Schroeder Calls for Early Elections

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

BERLIN May 22, 2005 — Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder called Sunday for early elections this fall a year ahead of time after his party suffered a crushing defeat in Germany's most populous region, saying he lost the mandate he needs to fix the country's struggling economy.

A somber Schroeder made the announcement after his Social Democrats did far worse than expected in local elections in their former stronghold of North Rhine-Westphalia, which they had governed since 1966.

"With the bitter election results for my party in North Rhine-Westphalia, the political basis for the continuation of our work has been called into question," Schroeder said in a brief appearance at his headquarters. "For the continuation of the reforms, I believe clear support by the majority of Germans is essential."

Early elections would cut short by a year the second term he narrowly won in 2002, helped by his opposition to the U.S.-led war in Iraq. Schroeder became chancellor in 1998 by ousting long-serving conservative Chancellor Helmut Kohl.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=780710

[Kipling]

1. Uh-oh...

Not good. The Christian Democrats will get in and turn Germany into a giant sweatshop. Come on Shroeder, just deregulate the job-market a bit. You'll sacrifice a bit of principle and save a country.

[sweetheart]

2. hardly, that would be stupid

He's already put his party near the soup-line by undertaking right wing
reforms under a labour government. His welfare reforms have cost him
dearly amongst the "its the economy stupid" voters... as it is a threat
and an uncertainty during the same time that Germany has absorbed a lot
(lot!) of immigrants, AND been re-united with a collapsed economy... and
he's speeding on the motorway clueless of the electoral costs of his
behaviour.

... and are you being ironic, or republican? MORE labour reforms could
put the german "republicans" in office for more offensive Bush-like
behaviour... what are you saying exactly there?

[AP]

8. Had Bush not become president, the economy would have been fine

and Schroeder would look like a genius.

No policy changes Schroeder could implement can improve a global economy being destroyed by US imperialism in the ME.

But no German (or British, or French, etc...) voter will ever want to admit that their country is not sufficiently powerful to offset the power of the US...so they'll elect RW'ers who will play along with Bush RW'ers and implement even more wealth-concentrating, fuck-the-people policies...even though that's what the people think they're voting against when they dump the liberals suffering under Bush's global economy.

[Kellanved]

3. very bad news for Germany and Europe

The Social Democratic government suffered from very poor media management; trying to play catch-up with the reforms missed in the 16 years under conservative reign didn't help either.

Calling for elections now is a somewhat sound tactic: there is no reason to believe that the polls would improve next year. The opposition doesn't have a candidate yet; this is like a offering a vote of no-confidence to the general public.
Also, even in the case of a defeat, it does vastly increase the chances in the upcoming state-elections and the linked upper-house seats.

For me it means a lot of work. I can't speak officially but I believe volunteers will be very welcome indeed.

[Wright Patman]

4. Since Germans obviously want to preserve

their social safety net and rightly so, why would Schroeder want to do anything other than move hard to the left now and tell the "market reform" crowd to sod off, as the Brits would say.

Why would there be any chance of the woman on the right with the CDU being able to be elected by campaigning for a German form of Thatcherism?

[Kellanved]

5. The problem are left voters staying at home,

not so much left voters moving to the right.

The "German Thatcher" is a possibility; I don't know whatever or not she'll actually get nominated.
Also, the Schröder Government has a major PR problem; any success totally got ignored, while apparent problems were overblown/ attributed to the federal government - even if it was clearly not to blame.

[AP]

7. RW media is never going to spin favorably for progressives.

[AP]

6. He stood up to bush, and for that, conservatives will take over because of

the economic malaise caused by the instability in Iraq that Bush caused.

[Imajika]

9. What?

"He stood up to bush, and for that, conservatives will take over because of the economic malaise caused by the instability in Iraq that Bush caused."

Sorry, that just doesn't cut it. Germany has been in the economic gutter for quite sometime now. Infact, it was Schroeder's standing up to Bush with his anti-Iraq war position (and his handling of the flooding situation) that saved his bacon in 2002.

The German economy is sick. The business friendly reforms Schroeder has embraced were a response to the lousy economy. It is those reforms, not anything caused by the Iraq war, that offended his party's base and have caused low voter turnout amongst left of center voters.

Having to absord the East's dysfunctional economy has caused Germany tremendous economic pain. Schroeder's calling for an early election is probably the best option at this point. It will make the public seriously chose a direction rather than keep casting protest votes which are killing the Green/Red alliance. When the public really has to chose between the social democratic agenda and rightwing pro-Bush position, the left might have a chance.

At the end of the day though, I am worried that a conservative Thatcher-like government is coming to Germany. There just might not be anything that prevents it at this point.

Imajika

[AP]

10. The global economy sucks because of Bush.

[Imajika]

11. Sorry, but that just doesn't cut it...

...many of the Eurozone economies haven't been good for quite some time. The German economy has been sick for years. The US economy is outpacing Germany by leaps and bounds. You can't just blame the woe's of any nation you want on Bush. You can point to monetary policy and the devaluation of the dollar, but if that benefits the US at the expense of Germany - well that is just too bad. It is Germany's job to compensate for US policies. Your not going to win many elections by whining that the other guy did what he thought was in his best economic interests.

Germany essentially inhereted an entire nation - one whose economy was rotten to the core. It is predictable that this would cause all sorts of economic chaos and result in years and years of pain.

Schroeder tried to enact business friendly reforms to get the economy on track. Whether any of that will work is left to be seen. In the meantime, he has disillusioned his base resulting in left of center voters staying home.

Imajika

[AP]

12. It happened to California and it happened to Chile.

And if you don't believe that it is done by design, read The Pinochet File.

[rfkrfk]

13. disagree about East Germany

There is a much bigger problem.

The takeover of an area {GDR} with
'millions of eager customers',
would be viewed by most other countries
as fortunate.

IMO, Germany's problem is,
global overcapacity, global emerging competition,
in Germany's export markets.

[Kellanved]

16. That is ridiculous

It just doesn't work like that; you have to consider that these people started out with zero spending power.

The reunification costs are massive, and maybe not the single source of Germany's problems, but by far the biggest.

[rfkrfk]

17. there is a reason for, zero spending power

There is a reason why the {wouldbe eager customers}
Easties have zero spending power.
Shortly after unification, the rest of East Europe
was opened to the western world.
Why would any commercial operation bother with
locating in the former GDR?

Let's face reality, if German industry 'just vanished',
it would not be rebuilt,
Germany would be converted into an amusement park.

[burrowowl]

14. Should be combined with

earlier thread (but 1st post had German article in German) for comments:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=1491890

Yes, troubling.

[Kellanved]

15. no,

This one is about Schröder calling early general elections, the other one is about losing a state election.