STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY 29 DECEMBER (#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday December 29, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 392
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 17 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 69 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 281
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 765
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 26, 2003

Dow... 10,324.67 +19.48 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq... 1,973.14 +3.91 (+0.20%)
S&P 500... 1,095.89 +1.85 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.15% -0.04 (-0.93%)
Gold future... 412.80 +1.20 (+0.29%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[Systematic Chaos]

1. Jeez, look at the Euro chart.

I'm just now getting ready to go to bed (about two hours late) and on my last sweep of the forums, here's the Stock Market thread. This fall of the dollar business is really starting to scare me, people! And another thing that I'll probably elaborate on in another post sometime this week is that the clientele at my casino here in Vegas seems a LOT tighter than they were in any of the previous three years. This should be the best time of the year for casino dealers, but in the low-limit joint where I work the money just ain't there. Kinda makes me think a lot of our players are people who booked their trips a while back and then went into shock with the economy and holiday spending only to find there was nothing left to play around with once they got here. Talk about a ripple effect!

Oh, and even if I've said this before it bears repeating: Thanks so much to all of you who post and maintain this thread each weekday. No matter whether I check it in the morning before work or later on when I get home, this is always a daily stop for me and I think I've learned a lot from all you regulars and experts. Keep up the good work even if the news does kinda tend to suck royally.... :)

[ozymandius]

3. Thank you progrocker!

It's always a shot in the arm when compliments are shared. This thread attracts a rapier sharp and interesting group of folks who come from all areas of our society. Your account, truly, is of some hefty concern. Inasmuch that casinos tend to have high volume of clients who go for the sport of gambling as well as the gimme features like free or really inexpensive food/drink, it strikes me very curiously that volume is way way down.

My experience over the weekend while shopping at big local stores and malls was surprising in that the places were virtually empty. Granted - the aisles and racks looked like a war zone with inventory devastated from the last spate of holiday gift buying. But the people were just not there for the "day after" sales.

[ze_dscherman]

5. European Central Bank mulling over the cutting of interest rates

"ECB fears strength of euro will undermine recovery

European Central Bank policymakers are becoming increasingly uneasy about the euro's rise, fearing it could move substantially higher and undermine the fragile eurozone recovery.

"We have warned for some time about the risks to growth posed by economic imbalances in other regions . Those risks are now materialising," said a senior official.

SNIP

The ECB policymaker said the bank needed time to assess the magnitude and persistence of the euro's appreciation. Its performance over the next "four to eight weeks" could influence the outlook on interest rates. He said the rapid strengthening of the euro had "introduced an element of uncertainty" into the outlook for the eurozone economy.

The central bank, which holds its next rate-setting meeting on January 8, will update its economic projections for growth and inflation in February and present them to governing council members in March. The ECB's latest projections, published in its December bulletin, were based on a stable euro-dollar exchange rate of $1.17. Since then, the euro has risen about 6 per cent to a high of $1.2447.

SNIP

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1071251794105&p=1012571727092

A new article in the German version of Financial Times clearly states that the ECB is mulling over the cutting of interest rates: http://www.ftd.de/ub/fi/1072525170486.html?nv=rs

Another read:
Low rate fears further undermine US dollar: http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1071251805168&p=1012571727092

----

And, yes, this thread has become a must read for me ever since I joined DU. Many many thanks and good wishes to all contributors!

[ozymandius]

7. I've read that Germany expects unemployment to fall next year.

A cheaper euro only makes sense a it will offset rising prices in dollar traded goods. Funny, how the steep value differences make commodities more expensive on each side of the Atlantic.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

12. Ditto. I check this thread at least two or three times a day..great info!

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood - THE DOW REPORT "Smoke and Mirrors"

A Quote from Robert Rhea

“Following the crash in 1929, which ended in October at 198.69, a secondary reaction in the bear market lifted prices to 294.07. (on April 17, 1930.) This was a curious movement, and a somewhat deceptive one. Doubtless it was influenced to a considerable extent by the payment of a huge soldier’s bonus, the proceeds of which seem to have been spent largely for automobiles.

A fast rally lifted the averages from 198.69 on November 13, 1929 to 263.46 on Dec. 7, 1929; then came the decline to 230.89 on December 20, 1929 and when, in the course of the zigzag upward movement to 272.27. on February 13, 1930 was bettered by both averages, many observers took it to be a bull market signal. I can remember having shorted stocks early in December, 1929 after having completed a satisfactory short position in October. When the slow but steady advance of January and February carried above 263.46, I became panicky and covered at considerable loss. With losses piling up every day, I forgot that the rally might normally be expected to retrace possibly 66 percent or more of the 1929 downswing. Nearly everyone was proclaiming a new bull market. Services were extremely bullish, and the upside volume was running higher than at the peak in 1929.

Now, I’m not saying that the market is going to crash from this point. But, I do expect it to decline significantly once this top is finally established.

The point that I have been trying to make all summer is that the decline from the 2000 top into the October 2002 low was only the first phase of this monster bear market. The rally that has occurred since the October 2002 low has no doubt gone further and lasted longer than anticipated. However, this does not change the fact that this is a bear market rally and thereby it does not change the big picture analysis. As I have talked about before, the bear market phases tend to be separated by important rallies. The rally since October is the important rally that should prove to separate phase one from phase two of this bear market. This means that once the top that is now being seen is complete and the market turns down, we are most likely headed for phase two. Please do not be blinded by the Hope and Hype that this rally has generated. It is smoke and mirrors.

more...

[ozymandius]

4. The Dropping Knife - by Alex Wallenwein

One thing is beyond dispute: The US economy seems to be booming - while the dollar keeps falling. The obvious question is: how long can this go on before the falling dollar will kill the economic recovery?

The answer: It doesn't matter.

<cut>
It's the only truthful one. The only thing that matters is to realize that the dollar will not stop falling. The rug is out from under it. The support structure is simply gone. If there ever was a reason in the ordinary investor’s mind to buy back into the dollar, it would be the current run-up in economic figures here in the US.

If only our investing friends could realize that the dollar-rug has long been pulled out from under this stock-market miracle on Wall Street. If only they could understand that the very foundation of the American miracle-economy, the unbacked fiat dollar, was a all but a trap-door from the very beginning - and that this trap-door has now swung wide-open.

more...

[54anickel]

42. Great article. I had just stumbled onto this other one by the same author

this morning, took me until now to get around to reading it. It actually ended up being a set of articles that I found quite interesting and timely regarding the dollar, euro and gold.

http://www.moneyfiles.org/wallenweim.html

[ozymandius]

6. Treasuries Run Up on Fed Inflation Remark

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices rose on Friday, boosted by comments from Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer that suggested the central bank would not raise rates for quite some time.

Speaking on CNNfn, McTeer said that U.S. inflation was still dormant and until it became a clear danger the Fed could maintain its current loose monetary policy.

Asked what the Fed meant by its commitment to keeping policy accommodative for a "considerable period," McTeer said: "When conditions change such that inflation looks to be a clear and present danger, then the considerable time is up."

story

[ozymandius]

8. I've gotta run, folks.

I'll try to check in later this afternoon. Meanwhile, thanks to all for watching the kettle.

Have a good one!

Ozymandius

[WillyT]

9. Holy Moly, Gold Is At $415\oz. ???

Wasn't it at $350\$370 just a short time ago?

Wassup with THAT???

:shrug:

[Andy_Stephenson]

10. I have been an advocate for gold for a long time.

I am a happy man! :)

[Maeve]

11. Gold is where money goes when it's scared

And not everyone believes the happy talk about the economy. Not by a long shot.


I TOLD Hubby we should have gotten that ring fixed months ago! :P

[JNelson6563]

17. still climbing 416 now

I've long been bullish on gold. :toast:

Julie

[Maeve]

30. Whoa! --looks like some folks are taking profits from gold

Dropped to $412 rather quickly

[Maeve]

45. and it's bouncing back up, adding evidence to my theory

Theoory of profit-taking, that is!

[JNelson6563]

13. Good Morning Marketeers!

Holy cow! Great toon, great articles, great posts! Wonderful start to a confusing day! Gold is up sharply which is counter-intuitive to bright, sunny stock futures and sharp rises in Treasuries.

BTW, a sharp rise in Treasuries because someone else said Greenman won't raise rates? <snarf> Oh I beg to differ. It must be done and if it is to be done then it's going to have to happen early in the year. Any later than Jan or Feb in an election year and we will hear the hue and cry "partisan!!". What was that guy short on T's? heh heh

Well the casino should be fun to watch today. Hope all had a good weekend! :hi:

Julie

[Coventina]

14. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hello everyone!

I hope you all had a good Yule.
Today I am sitting for the GRE, so I'm a little nervous.

Anyway, today's reading is UNITY changing to PENETRATING INFLUENCE.

Unity has three changing lines. I'll quote some of them here: "If you chase after the approval of others, you will lose your dignity. The people in the environment of your inquiry are not right for you at this time. Appearing committed to these people could darken your reputation later on. The moment for Unity has passed. Right from the beginning something was amiss and all attempts toward union inspired failure. This is unfortunate."

Yikes!

Penetrating influence says, "You are faced with a situation that can be influenced only by gradual efforts in a consistent direction. Gentleness is the key here. Violence and radical movement would only alarm and repel."

Ching doesn't sound too confident. I'm going to say that it will be a very erratic day, but eventually close with losses.

Hopefully by this time tomorrow I can tell you guys how I did on the test.
Four hours! I'm scared!
:scared:

[54anickel]

15. It's that time of year - Taxes and the IRS. Check out these headlines

:wtf: Going after the little guy, of course Shrub has made so many poor even poorer now let's teach them not to cheat on their taxes - it may hurt the rich. Let the corps slide thru an audit, ya they'll audit the corp name, address and tax id # and call it a day. Go after those nasty lawyers and accountants for forcing those corps to cheat! :eyes:


IRS targets earned-income fraud; critics crying foul
http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/business/7590146.htm

IRS Speeds Corporate Tax Audits; Fast-Track Method May Miss Fraud
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37109-2003Dec28.html

I.R.S. Unit Will Focus on Lawyers and Accountants
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/29/business/29tax.html?ex=1073278800&en=4e6b149f25b62a4d&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE

[54anickel]

16. Dollar Watch - How low will it go?

Good morning everyone :hi:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s
Last trade 87.29 Change -0.34 (-0.39%)

Settle 87.63 Settle Time 23:36

Open 87.51 Previous Close 87.63

High 87.72 Low 87.22

Wonder if we will see below 87 today. Hope the Greenman put new rotors in those breaks!

Was interesting to see the sudden concern for the Euro. Wasn't just a couple weeks ago that they were bragging that it could withstand a high of 1.35? That was the news then, the rumor was much concern already. Now the rumor has become the news!

I'll be away for a bit this morning. I have Purple Heart coming for a collection of clothes and what-not and have one more closet to try to clean out before they get here. A bit early on the spring cleaning - yet another advantage of being unemployed. I could get used to this. :D

[JNelson6563]

18. There seems to be no bottom

for the green-back. I think Team Bush thinks this will stimulate but it doesn't seem to be working. In fact, it seems to (rightfully) be inspiring more fear than confidence.

I gotta go sew my jewels into my clothes. ;-)

Julie

[54anickel]

25. Sure am glad the BoJ took out that big debt to uh, buy our debt?

I saw somewhere China has been doing the same. I can't find the article, but it had how much they buy weekly of treasuries and mortgages. I'll keep digging.

[54anickel]

37. I found the article! "Same bed, different dreams" Good read

http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/dec03/195898.asp

Washington, D.C. - When an American buys a house, there's a decent chance the Chinese bankrolled a chunk of the mortgage.

Beijing's central bank, the People's Bank of China, buys mortgage-backed bonds from both U.S. home-lending agencies, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, to the tune of $48.6 million on average every workday. In that way, the central bank lends its vast dollar reserves, a byproduct of China's trade surplus with the United States, to Main Street homeowners.....

China maintains an even higher credit limit with the federal government. China's reserve bank buys some $187 million in U.S. Treasury securities every business day, helping fuel the nation's record federal deficit - which in turn pays for its military expansion, its welfare programs and the economic recovery.

"We are beholden to them by our Treasuries," said former U.S. Trade Representative Carla Hills. "That worries me."

A blue-chip roster of U.S.-based multinational corporations forms the main line of resistance, pressuring lawmakers to widen trade ties, not constrict them. According to the Chinese government, 400 of America's Fortune 500 companies do business in China. Most of them boast lucrative profits.

"The Chinese spend no money on lobbying," said James Sasser, a former U.S. senator from Tennessee who served as ambassador to China from 1995-'99. "Their lobbying is really done by the American business community in Washington. And they don't want legislation that will adversely affect business ties."

much more......

[Maeve]

19. Submitted for your consideration...

The new year's coming, and cash will be pouring into stock funds

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It's quiet now, but in just a week's time a wave of cash is going to be bearing down on Wall Street.

January is typically the biggest month for inflows into equity funds, and with the market's bounce in 2003, Jan. 2004 could be especially big. As year-end bonuses (some people are actually getting them) come in, and as workers plan 401(k) allocations, investors are going to be shifting money toward stocks. Adding fuel to the fire, the 2003 tax cuts will add $40 billion to households' disposable income in the first half of 2004
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The only comment I have is that the "Greater Fool" theory may come into play here...and the tendency of folks to just miss the wagon.

[JNelson6563]

21. I fail to be encouraged by this

The obstacle to this would be DEBT. Americans are swimming in it. So many re-fi's all so standard of living can be maintained, credit card debt extremely high, I suspect year-end bonuses are already spent.

The ones who will benefit the most? My guess is banks who issue credit cards. ;-) They will see some accounts become more current.

Just my .0125

Julie

[54anickel]

22. I'd go along with the last 4 paragraphs - they always hide the sensible

stuff at the end of the article. Only thing I'd add is the man will look like a friggen genius! Even better if he put some in PMs :evilgrin:

[Maeve]

23. Shhhh! That's a secret!

You've got to sort all the way thru the drek to find the pony. And very few do...

[Maeve]

20. Starting on a high note

Dow 10,366.15 +41.48 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,983.71 +10.57 (+0.54%)
S&P 500 1,099.82 +3.93 (+0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.187% +0.039

[Maeve]

24. And going higher (10:07)

Dow 10,384.89 +60.22 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,991.02 +17.88 (+0.91%)
S&P 500 1,102.33 +6.45 (+0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 4.185% +0.037

[JNelson6563]

26. to think we were worried!

See? It's all good! Look at the Stock Market! Everything's just fine. ;-)

Julie

[warrior1]

27. don't get it

Why does it keep going up?

[Maeve]

28. A partial answer in the Yahoo blather

(blather actually provided by Briefing.com, but posted on Yahoo's page)
9:45AM: As forecasted by the futures market, the cash market is off to a higher start... The favorable bias is largely an extension of last week's gains, which saw all of the major averages finish higher for the week, as well as the mild gains in the overseas markets... There are no economic reports and corporate news is limited... Although volume is likely to be heavier than last week's, it's likely to maintain relatively unimpressive totals considering the fact that this week is another abbreviated one, with Thursday off in observance of New Year's day...

Accordingly, the market may undergo an exaggerated amount of volatility throughout the week and in today's session...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
~~~~~~~~~~
In other words, it goes up because it has been going up. And the big traders are still off on holiday, so the day trading speculators are playing the casino...the folks at financialsense.com believe it's part of the normal pattern of a bear market--the rally before the fall. Most of us on this thread tend to fear they are right.

[htuttle]

29. Because it's funny-money -- it's a casino

It has no connection to reality anymore. What used to be considered 'speculation' is now called 'investing'. People buy stocks with the expectation that their 'perceived value' will go up -- just like other people do with comic books and Hummel figurines.

Don't forget, though. In the long run, the house always wins.

[warrior1]

31. Perception is everything. Like a fart in the wind.

Then the perception of the public will be/is thinking that "Whew, everything is going to be okay."

So it's not will the shoe drop, just when?

[KoKo]

32. Good comment, htuttle. Just look at the projections about McDonalds

and other "restaurants" based on the theory that beef prices will be cheaper because of Mad Cow. Analysts had "downgraded" McDonalds, etc., because of rising beef prices. So in their "Alice in Wonderland" theory, Mad Cow means lower beef prices, so restaurants will have "higher profit margins."

Question is? Will the public be rushing out to eat more beef? And, that remains to be seen. It's all :crazy:

[htuttle]

34. That's just it, though

It really makes no difference to the intrinsic value of McDonald's stock how well 'McDonald's corporation' does. All that matters is what other people are willing to pay for McDonald's stock. Sure, at this point, their corporate performance does have an effect on person's perception of the value of their stock, hence, affecting the actual market value of their stock.

But there is no hard-wired connection. For example, say that stock purchasers where actually issued paper certificates again. Then say that McDonald's goes out of business. If enough people were interested, a market in buying and selling these expired, defunct certificates could spring up, just like people buy and sell any collectible. Their value would be determined buy how many people had them for sale on the market, versus how many people were interested in buying them. Just like it is NOW.

There it is. That's the image I've been searching for. Stocks nowdays are essentially the same as 'collectibles', like paintings, comic books, pez dispensers -- anything people buy with the expectation that the value will go up so they can sell it for more than they paid for it.

[54anickel]

33. China may reconsider yuan peg, analysts say

So says the headline anyway. Reading the article, it looks more like wishful thinking again by analysts. Lot's going on with BoC right now including writing off a lot of bad debt and a bailout from US of 20 billion.

http://www.iht.com/articles/123039.html
snip>
China, which this year has resisted international pressure to revalue its currency, may agree to bury the yuan's decade-old peg to the dollar in 2004 as it looks for ways to cool economic growth and ward off inflation, investors and analysts say.

In recent months, China has been buying the U.S. currency in international markets in order to maintain a fixed exchange rate of around 8.28 yuan per dollar, which was set in 1994. The effort, which puts more money into circulation in China, threatens to exacerbate inflation, which the government has said accelerated to a rate 3 percent in November, the fastest in six and a half years.

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-12/26/content_293629.htm
Bank of China to get US$20b bailout
Bank of China, the nation's second-largest lender by assets, will get a US$20 billion government bailout as soon as next week to help write off bad loans before a first-time share sale in 2005, said an executive at the bank Wednesday.

China's oldest lender, which will receive the capital in U.S. dollars, will use the funds to reduce bad loans and speed up plans to sell shares, said the official, who asked not to be identified.

Bank of China is one of four State-owned banks trying to reduce US$400 billion of bad loans created by five decades of lending to State companies.

Bank of China wants to cut its bad-loan ratio below 10 percent from 17.98 percent now, to make it more attractive to investors and to compete with overseas competitors, including Citigroup Inc., which can enter China without restrictions at the end of 2005.

[jimbot]

35. Any good gold funds purchasable on E*Trade

Hi folks,

I bought UNWPX a few months ago (a precious metals fund) but it doesn't really track gold all that well (at least it hasn't this past few weeks). I was wondering if there was any other good ways a small investor like myself can purchase gold out of their E*Trade accounts.

Thanks in advance,

--JT

[abelenkpe]

36. uh...

I'm not familiar with investing at all, however I have saved up a healthy sum that I was planning to use as a down payment on a house. I've been scared off by the rising cost of real estate here in Los Angeles and have decided to wait a few years before seriously looking at real estate again. I don't want my savings to be devalued though. Should I invest my money in gold? And if so, what's the best way to go about doing that? Are there reputable firms I should consider? Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

[54anickel]

39. Hello Jimbot and abelenkpe - welcome to DU

:hi:
You may want to check out the economic forum postings. I know there have been several threads going on there for the past couple of months regarding PMs.

I cannot speak for the other Marketeers here, but investment/speculation advice is not my forte.
The only advice I can give is do your homework.

[Code_Name_D]

48. Economics room here.

Yes, a hearty welcome to the DU, and I think I can answer your questions. But with a caviot. Not sure how the marketires here feal about it, but in the economics room, we have an unwriten rull. To not ask for investing advice, and do not give it.

Economics is NOT about investing. Its about how things work behind the seen. And when it comes to housing & relistate? Things are indeed very intresting. The common censnes is that housing and relistate now sits on the mother of all bubbles, and this baby can blow at any time. SO there is some truth to your concern. However, not in the way you might think.

Bying a house is not a speculitive investment as some might have you to beleive. What you are intrested in looking for is something withen your price range that you can afford, and something that is as closed to "appraised" value as posible, rather than "market value." Also rember than you have the right to barter over the price of the home, so you have some invluence over what you can pay.

Do not be conserned to much about shock depreceation. This only becomes an issue if you are bying more on a market price than an apprase one. Plus, inflation can make it look like your home is losing value, when it realy isn't. But the key thing is that housing is a function that you invest in. Not that your house in an investment that you would expect to pay off some time in the fucher. That is another myth a lot of people have been programed with. The worst that could happen is that you discover you paied more than you could have. You still have the house. (Forgiving the load from the bank, or course.) Unlike stocks when when the value of the stock depricates, you truly do lose money. But it is natrural and healthy to expect a house to depreaceate over time.

Second, get away from the housing devlupments. You should expand your serch twords older homes, and used homes. There seems to be a feeling that its already a buyers market in the used home sector. I know in my area, there is a glut of used homes already on the market. If I had the budget, I could just about live any where I wanted in town. If you do go this route, we would be very intrested in any observations you might have.

I hope that helps.

[54anickel]

49. Thank you Code Name D for picking this one up.

Very sound words of Wisdom.

[Maeve]

57. Thanks, Code_Name_D!

Like the Econ folk we don't usually give advice up here--likewise, we are mainly observers of the madness of others. But I'll comment anyway...

Buy a house to live in, not to invest in. In many instances, it's cheaper over-all than renting (I couldn't rent more than an efficiency for what we pay in mortgage, insurance and taxes for the house!) And most places you will get more for your dollar looking at "pre-owned" homes. If you're able to handle a fixer-upper, all the better! Make sure the area is stable or rising in value, tho. A nice house in a declining neighborhood is risk you don't really want to take. A buyer's agent can help you immensely, btw--someone who is looking out for your interests. Ours saved us more than his fee. And always get a good inspector!

Free advice and worth every penny! :D

[54anickel]

59. Excellent advice! And worth double your quoted price!!!

I am certainly glad you and Code Name D came back for this one.
Much more useful than my suggesting the other forum!

Ah, such a learning curve I have yet to climb.

Thanks again!

[JNelson6563]

38. 12:05 update

Checkin' in, here's how it looks:

Dow 10,375.70 +51.03 (+0.49%)
Nasdaq 1,990.85 +17.71 (+0.90%)
S&P 500 1,101.72 +5.83 (+0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 4.222% +0.074

A slap to Treasuries. Ouch.

Good thread, enjoyed the discussions. Thanks all for sharing your thoughts. Great insights.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

40. 1:29 and it's all good

Dow 10,394.45 +69.78 (+0.68%)
Nasdaq 1,993.80 +20.66 (+1.05%)
S&P 500 1,103.91 +8.02 (+0.73%)
10-Yr Bond 4.212% +0.064

So glad happy days are here again! :-)

Julie

[lfairban]

41. If you think you are doing well in the stock market . . .

. . . because of the run-up in prices, re-figure everything in gold or Euros. What you are actually looking at to a great extent is the decline in the dollar. The stock market has risen 33% since early March, but gold has gone up 18%.

[54anickel]

43. Shhhh. The inflation is going right where Greenman wants it to go.

Inflation from all those fiat dollars need to go somewhere.

Up, up and away in my beautiful balloon!

[Frodo]

54. Why?

Do you buy food with gold? Do you buy new computers with Euros?

You don't "re-figure" your dollar denominated assets into some foreign currency to see how well you did... you re-figure any FOREIGN assets you have into DOLLARS.

At this point, there is little damage done by the weak dollar. (emphasis on "at this point" and notice that OTHER countries are hurting because of the dollar).

[54anickel]

44. Dolar update - a wee bit of a recover from todays low so far

Last trade 87.36 Change -0.27 (-0.31%)
High 87.72 Low 87.22

[ozymandius]

46. Hi again. Back to the breeches for nap time.

At 2:39 we have
Dow 10,403.48 +78.81 (+0.76%)
Nasdaq 1,994.05 +20.91 (+1.06%)
S&P 500 1,104.30 +8.42 (+0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 4.220% +0.072

[JNelson6563]

47. Wee-hoo! Ride 'em Cowboy!!

3:04 and things just couldn't be better!

Dow 10,404.52 +79.85 (+0.77%)
Nasdaq 1,994.09 +20.95 (+1.06%)
S&P 500 1,104.29 +8.41 (+0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 4.230% +0.082

Don't slip on the blood there on the floor in Treasuries. ;-)

Julie

[ozymandius]

50. Things just don't get any better than this.

Unless we were free of the Bush yoke. Apologies to our treasuries friends.

3:44
Dow 10,422.81 +98.14 (+0.95%)
Nasdaq 1,998.91 +25.77 (+1.31%)
S&P 500 1,106.89 +11.00 (+1.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.230% +0.082

[Maeve]

51. What a run!

Dow 10,450.00 +125.33 (+1.21%)
Nasdaq 2,006.48 +33.34 (+1.69%)
S&P 500 1,109.48 +13.59 (+1.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.230% +0.082

Who let the bulls out? (Moo! Moo! Moo!)

[54anickel]

53. More to this mad bull than we could have guessed. Crazy!

[54anickel]

52. Dollar update - News doesn't seem too good for 04

Seems to have stabilized for the afternoon....
Last trade 87.38 Change -0.25 (-0.29%)
High 87.72 Low 87.22

The article I posted in #42 seems to be stating the dollars days as the worlds reserve currency will be coming to an end (thanks Shrub and Greenspan)
China is getting ready to unload a bunch of bad debt, and we're giving them a bail out.
The former BoJ is urging Japan to stop intervention.
http://www.iht.com/articles/122733.html

When I found that article posted in 42 I had no idea how true it would start to ring today. Seems like it is just a matter of time.
:( Hope it is not true.

[ozymandius]

55. What will be the first effects of the dollar's demise?

I would expect fuel prices to rise as OPEC nations switch to the euro. (Wasn't that one reason why we invaded Iraq: they bucked the dollar?) That, I understand, will have an impact on commodities markets as the cost of goods will go up. But what will the immediate reaction among stock and bond markets be, ya think?

[54anickel]

56. Logic would seem to dictate they'd be in the tanker, but this market

is anything but logical.
Everything is so global now. Obviously Japan and China would stop financing our debt.
Perhaps it would all tank, hitting the auction block, making it a great time once again for mergers and acquisitions - the US would be one big old foreign owned subsidiary.

Think I'm a bit pessimistic today......

[WillyT]

58. If This Isn't 'Irrational Exuberance II', What The Hell Is It ???

Seems like once again, the numbers don't match the reality.

Or so it would seem.

:shrug:

[JNelson6563]

60. It's all a happy dream

aren't you rich yet?? Why complain?? ;-)

Julie