can be very accurate. But very few employers will layoff people before they are done using them. There are nuances of course, and we may see some here. It will be important to pay attention to government based employment because that isn't based as much on demand or productivity. And it can mask an otherwise continued depression of commercial labor.