Reply #151: More than one possible cause of the atypical pattern of deaths

[Jim Pivonka]

The cause of deaths as reported in the media has included flooding of the lungs with fluids, and related symptoms.

Some reports have indicated, correctly, that these can be associated with strong immune system reactions. Though I am not familiar with and will have to research the "cytokine" response, I do know that immunlological reactions resulting in inflammation can "runaway" and cause tissue breakdown etc. So that would be one possible explanation. It would be consistent with a reduction in the degreee to which healthy immune response in young adults is protective against severe disease - in a few case the response goes too far and itself causes severe illness and death.

But in dealing with flu there is at least one additional possible reason. Some flu, notably the 1918 flu, is capable of causing severe inflammation of and tissue breakdown in the broncial and alveolar epithelium. This leads in some cases to a proteolytic cascade, a breakdown of epithelial cells and of the intracellular scaffoldingl, which is extremely serious - life threatening and hard to treat.

The second is the probable cause of the high death rate among young adults during the 1918 flu based on some characteristics of the virus. The first may have been significant too. I am not sure there is agreement about which is most important, or even if there is much evidence (other than the character of the virus) for either compared to the other.

I have not seen indications that this second possible cause has been excluded as the cause of death in the fatal cases.

The pattern of distribution of the fatal cases in time and geography is also of concern. The apparent distribution raises serious questions about the nature of the virus itself - is it changing rapidly? why? What characteristics (parts of its genetic complement) are changing?

Or is the apparent pattern only an illusion resulting from faulty and incomplete data? Too early to say.