IMF warns recession will be 'unusually long-lasting'

[BelgianMadCow]

Source: Guardian (UK)

More than half of the world's countries have been plunged into recession by the credit crunch, a higher proportion than at any time since 1960, according to the International Monetary Fund, which warns today that the downturn is likely to be "unusually severe and long-lasting", and will starve developing countries of resources.

As the world's finance ministers prepare to descend on Washington for the IMF's spring meetings next week, it offers a stark warning to politicians who claim to have spied green shoots.

"The combination of financial crisis and a globally synchronised downturn is likely to result in an unusually severe and long-lasting recession," the IMF says, in two key chapters of its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, published today.




Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/apr/16/imf-warns-severe-long-lasting-recession

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I posted this because the D-word was mentioned in the IMF report - Depression. It's not mentioned in the Guardian article, but it is in this dutch source
http://www.tijd.be/nieuws/economie-financien/IMF_ziet_gelijkenissen_met_Grote_Depressie.8170893-600.art and it's covered at length in the report.

The full report is available in pdf at
http://static.tijd.be/upload/IMF-rapport-1084457.pdf

Here's an excerpt (page 3/36 and following) about similarities between the current crisis and the Great Depression:

Nevertheless, there are worrisome parallels. There is continued pressure on asset prices, lending remains constrained by financial sector
deleveraging and widespread lack of confidence in financial intermediaries, financial shocks have affected real activity on a global scale , and
inflation is decelerating rapidly and is likely to approach values close to zero in a number of countries. Moreover, declining activity is beginning
to create feedback effects that affect the solvency of financial intermediaries, which risks of debt deflation have increased.

Also have a look at the stunning graphs figure 3.15 on page 29...

[CatholicEdHead]

1. Well, DUH

[xchrom]

2. recommend

[Vidar]

3. Firm grasp of the obvious.

[aquart]

4. Ten truly nasty years.

Way more bad paper in those banks still.

[OhioChick]

5. Tell me something that I don't already know.

K&R

[hunter]

6. I figure about 400 years in today's money.

In 400 years there will be about a billion people on earth, civilization will have a much better understanding of economics and its relationship to the environment, the dollar and other currencies will be long forgotten, the word "lending" will only be used for things like garden tools and bicycles, the word "credit" will be archaic, and high school kids everywhere will dismiss our times as a period of genocide, superstition, war, and insanity, notable only for the invention of the internet.

If not, then there will be only a few million of us left and we'll probably spend a lot of time beating one another to death with clubs and rocks for the usual human reasons.


I think it's mad to be waiting for the economy to get back to where it used to be. We have to build a new economy for the future. The economy we had was unsustainable and we are never going back that way again.

[Mojorabbit]

7. I just skimmed

the pdf. It doesn't look very encouraging.

[Blandocyte]

8. The Dutch can mention depression

because what do they care? They can smoke up! As the Freak Bros said, "Dope will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no dope."

My 100th post biotches! Somebody welcome me to DU!

[cpompilo]

9. I'm new to DU, but Welcome Blandocyte!

Congrats on your 100th post - I like it!

[izquierdista]

10. And if it isn't....

They have a shelf full of austerity measures to make sure it will be.

[Javaman]

11. Can we just call it what it is already!!!

The John Holms recession!!!

LOLOLOLOL