Analysis: Iraq at Crucial Turning Point

[leftchick]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050210/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_the_weeks_ahead

However, it is by no means certain the elections will set the stage for a stable Iraq. Instead, the weeks ahead could repeat the slide into chaos that followed last summer's transfer of sovereignty to an Iraqi government.


Ominously, violence is once again on the rise just as some of the most experienced U.S. military units prepare to leave. Their replacements, some of them part-time soldiers from the National Guard, will need time to learn the situation on the ground.


"Success is probably going to take a month to determine," said Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.


"It isn't about who is elected, it's what they do," he added.


In particular, there is no sign the elections have cut into the core of the insurgents' support — Saddam loyalists, nationalists and religious extremists among the Sunnis of central, northern and western Iraq.

[jody]

1. It’s probable that the majority Shiites and Kurds will dominate

the new government with the Kurds going their own way in a loose confederation to protect them against Turkey and the Shiites establishing a quasi Islamic theocracy in their area with strong ties to Iran. The Sunni community will be left to wither on the vine.

What goes around comes around and Dubya will up the proverbial creek without a paddle.

[indigobusiness]

2. Au contraire

"Success is probably going to take a month to determine,"

Failure was assured when the first shot was fired.

[Placebo]

3. Things are definitely going to get worse before they get better.

Sad times.

le sigh...

[Blower]

4. A slow genocide?

If this turns into a slow genocide--like it is looking--do the elections somehow legitimize this?

They had to know this all along! It will keep the OIL PRICES HIGH for a long time to come!

[ClintonTyree]

5. There's a shitload of Saudis fighting there too..........................

as was reported on FRONTLINE the other night.

[DS1]

6. Again?

:eyes:

After how many turning points do we end up where we started?

[jody]

7. LOL, enough turning points and one goes in circles. n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. 3

[oppositionmember]

8. It's always been at a crucial turning point...

but Day One and the few that followed fucked it up irretrievably.

[peterh]

10. My laugh for the day….

the weeks ahead could repeat the slide into chaos that followed last summer's transfer of sovereignty to an Iraqi government.


The day Iraq has true sovereignty is the day Negroponte gets put on hold…..Iraqi sovereignty is nothing more than a US façade…..