There's a broad sector breakdown in the Oregonian, but I'm guessing that the regional variations are (like California's) quite extreme.
There's also an odd matter of increases in the labor force:
Rapid growth of the state labor force is a trend particular to Oregon that captivates Potiowsky and other economists. Nonworking spouses and others are emerging from the woodwork to seek employment. Oregon's labor force gained 58,000 between March 2008 and March this year, while the state lost 77,000 jobs during those 12 months. That's a 3 percent increase in the labor force and a 4.2 percent decrease in employment.
"That is a sizable discrepancy that is contributing to the unemployment-rate increases," said Josh Lehner, an analyst at the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. "Compare that to the U.S. overall, where the labor force increased 264,000 -- up 0.2 percent -- while employment declined 5.1 million -- down 3.5 percent."
State population growth, or in-migration, is not the main cause. "We're getting more and more households joining the labor force," Potiowsky said. "Even the 20-year-old that lives in the basement and watches TV all day is being asked to go out and work." Retirees who might have worked part time or not at all are ginning up resumes. "Folks that had retired are going, 'Oh my gosh, my 401(k) is gone,'" said Jerry Cohen, state director of AARP Oregon, a nonprofit with members 50 and older.
As Oregon's unemployment rate spirals, "You just start to wonder at what point do people start to leave" for other states, said Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economist. Duy, who publishes the UO Index of Economic Indicators, had thought until Monday that the state rate might top out around 13 percent, considered that scenario fairly pessimistic. With the latest jump, he's thinking more like 14 percent -- or even 15.
Mark McMullen, a Moody's Economy.com director in Lake Oswego, disagrees. "Our baseline outlook doesn't have it rising much higher than it is now," he said, "stopping just short of 13 percent." McMullen expects the labor force to stop growing as the high unemployment rate scares off potential job seekers. He sees "green shoots starting to show" in Oregon's economy, as tech firms attract investment and as Eugene, for example, ramps up public construction. "We expect Oregon to have a relatively strong recovery compared to other states," McMullen said.
More:
http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/04/oregon_jobless_rate_hits_121_p.htmlAlso, as to your Kunstler link- I enjoy his material, even though he has a way with histrionics. For example, in the Long Emergency, one his drawbacks for living in the post peak oil Northwest was Asian pirates raid along the coast! LOL.
One should probably read him with a grain of salt.
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