GOP seen keeping U.S. Senate, online markets say

[sabra]

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articlenews.aspx?type=internetNews&storyID=2006-11-06T222009Z_01_N06598722_RTRIDST_0_OUKIN-UK-MARKETS-ELECTIONS-WAGERS.XML

GOP seen keeping U.S. Senate, online markets say

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Online traders in contracts on the outcome of Tuesday's U.S. Congressional elections are putting their money on the Democrats recapturing the House of Representatives, but if their wagers are any guide, the Republicans are likely to hold on to the Senate.

On tradesports.com, an Irish online betting site, the latest prices reflect just a 25 percent chance that the Republican party will retain control of the House.

But the chances of the Republicans holding the Senate edged up a few percentage points from late last week to almost 75 percent.

"I say buy GOP now while its cheap," said one trader in a chatroom on the tradesports.com Web site. "I just bought a bunch," he said, referring to a contract that pays out $100 if the Republicans retain control of the Senate.

[MidwestTransplant]

1. Republicans loosing ground today in tradesports.com

[whirlygigspin]

2. wow! a SURE BET!

I can't lose!

why if I bet 1Million today, I'll get a 100million tomorrow!

wow!

place your bets...

[featherman]

3. Yet betting on individual races adds up to DEM control...go figure

With DEMS favored in the BIG SIX: PA, OH, RI, MT, MO and VA

So I can only figure that they must not pay off unless DEMS control an actual Majority of 51 DEMS and are not figuring the two INDS as caucusing with the DEMS.

Only thing this can possibly mean unless many bettors are figuring it's too difficult to run the table in these six OR the ones betting on the generic question are not looking at the individual races as closely as the more sophisticated and only reading media headlines.

[flowomo]

9. or a simple hedge bet....

n/t

[necso]

4. Can someone who is familiar

with tradesports tell me if it's possible to exploit this situation: that is, if one wants to bet on the pugs losing the Senate (against those odds -- which have fallen, soon possibly to be unattractive).

Not that I would engage in online gambling, of course.

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. No, there are too many people

Read a book called "The Wisdom of Crowds." These online markets tend to be right in their predictions more often than not.

[necso]

7. What I was looking

for was a description of mechanics and specifics, not opinions on whether 4/1 or 5/1 are good odds.

I think they are.

...

And I think I have figured out how the site works in general. But I still haven't seen a precise number figure for "to retain control"; I presume they mean 50 (the odds make less sense for 51).

And the numbers seem to trending up again.

[mainegreen]

6. I expect 49d-51r or 50/50.

51d/49r will be hard to do.

[bemildred]

8. Have some KoolAid. nt

[William Bloode]

10. I'll take the bet.

I got a feeling it's a real lock.