Reply #39: Dean ended up with 18%

[karynnj]

His numbers in the tracking poll did erode. I found the poll fascinating. It was a 3 or 4 day smoothed average. As the numbers were changing from day to day, I was trying to approximately decompose it. Dean's numbers did indeed decrease.

Now, if Dean were never above 18%, he shouldn't have been seen as the huge favorite he was. There were 5 candidates and one was Lieberman, who had very little support. If you gave Lieberman 5% and said 15% were undecided (a large undecided at that point), that leaves 80% - spread evenly, that is 20% each. If you assume 23% undecided, it would be tied at 18%. To make Dean, even 1 point higher than the others, means assuming 27% undecided.


I think the reason most did not see it, is that the national media didn't believe it and said polling when it is a caucus is not accurate and they assumed that Dean would have the energy and momentum.