Ethiopian troops advance on Mogadishu

[maddezmom]

MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Sensing victory against its Somali Islamist foes, Ethiopia attacked retreating fighters from the air on Tuesday and threatened to seize their stronghold Mogadishu after a week of war in the Horn of Africa.

"Ethiopian forces are on their way to Mogadishu. They are about 70 km (40 miles) away and it is possible they could capture it in the next 24 to 48 hours," Somalia's ambassador to Ethiopia Abdikarin Farah told reporters in Addis Ababa.

Islamists said any attempt to take Mogadishu would end in disaster for the attackers.

"It will be their destruction and doomsday," Islamist spokesman Abdi Kafi told Reuters. "It is a matter of time before we start striking at them from all directions."

Ethiopia backs Somalia's secular interim government against the Islamists who hold most of southern Somalia after seizing Mogadishu in June. Addis Ababa and Washington say the Islamists are backed by al Qaeda and by Ethiopia's enemy, Eritrea.

more:http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061226/wl_nm/somalia_conflict_dc

[xchrom]

1. ethiopia won't stay in somalia.

they know they can't hold it.

but the islamists are over confident if they think the ethiopians will play nice -- and the islamists should take a long look at the war between eritrea and ethiopia.

i feel very, very bad for the people of somalia.

[alfredo]

5. The Ethiopian Army has long been

considered some of the fiercest fighters in the world. They won fame through their courageous fighting during the Korean war. The long conflict between them and Eritrea, plus poor leadership out of Addis, has taken its toll.

I lived within mortar range of the 2nd Division headquarters in Asmara. 1966-69

[xchrom]

7. then i don't have to tell you -- the ethiopians won't play

nice -- and they may not quit when the other side thinks they should.

the war with eritrea was horrible.

[alfredo]

9. The war is with Eritrea too. They are funding the Islamist.

[maddezmom]

2. Up to 1,000 Islamists dead in Ethiopia offensive: Meles

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) - Somalia's Islamists are in full retreat after Ethiopian airstrikes and a ground offensive that have killed up to 1,000 of the religious movement's fighters, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said on Tuesday.

"A joint Somali government and Ethiopian force has broken the back of the international terrorist forces... These forces are in full retreat," Meles told reporters in Addis Ababa, adding that up to 1,000 Islamist fighters had been killed.

"A few are Somali but the majority are foreigners," he said of the dead
~snip~
"We have already completed half our mission, and as soon as we finish the second half, our troops will leave Somalia."

He said he had information 3,000 wounded had been taken to hospital in the Islamist stronghold Mogadishu. But he said there were few civilian casualties because most of the fighting had taken place away from settlements.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061226/wl_nm/somalia_conflict_meles_dc

[Joanne98]

3. At least 800 war wounded in Somalia -Red Cross

ZURICH, Dec 26 (Reuters) - At least 800 wounded people have gone to hospitals and clinics in Somalia since Ethiopia began air strikes against Islamists, the Red Cross said on Tuesday, giving an indication of the scale of the fighting.

Ethiopian warplanes fired missiles on retreating Somali Islamist fighters near the government outpost of Baidoa on Tuesday. It was the third day of Ethiopian air attacks in the escalating conflict. "Over 800 war wounded have arrived at the various medical structures around Baidoa and Mogadishu in the last few days," said Antonella Notari, spokeswoman for the International Committee of the Red Cross.

As the situation remains confused, 800 is not an overall figure for wounded but it is "an indication of the fighting", Notari told Reuters in a telephone interview. There was no indication of the numbers of dead.

"Thousands of people are fleeing the combat areas. It is too early to tell if this is a temporary displacement," Notari said. "We will obviously also follow this situation extremely closely."

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L26387427.htm

[Joanne98]

4. The US in Somalia

US In Somalia
According to this International Herald Tribune column, the US military is supporting an "illegal" Ethiopian "war of aggression against the Union of Islamic Courts, which controls almost the entire south of the country." Somalia, on the eastern coast of Africa, forms a barrier between Ethiopia and the Indian Ocean.

Britain withdrew from the area in 1960 and chaos/war ensued, according to the CIA Factbook. A UN led a humanitarian effort (1993-95), primarily in the south, was not successful in ending the conflict.

http://uspolitics.about.com/b/a/207958.htm

[rollin74]

6. the islamic fundamentalist militia...

is trying to seize power from the secular, internationally recognized/U.N. recognized government of Somalia.
Why in the world would anyone support the radical islamist militia in this case?

[Eugene]

11. The recently formed government is almost completely powerless.

Somalia has not had a functioning government since 1990.
Somalis, especially businessmen, supported the Islamic Courts
as a means of restoring order after years of warlordism.
Unfortunately the Islamic Courts have established an order
that increasingly resembles the Taliban.

[Joanne98]

8. U.S. signals support for Ethiopian attacks on Somali Islamists

WASHINGTON: The U.S. State Department signaled support on Tuesday for Ethiopian military operations against Somalia, noting that Ethiopia has had "genuine security concerns" stemming from the rise of Islamist forces in its eastern neighbor.

Spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos also noted that the Ethiopian military acted at the request of the Somalia's internationally-backed secular government, which has been resisting with little success the spreading influence of the more powerful Islamist forces.

Gallegos had no information on whether the United States has been bolstering the Ethiopian military through delivery of supplies. He noted that Ethiopia has said that its action is intended to prevent further aggression by the Islamic Courts.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/12/26/america/NA_GEN_US_Ethiopia_Somalia.php

[psychopomp]

10. I would like somebody to explain to me why I should not support the Ethiopians in this

It seems to me that Somalia is a new haven for jihadists and that the foreigners who flock there need to be chased out before it becomes a secure base for their violent struggle against modernity and liberalism. I am the last to see al-Qaeda as anything more than a loosely-organized movement of a relatively small number people who share a religious conviction and an ideology of violence (not to be confused with the vast majority of Muslims).

In other words, I do not see some unified behemoth that must be combated, rather I see a movement that threatens the weakest nations such as Somalia. I see the Ethiopians going in the same light as the Vietnamese who rolled into Cambodia and shut down the Khmer Rouge.

[ellisonz]

13. The Ethiopians and their Somali allies...

...will not be able to "chase" Al Qaeda out, they'll simply force the Islamic militants to go underground, which means a long bloody civil war...leaving Somalia no better off than before. I have seen no real evidence that there is anything like the camps in Afghanistan in Somalia. A Somali professor of geography in the US was on the News Hour tonight w/Ray Suarez and basically said as much, terrorists? You've got to be kidding me, this is a long running civil conflict that is more complex in its origins than I care to explain. The Ethiopians are the historical enemies of the Somali people, so they're basically going to set off a war for national liberation if they go into Mogadishu. Their intervention will solve nothing.

Edit:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/26/AR2006122600285.html

[psychopomp]

14. It seems pointless

if this is truly nothing more than an extension of clan conflict. I have to point out the possibility of partiality on the part of the professor, however.

[ellisonz]

18. Perhaps...

...but it does not help us in Iraq to be seen as giving the Ethiopians carte blanche to wipe out a religious movment in a war torn country because we fear "terrorism." Our policy in this matter is much to narrow, furthermore, Ethiopia has an abysmal human rights records. There will be no winners, only losers, and of course the dead. If they had solid evidence...I'm sure the WH/Bolton would be all over it.

[Eugene]

12. Reuters: UN council fails to agree on plea to end Somali war

UN council fails to agree on plea to end Somali war
27 Dec 2006 01:31:55 GMT
Source: Reuters

-snip-

By Irwin Arieff

UNITED NATIONS, Dec 26 (Reuters) - A U.N. envoy urged the Security Council
on Tuesday to call for an immediate halt in the fighting in Somalia or risk a
broader conflict and greater instability in the chaotic Horn of Africa nation.

Failure to reach a political settlement through a resumption of talks between Somali
Islamists and interim government forces "would be disastrous for the long-suffering
people of Somalia and could also have serious consequences for the entire region,"
said Francois Lonseny Fall of Guinea, Secretary-General Kofi Annan's special envoy
for Somalia.

But the 15-nation council was unable to reach agreement on such an appeal after
Qatar, its sole Arab member, insisted the statement also call for the immediate
withdrawal of Ethiopian forces -- as well as all other foreign forces -- from Somalia.

The other council members backed a statement calling instead only for "unauthorized"
forces to pull out, a phrase they argued would not apply to Ethiopian troops which
were there at the invitation of the interim government.

-snip-

Full article: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N26385847.htm

[maxsolomon]

15. the ethiopians should stop short of mogadishu

and the islamists should get to the negotiating table. they've overplayed their hand & are falling back on tired jihadi rhetoric.

when they closed schools & started conscripting teenage boys to fight they lost the populace who appreciated the order they'd brought. the NYT had quote from a somali woman "fight your own holy war!". right on sister.

ethiopia should then get the fuck out ASAP. and eritria is also stupid - they have their independence - why keep poking the dragon? maybe they should concentrate on building a nation.

i see why we have so many east african immigrants nowadays...

[Eugene]

16. Pro-government forces say they plan to surround the city until the Islamists surrender.

Somali pro-government forces "will besiege capital"
27 Dec 2006 19:36:02 GMT
Source: Reuters

(Updates with Islamist news conference, U.S. comment)

By Guled Mohamed

MOGADISHU, Dec 27 (Reuters) - A joint force of Ethiopian and Somali government
troops advanced to just 30 km (18 miles) from Islamist-held Mogadishu on Wednesday,
but a representative said they would besiege the Somali capital rather than attack it.

"We are not going to fight for Mogadishu, to avoid civilian casualties. Our troops
will surround Mogadishu until they (the Islamists) surrender," Somali Ambassador
Abdikarin Farah told reporters in Addis Ababa.

-snip-

Earlier, pro-government forces seized the key southern town of Jowhar before taking
Balad, which lies only a short distance north of Mogadishu.

-snip-

Full article: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L27440182.htm

[maxsolomon]

17. whaddya know?

thanks for the info - an actual rational strategy. hmmm...