Globe: GOP leader fears backlash if Roe v. Wade is overturned

[JohnnyCougar]

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2005/11/17/gop_leader_fears_backlash_if_roe_v_wade_is_overturned/

By Nina Easton, Globe Staff | November 17, 2005

WASHINGTON -- The Republican lawmaker who helped guide the GOP to an expanded majority in the House three years ago warned yesterday that a Supreme Court ruling overturning a woman's legal right to an abortion -- a possibility if the high court shifts further to the right -- could hurt his party's political prospects and cause a ''sea change" in suburban voting habits.

Representative Tom Davis of Virginia, who chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee through the 2002 election, said that if the Supreme Court threw out Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling that established that abortion rights were protected by the Constitution, ''you're going to have a lot of very nervous suburban candidates."

<snip>

That's what worries Davis. ''It's nice to make a stand" against abortion, he said, when ''it's not a real bullet, it's more theoretical."

Republican pollster Linda DiVall said ''it would be very unlikely, in fact, historic" for any Supreme Court ruling to suddenly give Democrats a boost in swing districts, but controversial social issues such as abortion can hurt Republicans in politically moderate areas where the GOP is already on the defensive.

''When you talk about abortion, immigration, and stem cell research, the trinity of those issues can have an impact on the suburban vote, because the absolutists don't see shades of gray," she said.

The Republican party is over as we know it. They have totally overextended themselves. Rove is officially an idiot. What are they going to do? They just set the bar way to high for the Religious Right. They are going to displease one group or the other. Abortion should be the Democrats' wedge issue, not the Republicans.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

1. Overturning it will definitely hurt them.

And that's the one bright spot we'd see if it actually happened.

[salin]

2. more GOP historical illiteracy on display:

Republican pollster Linda DiVall said ''it would be very unlikely, in fact, historic" for any Supreme Court ruling to suddenly give Democrats a boost in swing districts, but controversial social issues such as abortion can hurt Republicans in politically moderate areas where the GOP is already on the defensive.

What do you think the thirty + year rant of "judicial activism" has been about? Remember the Warren court - civil rights rulings - shifts in voting in disticts in the south? Perhaps DiVall isn't ignorant as she carefully uses the words "swing districts" - and back then the districts in question weren't swing districts they were solidly dem/dixiecrat.

Second thought - save Davis's words for future reference - it along with the DeLay and Reed stories help illustrate the manipuluation of the religious right voters/donors - shows the farce...

[applegrove]

3. Yeah - the GOP leadership is putting on the brakes. If they get rid

of Roe vs. Wade - they cannot use it in elections along with "gayness" to control people by their reptilian fears with something honorable like "saving babies". They will just have to run a campaign on "Gay marriage" alone and that will look rather hateful and shallow.

[wakeme2008]

4. Dup of one in GDP but I will repeat what I have said before

he anti-choice fundies are a big voting block that ONLY votes on that issue... if RvW is overturned, will they get out and vote and if so for who.

the anti-choice fundies send tons of $$$$ to the Repugs...

the anti-choice fundies are major foot soldiers for doing Repug work around elections.

All in all the Repugs could lose Votes, Money and Free Help...

Future Sign

[mac56]

5. I've been saying for years it'll never happen.

RvW is red meat for their loyal following. They'd be fools to overturn it, and they know it.

[rodeodance]

6. you can bet their will be a backlash!!! I am glad to see them running

scared with this article. But, as we know, money speaks, and they have been know to do stupid things.

[DinahMoeHum]

10. Yep, RvW has been the RW golden goose. . .why kill it now. . .

when it means no more golden eggs?

:evilfrown:

[Thom Little]

7. At least one of them gets it

[union_maid]

8. They're just noticing this?

I've been saying this since the right started making headway in the abortion battle. I remember the pre-Roe days very well. Very few people pondered the morality of abortion so much as the logistics of it and the risks. Abortion was a freedom that people were glad to have even if they never had to take advantage of it. Not just women, either. Plenty of men are very glad when their girlfriends agreed to abortion.

I thought that the battles that would ensue in the states over abortion would rip the Republicans apart and send a lot of voters over to the Democrats. Bush is doing that with other issues anyway, it seems. But hey, if I knew it, how come they needed a pollster to tell them which way the wind was blowing?

[tanyev]

9. More proof that the people who run the party are just using the

religious right as hapless dupes. Now they are seeing there may be some consequences and are becoming alarmed. Cry me a river.

[Supersedeas]

18. But, if the social conservatives are that hapless, then duping's natural

[MountainLaurel]

11. He can bet his ass there'll be a "backlash"

:eyes:

[Strawman]

12. and that would be the real tragedy wouldn't it?

the backlash against Republicans.

Not the women in fundie dominated states who were forced to carry their rapists babies to term, not the women who would be potentially killed, maimed and possibly prosecuted from unsafe, illegal and sometimes self-induced abortions.

Fuck them is what this guy is saying. How would this affect Republican candidates in swing districts? Anything up to overturning Roe is ok, we don't care if a woman has to tell her abusive spouse she is having an abortion or any of the consequences to women as a result of that. Just another issue to be gamed for political benefit. That's all. No different than the deficit or flag burning.

And what a happy day for us Democrats that would be. Just think of all those votes! Woo hoo! :sarcasm:

[Auntie Bush]

13. I have always said that if the Repug overturn R vs. W that it will

insure their demise...ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY REALIZE JUST HOW MANY MILLIONS of dollars IT'S GOING TO ADD TO THE WELFARE BUDGET TO SUPPORT ALL THOSE MILLIONS OF UNWANTED BABIES THAT FAMILIES CAN'T AFFORD. When it hits them in the pocket...they will regret what
they have done..."Big Time. So I say "Bring it on"...defeat
R vs. W!!!!!!! Deserves them right!

[David__77]

14. Let's not be complacent about this...

I fear that too many people are smug (me included) in thinking that the overturn of Roe would cause a great political windfall for progressives. Yes, it would force the pro-reproductive rights people to the offensive and would make a number of GOP politicians squeamish. But there is a solid core in the ruling circles who are QUITE SERIOUS about a theocratic agenda--and they will use whatever means at their disposal to maintain and consolidate their power. Yes, abortion will be a negative for them, but they will simply concoct another "demon" with war and so on. These forces need to be politically fought at the most intense level.

[Strawman]

15. and let's not lose sight of the direct, terrible quality of life impacts

for women that would result from overturning or further limiting Roe by focusing on the political costs/benefits.

that outcome is intrinsically bad enough. we should be worried about that before we worry about what might come next. A line must be drawn right here.

[toopers]

16. Any attorneys out there?

I have always heard that RvW was a privacy issue. If this is true, RvW probably would not be overturned because abortion is secondary to the privacy issue. This is speculation and I am requesting info from someone with better/correct info on the matter.

[Arianrhod]

17. RvW was decided by a Republican Court.

There were only two Democrats on the Court at that time, and one of them was a dissenter. The other dissenter in the 7-2 decision was Rehnquist.

[redqueen]

19. Gee, really? Do ya think?

Guess the "wackos" are going to catch on sooner rather than later!

[Romigi]

20. I doubt it will do much

Most people who vote Republican oppose abortion anyways so I don't see how it will do anything significant. In the same way most Democrats support abortion so I don't see any particular upswing there either.

This is probably the most divisive issue we all face. People already have their minds set on this topic and they won't change their votes irregardless.

[onehandle]

21. Rep. Davis Warns of Backlash if Roe v. Wade Is Overturned

What the Republicans really care about. Not life, but winning elections.
_________________________________________________

Reversal of the landmark Supreme Court decision that legalized abortion nationwide could produce an upheaval in U.S. politics and would put candidates who oppose abortion rights at risk of defeat in many parts of the country, a leading House Republican said yesterday.

Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.), chairman of the Government Reform Committee, said the desire of GOP conservatives to see a newly constituted Supreme Court eventually overturn Roe v. Wade could produce a political backlash, particularly in the suburbs. "It would be a sea change in suburban voting patterns," Davis said at a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

snip...

Davis's warnings on abortion grow out of the experience of Virginia Republicans in 1989, when the high court ruled that states could begin to restrict access to abortions. That fall, Democrat L. Douglas Wilder won the governor's race, with strong support in Northern Virginia.

"If Roe v. Wade is overturned," Davis said, "you're going to have a lot of very nervous suburban candidates out there. . . . It's easy to say you're for a culture of life, but the answer is what do you do about it at that point."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/16/AR2005111602088.html

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

22. If Roe goes, the only repukes left will be in

MO and UT, I think-and I'm not all that sure of MO.

[triguy46]

23. deleted

[triguy46]

24. Uh, no shit, sherlock. n/t

[PATRICK]

25. "It's nice to make a stand"

Wow! Tell me how you can't bury a politician with those words in this context. Bury him on all fronts with eager shovels left right and center.

Am I wrong? is this not one of the most deadly political quotes one can publicly make where the context makes it worse than it even sounds?

he just shot by almost all the Dem foot in mouth comments I can remember. And how stupid. Because it WAS an important issue he spoke his mind and laid his uncommitted heart on the electric rail??? Lie, don't choose to run, talk the RW out of it with some deal, but don't talk even to a sympathetic media like that. The pollster was smarter than that.

Was it nice to make a stand on Iraq too?