STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 19 January 2004 (#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday January 19, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 371
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 38 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 90 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 302
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 786
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 16, 2004

Dow... 10,600.51 +46.66 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq... 2,140.46 +31.38 (+1.49%)
S&P 500... 1,139.83 +7.78 (+0.69%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.01% +0.04 (+1.08%)
Gold future... 407.00 -1.70 (-0.42%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[lcordero]

1. Is there a typo here:

REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000 <---is the day count right?

[ozymandius]

4. Congress is in recess. So it is correct.

Thanks for asking.

[cthrumatrix]

2. market closed todal MLK B-Day

[ozymandius]

5. So it is.

Updating the figures will be easier tomorrow morning. I should have known that since I have actual holiday-related plans this afternoon.

[54anickel]

3. Good Morning Ozy, great toon. Sums up the attitude nicely. n/t

[ozymandius]

8. Bush just could not leave this alone.

First he invites himself to Atlanta to lay a wreath at MLK's tomb. He meets privately with Coretta Scott King to discuss who-knows-what. And then he appoints a racist to the circuit court.

Just like last year - Bush* filed an amicus brief on behalf of white racists in the Michigan affirmative action case on MLK's birthday.

Two middle fingers in a row!

[54anickel]

9. I'm afraid we may see more of these brazen moves.....

It seems to appeal to his base. That tough cowboy image - damn protocol - work the system and get all you can.

[54anickel]

6. Wonder if this type of rogue trading is common in currency?

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073281124759

NAB may lose A$600m on rogue trading

The fallout from National Australia Bank’s rogue trading scandal deepened on Monday when it admitted that losses from unauthorised trading in currency derivatives could be as high as A$600m, more than three times its initial estimate.

snip>
The bank stunned the financial community last week when it said that its foreign exchange options team had run up A$180m in losses after being caught out by the unexpectedly sharp strengthening of the Australian and New Zealand dollars late last year. Four foreign exchange dealers at NAB were suspended over what is thought to be Australia's biggest scandal of its kind.

It is believed that the unauthorised trades in options on Australian and New Zealand dollars began last October and escalated after one of the four dealers asked three of his colleagues to help get him out of trouble. Three of the traders were based in Melbourne, where NAB has its headquarters, while the fourth operated from London.

The four traders had been one of the bank’s star teams.

[Maeve]

7. Okay--I've got the day's predictions right here!

Unchanged, across the board! :dunce:
'Sokay, ozy....myYahoo says the markets open later today, too! Guess someone there didn't get the memo, either.

Have a great day!

[ozymandius]

10. Thanks Maeve! Right on with your predictions.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

Have a good one!

[54anickel]

11. New use for the buck-Ad billboard. Guess that's better than toilet paper

http://www.adage.com/news.cms?newsId=39596

NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- Money talks, and now promotes as well: Dollar bills are the medium being used by two independent media specialty companies to reach viewers for new TV shows.

50,000 U.S. bills
New York-based Media Kitchen affixed 50,000 one-dollar bills with peel-off stickers stamped with the air date, time and channel of Traffic: the Miniseries to promote the three-part cable special for its client, USA Network. The bills went into circulation Jan. 8 at bars in New York and Los Angeles.

[JNelson6563]

12. Good morning Marketeers!

Well with things closed today there won't much action I reckon.

That's ok cause I have to take a bit of a sabbatical from ol" DU anyhow. It's crunch time here in Michigan and so help me Bob I am going to see to it we overthrow those fascists in DC if it takes my every waking moment.

I'll peek in occasionally.

You're all great and I just flat out love some of you (yoiu knwo who you are!).

Hugs to all my fellow gamblers, er Marketeers--

Julie

[UpInArms]

13. daily dollar watch

and the market is closed

but here are the numbers anyway (for historical reference)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.71 Change +1.15 (+1.33%)

and some mumbo-jumbo words

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/040118/15/3hcqw.html

Dollar Rebound Likely To Persist This Week

There are few significant data releases in the U.S. or elsewhere this week. One U.S. event with some potential to roil currency markets is U.S. President George W. Bush's State of the Union address on Tuesday, analysts said. U.S. markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

<snip>

"Although the overall trend is to the downside, I think it's probably going to be a fairly slow grind, because at various discrete intervals you're going to see the BOJ on the bid for U.s. dollars as part of their intervention policy," Davis said.

Other market watchers suggested Japan may pull back from its efforts to support the yen in advance of the meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrialized nations on Feb. 6-7 in Boca Raton, Fla.

"The general consensus in the marketplace is that eventually dollar/yen has got to break to the downside and move towards 100 (yen)," Davis said, citing 105.40 and 104.70 yen as support levels for the U.S. dollar, and 106.80 and 107.85 yen as resistance levels.

...more...

http://www.forbes.com/work/newswire/2004/01/18/rtr1216207.html

Flows shock gives dollar faint stabilization hope

Foreigners' net purchases of U.S. assets were a surprisingly large $87.6 billion in November, up strongly from a revised $27.8 billion in October, U.S. Treasury data showed.

With the U.S. running a trade deficit with the rest of the world of about 5 percent of gross domestic product, it needs about $40 billion a month of capital inflows to fund its current account deficit.

The size of that deficit -- a broad measure of the nation's trade -- has been one factor fueling the dollar's sharp decline in the past two years.

<snip>

However, much of the inflow into dollars appears to be coming from buying of U.S. Treasury bonds by Asian central banks, which have been selling their own currencies and buying dollars to try to offset the impact of the dollar's fall on their own economies.

<snip>

If Asian countries were to assent to U.S. requests to tone down their efforts to curb the strength of their currencies at a meeting in Florida in early February of finance ministers of the Group of Seven major industrialized nations, leading to a slowdown in purchases of dollar-denominated assets, the U.S. dollar's slide might resume, analysts warned.

"What we may see in December is another strong (Treasury monthly flows) report, but looking at the first half of January, we see so far an acceleration of foreign net selling of U.S. fixed income, which is likely to continue and overshadow the continued net purchases of U.S. equities," as shown by Bank of New York's proprietary custody data, the Bank of New York's Woolfolk said.

...more...

or as 54anickel says - there's a 50/50 chance of something :)

[54anickel]

14. Love this from the first article - 50/50 chance of Shrub messing it up I

guess. }(

One U.S. event with some potential to roil currency markets is U.S. President George W. Bush's State of the Union address on Tuesday, analysts said.

[DUreader]

15. The "Black Hole" which sucks oil -- Now Ken Lay ties in!

What are your thoughts on this, marketeers? I'll add it tommorrow if you are all gone for today.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1031985


DanSpillane (164 posts)
Sun Jan-18-04 10:29 PM
Original message
The "Black Hole" which sucks oil -- Now Ken Lay ties in!

Edited on Sun Jan-18-04 10:39 PM by DanSpillane

This is NO joke. This is serious economic analysis, for mass consumption.

I added more reference material. NEW Ken Lay connection to homebuilders and GOP-- see sidebar.

See my website.

"Black Hole" Found in US Economy
Contact: Dan Spillane DanSLegal at aol.com Citizens for Corporate Accountability 410 Denny Way #229 Seattle, WA 98122 (206)
860-2858

(Update 11, 01/18/04, editorial)

(SEATTLE) 01/06/04 - In a troubling sign that accounting problems have grown beyond corporate balance sheets, two of the main
economic gauges used by Wall Street, banks, and in the calculation of Social Security payments have been found to contain serious
problems. The makeup or "weightings" of the gauges have been set and modified recently so they hide real inflation. Also, a complicated
"circular" cycle--much like a black hole--has been found within one of the gauges, which not only places the US financial system at risk,
but results in dramatic and permanent increases in demand for energy, at a time when our soldiers are dying overseas because of
energy-related tensions (footnotes).

(more)
www.libertywhistle.us

Citizens For Corporate Accountability is a 'Think Tank' non-profit, dedicated to public interest and the detection of corruption which
endangers the basics of democratic society. It was founded in 2003 by Dan Spillane. The first major issue identified by Mr. Spillane,
Electronic Voting Reform, has gotten significant national media attention subsequent to Mr. Spillane raising concerns to Congress and a
number of activists since the summer of 2002. It was recently revealed that significant problems exist nationwide in this area--as a result,
several new bills are pending for the 2004 Congress.

http://www.libertywhistle.us

[Robbien]

16. So they made changes in the weightings

so that heath insurance was given less weight. Then more weight was given to “Recreational Reading Materials”, “Pets”, and “Toys.” And the weight of heath insurance is now less than its 1995's weight? Of course CPI and PPI would not be increasing.

Didn't Bush do these same type of changes in the Texas smoke and mirrors books?

[54anickel]

17. I've mentioned this in other posting regarding the CNN link in the article

Look at how they are figuring the cost of housing. If these cooked "low inflation" numbers continue to be promoted and the economic reports begin to hint at a slow down, I'm afraid Greenjeans may well LOWER rates. All of this artificial stimulus has created a monster that will required continuous huge feedings. A vicious cycle until something finally gives.

[Robbien]

18. The CPI/PPI numbers have not seemed reasonable

I must have missed your post and am glad the issue was reposted.

The rumblings out there of financial disater are getting louder. Just read this short blurb on Reuters

Investment bank JP Morgan Chase is offering some staff the chance to delay receiving their bonuses in dollars to prevent a potential collapse in the value of their compensation packages, the Financial Times said.

The bank has given employees an extra two months to decide whether they want their bonuses paid in U.S. dollars or in their local currency, the report said.

Bonuses for many bankers are calculated in dollars, regardless of the country in which they work, but the recent slide in the dollar against major currencies has wiped out some of this year's payment.

The extension is being offered to JP Morgan's 10,000 employees in the UK. In continental Europe, where the company has about 15,000 employees, it will be decided case by case, depending on the laws of the country, the FT said.

So JP is now openly betting against the dollar.

[54anickel]

19. It was posted in LBN I think, not SMW. It's actually making the rounds

pretty good, I've seen it in 2 or 3 different posts - it's a good thing.

I don't know if I would read this as them betting against the buck, it seems to be recognizing the uncertainly. Seems the standard has been dollars and now they are offering an option. Do you have a link or was this all there was?

20. It's actually very serious

Besides the fact that the PPI "chrismas in july" move is in violation of BLS written policy...

Like, what if the Chinese or Japanese find out they have been duped on US bonds?

When you put all the trends together, based on my reseaarch, you see there is a "black hole" which is driving the economy, sales of huge homes and SUVs due to low interest rates--all the while, the inflation keeps going up to fuel the SUVs and big homes--all the while, the inflation is hidden by he quirk due to big homes...but is driving jobs overseas. (Read twice, I know this is circular, but THAT is the problem).

Besides the Fed, I understand Congress doesn't get it. They recently were trying to see if there was price fixing in the natural gas market. How about demand due to ZILLIONS OF HUGE HOMES DUE TO ULTRA LOW INTEREST RATES! Duh!

How could anything be worse? And our brothers and sisters are dying overseas to feed the great energy beast we created at home. That beast will live on for many many years no matter who is in the White House!

Oh I forgot--no jobs. Who's gonna pay for all this?

I updated the article once more.Study all the articles and research on my web page to see the trend.

[54anickel]

21. Hi Dan, thanks for chiming in. Yes, it is very serious and as I said, I'm

glad to see both your article and the CNN one making the rounds in LBN and the Economics forum.

The job picture seems to just keep getting worse as well. We've lost most manufacturing, at least the decent paying ones. IT professionals, programmers, help desks, analysts, etc have been farmed out. Now I see the next group will be financial analysts starting with JP Morgan setting the trend. Hmmm, all those market pundits had best stop cheering the great earnings without pointing the costs to the US economy, huh.

As far as the Chinese and Japanese being duped, I give them more credit than that. I get caught into the who's duping who here argument. Of course I'm more of a CT than most.

Good to hear from you here in the SMW thread.

22. I think there are a lot of analogies

We put blind trust in the voting system certification(my issue last year)...guess what?

Now this is pretty much the same with the inflation statistics. So many things riding on the CPI, and it turns out, it isn't what it claims to be.

I went back and looked to previous years, and it is really bad. The "home utilities" portion of the index was much LARGER when according to other statistics, homes were much SMALLER. Completely the opposite of what they should be! Now price varying is one part, but that doesn't explain it--in fact, energy costs seem to outpace inflation.

So someone is really trying to nudge down those inflation numbers artificially. And somebody wants the US to eat energy and big houses reaaaaaaaaaaaaaal bad.

Everyone is so shocked at first when they find out...check for yourself.

Speaking of voting, you should see what my legal research for election 2000 turned up. Something that wasn't in the news...(tease tease).

[54anickel]

23. How far back into previous years did you go? What did it look

like in those booming Clinton years of the Tech bubble? Just curious how far back this goes. Some was proposed earlier to take effect this year, right?

24. It does look like that

It looks to me the numbers were drifting in the wrong direction way back since Bush I, actually.

Don't forget, the supposed "new economy" of the 90s was based on

"Great Earnings"
"Low inflation"

The first is gone.
Now as for the second, there seems to be one leftover of accounting which needs review....

Dan
p.s. Oddly, according to my research, that is about the same time the voting certification started to go bad (1991)....

[KoKo]

25. Thanks Dan. My Real Estate perusals in key spots I'm familiar with bear

out much of what you say. Cold Winter in the South...unusually so..but mostly heated with Natural Gas. McMansions springing up like mushrooms and even more in the last two years and last year particularly....which is "after the Bubble." Money's coming from somewhere...doesn't add up.

Articles in my local Boom South area newpaper are cautioning that retail is down...this in the area where I just rode past another sign with "McMansions 5,000 sq. ft. coming soon 2.5M to 4.5M. They already got a couple under construction. And, that's after noticing that the latest 2003 Development with "Homes in the 1M to 2.5M range after being a little lackluster suddenly sold over the Christmas Holidays. Every day new job losses and merger announcements and yet folks are buy houses but not not clothes or other gew gaws from the Department stores.

Something just doesn't add up...

26. Exactly....the black hole explains some of this nicely

Anecdotally, there are 200 condos suddenly for sale in Seattle.

27. Inflation number cooking started with Reagan/Bush I

This is looking reaaaaaaaaaaaaaal bad.

I did a double check and the continual lowering of the house/util fuel(and piped gas) component of the CPI went on since Reagan I/Bush I and Bush I, through the Clinton years, but seemed to flatten--and now has picked up more--for example with the moving winter into summer last year under Bush II, and also with the ten percent drop from my article.

So its fair to say, the problem is a very very big one. If you consider, all the while, there has been a 50 percent square footage increase in house size, and a move towards single-family. This says there is something VERY WRONG with the statistics, over the long run!!!! And the numbers got cooked most under Reagan/BushI and now under Bush II!!!

I guess they had to hide the energy costs somehow so there would be ever more demand for big houses, and in turn, demand for more energy.

So they cooked the inflation numbers starting with Reagan.

HOUSING UTILITIES INCLUDING ENERGY HAVE MUCH LESS WEIGHTING AS BACK THEN, BUT THERE ARE MORE SINGLE FAMILY HOMES WHICH ARE MUCH BIGGER.

Cookie bookie!!!! This is a big find!

[54anickel]

28. Came with "supply side" economics theory. Makes sense to me.

The first iteration was implemented by Raygun. Got things steaming right along midway thru the first term and on into the second. Started to peter out during Bush I. Certainly would not those volatile commodities messing up the measures of inflation, would we.

Supply side story - think it's true, was told to me by an economics professor who didn't seem the type to pass on something not true and certainly had NO sense of humor - Was introduced at some political function to an aid of the Sec of Treas by a student of economics on a cocktail napkin. Go figure.

31. Total corruption

The CPI is the basis for Social Security payments (when it is reported lower, they are less).

People take out trillions of dollars of loans based on the CPI.

Utterly corrupt for them to mess with it.

And then Japan and China buy the bonds...were they defrauded?

[54anickel]

29. OK, I give. Can't find anything on your site for 2000 selection. n/t

30. It's not on my site yet

I wrote an Amicus Curiae for a law suit in California. I will post it.

[Robbien]

32. Dan, please review my explantory posts

in your thread in GD. I tried to put what you said into everyday words since people were having problems and asked for some simplification.

I thought it was a great idea to post a thread there where there are many people not interested in economics. This subject needs to get to a wider audience. They seemed to be very interested.

edit: nevermind I see you got there already. Scary stuff

[DUreader]

33. Thanks everyone for hashing this out here, very interesting