STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 10 October

[ozymandius]

Monday October 10, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 103 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 294 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 358 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1415
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 7, 2005

Dow... 10,292.31 +5.21 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq... 2,090.35 +6.27 (+0.30%)
S&P 500... 1,195.90 +4.41 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.36% -0.01 (-0.11%)
Gold future... 477.70 +2.70 (+0.57%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
A Look at Confirmations and Non-Confirmations

This was a bad week for the bulls, but from a Dow theory perspective, this decline remains unconfirmed. As long as this short-term non-confirmation remains, there is hope for the bulls. Specifically, the recent decline seen by the Industrials has carried them below their mid-September short term low. Yet, the Transports have held above their corresponding low. Could it be that this non-confirmation is telling us that price is forming or about to form another low, or are the Industrials simply leading the charge?

-cut-

So what we have here is the Industrials in gear with the financials, the small caps and the tech sector. This tends to point toward a uniform broad-based decline. However, we have the Retail Holders, which often lead the market, not confirming this decline. Furthermore, we have the Transports that are currently out of gear with the Industrials. Therefore, from the perspective of confirmations, the bag remains mixed and uncertain for both the bull and the bear in the short term.

But, as I have been saying for months now, from a longer term Dow theory perspective, the advance out of the 2002 low is merely a secondary reaction within the context of the ongoing bear market. The sideways action seen for the last 22 months has been and continues to be the distribution top of the rally, which will ultimately separate Phase I from Phase II of this bear market. All the while, we have record bullishness among the masses. Last week Investors Intelligence recorded the longest running period of consecutive weeks of more bulls than bears.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rises over $62 on lost output woes

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices rose above $62 on Monday as lost supplies from the Gulf of Mexico and strike-hit French refineries ahead of winter outweighed weaker U.S. demand.

U.S. crude oil futures were up 45 cents to $62.29 a barrel by 0538 EDT, extending Friday's 48-cent rise that marked a light recovery from a nine-week low of $60.70 the previous day. London Brent crude was 34 cents higher at $59.55 a barrel.

Prices were hit last week after U.S. government data showed lower gasoline demand in the United States, the world's top energy consumer, though they remain 43 percent up from the start of the year.

The high oil prices are acting as a brake on European growth and the world economy, Austria's finance minister said on Sunday, though oil analysts are looking ahead to higher winter demand.

more

[ozymandius]

3. Natural Gas's Danger Signs

Soaring natural gas prices threaten to propel winter heating bills sharply higher, slow economic growth and push manufacturers overseas.

U.S. consumers could face bills averaging 48 percent higher this season than last year, according to predictions by the economic research firm Global Insight Inc. The escalating costs could cause Americans to cut back on dinners out, trips to the mall and spending, crimping U.S. economic growth. Businesses, squeezed by high energy costs, could limit expansion plans. The high prices also are pumping up inflation.

-cut-

Andrew N. Liveris, chief executive of Dow Chemical Co., told a hearing yesterday before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee that the country is in a "natural gas crisis." The Midland, Mich., company, which uses large amounts of the fuel to produce chemicals, must consider locating new plants in other parts of the world, such as China and the Middle East, because of U.S. energy costs, he said.

"How can I recommend investing here?" Liveris said.

more

[UpInArms]

24. Natural-gas prices lead energy futures lower in early trade

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38635.4301093866-845472044&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Natural-gas prices fell to a three-week low of $12.88 per million British thermal units, leading futures prices for crude and crude-products lower in early trading. November natural gas was last down 28.6 cents, or 2.2%, at $12.94. November crude was down 49 cents at $61.35 a barrel, November unleaded gas was at $1.80 a gallon, down 2.92 cents, and November heating oil lost 1.11 cents at $1.949 a gallon. "The curtain is coming down on the 2005 hurricane season and with damage already priced in, the focus will now fall on storage replenishment" for natural gas, said John Kilduff, an analyst at Fimat USA.

[UpInArms]

8. U.S. Gasoline Rises to $2.91 a Gallon, Lundberg Survey Shows

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aXPloRRCR7nQ&refer=us

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. gasoline pump prices rose 10 cents from two weeks ago to an average $2.91 a gallon, Trilby Lundberg said, citing a survey of about 7,000 filling stations by her Camarillo, California, research firm.

The increase reflects disruptions to U.S. refinery output from Hurricane Rita, which struck the coast of Louisiana on Sept. 24 after sweeping across the Gulf of Mexico, Lundberg said in an interview today. Prices had fallen during the previous two weeks as supplies recovered from Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall on Aug. 29.

``After a lot of the supply came back after Katrina then we had Rita hit,'' Lundberg said. ``What we will see, I believe strongly, is pump prices will be tumbling. The capacity is coming back, imports are high and demand is shrinking away from these high prices.

Gasoline futures based on wholesale prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange have fallen 30 percent since closing at a record $2.6145 gallon on Aug. 31, after Katrina. Gasoline for November delivery fell for a seventh-straight session on Oct. 7, dropping 1.13 cents to $1.8292, the lowest close since Sept. 16.

At least 15 refineries in Texas and Louisiana, accounting for about 24 percent of U.S. capacity, were closed as Rita approached last month. Electricity has been restored to seven idled refineries near the Texas-Louisiana border. Eight of nine refineries in the Houston area have resumed operations after being spared major damage.

...more...

[UpInArms]

60. Nov Crude closes @ $61.80 bbl - NatGas closes @ $12.975 mln btus

2:56pm 10/10/05 NOV CRUDE CLOSES AT $61.80/BRL, DOWN 4C FOR THE SESSION

2:55pm 10/10/05 NOV NATURAL GAS ENDS AT 2-WK LOW OF $12.975/MLN BTU, DOWN 2%

[ozymandius]

4. Inflation gauge at highest in over 5 yrs

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures climbed in September to their highest in over five years, according to a report on Friday that suggested the Federal Reserve was right to remain vigilant over price increases.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute said its Future Inflation Gauge rose to 122.7 last month, its highest since June 2000, the tail end of the late 1990s economic boom.

-cut-

Over the past few weeks, Fed officials have gone out of their way to remind investors and consumers that they must continue to raise interest rates to ward off inflation.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Greenspan Concerned About Risky Mortgages

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is turning up the volume on his warnings about the potential perils of certain risky mortgages if the high-flying housing market loses significant altitude.

There are signs some companies are getting the message. A few have begun scaling back some types of those mortgages or making them less appealing by raising costs.

Greenspan mostly is worried about homeowners who took out an interest-only mortgage or option adjustable-rate mortgages to buy property they otherwise could not afford. Borrowers and lenders holding such loans could get clobbered if housing prices drop or interest rates rise.

-cut-

These mortgages are appealing to people who need cash for other expenses. But it also exposes them to far greater risk — if housing prices drop, their loan could be worth more than their property. If interest rates rise, their loan will become expensive to pay off.

more

[WCGreen]

7. Just wait until the full effects of the bankruptcy bill are realized...

Consumer spending will suffer....

[ozymandius]

15. to your point: Americans Increase Borrowing in August

WASHINGTON - Americans increased borrowing on their credit cards and for purchases such as autos in August, although the gain wasn't as sizable as it was the previous month.

The Federal Reserve said Friday that consumer debt rose at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in August after climbing at a faster 3.6 percent rate in July.

The overall increase in debt of $4.88 billion was in line with private economists' expectations. Consumer debt had risen by $6.5 billion in July and a huge $14.96 billion in June.

Economists have been expecting consumer borrowing to slow, given that the savings rate has dipped to record lows. The savings rate was minus 0.7 percent in August, the third straight month it has been in negative territory, but a slight improvement from the all-time low for savings of minus 1.1 percent in July.

more

[UpInArms]

32. Debt: consumers juggle big burden

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/07/pf/debt/debtmeasures/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The American consumer has long enjoyed a healthy dose of borrowing, but the sustained low interest rates of recent years have launched consumer debt to near-record levels.

The so-called financial obligations rate -- which measures minimum required debt payments as a percentage of disposable income -- rose to 18.4 percent in the second quarter. This is near the record of 18.8 percent in late 2001.

So the incomes of many American households are heavily tied up in monthly debt payments.

"Low interest rates and rampant house price appreciation have really been driving borrowing," said Scott Hoyt, Direct of Consumer Economics at Economy.com. "As long-term rates finally start to rise, the pace of debt accumulation will slow."

<snip>

Many households have far more plastic than you could fit in a wallet. The average number of bank cards per cardholding household is 19.3 -- typically eight bank cards, eight retail cards and three debit cards.

Bank card delinquencies reached an all-time high in the past quarter, according to ConsumerFlow.com, with 4.81% of accounts missing minimum payments. The Web site's analysts attribute the increase to high energy prices as well as changes making it more difficult to file for personal -- or Chapter 7 -- bankruptcies.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Rush to file for bankruptcy

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/10/pf/debt/bankruptcy_runup/

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) – Bankruptcy filings in the past few weeks have spiked to record highs as consumers rushed to file before a new, more stringent bankruptcy law takes effect on Oct. 17.

For the week ending Oct. 1, bankruptcy courts reported a total of 68,387 filings, up from the previous record high of 55,052 the week before, according to data from Lundquist Consulting. Year-to-date, the number of filings has grown 14 percent compared with the same period in 2004.

On a daily basis, the increase is far more dramatic. There were more than 13,000 filings per day on average in the week ending Oct. 1. That's almost double the average number of filings per day in August.

That has meant a heavy caseload for bankruptcy attorneys.

"The ones in my practice tell me they're absolutely buried," said John Penn, president of the American Bankruptcy Institute and a partner in the Texas firm of Haynes and Boone.

...more...

[ozymandius]

36. You know what I was thinking?

Pigboy was flat broke.

Daryn Kagan would have dropped his polyp-riddled ass faster than a ton of lead.

[UpInArms]

37. LOL!

:rofl:

Now that would have been a great article!

[AnneD]

18. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: There comes a point when you start to feel sorry for all those 'suprised' economist.......BUT I'M NOT THERE YET. Newscast after newscast they spew this we have no inflation (after we discount food and fuel), and Greenspin keeps saying-I'll raise rates to 'keep' inflation in check, they say every thing is peachy in the Gulf Coast-the Oil and Gas industries are doing fine.
Anyone buying or investing (or worse yet voting) along those lines deserves what they get. If people had even voted their pocket books in the last election, we would have been far better off.
I have my hatches secure and I'll help as I can (because Christ commands us to help-and I walk the walk)-but I won't feel sorry for some of these people when the mata hit the fan. I have the gut feeling we ain't seen nothing yet.

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.24 Change +0.07 (+0.08%)

Zig Zag Week

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4068&Itemid=39

"The U.S. economy, I think, will weather this disaster. We will see improvement in growth as we go in to 2006. The main concern I have is actually for inflation. I'm not concerned it will have this massive break out but prices are clearly being pressured higher right now."

Thomas Hoenig
President of the Kansas City Fed.
Thursday, October 6, 2005 08:44 GMT

Zig Zag Week

The US economy is up. The US economy is down. Take you pick. On Monday ISM Manufacturing printed 59.4 against expectations of 52, but by Wednesday the ISM Non Manufacturing survey reversed the momentum by printing a much lower 53.3 vs. 60 expected. Given the fact that services now make up 80% of US economy, the market was properly spooked and the dollar went into 200 point tail spin against the euro by midweek. Finally Friday’s NFP came in much better -35K against -150K projected as post Katrina effect seemed to be far less destructive than feared. But as we noted in our post NFP note, “The EUR/USD dropped about 40 points in the aftermath of the release but recovered some of the loss, reflecting the market's uncertainty about the veracity of the figures.”

Where does all of this leave us? Most likely in the same grinding range we have been in for the past three months. At 1.2000 EUR/USD looks to be a buy at 1.2400 it’s a sell. Until the market finds a new theme that appears to be most likely scenario.

The front of the week is absolutely empty and we will have to wait until Thursday’s Trade Balance and Fridays Retail Sakes to see if further greenback weakness is due.

...more...

Currency Focus: Dollar Strength Seen In Better Than Expected Unemployment

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4051&Itemid=62

After faltering on negative releases yesterday, the dollar strengthened this morning, gaining against the euro and the Japanese yen. Just before noon EDT, the euro was trading down against the dollar at 1.2118 and the yen is down at 113.79.


There was a good deal of economic data released this morning, unemployment rate, manufacturing payrolls, hourly earnings, weekly hours, all coming in close to as expected. The strengthening of the dollar was spurred by the much awaited change in non-farm payrolls release right before the opening of the US markets. The US lost 35,000 jobs in September as opposed to the predicted 150,000 jobs. Being as the September number should be reflecting most of the losses from Hurricane Katrina, the number indicates that damage to the economy was not as severe as originally thought and that jobs across the rest of the country are continuing to grow at a healthy rate. This positive news also indicates that the Fed will be able to continue in its policy of raising rates.

The equities markets were modestly higher for the morning after the positive non-farm payroll announcement. The Dow Jones is up 9.16 points to 10296.39 after posting its lowest close since early July in the last session. The S&P 500 is up 2 points to 1193.49 and the NASDAQ is up 1.75 to 2085.83. Merck was one of the heaviest gainers on the Dow today, up 2.2% to $27.42 on hopes that its new cervical cancer vaccine will give its earnings a much needed boost amidst the vioxx trials. Blockbuster shares also gained, picking up 16.63% to trade at $5.19 on news that it expects to be in compliance with its debt covenants for the third quarter indicating its earnings are improving. On the other end, Delphi Corporation, the auto-parts maker, dropped over 30% to trade at $1.52 on news that it could file for Chapter 11 as soon as today. Telecom equipment maker, UTStarcom also lost over 25% trading at $5.66 after the company announced a cut to its third quarter revenue forecast and that it had been notified of and is cooperating with a formal inquiry by the Securities and Exchange Commission into its previous financial disclosures.

...more...

[Changenow]

10. There you have it.

All is well, the data says so.

[UpInArms]

9. China Sept. Trade Surplus Likely Topped $10 Billion

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=apK.cxmYaB.U&refer=asia

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus in September was probably more than $10 billion for the third straight month, putting it on course to more than triple to a record $100 billion this year.

The monthly surplus was little changed at $10.3 billion from a revised $10.6 billion in August and more than double the $5.03 billion reported a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The government may release the report this week.

The ballooning surplus is fuelling friction with the U.S., Europe and Brazil, which are imposing tariffs and quotas on an increasing number of Chinese-made goods. U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow last week said he would push China's leaders to allow the yuan to move more freely when he visits the country on Oct. 11 to Oct. 16. A further revaluation of the yuan won't help narrow China's surging deficit with America, economists said.

``China's trade surplus has become a structural feature of the economy, so while political pressure may grow, the economic argument for a stronger yuan is weak,'' said Tim Condon, an economist at ING Bank in Singapore. ``Chinese producers will remain competitive in a wide range of manufactured products for some time.''

...more...

[UpInArms]

44. Greenspan leans on Chinese to avert trade war

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13132-1817119,00.html

IT TAKES a lot to get Alan Greenspan on an airplane these days. He has enough to do at home: tend to the economy, develop monetary policy that can cope with the profligate fiscal policy concocted by the president and the Congress; and begin packing up so that he can be out of the door when his term as Federal Reserve Board chairman expires at the end of January. But this week he is off to Beijing.

The Treasury was scheduled to deliver a report to Congress this month in which it would have to decide whether to name China as a currency manipulator.

Since it is clear to everyone that China is artificially depressing the value of its yuan, this presents Treasury secretary John Snow with a problem. If he brands China as a currency manipulator, he will face calls for action from congressmen who have been demanding a 27.5% tariff on all imports from China — their estimate of the extent of the undervaluation of the yuan.

With the trade deficit set to rise to more than 6% of GDP — for some reason considered by experts to be unsustainable — support for a restriction on imports from China would then gather force. Indeed, President George Bush has already been forced to bow to protectionist pressure by limiting imports of some clothes made in China.

<snip>

My own guess is that Bush is gambling that the Fed chairman’s prestige, endorsing a statement that things are moving in the right direction, and saying that the deficit has multiple causes in addition to the undervaluation of the yuan, will head off Draconian protectionist measures, something that reassurances by Snow alone could not accomplish.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Delphi CEO sees major job cuts: WSJ

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-10T121649Z_01_ROB019180_RTRUKOC_0_US-AUTO-DELPHI.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Delphi Corp. (DPH.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the U.S. auto-parts supplier that filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Saturday, plans to shut down or sell off a substantial part of its U.S. operations, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.

But Delphi Chief Executive Robert "Steve" Miller told the Journal in an interview he was not sure if the company would ask the U.S. government to take over its pension obligations.

Miller said Delphi's troubles would require the company to divest, consolidate or close "a substantial segment" of its 45 manufacturing sites in the U.S. and Canada, which employ 49,000 workers.

He said he also plans to renegotiate the contracts and retirement plans of Delphi's 33,000 union workers and 12,000 retirees, the paper reported.

In its filing, Troy, Michigan-based Delphi did not detail which or how many U.S. plants it hopes to get rid of. The company previously identified 11 U.S. plants that were unprofitable and could be closed or sold.

The filing in bankruptcy court is the latest sign that the U.S. auto industry's unionized workers face painful restructuring efforts forced on airline and steel workers amid bankruptcies in those industries, the Journal said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Delphi collapse fuels CDO risk - analysts

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-10-10T103812Z_01_L10502606_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-DERIVATIVES-DELPHI.XML

LONDON, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Delphi Corp's bankruptcy filing on Saturday may lead to losses in the highly-leveraged market for collateralised debt obligations (CDO), analysts say, because the troubled U.S. auto supplier is referenced in more than half of such structures.

Synthetic CDOs are portfolios of credit default swaps, or insurances against non-payment of corporate debt, that can be sliced into tranches to enable investors to take large risks for a small upfront cost.

Delphi <DPH.N>, which was rated investment grade as little as seven months ago, can be found in some 55 percent of CDOs rated by Standard & Poor's, while General Motors <GM.N>, its former parent, appears in 80 percent. As the companies' problems worsen, the potential for a credit derivative crisis rises.

"The worst case scenario could be a severe unwinding like we saw earlier this year," said Mehernosh Engineer, a CDO analyst at BNP Paribas. "The extent of the damage probably depends on how the Delphi bankruptcy effects General Motors."

Analysts have warned that the CDO market is highly vulnerable to defaults, because the structures are tied to a small and troubled group of borrowers.

If just one of the most commonly referenced companies defaults, Standard & Poor's says, some 47 percent of CDO ratings would warrant a downgrade, with an average drop of 2.5 notches.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Delphi's bonds fall 6 percentage points --trader

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-10T134438Z_01_N10378412_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-DELPHI-BONDS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Bonds of Delphi Corp. (DPH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) were quoted 6 percentage points lower in over-the-counter trading on Monday after the auto supplier filed for bankruptcy protection on Saturday, a trader said.

Delphi's bonds with a 6.55 percent coupon due in 2006 were bid at 58 cents on the dollar and offered at 60 cents after being bid at 64 cents and offered at 65 cents on Friday, a distressed debt trader said.

Trading was slow with the bond markets officially closed for the Columbus Day holiday, though more active trading is expected on Tuesday.

[UpInArms]

58. S&P cuts Delphi's debt ratings to default

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-10T173451Z_01_WNA9875_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-DELPHI-S-P-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Monday cut its ratings on Delphi Corp. to "D" or default after the company's U.S. operations filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Delphi has total debt of about $6 billion and total unfunded retiree benefit and pension obligations of about $14.5 billion, S&P said.

[UpInArms]

25. Run over: Delphi may cost GM $11B (yes, that's BILLION - with a "B")

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/10/news/fortune500/delphi_bankruptcy/

NEW YORK, (CNN/Money) - The bankruptcy by auto parts maker Delphi Corp. could mean an $11 billion hit to its former parent General Motors Corp., according to the automaker, and thousands of job cuts at Delphi's North American parts plants.

GM (Research) issued a statement late Saturday estimating its liabilities from the Delphi (Research) bankruptcy filing at as much as $11 billion, due to contract obligations to United Auto Workers members at its former parts unit. That's because the bankruptcy came less than eight years after GM spun off Delphi in 1999.

Still, GM spokeswoman Toni Simonetti told the Detroit News Sunday that the $11 billion figure was a "worst-case scenario."

But GM said it could also see some advantages, as it estimated it is paying Delphi, its largest supplier of parts, a premium of $2 billion annually for those parts above market prices.

"GM believes that a restructuring of Delphi through the Chapter 11 process provides it with an opportunity to reduce or eliminate that purchase price premium, over time, as well as improve the quality of systems, components and parts it procures," GM said in its statement.

...more...

What a great opportunity! :crazy:

[UpInArms]

43. Will GM follow Delphi into bankruptcy?

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/10/news/fortune500/gm_outlook/

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) – The chances that General Motors will have to file for bankruptcy are now up to about 30 percent, according to one industry analyst, following the bankruptcy filing by the company's former parts unit, Delphi.

The Banc of America Securities analyst, Rod Tadross, estimated that GM's retirement liabilities are now up to about $6 a share, as the automaker warned it could be on the hook for up to $11 billion in contract obligations to its former employees at Delphi.

GM spun-off the world's largest auto-parts maker in 1999, but retained responsibility for some of the retirement health and pension benefits if Delphi filed for bankruptcy before 2007.

...more...

[UpInArms]

57. S&P cuts GM's ratings deeper into junk status

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-10T174346Z_01_WNA9876_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-S-P-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Monday cut its ratings on General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) deeper into junk status, citing the bankruptcy filing of GM's largest supplier, Delphi Corp. (DPH.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

The rating downgrade could further hamper GM's access to funding, which was already hurt when S&P first downgraded the world's largest automaker to junk status in May.

Delphi's bankruptcy could impede GM's efforts to turn around its ailing North American vehicle operations, S&P said in a statement. GM will likely face demands from Delphi for price relief and is also exposed to the risk of supply disruptions caused by labor strife at Delphi as the parts supplier downsizes its work force, S&P said.

GM's troubles have worsened in recent weeks after two hurricanes drove gasoline prices over $3 a gallon, curbing demand for the automaker's profitable SUVs. GM posted a 24 percent drop in vehicle sales in September, with sales of SUVs and trucks off 30 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

54. Delphi Layoffs

http://www.wilx.com/news/headlines/1770061.html

One of General Motors largest suppliers files for bankruptcy, Delphi filed Saturday.

The announcement comes just one day after boosting severance packages for 21 top executives. Some auto analysts say Delphi's bankruptcy could increase pressure to produce cheaper auto parts overseas and force cuts in wages and benefits.

GM says they do not expect the bankruptcy will have any immediate effect on its global automotive operations. Delphi has plants across Michigan including Adrian, Flint, Grand Rapids and Saginaw.

Company officials say they hope to emerge from bankruptcy in 2007.

...short blurb...

[UpInArms]

12. US growth outlook cut

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-10T112332Z_01_ROB015776_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-USA-SURVEY.xml

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Top forecasters cut their outlook for U.S. growth and ramped up inflation expectations for the second half of 2005, but said the impact of hurricanes Katrina and Rita should prove short-lived, a survey released on Monday showed.

The Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter said "a large majority" of economists polled this month are convinced the economy is unlikely to dip much below its trend rate over the next five quarters, despite the storms' devastation.

"Even with the added burden of Hurricane Rita, most analysts believe the effects of the hurricanes will prove to be transitory -- producing a temporary slowing of economic activity offset over time by clean-up and rebuilding efforts," Blue Chip said.

The consensus forecast for third-quarter gross domestic product growth was cut to a 3.4 percent annual rate from 3.6 percent a month ago, while the fourth-quarter outlook was trimmed to 2.9 percent from 3.0 percent.

But the forecast for growth in 2005 as a whole was unchanged at 3.5 percent, and the 2006 outlook was pushed up to 3.3 percent from 3.2 percent predicted a month ago. Economists bet rebuilding from the hurricanes and resilient business and consumer spending would offset the storm impact in the longer term.

The survey was taken on October 3 and 4, more than a month after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast and not quite two weeks after Rita came ashore.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Northrop cuts 2005 forecast on hurricane impact

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38635.3707133796-845468990&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

LONDON (Marketwatch) -- Defense company Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) said Hurricanes Katrina and Rita will result in a 25-to-30-cents-a-share charge in the third quarter and that repairs will cost approximately $1 billion. The company lowered its guidance for 2005 earnings to the range of $3.55 to $3.65 a share on revenue of between $30.5 billion and $31 billion compared to a prior outlook of between $3.90 and $4 a share on revenue of $31 billion to $31.5 billion. Northrop said it sees a total hurricane impact on 2005 earnings of 40 cents a share, with work delays accounting for 8 cents of that total. The company said it foresees 2006 earnings in the range of $4.10 to $4.30 a share on revenue of $32 billion. Northrop said hurricanes will not damage its overall financial health.

[ozymandius]

16. pre-open blather

9:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. The stage remains set for a higher open... After 2.7% losses in both the Dow and S&P last week, as well as a 2.9% decline in the Nasdaq, traders have found reason to reinitiate buying action as they perhaps eye bargains. Aside from an upbeat sentiment heading into earnings season, pullbacks in both crude oil (-$0.22 $61.62) and gasoline (-$0.0092 $1.8200) have helped bolster early trading.

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Futures trade continues to suggest a higher start for stocks today, as investors direct their attention toward the onset of the third quarter earnings season that commences after today's close. Beginning with Alcoa's (AA), 23 S&P 500 components will deliver reports this week; in aggregate, earnings are expected to increase 15% over Q3, up from a 12% rise in Q2.

[UpInArms]

17. 9:54 EST not certain about owning stocks on Mondays

Dow 10,293.99 +1.68 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,086.61 -3.74 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,193.35 -2.55 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.361 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 181,283,000
Nasdaq Volume 152,331,000

[UpInArms]

20. 10:04 EST now certain - don't own stocks on Mondays

Dow 10,264.04 -28.27 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,081.55 -8.80 (-0.42%)
S&P 500 1,189.65 -6.25 (-0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.361 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 254,507,000
Nasdaq Volume 209,645,000

10:05AM: Each of the indices presently sit below the unchanged mark, as continued selling pressure within the Energy sector (-1.5%) and an absence of sector leadership - ten of ten are in the red - stunts buying efforts. All of Energy's 29 constituents have chalked early losses, with refiners (-1.5%) faring worst and placing sixth on the S&P's top ten laggard list. A sector downgrade, to Underweight from Market Perform at Citigroup, alongside extensions of respective 7% and 28% drops in crude and gasoline last week have given traders further reason to lock in some of Energy's 29.9% year-to-date profit. NYSE Adv/Dec 1252/1439, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1084/1286

9:45AM: The cash market opened in flat fashion, as focus upon the Delphi (DPH 0.58 -0.54) backruptcy may have impacted early trading momentum. While the filing comes as little surprise, the auto industry's largest-ever bankruptcy has sent General Motors (GM 27.09 -1.20) shares plunging 4.2% as several analysts issue downgrades; in addition, Bank of America raised the odds of GM's bankruptcy filing to 30% from 10%...

Although earnings season begins with Alcoa's post-bell report, the heavy stream does not begin until next week, and earnings season rallies typically do not start until well into the reports. As such, this week may well bring a wait and see attitude despite the fact that aggregate earning are expected to grow 15%.

9:14AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5.

[ozymandius]

21. Perhaps the sentiment has flipped.

I'm thinking that nowadays investors would rather hold stocks over the weekend and dump them during the week.

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

19. Dana to restate 2004, 2005 earnings

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-10T121736Z_01_BAU044237_RTRUKOC_0_US-AUTOS-DANA.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Dana Corp. (DCN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it will restate earnings for 2004 and the first half of 2005, and delay posting third-quarter 2005 earnings, citing incorrect accounting in areas including transactions with suppliers in its commercial vehicle business.

The company said it believes it has found material weaknesses in its internal controls with respect to financial reporting, and is still investigating its accounting.

The company also said it will likely have to write off its U.S. deferred tax assets, which will cut into net income.

[UpInArms]

27. Dana delays results; shares slammed

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B061A1C8C%2D2279%2D4EFE%2DB468%2D18E1A9CF6E2A%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Dana Corp., adding to a grim drumbeat of bad news for the U.S. auto-parts industry, said Monday it will restate some financial results because of improper accounting, a disclosure that resulted in the value of its shares being cut by as much as one-third.

In recent trading, Dana's stock shed $2.24 to $6.95, down 24.4%, while shares of Delphi Corp. (DPH: news, chart, profile) , the nation's largest parts supplier, lost half their value after the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from creditors over the weekend. See full story.

Dana (DCN: news, chart, profile) said it will restate its financial results for fiscal 2004 and the first half of fiscal 2005 because the company failed to properly account for issues involving customer pricing and transactions with suppliers in its commercial-vehicle business.

The Toledo, Ohio-based auto-parts maker will also delay the release of third-quarter financial results, originally scheduled for Oct. 19.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Gold prices tap 18-year high, pull back ($480 oz)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B55625D57%2D2812%2D442D%2DAE36%2DC939CC8C7CCC%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed close to $480 an ounce, the highest price seen in nearly 18 years, but then pulled back Monday, while silver prices traded at their loftiest level in 10 months and copper rose to a record above $1.82 a pound.

Investors gauged the likelihood of $500 gold prices as supply-and-demand issues drove silver and copper higher.

"Investors would probably be best served by just watching rather than buying" gold, said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.

A per-ounce price of "$500 is making a good story, but it might not happen this week," he said in recent newsletter.

Gold for December delivery briefly touched $479.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange before falling back by 30 cents to stand at $477.40 an ounce.

...more...

[UpInArms]

56. Gold futures end modestly higher at 18-year high ($478 oz)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38635.5781204514-845478376&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed slightly higher Monday to mark their highest ending price since December 1987, according to monthly charts. December gold closed up 30 cents at $478 an ounce in New York. Mining and metals continue to wrestle with "severe inflation/growth jitters," as well as "supportive underlying commodity fundamentals," said Citigroup Analyst John Hill. December silver closed at a 10-month high of $7.845 an ounce, up 7.5 cents and December copper touched a record $1.8225 a pound before closing down 0.25 cent at $1.806.

1:42pm 10/10/05 GOLD FUTURES CLOSE AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE DEC 1987

1:42pm 10/10/05 DEC GOLD CLOSES AT $478/OZ, UP 30C AFTER $479.60 HIGH

[UpInArms]

26. Refco puts CEO on leave over debt

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=1199599

Oct 10, 2005 — NEW YORK (Reuters) - Refco Inc. <RFX.N> on Monday said it placed its chief executive on leave after the discovery of his involvement in a $430 million debt rendered years of financial statements unreliable, sending its shares down 34 percent.

The company, which went public in August and is one of the world's largest and most powerful commodities dealers, also said it would probably delay filing its 10-Q quarterly financial statement with securities regulators for the quarter ended August 31.

Refco said it asked CEO Phillip Bennett, who is also chairman, to take the leave of absence after discovering a receivable of about $430 million owed by an entity he controlled. The debt has since been repaid with interest.

<snip>

But given the way the debt was accounted for, Refco said it determined that financial statements for 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 are not reliable.

The broker said it cannot estimate when its 10-Q filing will be made or when the audit committee will finish its investigation.

<snip>

Refco said it believes all customer funds on deposit are unaffected by the issues surrounding the receivable.

...more...

[UpInArms]

38. Refco tumbles as CEO asked to take leave of absence

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38635.4676864236-845473680&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Refco Inc. (RFX) tumbled 30% after the brokerage firm said it asked its chairman and chief executive to take a leave of absence after discovering that it was owed $430 million by an entity controlled by Bennett. The company determined that prior financial statements for the fiscal years ending 2002 through 2005 and for May 205 should not be relied on. The company added that its Refco Group and Refco Finance units will likely have to delay the filing of their respective quarterly reports. The stock was last down $8.61 at $19.90.

[UpInArms]

50. Refco (Derivatives Trading Firm) down 33% after post-IPO rally

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B89C01E90%2D66B8%2D483C%2D994F%2DF276767BF5ED%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Refco Inc. shares fell as much as 39% on Monday after the derivatives trading firm said it'll delay an upcoming financial report amid an audit committee investigation that resulted in the company's chief executive taking a leave of absence and a repayment of $430 million to the company.

Refco (RFX: news, chart, profile) said the receivable from an entity controlled by Chairman and CEO Phillip Bennett was reflected in financial statements for the years 2002-2004, as well as the first two quarters in the 2005 calendar year.

Taken as a whole, the statements "should no longer be relied upon," Refco said.

In light of the audit committee probe, units Refco Group Ltd. LLC and Refco Finance Inc. "each will likely delay" the filing of their quarterly reports, the parent said.

Shares of Refco fell $9.32, or 32.6%, to $19.24 in midday trading. At their low for the session, the shares changed hands at $17.50.

<snip>

The big stock drop marks a reversal of fortunes for Refco, which debuted its initial public offering at $22 a share in early August to keen investor interest. Refco raised $583 million in its IPO.

The stock hit a high of $30.55 on Sept. 7 and hadn't traded below $26 since the IPO.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. NASD FINES EIGHT FIRMS $7.75 MLN-PLUS FOR DIRECTED BROKERAGE

10:32am 10/10/05 NASD FINES EIGHT FIRMS $7.75 MLN-PLUS FOR DIRECTED BROKERAGE

(will post more info when available)

[UpInArms]

33. here's the poop

NASD fines eight firms for directed brokerage

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38635.460727963-845473456&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - The National Association of Securities Dealers Monday said it has fined eight broker-dealers - including seven retail firms and one mutual-fund distributor - more than $7.75 million for directed brokerage violations. The sanctions are the latest actions stemming from an NASD enforcement sweep focusing on the receipt or payment of directed brokerage in exchange for preferential treatment for certain mutual fund companies. All cases involved violations of NASD's Anti-Reciprocal Rule, which bans firms from favoring the sale of shares of mutual funds based on brokerage commissions received by the firm. Among other things, the rule prohibits a firm from recommending funds or establishing preferred lists of funds in exchange for receipt of directed brokerage. Fined were: IFC Holdings Inc., Commonwealth Financial Network, National Planning Corp., Mutual Service Corp. , Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp., SII Investments Inc., Investment Centers of America Inc. and Lord Abbett Distributor LLC.

Just looking out for the consumer's "best interests" - yeah, right. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

29. Dominion Homes down 13% after earnings warning (sound of bubble popping?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38635.4537423727-845473102&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Dominion Homes Inc. (DHOM) lost as much as 13% to $12.62 in early dealings Monday after the company said late Friday that third-quarter sales dropped 28% from last year, prompting it to warn that earnings would be lower than analyst expectations. One analyst surveyed by Thomson First Call forecasts earnings of 38 cents a share. Dominion Homes also said the sales value of homes sold during the third quarter fell by 25%.

[Zynx]

31. The real estate bubble may already have popped and we just don't know it

Problem is that our data collection methods on housing aren't particularly good and the data often times are extremely dated.

[ozymandius]

34. YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED SOME CHANGES TO THE THREAD.

Per request, I added more information reflective of 1/22/01 when Bust was sworn into office. I also added a chart for natural gas closing prices.

To find the closing price for oil (sweet light crude) was a difficult task. The data that I found was spotty. If you have a different figure from a verifiable source, please forward that info to me.

If you run across smaller charts - either in pixel or memory size - would you please bring them to my attention? I want the thread to be as navigable as possible to those, like me at home, who use a dialup connection. The easiest way to be dialup friendly, IMO, is to lighten then graphics load.

Please offer any suggestions that you think would make this thread more useful. I'll be happy to oblige.

best,

ozy :hi:

[Cronus Protagonist]

39. I have a suggestion

There's nothing "Greatest" about this thread, so please don't recommend it unless there's something truly great going on - chicken licken and all that :)

[Coexist]

40. I think that each user decides for him/herself what is "Greatest"

FWIW - I happen to view this thread every day, and it is very convenient to be able to find it on the Greatest page.

The information on this thread is always Great!

[Cronus Protagonist]

41. It's on the "Greatest" list every day

All I was asking was that if you want to nominate it, make sure it IS great before doing so... Nominating it so it's "convenient" for you may be convenient for you, but it's misleading for the rest of us who click into the thread, expecting something "great", only to find nothing more than the usual, ordinary stuff.

As I mentioned, doing this every day will make sure no one reads the thread when the stock market is crashing or there is something actually worth noting.

It was just a suggestion, feel free to ignore it.

:)

[Nickster]

53. I love the addition of the nat gas prices. Thanks so much.

[UpInArms]

35. 11:08 EST catching an eleven o'clock bounce?

Dow 10,293.99 +1.68 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,088.12 -2.23 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,193.54 -2.36 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.361 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 645,608,000
Nasdaq Volume 468,308,000

(adding blather on edit)

11:00AM: Vacillating below the flat line, the major indices continue to trade on negative turf amid a lack of leadership. Amongst the laggards is the Technology sector, which presently posts a 0.4% loss as it faces the pressures of semiconductors' 1.7% dip and a 6.4% slide in its IT construction and services group that comes on the heels of Unisys' (UIS 6.39 -0.44) profit warning. This morning, the company lowered its Q3 forecast to a loss of $0.05-0.07, from a loss of $0.02-0.04 (consensus -$0.02), on revenues of $1.37-1.39 bln (consensus $1.5 bln ). Limiting the downside, though, are the effects of IBM's (IBM 81.83 +1.33) upgrade - to Buy from Hold at Citigroup - and Dell's (DELL 32.88 +0.80) upgrade - to Strong Buy from Buy at Needham - as well as Dell's favorable mention in Barron's.NYSE Adv/Dec 1027/1892, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1027/1660

10:30AM: The market's major averages continue to tread negative water. Languishing General Motors (GM 27.07 -1.22) shares weigh heavily upon the overall market, while the prolonged profit taking in Energy issues that has sliced about 1% off of Exxon Mobil (XOM 59.02 -0.58) shares further inhibits traction...

[UpInArms]

42. U.S. bond market closed for holiday

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B62EE3945%2D8E49%2D47F6%2DA702%2DB94B6666D383%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - U.S. bond trading was closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday and will resume Tuesday.

The U.S. government was also shuttered in observance of the holiday, with the bulk of potentially market-moving economic reports, including consumer prices and retail sales, not scheduled for release until late in the week. See Economic Calendar and Forecasts.

Bond traders will return Tuesday to the afternoon release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's Sept. 20 interest-rate meeting.

The minutes are widely expected to show that most members are worried that inflation, fueled by higher energy prices in particular, remains the greater risk the economy post-hurricanes. See Economic Preview.

...more...

[ozymandius]

45. lunchtime check in - a glimmer of a positive note

12:12
Dow 10,294.96 +2.65 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,086.95 -3.40 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,192.34 -3.56 (-0.30%)

NYSE Volume 904,195,000
Nasdaq Volume 643,069,000

[ozymandius]

46. blather

11:30AM: Healthcare has recently climbed out of the red, boosted by a 2.4% jump in Merck (MRK) that, at the same time, has helped push the Dow towards the unchanged mark. The S&P and Nasdaq, though, maintain their negative footing...
For it part, the drug giant has attracted buyers after Barron's reported that plan manager Express Scripts (ESRX 61.67 -0.62) will drop Pfizer's (PFE 24.42 +0.03) Lipitor from its list of preferred drugs that it promotes to its clients - in favor of generic versions of Merck's Zocor. Relative weakness in healthcare distributors (i.e., CAH, ABC) and suppliers (i.e., BOL), have, however, offset much of the gain Merck leverages. NYSE Adv/Dec 1189/1770, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1123/1591

[UpInArms]

49. noon blather

12:05PM: Hovering around the flat line, the market's major averages' upward efforts have been capped by the Delphi bankruptcy effect (DPH 0.48 -0.64) and by a lack of leadership amid what appears to be a wait-and-see stance ahead of the Q3 earnings season that is set to officially commence after today's close with Alcoa's (AA 22.97 -0.07) report. Extending 2.7% declines in both the Dow and S&P and a 2.9% dip in the Nasdaq last week, the inflation-flustered market has not yet shifted its focus to the fact that Q3 aggregate earnings are expected to rise 15%, as only 23 of the S&P's 500 constituents are slated to report this week. With respect to sector performance, eight of ten remain submerged - with Energy (-2.1%) leading the way lower on account of prolonged profit taking that a sector downgrade, to Underweight from Market Weight at Citigroup, has exacerbated. After plunging 28% last week, gasoline futures continue to pullback, as crude - which lost 7% last week - and natural gas also tick further downward. Utilities, the second-best year-to-date performer, similarly continues to suffer from traders' attempts to lock in gains. An article in the Wall Street Journal that highlighted the effect of rising interest rates on utilities issues has perhaps made matters worse today. The Tech sector (0.6%) sits on the laggard list, challenged by semiconductors' 2.1% dip following a Q2 sales warning from Xilinx (XLNX 23.07 -4.05) and a 6.4% slide in its IT construction and services group that comes on the heels of Unisys' (UIS 6.39 -0.44) profit warning. Limiting the downside, though, are the effects of IBM's (IBM 81.91 +1.41) upgrade - to Buy from Hold at Citigroup - and Dell's (DELL 32.77+0.69) upgrade - to Strong Buy from Buy at Needham - as well as Dell's favorable mention in Barron's. Facing General Motors' (GM 27.05 -1.24) plunge, which comes on the heels of Delphi's bankruptcy filing and subsequent analyst downgrade, the Consumer Discretionary sector (-0.5%) also trends negative. Easing energy prices as well as in rising Home Depot (HD 38.52 +0.72) and eBay (EBAY 40.85 +0.95) shares, have, however, helped offset the Delphi effect upon the sector. For their parts, HD and EBAY each received favorable mentions in Barron's, and positive analyst comments on the latter have added to its bounce. The auto giant is the Dow's biggest drag, but strength in Wal-Mart (WMT 44.81 +0.78) has helped counter it while also pushing the Consumer Staples sector (+0.2%) into positive territory. Aside from reporting that its Sept. same store sales grew 3.8% - in line with its preannouncement as well as with its long-term +2-4% target, the retail giant reaffirmed its Q3 EPS guidance this morning. Further to its benefit, Barron's featured a positive write up that suggested shares are a value at current price levels. Joining the sector on positive turf is Healthcare, which climbed out of the red through Merck's (MRK 26.61 +0.76) jump that, at the same time, has helped support the Dow. The drug giant has attracted buyers after Barron's reported that plan manager Express Scripts (ESRX 61.12 -0.17) will drop Pfizer's (PFE 24.41 +0.02) Lipitor from its list of preferred drugs in favor of generic versions of Merck's Zocor. Relative weakness in healthcare distributors (i.e., CAH, ABC) and suppliers (i.e., BOL), have, however, offset much of the gain Merck leverages.NYSE Adv/Dec 1087/1923, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1095/1669

[UpInArms]

47. that shiny coin bumps heads again :)

[ozymandius]

51. yes...yes

synchronicity is a wonderous thing ain't it?

[Doctor_J]

48. DJIA tracking Smirk's approval ratings

As Randolph Duke once said, "Get in there and sell, SELL"!

[ozymandius]

52. This is a dizzying exercise.

Especially when the infomation influencing each rating is assymetrical.

[ozone_man]

68. Hard to know which is the leading indicator

I think it is the economy. People tend to know what the real state of the economy is (of course there's the war). Bush will go down as the economy and the market sink. IMO, 2006 is shaping up to be a bad year for Republicans.

[ozymandius]

55. 1:45 numbers and blather

Dow 10,300.23 +7.92 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,089.13 -1.22 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,193.05 -2.85 (-0.24%)

NYSE Volume 1,220,924,000
Nasdaq Volume 863,587,000

1:30PM: The indices return to trading in flat, mixed fashion - with the Dow sill on positive turf while the Nasdaq and S&P stand negative. While sector-standing remains relatively static, the Financial sector (+0.1%) has popped onto gaining ground as American International Group (AIG) notches a fresh session high, and amid brokers' recovery. In particular, Goldman Sachs (GS 119.27 +1.70) extends a 1.5% gain, effectively offsetting a 1.2% loss in Schwab shares (SCH 13.80 -0.17), which represents the group's weakest spot, and adding to brokers' 3.6% year-to-date gain. Along with life and health insurers (+13.6%), investment banks (+7.4%), specialized financial services (+7.4%), property and casualty insurers (+5.8%), and REITs (+1.2%), brokers remain one of the Financial sector's positive performers this year.NYSE Adv/Dec 1232/1884, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1277/1579

[UpInArms]

59. 2:17 EST going down the rabbit hole

Dow 10,273.42 -18.89 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,083.32 -7.03 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 1,190.15 -5.75 (-0.48%)

NYSE Volume 1,341,685,000
Nasdaq Volume 949,023,000

2:00PM: Running around the unchanged mark, the market lacks vigor and holds the indices underwater. Although the price of crude is at its session low of $60.55/bbl, off 2.1% on the day and extending last week's 7% drop, and while gasoline and natural gas are also heading south, traders have not seemed to have found reason to reignite buying activity. At the same time, the absence of a fresh catalyst keeps sellers similarly at the sidelines and overall action stunted. Traders' stance is likely a result of pre-earnings season caution, as Alcoa's (AA) after hours report marks the unofficial onset. Genentech (DNA) will accompany AA this evening, while tomorrow's earnings calendar features Gannett (GCI), Advanced Micro (AMD), and Apple Computers (AAPL). This week, though, investors will have just 23 of the S&P's 500 reports with which to contend, with the bulk slated for next week.NYSE Adv/Dec 1221/1926, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1264/1594

[UpInArms]

61. Ford North America executives to leave company

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38635.6396836458-845480623&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Phil Martens and Matt DeMars, two vice presidents at Ford Motor's struggling North American operations, have indicated they will leave the automaker, the company said Monday. A Ford spokesman declined to specify when they might leave. Shares of Ford (F) lost 3.1% to $8.94 in afternoon trading. Ford's North American auto division reported a loss of $907 million in the second quarter, vs. a profit of $454 million in the year-earlier period. "Bill Ford and Mark Fields have made an assesment of the management team in the Americas, and we expect they'll review certain leadership changes with our board in the very near future," a Ford spokesman said.

[UpInArms]

62. 3:27 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,253.17 -39.14 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,080.43 -9.92 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,188.50 -7.40 (-0.62%)

NYSE Volume 1,791,023,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,175,367,000

3:00PM: The market's majors continue to wilt, reflecting a bearish bias that also keeps each of the ten economic sectors below the flat line. With the Treasury market closed for Columbus Day, and with the day's docket offering no economic data, traders head into the the after hours session with sellers dominating and earnings-related caution prevailing. While sector standing has not much changed, the Utilities sector has recently surpassed Energy's loss, now down 1.8% on the day amid wide-spread selling pressure that has left 33 of the sector's 33 issues in the red.

2:30PM: The indices fade and carve out fresh session lows. General Motors (GM 26.05 -2.24) continues to plunge, and the Dow component's 7.9% Delphi-induced decline serves as one of the overall market's biggest impediment. While pullbacks across the energy complex have not been enough to send the market towards sustainable gains today, they have impacted trading. As the price of crude bounces sharply off the lows of the day, and now sports a $61.60/bbl pricetag, sellers gain steam. At the same time, the profit taking within the Energy sector has not been intrrupted, and its 2.0% decline - on top of the approximate 8% lost last week - spearheads the market's trek south. NYSE Adv/Dec 1096/2066, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1193/1704

[JNelson6563]

63. Hard to spin hay into gold today

with things looking grimmer and grimmer. Of course gold itself is looking good. Things could be worse. At least China hasn't asked to cash in their Treasuries. Yet.

Great thread today Marketeers, as always I gave it my vote for the Greatest page.

:toast:

Julie

[Tace]

64. Gold is at a major top (Expects Pullback To $425 Before More Up)

Today's commentary will no doubt raise a few eyebrows, and possibly incite a few gold bugs to send me hate mails. It is not my intention to be controversial, in fact, I've been on the gold bull bandwagon since 2001 and like many others, believe we are still at the early stage of a generational gold bull market. However, I've made some observations in the past four years while trading the gold market, and today I would like to share some of these with you.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan101005.html

[ozymandius]

65. closing numbers

Dow 10,238.76 -53.55 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,078.92 -11.43 (-0.55%)
S&P 500 1,187.33 -8.57 (-0.72%)

NYSE Volume 2,191,580,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,379,234,000

Bond market reopens tomorrow.

blather still to come

[ozymandius]

67. blather

Have a great evening folks!

ozy :hi:

4:20PM: Fading after lunch, the market's major averages' finished at solidly negative session lows, sunken by the Delphi (DPH 0.38 -0.74) bankruptcy effect and by an altogether lack of leadership amid what appears to be a wait-and-see stance ahead of the Q3 earnings season that officially begins with Alcoa's (AA 22.72 -0.32) post-bell report. Extending 2.7% declines in both the Dow and S&P and a 2.9% dip in the Nasdaq last week, the inflation-flustered market has not yet shifted its focus to the fact that Q3 aggregate earnings are expected still to rise 15%, an expectation that should ultimately provide support to the market. With respect to sector performance, all ten closed in the red - with Utilities (-1.6%) surpassing Energy (-1.4%), in terms of laggards, late in the day. As the second-best year-to-date performer, the Utilities sector suffered profit-taking attempts that left all of its 33 constituents underwater, most of which posted losses in excess of 1.0%. An article in the Wall Street Journal that highlighted the effect of rising interest rates on utilities issues perhaps made matters worse. Prolonged profit taking, intensified by a sector downgrade to Underweight from Market Weight at Citigroup, as well as extended pullbacks in energy prices, defined trading within the Energy sector and added to the approximate 8% loss it chalked last week. After plunging 28% last week, gasoline futures eased further today, while crude - which lost 7% last week - and natural gas also continued to deteriorate. The Tech sector (0.8%) placed third on the laggard list, shoved below the flat line by semiconductors' 3.1% dip following a Q2 sales warning from Xilinx (XLNX 22.77 -4.35) and a 6.4% slide in the IT construction and services group that Unisys' (UIS 6.01 -0.82)...

[UpInArms]

66. Delphi bankruptcy may cause credit derivative woes

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-10T193458Z_01_N10401133_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-DELPHI-DERIVATIVES.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Delphi Corp.'s (DPH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) bankruptcy filing may create operational woes in the credit derivatives market because of the large volume of contracts based on its debt, analysts said.

The largest U.S. auto supplier filed for Chapter 11 protection in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York on Saturday. Delphi was ranked as investment grade as little as a year ago, before being downgraded to junk by Standard & Poor's on Dec. 21, 2004 and Moody's Investors Service on March 8.

Delphi's bankruptcy filing will be an operational challenge in the credit markets, said Ashish Shah, co-head of credit strategy at Lehman Brothers in New York. "This will be overhanging the market at a time when the market may also get more volatile," he said.

Delphi is one of the most active credit-default swaps due to the amount of single name protection traded on the auto supplier, as well as its presence in synthetic collateralized debt obligations and index trades. Synthetic CDOs pool credit default swaps, which insure against defaults on debt payments.

"The market has been through defaults before, however this is one of the most prolific," Shah said.

<snip>

Problems may arise in the possible disparity of settlement terms between the securities, said the analyst, who declined to be named. For example, if an investor settles an index contract with a protocol, but not a single name default swap, they may find that the recovery values differ and they have subsequently mishedged a trade, he said.

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