Reply #35: CDC, HHS and DHS mortality/morbidity predictions regarding influenza pandemics... LINK

[Blackhatjack]

Use the LINK to view the data tables from the reporting authorities and a fuller explanation of the methodology used.


The number of hospitalizations and deaths will depend on the virulence of the pandemic virus. Estimates differ about 10-fold between more and less severe scenarios. Published estimates based on extrapolation of the 1957 and 1968 pandemics suggest that there could be 839,000 to 9,625,000 hospitalizations, 18-42 million outpatient visits, and 20-47 million additional illnesses, depending on the attack rate of infection during the pandemic. Estimates based on extrapolation from the more severe 1918 pandemic suggest that substantially more hospitalizations and deaths could occur. The demand for inpatient and intensive-care unit (ICU) beds and assisted ventilation services could increase by more than 25% under the less severe scenario.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_flu-pandemic-deaths.htm

Flu Pandemic Morbidity / Mortality

"Pandemic years are associated with many more cases of influenza and a higher case fatality rate than that seen in seasonal flu outbreaks. It is common to encounter clinical attack rate ranges for seasonal flu of 5% to 15% in the literature. For pandemic flu, clinical attack rates are reported in the range of 25% to 50%.

During a typical year in the United States, 30,000 to 50,000 persons die as a result of influenza viral infection. Frequently cited numbers are 20,000 deaths each year, and 37,000 annual deaths. About 5-10% of hospitalizations for influenza lead to fatal outcome in adults."

SKIP


"Because the virulence of the influenza virus that causes the next pandemic cannot be predicted, two scenarios were presented by CDC, HHS and DHS based on extrapolation of past pandemic experience. The DHS estimates are suspect, since they appear to derive from a 1999 analysis that was based on the 1997 US population of 265 million. By 2005 the US population was about 295 million, so the DHS estimates are about 10% low simply due to the growth in population.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), it has been estimated that in the absence of any control measures such as vaccination and drugs, a “medium-level” influenza pandemic in the United States could kill 89,000 to 207,000 people, affect from 15 to 35 percent of the U.S. population, and generate associated costs ranging from $71 billion to $167 billion. Another Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate suggested that, in the United States alone, up to 200 million people will be infected, 50 million people will require outpatient care, two million people will be hospitalized, and between 100,000 and 500,000 persons will die. These numbers are significantly higher than the estimates used by the Deparment of Homeland Security. The HHS notes that the death rate associated with the 1918 influenza applied to the current population would produce 1.9 million deaths in the United States and 180 million to 360 million deaths globally. It is most noteworthy that the "Low" scenario presented by HHS corresponds to the "High" scenario presented by DHS."

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