STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 20 February (#1)

[ozymandius]

Friday February 20, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 339
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY...
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 70 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 122 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 334
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 818
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Nabbed: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 19, 2004

Dow... 10,664.73 -7.26 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq... 2,045.96 -30.51 (-1.47%)
S&P 500... 1,147.06 -4.76 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.05% +0.00 (+0.07%)
Gold future... 410.30 -2.60 (-0.63%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

"Go Ahead, Speculate. But You Should Have a Pocket Full of NASDAQ Puts"
Nasdaq Showing Technical Weakness – The Sequel

Those short of the stock market have been practically run out of town. In spite of valuations and fundamentals, short sellers have been tossed around, beaten, and stomped on for almost a year and a half now. I don’t know any one who even has any short positions at the moment. Even fundamental bears seem almost eager to discuss which sectors and stocks they are buying. American and world business, as measured by the action of the stock market, has never been so universally successful. Consider that there were 655 highs listed in Wednesday’s Investors Business Daily (IBD), and only seven (7) new lows. Looking at the broad market, it seems as if the laws of supply and demand and competition have been repealed forever. Hey Joe Six-Pack. Prosperity baby! Want proof? Look at the stock market. Want more proof? Look at the economic data from the government. They’re confirming each other!

My goal tonight is to take a technical look at the most important stock market index of this era – the Nasdaq from a short (days to weeks), medium (weeks to months), and long-term (years) perspective. This technical analysis shows that the Nasdaq is showing technical weakness. The index sits at a level where there is weakness from all three general time frames, which I will illustrate tonight. In my view, those people tempted and/or compelled by their profession to speculate long in the stock market should go ahead and speculate. But in order to manage risk while providing potential significant reward, I suggest you also carry a pocket full of cheap Nasdaq puts. Here’s why.

<cut>
More Technical Weakness – Action of Cisco (CSCO)

A clear technical Nasdaq leader of the rally has been Cisco. Again, I’ll reference a “Major Technical Principle” by Pring (page 351). “When several closely related securities are being led by one of the group and that leader fails to confirm a new high, this is usually a sign of exhaustion and is followed by a trend reversal.” I’ll take this opportunity to suggest that Cisco’s stock action is not about routers and switches as much as it is the Nasdaq with a magnifying glass on it.

More Potential Short Term Weakness – The “Joe Six Pack Factor”

In addition to feeling happy and smart of late, Joe Six Pack makes his investment decisions in mutual funds via his 401K based on TV video and sound bites, and the balance in his quarterly statement. Mutual fund inflows have been very healthy of late (1). The basic reason he owns Nasdaq technology-based mutual funds is primarily, “they’re going up!” With the Nasdaq at about 2,000, at the New Year, he is likely to note that since his last statement, his balance is less and, “they’re not going up any more!” He also remembers that the last time he liquidated in the face of a precipitous Nasdaq drop, it was easy. One phone call did it! If the Nasdaq finishes below 2,000 following March 31st, it could provoke similar selling action on the part of the public.

more...

[ozymandius]

2. JOE'S DINER

This week's theme: "Bullish Market for Energy & Commodities Continues"

The United States is skating on the edge of another big jump in natural-gas prices this spring - perhaps even a shortage that, depending upon the weather and its severity, could leave residents shivering and cause some industrial customers to curtail operations.

World economies could buckle if market delivers new oil shock.

"I can't imagine one country in the world could screw up the economy this much. What the hell are they building over there?" says Don Lawrence, purchasing agent for George L. Wilson & Co., a North Side building materials distributor. "China is basically screwing up the world market for steel prices right now."

As most investors continue to chase a rising stock market some smart money is betting strong gold prices won't be giving up any ground soon. Many pros believe that the more time gold hovers above $400 per ounce, the more likely its price could hit $500 before year end.

each paragraph includes a link to the source story

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.33 Change +0.38 (+0.44%)

related articles

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/02/20/rtr1268995.html

Dollar hits 6-wk high on yen, rolls back euro

LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to six-week highs against the yen and two-week peaks versus the euro on Friday as investors snapped up the greenback to cover oversold positions after months of dumping it against a wide range of currencies.

Analysts viewed this as a temporary pause in the dollar's two-year downtrend but said the euro's inability to hold recent record highs meant its potential to reach new peaks had diminished in the short term.

<snip>

Traders said short term players such as momentum and hedge funds drove much of the latest demand for dollars, bolstering the perception this did not yet amount to a turning point for the greenback.

"We are seeing a broad correction now, which is mainly technical," said Trevor Dinmore, foreign exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank in London. "The price action above $1.29 (per euro) was disappointing and convinced some players that we may not see an immediate move to $1.30."

"We had pretty extreme short dollar positions in the market. But this does not alter the fundamental perspective and we remain bearish on the dollar. The correction could go on for several weeks."

Analysts said the corrective mood for the dollar began when the European Central Bank voiced concerns over the euro's rally, warning against excess volatility in currency markets. The single currency is still about 50 percent higher than its record lows on the dollar set in 2000. This week, fresh comments from European officials fuelled nervousness that the ECB could intervene by selling euros.

...more - with a list of Fed Reserve speakers and the times of their speeches...

and

Dollar leaps broadly higher in technical rebound

LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - The dollar stormed to a six-week high against the yen and hit a two-week peak versus the euro in early European trade on Friday as dealers bought back the U.S. currency after weeks of selling it across the board.

"We are seeing an unwinding of short dollar positions," said Mark McFarland, currency strategist at UBS. "The market is taking a breather before its next assault on $1.30."

With persistent intervention from Japan appearing successful in halting the dollar's slide against the yen, many traders were giving up on their short dollar positions, at least for now.

...more...

Well, I guess a value of 86.00 is now HUGE for our once mighty dollar! WOW! We're rich! We're Dollar-aires!

Have a Great Day Ozy and all you Marketeers! :hi:

[54anickel]

4. A technical rebound? WTF? n/t

[aneerkoinos]

14. meaning perhaps

BoJ intervening materially and ECB linguistically, and others riding along. Yen going for dip of 109-110 possibly? Weekly and perhaps even monthly trends are decided by blather, rumours and observation, fibonacci(?) and other mechanics, players being day- and weektraders...

What is seen not only in this thread but also in capital volumes, the currency game is nowdays becoming more fun than the stocks... so with all this public interest the volatility in currency games is just going to increase, I guess, going jittery and nervous and all the things ECB don't like but smart money loves... :D

The official truth is now that dollar is great investement, these soundings keep popping up everywhere, whaddayasay? :)

[UpInArms]

16. Good Morning aneerkoinos!

I believe you have stated something very clearly for the watchers :)

The old "buy low - sell high" theory may be in play -

The traders seem to think that the BoJ will continue intervening, so they go in and scoop it low, hoping to sell to the BoJ for a profit?

This could work for a while, and if the Fed raises rates the dollar will increase in value, making their bet pay off.

We'll see what the Fed Govs and Greenspin say today - that should set the tone until the next economic calendar reporting is underway.

(jmho)

[54anickel]

24. I'm thinking Snow and Greenspin aren't very happy right now. Whaddaya

think?

They were seeing some progress on the declining dollar, of course it didn't make a dent in the account balance yet, but they seem to want the dollar to go down.

Now suppose the dollar stays around 86 or above, and the economic reports start to push for a raise in the rates. Won't that just blow the entire idea of a lower dollar out the window? Will they then switch the mantra again to strong dollar, deficits don't matter? That will make Greenspin look like some wavering fool, since his last lecture against high deficits. Will they be forced to try another Plaza Accord? What's that going to do for confidence in the US$?

I am truly getting dizzy trying to follow these guys. No wonder Greenspin is against SEC oversight of hedgefunds and pro derivatives. Seems those are part of the secret toolkit these days.

[UpInArms]

5. Rising energy costs boost U.S. consumer prices in Jan

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={2E6914E2-C3C4-4861-A7CB-CBF018B8A28F}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Consumer prices rose a sharp 0.5 percent in January, the Labor Department reported Friday. This is the largest gain in the CPI since Feb. 2003. Over three-fourths of the increase in the consumer price index came from higher energy costs, which rose 4.7 percent. Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 0.2 percent in January. Over the past 12 months, the CPI has risen 1.9 percent. The core rate is up 1.1 percent. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.3 percent and the core rate to rise 0.1 percent.

[salin]

6. Does this mean

that even the attempts to deflate the rise of the index by deweighting factors that are known to be rising (eg health care, college/education costs, energy costs)... can't fully mask the rate of inflation anymore? That would seem to indicate that the real rate of increase is much higher (but hidden from the govt reported numbers due to the changing of the formula on the weights given to different categories.)

[UpInArms]

7. the continued delay in reporting the PPI

makes me very curious, indeed.

In another article - they said that groceries had not increased. That is such a lie! Do these people never go to the store?

[salin]

8. wonder how they reweighted it?

Is there any doubt that they have?

lets see... we should give greater weight to toilet paper ... people really expend a great percentage on that... and lets decrease the weight of milk and dairy products... lets give greater weight to sodas b/c folks consume much more of this as a percentage of their grocery spending... while we decrease the weight of produce... :shrug:

[Timefortruth]

21. How do they decide this stuff?

Make it up as they go along?

[Frodo]

37. What are you basing it on?

I've moved and prices here are different, so I can't compare.

But I've been reading a lot of articles lately talking about grocery prices staying down (or even decreasing) because of WalMart getting into the business and other chains having no pricing power.

[UpInArms]

11. here's some more blather regarding the CPI

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?storyID=4403093&type=economicNews

excerpt:

CARY LEAHEY, SENIOR U.S. ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES, NEW YORK:

"For the economy, this is a good report. For the bond market it's a bad report. The inflation readings are a little higher than forecast. It looks as if some of it may be due to an increase in tobacco.

"At this stage of the ball game, as far as the economy is concerned, you probably want to see core CPI readings of +0.2 percent or so to push us above the +0.1 percent threshold we've been seeing on core CPI.

"The bond market took this report as a sign that core inflation may be bottoming and the Fed may still be in the tightening business later this year. But you probably need to see at least two out of the next three core CPI readings to be up 0.2 or more to say that you've bottomed."

BRIAN TAYLOR, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING, MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS BANK, BUFFALO, NEW YORK:

"I am seeing the fact that the (CPI) numbers came in a little bit higher (than expected) means there is some type of threat of inflation that could rear its head. That is spilling over into the currency market as there is the possibility of rates rising. We see the possibility that the Fed could come in and raise rates sooner than people had anticipated and that is playing into the dollar strengthening this morning."

STEPHEN STANLEY, CHIEF ECONOMIST, RBS GREENWICH CAPITAL MARKETS INC., GREENWICH, CONNECTICUT:

"It is premature to suggest it (inflation) is turning up. It is leveling out from last year when it moderated. If core price inflation stabilizes and once employment increases at a decent clip, the Fed has room to raise rates."

[twilight]

27. Great news for I bond holders!

Gee, and to think I was considering dumping some of my I bonds in a few months ... NOT (presently paying 6.59%!!) ! :D



... look out below Greenie, the sky is a fallin! :D

:evilgrin:

:dem: :kick:

[ozymandius]

9. Sorry to be so brief.

My day is full already. I might be able to drop back in later this afternoon. In any case, have a wonderful day at the Casino and a great weekend Marketeers!

:hi:

Ozymandius

[Coventina]

10. The "I Ching" on today's market

Good morning everyone!

Today's reading is OBSTACLES changing to AFTER THE END. ATE is not a hexagram I have ever seen before!

Anyway, here is the changing line from OBSTACLES: "If you have met with an obstacle in your path, do not attempt to overcome it. Instead wait out the trouble. You will know the right moment for action when you can move with ease."

Here is a quote from ATE: "Those engaged in business or political affairs should be particularly cautioned. It is the time After The End of what has been a long-term tendency. Careers that are at their apex may undergo a major transition; long-established processes or products could be eclipsed. Your vigilance and attention can arm you against misfortune."

Very interesting. I am going to predict a fairly stagnent market for today.

Happy weekend everybody!!!
:hi:

[54anickel]

15. A very interesting read today.

Downright scary while researching the K-wave theory. :scared:

[UpInArms]

12. 10:00 EST market status report

Dow 10,654.88 -9.85 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,034.82 -11.14 (-0.54%)
S&P 500 1,145.77 -1.29 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.048% -0.004

[JNelson6563]

13. Mornin' Marketeers!

Interesting situation today, eh? 10:04:

Dow 10,656.44 -8.29 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,036.52 -9.44 (-0.46%)
S&P 500 1,146.11 -0.95 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.059% +0.007

Not very pretty. Could turn ugly fast. Of course, now that the dollar is so strong now....one just never knows. haha

Julie

[UpInArms]

17. here are the numbers at 11:30

Dow 10,608.74 -55.99 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,027.57 -18.39 (-0.90%)
S&P 500 1,140.96 -6.10 (-0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 4.101% +0.049

[JNelson6563]

18. Pretty sharp drop

but I think you may havemeant "10:30"? It's 11:07 now and here's a picture that isn't very nice:


Dow 10,617.41 -47.32 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,031.56 -14.40 (-0.70%)
S&P 500 1,142.60 -4.46 (-0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.096% +0.044


Julie

[UpInArms]

19. dylexic fingers -

should have been 11:03 EST.

and here's the poop on the delayed PPI report

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/02/19/rtr1267234.html

excerpt:

ECONOMIC INDICATORS:

Department of Labor postpones January PPI release until next week. No date set.

[UpInArms]

25. market report at 2:18 EST

Dow 10,641.70 -23.03 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,042.36 -3.60 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,146.59 -0.47 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.104% +0.052

and a side of blather:

2:00PM: The market has improved in the last half an hour, as Fed Chairman Dr. Greenspan delivered reassuring comments regarding the job market, saying that it's improving and is expected to continue picking up... Job growth has been a point of contention for the market, as bears have been pointing to the employment market as a missing component in the recovery, while the bulls have been saying that significant jobs growth is around the corner...

Briefing.com, for its part, thinks jobs growth has a tendency to lag the market and believes the employment picture has been demonstrating signs of stabilization... The Employment report for February will be reported on March 5... Based on the leveling off in the Initial Claims numbers over the past 4 weeks, Briefing.com believes non-farm payrolls are likely to be in the 150K range... NYSE Adv/Dec 920/2298, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 958/2125

Greenspin holding the market's hand as he lies through his false teeth.

[UpInArms]

20. Treasuries recoil as dollar climbs on Japan report

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?storyID=4403980&type=bondsNews

NEW YORK, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Treasuries recoiled on Friday as a jump in the dollar was seen as reducing the likelihood of intervention from Asian central banks, suggesting they would have less dollars to invest in U.S. debt.

Asian central banks, and particularly the Bank of Japan, have been huge buyers of Treasuries in recent months as they sought to limit export-damaging gains in their currencies against a sliding dollar.

But the dollar rallied sharply on the yen on Friday after the Associated Press reported that Japan had raised its terror alert status to its highest level and deployed heavily armed police to airports and nuclear facilities.

That led traders to assume the BOJ would have less need to intervene, a blow to bonds given the central bank has easily been the biggest single buyer of Treasuries in the last year.

...more...

[54anickel]

22. Raised alert seems more like a precautionary measure than a response

to any direct threat or intelligence. So far at least.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-3770386,00.html

snip>
The National Police Agency official refused to discuss whether the government had new information about a possible terror strike.

snip>
The tighter security comes as Japan deploys 1,000 air, sea and ground forces for a humanitarian mission to Iraq - its largest military deployment since World War II. In coming months, about 500 ground troops are expected to be sent to the southern Iraqi city of Samawah to purify water and rebuild schools and roads.

Japan was among the first to back the U.S.-led war against Iraq. Many Japanese worry that cooperating with U.S.-led coalition forces in Iraq could make Japan a more likely target for terrorists.

In October and November of last year, Japan issued a series of travel advisories and alerts for citizens living abroad after threats purportedly made by the al-Qaida terrorist network to attack U.S. allies.

snip>
Beginning in late December, Japanese police tightened security at hundreds of facilities nationwide during the new year holidays, and officers went on round-the-clock watch at train and subway stations and shipping docks. The precautions were later eased.

[54anickel]

23. Bit more from CNN

I missed the reports of Tuesday night explosions in Tokyo :shrug:

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/02/20/japan.alert.reut/

snip>
There were two late-night explosions near the Defense Ministry in Tokyo this week, which police said could have been carried out in a protest at the dispatch of Japanese troops to Iraq.

snip>
No damage or injuries were caused by Tuesday's explosions.

A leftist group calling itself "Kakumeigun" (Revolutionary Army) sent letters to Japanese media claiming responsibility, Kyodo news agency said Friday. The group said it was resorting to violence to prevent the deployment of Japanese troops to Iraq, Kyodo said.

[54anickel]

26. Bernanke needs a history lesson.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/02/20/rtr1269547.html

Stable economy from Fed policy, not luck-Bernanke

WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben Bernanke said on Friday lessons policy-makers have learned from the past have done more to establish a stable economic environment than mere luck.

Weighing in on a debate over whether a reduction in the volatility of inflation and output since the 1970s was caused by smaller economic shocks, structural changes in the economy or better policy, Bernanke came down firmly on the side of policy.

"Improvements in monetary policy, though certainly not the only factor, have probably been an important source of the Great Moderation," he said in remarks prepared for a luncheon sponsored by the Eastern Economic Association.

"In particular, it is not obvious that economic shocks have become significantly smaller or more infrequent, as required by the good-luck hypothesis," he said.

more...

[54anickel]

28. Is this pointing to rates increasing sooner rather than later?

:shrug: I'm getting confused by this stuff. Saw another blurb from Old Ben that the threat of deflation still exists. (I'll try to find that again).

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=auc56SZ7go3k&refer=news_index

Treasury Notes Decline as Consumer Prices and the Dollar Rise
Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell in New York as the consumer price index rose more than forecast and the U.S. dollar advanced to a two-month high against the Japanese yen.

Faster inflation, which erodes the value of a bond's fixed payment over time, would give the Federal Reserve a reason to raise its target interest rate for the first time since 2000. A decline in the yen's value means the Bank of Japan -- the biggest buyer among central banks of U.S. government bonds -- may be able to slow the sale of its currency, leaving it with fewer dollars with which to buy Treasuries.

``We do believe the Fed is ultimately going to be successful'' in reflating the economy, and a Fed rate increase this year is ``a strong likelihood,'' said Thomas Girard, who helps manage about $14.5 billion in fixed-income assets at Weiss Peck & Greer LLC in New York. And given the yen's drop, ``What's the need for intervention then? There's less dollars to get plowed back into the Treasury market.''

more...


Here's that Bernanke Blurb - Earlier this month, the 4th? he stated the risk of deflation had retreated substantially. So I guess we are still in limbo on the matter.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/marketPulse.asp?doctype=-1&siteid=mktw&mp=1

1:59pm 02/20/04 Bernanke: Jan. CPI consistent with low inflation By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The January consumer price index data, which came in above analysts' expectations, was no cause for alarm, said Federal Reserve Gov. Ben Bernanke. "The numbers were consistent with continuing low inflation," Bernanke told reporters after a speech Friday. He said that it is "too soon to tell" if deflationary trends have bottomed.

[twilight]

29. my credit union ...

My credit union raised rates on 5-year CDs 2 mos. ago to 5.25% - the highest rate in the nation.

I will only add to this statement that this credit union is a DoD one that I got into years ago during a very brief employment stint with the U.S. Army.

Duh ...

They have "tipped" me off more than once in the 23 years I've been banking with them (like advised me to get out of the stock market in early 2001! ... ???????????????).

They also very recently told me to expect CD rates to continue to climb due to the massive deficits btw ...

What to make of this? The powers that be already know! :tinfoilhat: perhaps?

:dem: :kick:

[54anickel]

30. Hello Twilight.

:hi:
5.25% sounds pretty darn high compared to what we've seen for so long. 5-years is a long time though, so I would imagine they are betting on rates going even higher in a shorter time :shrug:

I keep a extra amount of tinfoil on hand these days. B-)

[twilight]

32. 5-years BUT ...

Yes, 5 years is a long time but I've had those I bonds for 3 years already and it seems like just yesterday that I bought them. Also bought a 4-year CD 2 years ago - 2 more to go on that one at 4.75% interest.

The best thing about this place is that if you cash out early, the penalty is 6 mos. forfeiture of interest rather than a full year like the bank Washington Mutual hits you for :puke: . However, the other CDs I have (3 year ones coming due soon) are paying ~5.00% anyway.

So, 5.25% is looking ok to me for 5 years.

I cannot imagine what the economy will be like in 5 years, esp. if * gets reSelected. :shrug: I really don't know what to do, but I've not been liking the stock market since I sold out in early 2001.

It's a gamble, and a risky one at that.

Cheers!

twilight

:dem: :kick:

[54anickel]

33. Agree with you on that. The market is risky these days.

It's a wise choice to stagger your long-term investments as you did. And if my bank was offering 5.25 on anything, I would venture to put some money in as well. My main point was that they are betting on rates going up, hence the 5.25 offering.

I was in the market thru my 401K until last October when I was permanantly laid-off. I did not get dinged too bad in the 2000 crash as was pretty conservative, and managed to more than make up the losses while still in - just dumb luck on my part.

When I rolled the 401K over my investment guy wanted me to get it all back in the market, but I'm waiting it out. Right now my strategy is capital preservation instead of trying to make lots of dough.

As far as the economy if Shrub gets in, I don't even want to venture a guess.

[54anickel]

31. 3:34 numbers and blather

Dow 10,630.15 -34.58 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,042.00 -3.96 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,145.27 -1.79 (-0.16%)
30-yr Bond 4.953% +0.044


blather

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040220/51384aa1c5fa646e8002f3d1779c4bb1_1.html
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks bounced off session lows late Friday as Fed officials worked to calm inflation worries sparked by a sharp rise in consumer prices, and reactionary selling in response to news of a heighten terror alert in Japan ran its course.

But brief forays into positive territory for both the Dow and Nasdaq, the indexes have again swung below the flat line, although they remain well above their lows for the session.

"The market sold off early in response to CPI number, and then the immediate fears that followed the news out of Japan," said David Hegarty, head of equity trading at Commerzbank Securities. "But the Fed's sticking to its positive view of the job situation, and the subsequent strength of the dollar has helped settle things."

[54anickel]

34. Add Elaine Chao to your list of clueless (if you haven't already)

http://www.dhonline.com/articles/2004/02/20/news/nation/nat02.txt

Democrats accuse Bush and his advisers of caring more about the stock market than the jobs market.

They point to Feb. 6 remarks by Labor Secretary Elaine Chao after a report showing 112,000 jobs were created in January, fewer than the 150,000 that had been forecast. Economists called the report disappointing.

"The stock market is, after all, the final arbiter. And the stock market was very strong this morning in reaction to the news that we have just received," Chao told CNN.

[54anickel]

35. Greenspin see signs....whatever

(italic emphasis is mine)

http://www.truthabouttrade.org/article.asp?id=1368

The nation may be on the verge of an improving job market, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in Omaha Friday.

"We have seen "encouraging signs of late that the labor market is improving," Greenspan told about 1,000 people at the Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce's annual meeting in the exhibit hall of the Omaha Convention Center. "In all likelihood, employment will begin to increase more quickly before long as output continues to expand."

Yet nearly 2 million Americans have been unemployed for more than a year, he said. "We have reason to be confident that new jobs will displace old ones as they always have, but America's job-turnover process is never without pain for those caught in the job-losing portion."

Greenspan has been chairman since 1987. His 14-year term on the board ends June 20, and he is widely expected to be reappointed.

more.....

[54anickel]

36. Closing numbers and the blather

Dow 10,619.03 -45.70 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,037.93 -8.03 (-0.39%)
S&P 500 1,144.11 -2.95 (-0.26%)
30-yr Bond 4.953% +0.044

Close: Buyers stuck to the sidelines for most of the session, as indecision and valuation concerns continued to plague the market, like they have through most of this week... Today's decline took all of the major averages to a close below last Friday's totals, shaping up for the fifth consecutive down week for the Nasdaq... The degree of the volatility through the session was magnified by the thin volume, as well as today's options expiration...

Overall, the broader market took its cue for trading from the Nasdaq, as the tech composite flirted with its 50-day simple moving average at 2039 through most of the session and closed below the technically significant level, leaving the Nasdaq vulnerable to further downside... Also limiting the market's advance in today's session was the CPI report, which checked in at a higher than expected 0.5% (consensus 0.3%) and excluding food and energy at 0.2% (consensus 0.1%), turning the market's attention from disinflationary worries to inflationary worries...

While one month's data does not make a trend and inflation is not about to start surging, today's data merited attention, particularly in the face of high energy prices and a stronger global economy that could lead to higher inflation numbers and - eventually - higher interest rates... The trend in the year/year core CPI remains weak, yet if the core rate change stays at 0.2% for a few months, inflation will reemerge as a market concern, impacting the 10-year note yield (please see the Economic Briefing for more perspective)... Today, the bond market pulled back, with the 10-year note closing down 16/32, bringing its yield up to 4.09%...

Have a great weekend everyone! :hi: