Reply #37: My guess is that Romney will NOT win the nomination...

[Drunken Irishman]

And I'm going more on history than anything else.

His path to the nomination has been altered since 2008. Instead of focusing on Iowa, Romney has decided to forgo that state and emphasize New Hampshire. This was a similar path that Joe Lieberman took in 2004 and it failed miserably. It failed because Iowa will remain the first primary of the season and from November until the caucus in January, all media attention will be focused on that state and its contenders - not New Hampshire.

If Romney is seriously skipping Iowa, he will become an afterthought at the most important moment of the race.

This was also a similar strategy employed by Giuliani in 2008. He skipped Iowa, put more of his resources into New Hampshire & Florida and because of that, he was off the media map for two months.

It cost him.

NOW that's not to say it doesn't work. McCain essentially skipped Iowa and won New Hampshire. However, McCain was helped solely because Romney LOST Iowa. Had Romney won Iowa, he would've won New Hampshire and most likely the nomination.

So Romney's plan pretty much relies on the favored in Iowa, who instantly becomes one of the frontrunners, losing.

Even then, as 2004 proved with Kerry, Edwards, Dean and Lieberman - it's no guarantee. Dean and Gephardt led in early Iowa polls and even as late as December, it was an essential tie between those two and Kerry. When Dean was upset in Iowa by Kerry, it vaulted Kerry to the top of the polls in New Hampshire and he won their primary a couple weeks later. Lieberman was a distant fourth.