PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Sestak Closing, Onorato Dominating

[ccharles000]

Muhlenberg College for Allentown Morning Call (pdf) (4/28-5/1, likely voters, no trendlines):

Arlen Specter (D): 48
Joe Sestak (D): 42
Undecided: 11

Dan Onorato (D): 41
Anthony Williams (D): 8
Joe Hoeffel (D): 6
Jack Wagner (D): 5
Undecided: 40
(MoE: ±5%)

"Closing" might be an overstatement for Joe Sestak, as this is the first poll Muhlenberg (go Mules!) has done for the Democratic primary so there aren't trendlines. Still, there was a Rasmussen poll that had Sestak within 2 of Arlen Specter last month, and the Pollster regression line shows some definite signs of life for Sestak. The question is whether the upward movement is coming too late, with the primary in two more weeks.

Contrast that with the Dems' gubernatorial primary, where Dan Onorato's trajectory has taken flight in the last month. Onorato's opposition has struggled to emerge from the low teens, and now they've all fallen back into the single digits. Even though 40% of the electorate is still undecided about this one, that's actually the lowest undecideds ever in the Dem primary so far.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6829/pasen-pagov-sestak-closing-onorato-dominating