China: Use of force may become unavoidable if Taiwan pursues independence

[Newsjock]

Title trimmed slightly from original to fit length limit
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/11/18/international2104EST0789.DTL

BEIJING (AP) -- Raising the stakes in an already tense situation, China threatened in remarks published Wednesday that "the use of force may become unavoidable" if the island pursues independence -- the mainland's strongest statement in years against its archrival.

Wang Zaixi, vice-minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said curbing Taiwan's efforts toward independence is the main goal of the mainland, which will go to war if neccessary.

"If the Taiwan authorities collude with all ... forces to openly engage in pro-independence activities and challenge the mainland and the one-China principle, the use of force may become unavoidable," Wang was quoted as saying in the China Daily.

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[htuttle]

1. They have measured Bush...

...and found him wanting.

Not to mention the fact that they have our corporate masters® by the short hairs...

[Skip Intro]

3. Absolultely

as warhappy as the bush regime is, they'll tuck tail with a "real" opponent. Hell, N.Korea is playing bush like a banjo, and you don't hear any tough talk from mr. mission accomplished there. In fact, we're pulling our guys back from the dmz (tho that does worry me a little, to be honest). Bush didn't do s**t when China had that "survielence" plane of ours a couple of years ago. What a debacle that was, which the press insignifified (wow, a new word).

But bush'll cower to China, unlike a man of substance. He won't even face the English parliment, and, as J. Stewart pointed out, they're our allies.

Its just a matter of time 'till one of the big powers (Russia, China) call his bluff (he's already on his knees to Israel). I don't see how such a confrontation could end well.

Just my $.02.

[Zech Marquis]

2. remember that little screwup on CNN

way back when * first slimed up Al Gore's WH? H esmirked on tv claiming,"we'll do whatever it takes' to defend Taiwan from China...if this idiot can;;t do shit in Afghanistan and Iraq, :wtf: will he do with China?

Simple; nothing.

Taiwan, I know you have some mean ass soldiers, but...just pray this is just some more hot air and nothing more...gulp :scared:

[Johnyawl]

4. Scary talk

No way does China have the Navy or Air Force to get across the Taiwan Strait and land an army. China does not have the naval assets to move soldiers, tanks, artillary, and supplies in large enough quantities to overwhelm Taiwan. Even if we stayed out of it, I think the Taiwanese Air Force & Navy would do so much damage to China's limited naval assets that what army they landed would be very quickly annihilated by the Taiwanese army. Even if we stayed out of the fight, it would be an enormous gamble for China. Throw a couple of American Carrier groups into the mix, and it becomes a military disaster for China.

This kind of talk is scary for three reasons:

1) China will attack, if Taiwan declares independence, they've made that very plain. Win, lose or draw, they will attack.

2) The economies of China & the US are entwined to the point that we will both croak if there is a major disruption of that trade. Regardless of the outcome of that war, there will be a world wide depression that will dwarf the '30s.

3) Nuclear escalation. China will have no effective conventional way of countering our carriers. Will they nuke our carriers? Quite probably. Will we nuke in return? Absolutely! No American President will survive politically if they don't.

A smart President would keep the carriers nearby, but let the Taiwanese do the fighting while we negotiated like crazy.

Too bad we don't have a smart President.

[bemildred]

5. I question your point #3.

They have rather excellent anti-ship missiles.
Mach 2, fly at 20 meters, range a couple hundred KM.

http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/weapon/3m80.asp

[Johnyawl]

8. How are they going to get within range to fire them?

A couple of hundred kilometers? Those two destroyers are never going to get within 200 kilometers of our carriers. Those carriers will be 1000 miles away when the planes from those carriers sink those two destroyers. And even if they do sneak up and get a shot away before being sunk, and their luck holds and the missle hits a carrier, what does that website say might happen?

Even with a conventional warhead, 3M-80E missile is large enough so that one hit from a single missile could seriously damage or possibly even sink a U.S. Navy major surface combatant, a hit from one or possibly even a few conventionally-armed Moskit missiles might not be enough to halt flight operations on a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier because of the carrier’s much larger size and its high degree of compartmentalization.

A typical Carrier group is comprised of 1 aircraft carrier, 1 guided missle cruiser, 2-3 guided missle destroyers, 1-2 destroyers, 1-2 fast frigates, and a couple of nuclear powered attack submarines. All those ships are there to protect that carrier. That's one hell of alot of firepower for 2 destroyers to fight their way through to within 200 kilometers of that carrier.

And we haven't even talked about the planes on that carrier.

I'll repeat: The Chinese have no conventional way of dealing with our carriers

[Media_Lies_Daily]

13. Nobody really seems to know what capability China has in the way of...

...sea-launched cruise missiles.

Won't be long before they have an excellent deterrence for any hostile fleet approaching within 1500 miles of China's borders. They already have land-based cruise missile systems they're currently testing for both theater and strategic attack modes. The land-based version should be operational sometime between 2004-2006.

[ramapo]

6. Hmmm

Taiwan may have the upper hand with military technology but there are an awful lot of Chinese.

It's a lose-lose situation, especially with our "President" in the equation.

[Johnyawl]

11. It doesn't matter how big your army is...

...if you can't get them to where the fight is, you might as well not have them.

China does not have have the transport, either naval or air, to move large numbers of troops across a body of water. And what transport they do have will be under constant attack from Tawainese forces.

China may have a 4 million man army, but they cannot swim the straits.

[Beaker]

14. That USED to be the conventional wisdom-

but not all the workers in China are building American consumer goods. The Chinese Navy has been bulking up, both by building new ships, and buying old ones from Russia, and making use of all that nice tecnology that the Lil' Dictator transfered to them on that spy plane after the "accident" with the chinese fighter jet.

When it happens, and it will, it's going to be REAL ugly.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

15. I think you may be underestimating the Chinese, just like the Bushies...

...have seriously miscalculated in Afghanistan and Iraq. IMHO, If you have to fight a war, you prepare for the worst so that you're never surprised. In addition to our attacks being unjustified, the Bushies weren't prepared for anything.

Chinese Defence Today
<http://www.sinodefence.com/default.asp>

[iam]

7. China

will blockade first, "starve" the Taiwanese and wait for the dumbya admin to cave with some sort of concession re: Taiwan Independence.

[Johnyawl]

9. You cannot blockade an Island unless you have a vastly superior navy

China's navy is not vastly superior to Taiwans.

What do you think Taiwan's navy and airforce will be doing during this blockade?

[WhereIsMyFreedom]

16. Sure you can

Taiwan's economy is nearly controlled by China due to so much of the Taiwanese manufacturing having moved to the mainland. China could cripple Taiwan simply by taking control of their factories located in China.

It would also be really stupid for the US to take a hard line against China because the new government there is a little unpredictable. A war between the US and China would devestate both of us economically. Do you have any idea how much stuff we import from China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan?

This is something I could never figure out. Officially, the stance of the US is that Taiwan is part of China. Why in hell do we have a carrier parked over there? Yeah, yeah, I know the reason. It's just the hypocrisy that annoys me.

[Kinkistyle]

10. China is ridiculous

I am truyl baffled by China's obsession with Taiwan. Its obvious the Taiwanese want to have no part with becoming "part of China". What do they hope to accomplish by taking Taiwan by force?

I have friends from Hong Kong, who were really happy and enthusiastic about re-joining China, but now are regretting it, due to the struggling economy and oppressive nature of China's government.

[bpilgrim]

12. they may be seeing an 'historical' opprotunity to act

while we are stuck in afghanistan, iraq, the whole ME and N. korea :shrug:

peace

[WhereIsMyFreedom]

17. From what I've heard

China's government may be oppressive but they are giving Hong Kong huge amounts of autonomy for now. Plus, I don't know what's been happening recently, but last summer when I was in China, they just passed a bill giving lots of aid to Hong Kong to help their flagging economy. I don't know how that's turned out though.

[Dogmudgeon]

18. Do you think ...

... Mainland China may want to force a confrontation not to regain Taiwan, but to extract huge concessions from the USA, Japan and Taiwan?

If they do force the confrontation, they can then "submit" to the USA and company -- then demand compensation for the loss of Taiwan, business, prestige, what have you.

I'm not sure the Mainland Chinese really want to be concerned with Taiwan. Maybe in fifty years, if and when they can assemble a major military presence. But now, Taiwan might be a much better sucker's lure.

This is all blue-sky guesswork on my part -- feel free to peck and pick it to pieces.

--bkl

[dusty64]

19. Many have speculated this

might happen while we are quagmired and stretched hopelessly across the globe. What a mess!