Reply #8: I disagree with his prediction for the Super Congress.

[Jim Lane]

He's saying that no agreement will be reached -- that the committee will deadlock 6-6, because each party's representatives will vote as a bloc.

That's not what's generally happened in this Congress. The Republicans have voted as a bloc, with near-perfect uniformity, but they've often been able to find some Democrats to "reach across the aisle," i.e., to vote for Republican plans.

In this instance, many of us on DU see that happening again, with the most likely co-conspirator being Baucus. The committee will produce a "compromise" plan. It will have no significant revenue component. As compared with the cuts that the trigger would implement, the committee's compromise will shift most or all of the pain away from the military, by implementing even more brutal cuts to social programs than would occur under the trigger. This plan will pass both houses with unanimous or near-unanimous Republican support, and plenty of Democrats (enough in the House to make up for any Tea Party defections, and enough in the Senate to turn the Republicans' nominal minority into a working majority).

In sum, the linked article, which presents a very bleak picture, is still too optimistic.