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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 04:07 AM
Original message
Chavez rallies backers before Venezuela referendum
Source: Reuters

Chavez rallies backers before Venezuela referendum
Fri Nov 30, 2007 11:37pm GMT

By Brian Ellsworth

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Friday rallied supporters before a weekend referendum on overhauling the oil-producing country's constitution that would expand his powers.

Polls show a technical tie between the "Yes" and "No" votes on the constitutional overhaul that would let Chavez run for re-election indefinitely.
(snip)

Emerging market investors are nervously awaiting the results, with Venezuelan bond prices slumping over the last month on concerns over possible political turbulence if the vote is close.

Opposition leaders have pledged to stage protests if the Chavez-controlled electoral authority tampers with the vote, while government leaders say the opposition is preparing to cry fraud and launch violent demonstrations if the reform passes.





Read more: http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKN3033336820071130?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0



~~~~ click for photo ~~~~

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (L) waves to supporters as he arrives at a rally in Caracas November 30, 2007.
President Hugo Chavez needs to rely on a vast get-out-the-vote machine to avoid an unprecedented defeat when
Venezuelans cast ballots on Sunday in a referendum on letting him run for re-election indefinitely.

REUTERS/Daniel Aguilar
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 04:13 AM
Response to Original message
1. Last Updated: Saturday, 1 December 2007, 01:49 GMT
Last Updated: Saturday, 1 December 2007, 01:49 GMT
Chavez urges reform for Venezuela
Mr Chavez is sending troops to "protect" the country's oil fields


Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has urged voters to approve constitutional changes in a referendum on Sunday.
Addressing tens of thousands of supporters at a rally in Caracas, he also threatened to stop oil supplies to the US if it tried to disrupt the vote.

The reforms include allowing abolishing presidential term limits and ending the autonomy of the Central Bank.

Mr Chavez said the proposed changes would return power to the people, but critics accuse him of a power grab.

Mr Chavez said that his opponents could try to sabotage the vote, with backing from Washington, through violent protests.

More:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7121487.stm

BBC news clip: http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/check/player/nol/newsid_7120000/newsid_7122400?redirect=7122403.stm&news=1&bbram=1&bbwm=1&nbwm=1&nbram=1&asb=1
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 04:15 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Chavez Backers Make Final Push for New Constitution (Update2)
Chavez Backers Make Final Push for New Constitution (Update2)
By Matthew Walter

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's backers marched to a rally in Caracas today to drum up support for this weekend's referendum on his plan to rewrite the constitution.

Thousands of supporters in red shirts demonstrated, waving banners that read ``Yes With Chavez,'' to urge Venezuelans to vote in favor of the proposal to rewrite 69 articles of the constitution. Chavez says the changes will deepen his ``Bolivarian'' socialist revolution.

``Venezuela was a country of slaves, on its knees before the North American empire,'' Chavez said today during a speech at the rally, broadcast by state television. ``Those that vote yes are voting for Chavez, and those that vote no are voting for George W. Bush.''

Today's demonstration marks the end of a three-month campaign for the measures, which include the elimination of presidential term limits and the end of central-bank autonomy. The changes have dividend Venezuelans, and some pollsters say the outcome of the Dec. 2 vote is too close to call a year after Chavez won re-election with 63 percent support.

More:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=avudRF0mclq4&refer=latin_america

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Solar_Power Donating Member (422 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 02:23 PM
Response to Reply #2
20. Absolute power corrupts absolutely
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 04:02 PM
Response to Reply #20
25. And how does that apply? No one is dismantling the Assembly
or the Courts?

Really, it's just so silly the way people post this jingles.
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 05:02 AM
Response to Original message
3. Does anyone else think those "polls" are fake? n/t
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Andrushka Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 05:12 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. (cough)
Oh come now, how could you say that!

:sarcasm:
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 05:25 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. During the time right after the kidnapping of Hugo Chavez, & the arrival of the Bush-approved coup
DU'ers who were reading regularly then were rushing to their monitors to see what DU'er "pescao," who was in Caracas at that time, was writing in his updates he sent repeatedly to us. His live reports, personal remarks probably drew many to start watching Venezuelan events far more closely than ever before.

Another poster was contributing regularly then, too. Can't remember her name, although it was Spanish.She was familiar with Venezuela, having lived there for quite a while with her relatives, and having relatives who live there now. She and pescao brought a lot of us much closer to getting a sense of life there, and it was invaluable, and unforgetable.

This lady DU'er said that pollsters don't call Venezuelan poor people for their positions because most of the vast numbers of poor people in Venezuela DON'T HAVE PHONES! Furthermore, she said, they tend to not go into the poor neighborhoods, and poll these Venezuelans in person because they are AFRAID OF POOR VENEZUELANS AND AVOID THEM.

There have been some articles which address the polls and their credibility I've discovered rummaging around on the internet, like this one:
Can you believe Venezuela's pollsters?
by Justin Delacour
February 06, 2003

Over the last year, several correspondents in Venezuela have repeatedly attempted to portray Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez as an unpopular leader. The most common basis for these statements has been the recitation of “polls” claiming that Chávez’s approval rating is down to around 30 percent.

The commercial media correspondents rarely cite the source of their polls. So this reporter contacted them, and most of the reporters offered only the names of two Venezuelan companies – Datanalisis and Keller and Associates.

An investigation into the operations of these two Venezuelan polling firms and their relationships with correspondents reveals that, by any fair measure, it is irresponsible for correspondents to cite the two firms’ polls without also mentioning that the two firms are headed by virulently anti-Chavez figures who frequently use polling samples that are unrepresentative of the overall Venezuelan population.

The first factor that calls the polls into question is the well-known political partisanship of the polling firms’ directors, Jose Antonio Gil Yepes of Datanalisis and Alfredo Keller of Keller and Associates.

In a recent e-mail interchange, The Los Angeles Times’ correspondent T. Christian Miller acknowledged that the two pollsters are “pretty anti-Chavez,” but he defends their credibility on grounds that "both do door to door polling, to get the poorest of poor represented in their surveys, and also balance for things like gender and region." Miller’s defense of Keller and Gil Yepes is very questionable in view of contrary evidence. However, before presenting this contrary evidence, we would like to point out the problems with the two pollsters’ political partisanship.
(snip)

Gil Yepes and Keller are not merely “anti-Chavez”; they are openly and virulently anti-Chavez. In a July 8 article in the Los Angeles Times, Miller describes Gil Yepes as a man of “Venezuela’s elite” who “moves in circles of money, power and influence” and “was educated in top U.S. schools.”

It’s certainly shocking that the LA Times quoted Gil Yepes saying that Chavez “has to be killed.”

More:
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=40&ItemID=2985
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 05:44 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. Thanks for the info Judi Lynn
It was very interesting.

Fake polls seems to be a tool of the neocons. They are used in the US every now and then to get people thinking they are out of touch. The pro war with Iran poll and the anti Hillary, pro repuke poll come to mind.

I suspect these fake polls are rampant in Venezuela because the neocons are so sure to fail with the Chavez reforms.
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CRH Donating Member (671 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #5
13. Thanks Judy for the OP and this post, ...
And for any others who desire more recent articles by the author of the above post, as well as polling information and the current affairs in Venezuela, follow the link below.

~~ Link ~~ Latin America News Review ~~ http://lanr.blogspot.com

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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Great link! Too cool seeing this turn up:
Edited on Sat Dec-01-07 01:56 PM by Judi Lynn

"Word to the press: Watch your step with Datanalisis. They're shady."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It's so good to see someone "telling it like it is!"
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 05:39 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. Just found a recent comment on Hinterlaces, the company mentioned in the O. P.:
Opposition-linked Poll Says Chavez to Lose Referendum
Reuters Nov 30, 2007

CARACAS—A poll aligned with the opposition on Friday showed Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will likely lose a referendum two days away on whether he can run for reelection indefinitely.

Most other polls have shown a statistical tie between the "Yes" and "No" camps, putting the anti-U.S. president in the toughest vote fight of his political career over a constitutional overhaul that the opposition calls authoritarian.

Chavez said on Friday his polls say he will win Sunday's referendum by at least 10 points. That would be a much smaller victory margin than he is used to in almost yearly national votes, stretching back to his first election in 1998.

Hinterlaces—an opposition-aligned polling company that predicted Chavez's landslide reelection a year ago—said 55 percent of likely voters were set to vote against Chavez while 42 percent would vote "Yes."

The Hinterlaces poll could raise optimism among the opposition—a mix of political parties, university students and business groups.

More:
http://en.epochtimes.com/news/7-11-30/62489.html

(It's a big surprise to see Reuters actually admitting this polling company is linked to the opposition! It's a rare moment of candor.)
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CRH Donating Member (671 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 01:40 PM
Response to Reply #6
15. Venezuela: Datanalisis Pollster Dismisses the Firms Own Poll ...

http://lanr.blogspot.com/2007/11/venezuela-datanalisis-pollster.html#links

Venezuela: Datanalisis Pollster Dismisses the Firms Own Poll

snip

WASHINGTON, D.C. - In an interview made available Wednesday, November 28, the head of a widely-cited polling firm contradicted his firm's own findings that had suggested a majority of likely voters would vote against proposed constitutional changes favored by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.

In an interview with Reuters posted online yesterday, Luis Vicente Leon, a pollster for Datanalisis stated, "The most probable is that there will be no surprise and Chavez will win 60 percent against 40 percent."

Datanalisis' prior survey has been the most widely cited poll in the international media in the run-up to Sunday's referendum. The poll, conducted on behalf of private businesses, and reported in the media on November 24, reported that "about 49 percent of likely voters oppose the reforms while 39 percent favor."<1>

Vicente Leon's statements directly contradict the results of the poll. If the 60/40 projection is correct, CEPR calculated that the odds of obtaining the prior poll result - i.e. 49 percent of respondents saying no -- would be one in two billion trillion.

end excerpt ~~
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #15
23. Good for him. I can't believe the barrage this week.
Someone somewhere is going all out against this vote.
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ronnie624 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. Even if the polls weren't being manipulated
Edited on Sat Dec-01-07 12:13 PM by ronnie624
by the corporate entities that conduct them - which is very unlikely, considering the statements that have been made by the the executives of these firms - to me, this is a good indicator.

It has been noted that these polls are conducted by telephone. Half of all Venezuelan households have no phone service, and the pollsters do not venture into the neighborhoods where support for Chavez is strongest to ask for their opinions. These are also the areas where phone service is least likely to be found. Those who conduct the polls could not possibly be getting an accurate picture of Venezuelan sentiments overall. I would say polls showing a 50/50 split right now is a very good thing.
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 06:40 AM
Response to Original message
8. Venezuela prepares for constitution poll
Hilversum, Saturday 01 December 2007 11:34 UTC
Venezuela prepares for constitution poll

Caracus (1 December) - In Venezuela, more than 100,000 people have demonstrated in favour of the constitutional changes President Hugo Chávez wants to introduce. On Thursday, a similar number of people protested against the proposed alterations.

On Sunday, Venezuelans vote in a referendum on changes to the constitution including allowing the president to be re-elected unlimited times. Opinion polls indicate the vote will be neck and neck.

http://www.radionetherlands.nl/news/international/5540432/Venezuela-prepares-for-constitution-poll
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Andrushka Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 08:17 AM
Response to Original message
9. Venezuelan Government Uncovers Video of Opposition Destabilization Plan
Source: www.venezuelanalysis.com

Venezuelan Government Uncovers Video of Opposition Destabilization Plan
November 30th 2007, by Chris Carlson - Venezuelanalysis.com

Caracas, November 30, 2007 (venezuelanalysis.com)- Venezuelan Telecommunications Minister Jesse Chacon presented a video revealing the opposition strategy of destabilization for Sunday's referendum at a press conference on Thursday. In the video, opposition leaders call on their supporters to reject the results of the referendum and to take part in nation-wide protests to overturn the constitutional reform. Two opposition leaders are being investigated for inciting violence and calling on supporters to break the law.


----
They are at it again.

Video and story (in Spanish) here: http://www.aporrea.org/medios/n105515.html

:puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :argh:
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Here's the computer generated translation to English from Babelfish:
Babel Fish Translation Help

In English:
(VIDEO) They show competing leaders from a church summoning to not know results By: Press World-wide Web YVKE Date of publication: 29/11/07 impri it to me mándaselo to your velveteens The Mayor Leopoldo Lopez, was between the competing leaders in the church. Credito: File - VTV The conductor of the Hojilla, Mario Silva, had access to a video where Alexander Rock Sluice, leader of the Venezuelan extreme right, and Leopoldo Lopez, mayor of Chacao, debated the past in a church in Samanes (Caracas) 21 of November on the plans for the 2 of December. Rock Sluice is in favor of "the candelita" plan: ten thousand centers of protests at national level singing fraud immediately Tibisay Lucena announce the results, that, in opinion of Rock Sluice, will lead to a governability crisis. This happens at the same time that Vice-president Rodriguez asks the Episcopal Conference if the churches are being used to destabilize. This Wednesday, the program "the Hojilla" of Venezuelan of Television showed a video in which Leopoldo Lopez, mayor of Chacao, and Alexander Rock Sluice, leader of the competing extreme right, explained the plans that they soon have for this Sunday of referendo for the Constitutional Reformation. Even though the conductor of "the Hojilla", Mario Silva, did not explain as it was the church where it happened this meeting nor when became the same one, the same videos can be found in the Youtube vestibule (to see 1, 2, 3 and 4) as well as in the Digital News Web site. The person who raised them, of "giancarloga" name, affirms to have recorded these images the 21 of November of the 2007 in a small church of the sector Samanes, in the Southeastern of Caracas. "We do not know referendo", affirmed to Rock Sluice. "We beforehand do not know the electoral act as well as the results; if the CNE announces that it won Yes, that act is írrito and null." It affirms that the Reformation is an act of treason to the mother country, and that the important thing is not to discuss if to vote or not to vote, but to prepare itself at night for Sunday, when the candelitas execute the plan "". "day 2 at night, or day 3 at dawn, Tibisay Lucena it is going to leave in national chain and is going to say that Yes it won, probably with a percentage of the 65 percent". Rock Sluice requests that, it has vowed or no, the people must be prepared: "a million people, divided in 10 thousand centers of protests same day, to the same hour, at national level, they are not possible to be repressed with 200 armed men. It requires to require to all the military institutions and police (...) It is a mechanism, much more surely efficient, that forces to a political crisis and of governability that the regime forces to retire the Reformation." Leopoldo Lopez took part affirming that he thinks that yes he is due to go to vote and who in referendo of 2004 "there was fraud", because there were witnesses of table of the no opposition in many of the tables. It thinks that the effort must focus in preparing table witnesses, to which Rock Sluice proposes that, instead of that, must organize 10 thousand centers of protests in a joint effort that must include all the parties of opposition. Used churches to subvertir the order Rock Sluice directed in the years the eighty political party of extreme right Shared in common Force, neofascist character, and was an outstanding leader of the Christian sect Tradition, Family and Property, radically preservative and anti-communist, that isolated the young people who participated in her and was prohibited in Venezuela in 1984 when she was discovered that they glided to assassinate al Pope Juan Pablo II to his visit to our country. The presentation of this video agrees with the denunciations of vice-president Jorge Rodriguez, who has demanded explanations by two days consecutive to the Venezuelan Episcopal Conference, to the cardinal Jorge Urosa Sabino and the father Luis Ugalde, on the presumed entailment of sectors of the Catholic Church in "guarimbas" or violent protests that happened this Monday in the states Carabobo and Aragua, that caused the death of the worker of Petrocasa Jose Anibal Oliveros Yépez at hands of competing extremists. According to Rodriguez, the day Sunday a meeting was made in the Diocesiano Institute in Beautiful the Andrés urbanization of Maracay, with the presence of Oscar Perez and Carlos Guyón Celis, two leaders of the competing grouping radical "National Commando for the Resistance". Rodriguez also denounced that Monday at dawn, some churches carabobeñas were used to organize there from guarimbas, distributing itself in same rubbers, gasoline and "miguelitos" (tacks to burst rubbers of automobiles).

http://babelfish.altavista.com/tr

We've heard of these "guarimbas" previously. Violent protests. The Cuban Venezuelan, Roberto Alonso, who was the host to the 130 Colombian paramilitaries (death squad members) who were brought in by the oligarchy, as per their own testimonies, to break into the National Guard, take weapons, arm 1,500 and stage a military assault, (later sent home to Colombia eventually without further comment, as he said it wasn't their idea, actually, after all) is known as an active proponent of "guarimbas."
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 12:14 PM
Response to Original message
11. Notice that the vote tampering meme is repeated here.
They're setting the stage.
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Pavulon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 01:28 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. Maybe La Revolución
will take an interesting turn..Talk about irony.

What else do you call it when the people remove a guy from office who is setting up to be president for life?
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 02:04 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. That's called deposing a democratically elected president. n/t
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Pavulon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 02:09 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Happens all the time in LA
but at the end of the day it has no impact on the driving factor behind all this. The billions of dollars in oil money is the real issue here.
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. It usually happens exactly like this -- with the US taking the lead.
Watch what happens. This is why we have an illegal immigration problem -- because the US government tanks democracy in Latin America in service of their own corporate interests, with no regard for the long term well being of those people or of us people.

That's how it happens "all the time" -- because the US government makes it happen.
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Andrushka Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 06:22 PM
Response to Reply #19
29. Huh?
Violent coups where hundreds, if not thousands die, with big business leaders setting themselves up as president and scrapping the constitution and dismissing the courts? In LA?

:freak:
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Pavulon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 06:54 PM
Response to Reply #29
31. Happend once, maybe...
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David__77 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 01:55 PM
Response to Original message
17. The reform will pass comfortably.
It won't be close. The opposition polls showed Chavez winning in 2006 because they weren't convinced that there was ANY change of Rosales winning, and many thought the race should have been boycotted. This is more like the 2004 recall election, when opposition polls showed recall winning because they wanted to provoke a coup and mass violence. The polls have crappy methodology. Chavez retains all of his support except for a narrow segment of right-wing social democrats like PODEMOS.
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 03:26 PM
Response to Original message
22. Anyone who's got a minute might want to see the information on the most virulent opposition party,
Primero Justicia. I just discovered today for myself that WE are supporting an opposition party which was actually created right here in this country, and is apparently kept afloat financially through OUR OWN TAX DOLLARS!

This is the G.D. thread:

So American taxpayers financially support Chavez' most vicious opposition party, Primero Justicia!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2384571

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David__77 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 04:01 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. I love how the fascist opposition dresses up as "socialists."
The right-wing always play drag as socialists when they're aiming to topple a progressive government. Then, once they crush the progressives, the real agenda comes rolling out.
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. You know, that's so peculiar! I've seen them doing it multiple times.
Apparently the dumb####s think it's a truly wizard idea!

They should try something so novel it would bewilder everyone: growing up, and acting like decent people for the first time in their lives.

They are so odd, so clumsy, so STUPID, so rigid, unimaginitive, no doubt most people can see right through them, anyway, even when they imagine they are so convincing as "socialists."

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Joanne98 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 04:27 PM
Response to Reply #22
27. NED, IRI what no Reporters without Borders?
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 04:31 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. Yeah, them, too! They tried to deny it for years, but they've been outed. n/t
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 06:53 PM
Response to Reply #27
30. The email I got said 8 million from USAID. n/t
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 06:56 PM
Response to Reply #30
32. They used to claim they got US money from the sale of their booklets.
That would be a whole lot of little booklets per year, wouldn't it?

They've been a total US puppet for years. That figure sounds modest, considering what they've done to get it!

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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 06:59 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. We've spent 8 million dollars to screw with this vote.
I look around my city and see so many things 8 million dollars could fix.
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-01-07 07:05 PM
Response to Reply #33
34. It was appalling to learn Bush spent that much of the taxpayers salaries trying to cheat the people
of Venezuela of their right to elect their own President.

Very shabby behavior by a grown, "Christian" man, isn't it?

It's an ugly way to spsend money taken from US taxpayers by someone who has made a point of claiming how much he wants to protect them and their limited budgets.
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