NH-Gov: Lynch Up Double Digits But Under 50

[ccharles000]

PPP (4/17-18, New Hampshire voters, no trendlines) (primary numbers):

John Lynch (D-inc): 47
John Stephen (R): 36
Undecided: 18

John Lynch (D-inc): 47
Jack Kimball (R): 35
Undecided: 18

John Lynch (D-inc): 47
Karen Testerman (R): 29
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±2.6%)

John Stephen (R): 29
Karen Testerman (R): 15
Jack Kimball (R): 10
Undecided: 46
(MoE: ±3.9%)

As PPP's thorough visit to New Hampshire comes to a close, it looks like John Lynch, New Hampshire's three-term Democratic incumbent Governor going for a barely-precedented fourth term, is going to have a tougher race than was initially expected. Of course, that's all relative: the broadly popular Lynch has gotten accustomed to winning by huge margins (70-28 in 2008, 74-26 in 2006), and most pundits expected nothing different this year, so the fact that he's under 50 and looks like he'll have to put some effort in campaigning certainly amounts to "tougher."

I'd have chalked that up to the late entry to the race by John Stephen, a better candidate than was expected, to the extent that he's a former state Health and Human Services secretary and the guy who narrowly lost the 2008 GOP primary in NH-01 to Jeb Bradley. But Lynch fares pretty much identically against random businessman Jack Kimball, suggesting that declines in the Democratic brand in New Hampshire are rubbing off even on the redoubtable Lynch.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6780/nhgov-lynch-up-double-digits-but-under-50