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They'd no more put XOs in the hands of kids without a raft of legislation, a 500 page manual, and a whole "safe surfing" "cover your ass" liability avoidance infrastructure, than they would underspend their budgets or limit themselves to a two hour lunch. That's the main reason the XO will be great for developing nations, where kids will be allowed to use the machines, and here, where kids are wrapped in cotton wool like precious eggs, while lawyers decide how we should all live.
I see your point about calculators, but they are very much single application devices (even the fancy scientific and financial ones). All you can do with them is manipulate numbers and read them on a tiny screen. General purpose computers, on the other hand, have an infinite range of applications. Any single-application product is inevitably going to become commoditized, because there are only so many ways you can do just one thing. If software developers keep coming up with ways of using all the horsepower of new PCs, however, people will continue to plunk down the cash for the latest and greatest hardware. It's not just about people not being able to process huge amounts of information, it's about computers becoming fast enough and software becoming sophisticated enough to do much of the processing themselves, so that their output becomes a limited range of optimized choices (knowledge rather than data). OK, ok, it's a pipedream and such systems are a long way off (except in a few specialized areas), but my point is that today's most sophisticated applications are toys compared to what can be created. We're building Model-Ts compared to the Mercedes S-Classes our children will be constructing. I think there's still a long way to go before general purpose computing becomes commoditized to the same extent as pocket calculators.
This all presumes that no disruptive shift will occur, of course. If we're all suddenly computing on a cloud of ubiquitous nanoparticles that float around the earth in a huge cloud, all bets are off.
Of course, I could be talking crap. I recently read that Sony is worried about Asus' Eee PC causing a "flight to the bottom" among consumers, increasing demand for cheap PCs at the expense of fast, shiny, expensive ones (like most of Sony's overpriced Vaio range). It could be that we're seeing the beginning of the phenomenon you're talking about. If people decide they don't want photorealistic videogames, full-immersion VR, real time animation rendering, or whatever new whizz-bang application is coming down the pike next, there really is no reason to spend $5,000 on some firebreathing Alienware laptop or $17,000 on a fully-specced Mac Pro.
The next few years will determine which of us is right. Neither, I suspect. ;)
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