First Thoughts: Why Cain? (MSNBC)

[brooklynite]

from http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/10/13/8301837-first-thoughts-why-cain">MSNBC First Read:

*** Why Cain? According to our new NBC/WSJ poll, Herman Cain now leads the Republican presidential field, getting 27% among GOP primary voters -- followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Rick Perry at 16%, and Ron Paul at 11%. But why Cain? Our NBC/WSJ co-pollsters conducted follow-up interviews with Cain supporters and found two typical answers: 1) he’s not a politician, and 2) he’s real. “Cain is a good guy and so real,” said a male respondent from New Jersey. “Cain gives direct answers. He is succinct. He isn’t a politician,” added a male respondent from Washington. “He is plain-spoken and down to Earth,” said a woman from Texas. “It is kind of appealing that he is not in politics,” noted another female from Texas. “I have to be personally honest: I rely a lot on talk-show hosts, people I listen to and respect -- and they respect him. Rush Limbaugh, listen an hour a day,” said a female from Washington.

*** And why not Romney or Perry? “Romney’s Mormonism is kind of scary… Perry is just too much of a fundamentalist Christian for me,” said the man from New Jersey. “Romney is hypocritical. He is a New England politician, and that does not resonate with me… Perry’s debate performance in Florida was a disappointment. I did not like his position on illegal immigrants and funding their education,” said a man from Florida. “Both Romney and Perry are steeped in politics,” said the man from Washington. “I can’t support Romney in the primary because of RomneyCare. I liked Perry until I heard about the HPV vaccine,” said the female from Texas. “Romney has RomneyCare… Perry is a preacher, Romney is suave, and Cain is real,” added a man from Michigan. These are re-interviews with actual respondents, but think of them as more of a focus group…

*** Where Cain over-performs: According to the NBC/WSJ poll, this is pretty fascinating: Cain over-performs vs. Romney in the GOP horse race among high-interest Republican voters, men, those 55-plus, Republicans who have college educations, Tea Party supporters, and those who identify themselves as “very conservative.” Where Romney over-performs: less-interested voters, women, non-Tea Party Republicans, and moderate/liberal Republicans. In fact, re-read the responses from the RE-interviews: These are folks who ARE watching the debates and who are paying attention to the day-to-day campaign. These numbers are yellow flags that border on red for Romney. Why? He’s being propped up by folks who simply are familiar with him, not those who are actively following the campaign. Ouch.