Could Mitt Romney be the next president?

[RBInMaine]

I have a right winger acquaintance with whom I spar politically and who absolutely insists that Mitt Romney will win his party's presidential nomination and will be elected handily on Nov. 7th 2012. He is willing to make a bet on it. He says that in 2012 once they have their nominee, which will be Romney, the R's will "circle their wagons" while Indies stand "dizzy" and "Democrats stand in a circular firing squad." (Does anyone out there honestly think there is a real chance of this happening? Tell me what you think, with some reasoning please. Thanks.)

Here was my reply: 1) Romney is too "liberal" for today's Republican primary base which will be flooded by racist TeaPublicans who hate Obama to the core. Circular firing squad? Wait until the TeaPubs get ahold of Mittens, and he is a Mormon which the Christian Right doesn't like at all. The TeaPubs will chew him up and spit him out as a "RINO" while they throw all their support either behind Huckabee, Barbour, Gingrich, or Bachman, all of whom will probably run. (Palin will probably not run given her crosshairs website baggage and the money she is making off the idiots who watch her tv show.) Also, if a somewhat reasonable RePUB emerges, don't count out Pawlenty or Daniels. Pawlenty will most likely run, has turned hard right on religion and other issues, and is a major player in that party. Daniels may or may not run, but he would be formidable too. Also don't forget Chris Christie, the new darling of the right wing. There is a LOT unsettled there, but make no mistake, as much as the hard right base hates Obama, ANY "moderate" RePUB will have a very hard time winning that primary.

2) The TeaPubs, again, will split that party all over the map especially where TeaPub indies can vote in primaries. In caucus states, those motivated TeaPubs will flood the halls. Look at who they put up this last time for Senate in Alaska, Nevada, and Delaware. The hard right whacko TeaPub base is gonna be HIGHLY motivated, and they will not put up a moderate.

3) ALL the RePUB "moderates" will have to TURN hard right to win the primary. And they will propose policy ideas to pander to the hard right base. They will be on record with statements they can't walk back from even when they try to move to the center IF they win the primary.

4) The D's will NOT be in a circular firing squad, and there will be NO credible challenger to Obama. D's will in fact be VERY united and MOTIVATED this time as the economy continues to make gains and as the TeaPubs in DC and elsewere who won in Nov. continue to sink into crazy land with trying to privatize Medicare and SS, etc. (which also too, by the way, will give many older 2010 voters pause and buyers remorse for voting for the Pubs).

5) If the economy continues to improve even moderately as predicted, and given the strength of incumbency, Obama will win with 53% to 55% of the vote. Even Charles Krauthammer is already predicting that as a likely scenario.