CNN/Reuters: Forecasters predict busy hurricane season

[DeepModem Mom]

Forecasters predict busy hurricane season
U.S. team expects 9 Atlantic hurricanes, 5 of them major storms
Tuesday, April 4, 2006

MIAMI, Florida (Reuters) -- The 2006 hurricane season will not be as ferocious as last year when Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, but will still be unusually busy, a noted forecasting team said Tuesday.

The Colorado State University team led by Dr. William Gray, a pioneer in forecasting storm probabilities, said it expected 17 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin during the six-month season starting in June.

Nine of the storms will likely strengthen into hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 mph, the team said, reaffirming their early prediction in December.

The forecasters said five of the hurricanes were likely to be major storms, reaching at least Category 3 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity, and boasting winds of at least 111 mph. (T)hey also said there was less chance of major storms making landfall in the United States compared with 2005's record-breaking hurricane season....

***

The long-term statistical average is for about 10 named storms per season, of which six become hurricanes.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/04/04/hurricane.predictions.reut/index.html

[central scrutinizer]

1. nice euphemism - "busy"?

Yeah, I guess Katrina was very "industrious" since often you have to tear something down to build something new.

[Up2Late]

2. Looks like Dr.Gray is erring on the high side this year, here's another...

...report from TSR (Tropical Storm Risk} who have been issuing increasingly accurate forecasts over the last few year. They even bested Dr. Gray last year.

Busy doesn't even begin to describe this forecast. This forecast is MUCH worst that last year

Note: the top two links are pdf files.

April 4, 2006 April: Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2006
<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLForecastApr2006.pdf>

5th April 2005 April: Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2005
<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLForecastApr2005.pdf>

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/for_hurr.html>

[Skarbrowe]

3. I'm afraid to read the links. Still deciding if I can stay in SF.....

after July. That's if we don't get hit with a big one in July. For the last 8 years that I have lived in South Florida, hurricanes didn't even enter my mind until late August or September. Now I'm dreading June.

What to do. What to do.

At least you do get quite a bit of warning with a hurricane. Not like those terribly unfortunate people who just got slammed by several tornadoes in the midwest. And the place I'm thinking about moving to is in the middle of a dangerous drought.

What to do. What to do.

[cliss]

8. Thanks for the real stuff, Up2late.

Now let's see what happens. And for verification, this thread will be in the archives later this summer, when thing start to get really bad.

I have NO doubt things are going to get worse. Because the water surface temperature is the same as last summer. That's what caused the monster hurricanes to build up so much strength.

Too bad the treasury is cleaned out when we really could have used it.

[ConcernedCanuk]

4. "will not be as ferocious as last year " - we should trust their opinion

.
.
.

WHY??

predictions of over 25 years to rebuild New Orleans, if ever

yeah right

create terror where none exists (Iraq)

and underfund known natural disasters

go figure . . .

(sigh)

[SLCPUNK]

5. Of course

There is no such thing as global warming.........(sarcasm alert)

[PurityOfEssence]

6. After how many years of "unusual activity" is it no longer unusual?

Just asking...

[leftyladyfrommo]

7. These Hurrican Cycles can Last 20 to 30 Years.

his is going to last a while. I think I read where this latest busy hurrican cycle began about 1995.

So is the levy fixed? Or does NO just get to see if they can make it thru another year without the levy.