If Texas Was 5 States - Results?

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The website FiveThirtyEight.com has a great piece on the possible results of breaking Texas into 5 states - counter to the secession concept which is illegal. Posting for the curious at heart.

Nate Silver who has been on Countdown, etc, is the guy who most closely predicted the outcome of this past election and is a numbers-cruncher whiz. It's pretty interesting stuff how the votes and electoral college would be altered. (link below)



http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/messing-with-texas.html

added a shortened version of his summary below:

Net Effects on Balance of Power

If Texas were divided into five states, its number of senators would increase from two to ten, and its number of electoral votes from 34 to 42.

The senate seats in New Texas would most likely be split, while on average the Democrats would stand to pick off one of the four Senate seats between Trinity and Gulfland. This would give them a total of 4 seats to the Republicans' 6, a net loss of two seats that is no worse than the 2-0 disadvantage they are operating from currently. However, the shift in the senatorial balance of power would be slightly unfavorable to the Democrats overall, as the eight new senators created would increase the number of votes required to break a filibuster to 65, leaving the Democrats two votes short of a filibuster-proof majority, even if they managed to add four senators from the region.

The effects on representation to the House would be relatively unchanged.

Overall, dividing Texas into five states would probably slightly hurt Democrats in the Senate while slightly helping them in the Electoral College. That's not much of a rationale for Republicans -- or anyone, really -- to mess with it.