Government reports sales of previously owned homes down significantly last

[Purveyor]

(12-30) 07:40 PST WASHINGTON (AP) --

Sales of previously owned homes declined by 4.6 percent in November. But sales nevertheless registered their fifth best month on record, a sign that the housing market remains in good shape.

The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday that the decline from October to November still left total sales at a brisk seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.06 million homes. Sales of existing homes are on track to set a new record for all of 2003, economists said.

<snip>

Some analysts had forecast smaller decline in sales for last month, however.

By region, sales of previously owned homes declined last month by 2.4 percent in the West to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.64 million. In the Northeast, sales slipped by 4.1 percent to a pace of 700,000. In the South, sales declined by 5.1 percent to a rate of 2.44 million and in the Midwest, they fell by 6.6 percent to a rate of 1.27 million.


Link to AP article

[aquart]

1. NOT good news no matter what the spin.

Seen Craigslist? People selling everything in the two-bedroom apartment because they're moving into a studio?

Lotta those these days.

[Tansy_Gold]

2. I think there are a lot of questions these stats don't cover.

And maybe the answers are elsewhere, but. . . .

1. Are sellers of existing homes getting the prices they're asking, or do they come down from the original listing? And what's the average age and condition of these homes?

2. How long are existing homes on the market before they sell?

3. Who are the buyers? Are they first-time home buyers, those trading up to a larger, more expensive home, or investor/speculators?

4. Who are the sellers, and why are they selling? Retiring, moving into something smaller? Moving to relocate? Getting their cash out because they've lost a job and have no other income? Facing bankruptcy or foreclosure as the only alternative?

5. How much equity do they have in the houses they are selling? Have they bought on the basis of barely qualifying and now can't manage the payments but don't have much to lose, or are they people who have gradually sunk into the morass of insolvency due to major medical or other unplanned large debt?

6. Where do the sellers go after the sale? Do they buy another house? Move into an apartment? Move in with friends/relatives?

In our jobloss recovery, I just think this whole housing boom is an enormous bubble, waiting to pop and spread economic destruction everywhere. But then again, I'm just the pessimist known as

Tansy Gold

[maddogesq]

3. Have sister in real estate.

Her territory is an old, yet established community. She works 16 hour days, and is one of the top sellers in her office. Yet, things are so bad that she is considering getting out of the business altogether. She hasn't seen a paycheck in months, yet she trudges on.

I want my Big Dog back!

[Frodo]

4. Huh?

She's one of the best sellers in her office and hasn't seen a commission in months?

What market is she in???

Last month was a sizable decline due to higher interest rates, but it was still the 5th hotest month in history and winding down the hottest sales year ever. She must be in a horrible market. Or it was perceived to be SO good that the number of agents has tripled and business isn't keeping up. I've seen that happen.

Things haven't gotten THAT bad yet.

[FloridaPat]

5. I second that! I sure miss the guy that only lied about sex.

[mbperrin]

6. Gosh! Look at that *Bush economic machine

gain momentum! Down is actually up! Previous good is present good! Worse news than expected is good news!

[Frodo]

7. ???

Yes. "worse news than expected" is good news if what you expected was even better news.

If you win the lottery and later find out you only get ten million instead of the eleven million you expected, the news failed to live up to your expectations... but is hardly BAD news, is it?

The fifth best sales month in history is hardly BAD news. Especially in a rising rate environment.