President Obama back up to 50% in today's Gallup tracking poll/What this number means historically

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Obama is back at 50% in today's Gallup tracking poll. He was at 50% (or better) last week. His numbers have fluctuated between 46 and 50% for most of the last 2 weeks.

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx


In 1980 Jimmie Carter had Gallup approval rating of 37% prior to election day. On election day he had 41% of the vote. (Reagan had 51% of the vote. Third party candidate John Anderson had 7%)


In 1984 Ronald Reagan had a Gallup approval rating of 58% prior to election day. On election day he had 59% of the vote. (Mondale had 41% of the vote)


In 1992 George Bush had a Gallup approval rating of 34% prior to election day. On election day he had 37% of the vote. (Clinton had 42% of the vote, Perot had 19%)


In 1996 Bill Clinton had a Gallup approval rating of 54% prior to election day. On election day he had 49% of the vote. (Dole had 43% of the vote, Perot had 9%)


In 2004 George Bush had a Gallup approval rating of 48% prior to election day. On election day had 51% of the vote. (Kerry had 49%)


Today Obama is at 50%. He has fluctuated between 46-50% for the last 2 weeks.



President/Gallup tracking % before election/Vote % on election day/+-

1980-Carter/37/41/+4

1984-Reagan/58/59/+1

1992-Bush/34/37/+3

1996-Clinton 54/49/-5

2004-Bush 48/51/+3



Obama 50/???


We still have a long way to go. But over the last 30 years, all incumbent Presidents with an approval rating in the high 40s or better have been reelected. (Low to mid 30s prior to election day is death) Most incumbent Presidents actually fair 1-3 points better than their tracking average. Only Bill Clinton did far worse than his pre-election Gallup tracking number, measuring 5 points lower in terms of his vote % total on election day.

If the election were held today, Obama would win.


1988, 2000 and 2008 are not listed because there were no incumbent Presidents seeking office.



Info sources:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx