Reply #4: More explanatory article

[rabs]

From STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE which points out that Lugo has enemies on all sides, not only from the left.

----------------------------------

Coup Rumors and a State of Emergency

Rumors of a potential coup in Paraguay are circulating throughout South America. On May 7, it was revealed in Brazilian, Argentine and Paraguayan press that a closed-door meeting took place on the sidelines of a Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) summit held in Buenos Aires May 3-4, in which UNASUR officials discussed the threats to Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo’s hold on power and reaffirmed support for the beleaguered leader.

Lugo, who has no shortage of political enemies, is also no stranger to his country’s coup climate. Lugo came to power in 2008 with an extremely fragile coalition — Patriotic Alliance for Change — that ended a 60-year rein in power by the Colorado Party. Political elites in the Colorado Party maintain significant control in Paraguay’s government, judiciary and armed forces and have been aggressively campaigning for Lugo’s removal.

Lugo also faces a threat from Vice President Federico Franco, whose party, Partido Liberal Radical Autentico (PLRA), helped Lugo defeat the Colorado Party in 2008, broke apart from the coalition soon after and is now locked into a bitter power struggle with the president. Adding to these pressures is the rising level of violence in Paraguay’s northern departments, where turf wars are being fought between drug gangs, and where the Paraguayan People’s Army (EPP) — a small rebel group with suspected links to drug trafficking and a reputation for kidnappings — has been operating with greater frequency.

In the past 14 years, Paraguay has witnessed two failed coup attempts, both led by politically ambitious Gen. Lino Cesar Oviedo Silva, who remains in Paraguay and continues to voice dissent against the government. Both the Colorado Party and the PLRA have been working to defame Lugo’s reputation by trying to link him to EPP, claiming the president follows the EPP’s liberation theology school of thought, which calls for social justice in issues such as land reform and assistance to the poor.

Lugo has responded to violence in the north and these political accusations by imposing a state of emergency in five departments of northern Paraguay beginning April 24.

Lugo’s recent decision to avoid travel during the state of emergency — including the cancellation of his May 17-18 trip to Madrid for an EU-Latin America summit — could be an indication of how seriously he is taking these coup rumors, as staying in country could help him deny his political opponents an opportunity to make a move against his government.

Critical to Lugo’s staying power will be his ability to contain the armed forces. Lugo has already reshuffled senior military officials in November 2009 and appointed Gen. Carlos Bordon military chief of staff. Lugo is also expected to soon ask Congress for an additional $850,000 for the Armed Forces’ budget for 2010 (Paraguayan military expenditures for 2008 totaled $71.8 million).

It remains to be seen whether such efforts will be enough to scuttle efforts by Lugo’s political opponents to bring down the Lugo government. STRATFOR will continue to monitor the situation closely for signs that these coup rumors could develop into a real threat.