STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday April 20

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday April 20, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 2

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 17, 2009

Dow... 8,131.33 +5.90 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq... 1,673.07 +2.63 (+0.16%)
S&P 500... 869.60 +4.30 (+0.50%)
Gold future... 867.90 -11.90 (-1.37%)
30-Year Bond 3.79% +0.07 (+1.97%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.93% +0.10 (+3.53%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation by Tim W. Wood

yadda yadda
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[truthisfreedom]

2. Someone should remind Obama about ever-rising ATM fees.

I just saw $3.50 per transaction in Minneapolis.

Out of fucking control. What's next? $10 fee on a $20 withdrawl?

[ozymandius]

4. We at the Chez Ozymandius withdraw money the old fashioned way.

We cash a check at the bank. Sometimes we use the new fangled way: we get cash back when we purchase something using our debit card at the grocery store.

I've seen ATM fees as high as you've mentioned. I don't know if there's a Publix supermarket near you, but they only charge $1 (used to be free) to use one of their store-branded ATMs.

[DemReadingDU]

19. I use a debit card to buy groceries and get cash back. no fees

Actually, several stores allow this method. I've never had any fee assessed. I think the max is $50 cash.

[rfranklin]

23. Better yet, join the underground economy...cash only

Screw the banks.

[DemReadingDU]

25. I do use cash for items less than $10

But using a debit card, you get a list of purchases with your bank statement, so you know where your money goes. Using cash, the money gets frittered away. Husband always uses cash for discretionary spending. At the end of the month, he has no idea what he bought nor how much things cost.

[rfranklin]

26. Men are so scatter brained!

Speaking as a man...

[AnneD]

50. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers.

At our household-we use the budget envelope system just like my Mom does. Through a little bit of trial and error-I have figured out how much per payday I spend on gas,food,clothing,personal care and I give myself a little blow money. I go to the bank every payday -draw out that money in cash and divvy it up into the marked envelopes. The fixed bills are payed by check, but I take money out of my envelopes and pay cash for groceries, gas or fast food. When the envelope is empty-that's it until next payday. It really keeps my unnecessary spending down as well as trips to the ATM. No more guessing how much money I have or if I am over drawn. There is something about parting with cash that makes you think twice before spending. Once you get your spending set-it is pretty automatic so you don't have to spend much time dwelling over it. But the best thing-you know where every penny is going and you can save a fortune and pay off your debts quickly.
We have been off of credit cards for 6 years and have 2 debts remaining to pay off so it is working very well for us. I have budgeted for trips, car repairs, and all other assorted things. How nice to come home after a vacation with just pictures,souvenirs, memories, AND NO CREDIT CARD BILL. Now that IS a vacation. I have been prepared for the unplanned. I had plenty of cash on hand when the hurricane hit and we were out of power for weeks. I could get a hot meal at any place that was open or rent a room to get a hot shower or sleep in AC. Cash gave me more options. I swear by the envelope method.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Hugin]

52. Fact is... That's what the whole SMWEI is... an Envelope Budget.

The great unknown being the Debt Load.

It's quite simple really... I take the median US income and parcel it out into the Needs and Obligations 'envelopes'. The resulting output number or "Index" is a measure of the imbalance. It's an enumeration of what's left when we look in the envelopes at the end of the month.

There is no room for 'wants' in there right now.

On top of that, currently the Supply-siders seem to feel they are entitled to siphon off quite a large percentage of the contents of the envelopes to maintain the standard of living to which they've become accustomed and morally or divinely owed.

Have I said lately, your Mom is a very smart woman? :)

[AnneD]

54. Thanks.....

I'll tell Mom. As far as I know-I think GM did the envelope system too. We stick with what works and is easy around here.

As Mom once told a fast talking broker once (that made a negative comment on the amount of return she got on her secure investment)

"Well if I'm doing so poorly-why are YOU asking for MY money". :rofl: gotta love it.

[TeeYiYi]

66. My bank pulled out of the local supermarket chain...

... so I now use one single method to obtain cash ... I use the 'Chez Ozymandius grocery store debit card cash back on purchase' way. Tried and true. Always free.

PS--->> I want to take this opportunity to thank you for your daily stock market thread. As a self-professed financial rube, I routinely check your thread for clues to my economic surroundings. It's what keeps me coming back to DU in the political off season.

TYY :hi:

[tclambert]

28. My credit union has zero fees. They advertise that fact.

Why do people use banks? Credit Unions do everything the banks do better and cheaper. That's the non-profit part.

[DemReadingDU]

31. We have a credit union too

and 2 banks that used to be local, but now are big regionals.

Our mortgage was at a S&L that turned itself into a local bank that got bought out by 1 regional bank (savings account). I used to work at a different local bank that got merged into the other regional bank (checking account). And spouse worked for someone who setup auto-deposit at the credit union (now used for an IRA-savings). We kept everything separate, have never had any fees. And who knows...in a couple years, everything may be consolidated for us.


edit for clarity

[Wednesdays]

32. Which is the reason we were thiiiiiis close to losing the credit unions

I think it was ca. 2003 when there was a huge push to shut down the credit unions...by you-know-who. Thank God that never came about.

[Hugin]

78. Thanks for reminding me.

I had forgotten that little detail... Among so many.

:grr: <-- Not directed at Wednesdays.

[Amonester]

47. Link here:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/CONTACT/

Write and Hope someone next room reads it (which doesn't "seem" like someone does on other issues like, for example, True Justice for all torturers...)

[Gen. Jack D. Ripper]

71. Join a Credit Union

In my area, most Credit Unions are on the Nationwide, CO-OP ATM network. I can go to an ATM operated by any of the Credit Unions on the network and withdraw money with no service charge. I don't know why people still use commercial banks. I haven't had an account at a commercial bank in over 10 years, and I never will again.

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Report

10:00 Leading Indicators Mar
Briefing.com NA
Consensus -0.2%
Prior -0.4%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

11. U.S. Leading Economic Indicators May Signal Recession Will Ease

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading indicators for March may show the longest recession in the post- World War II era will start loosening its grip in coming months, economists said before a report today.

The gauge of the outlook over the next three to six months dropped 0.2 percent following a 0.4 percent February decrease, according to the median estimate of 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

....

The New York-based Conference Board’s index is due at 10 a.m. Washington time. Estimates in the survey ranged from a drop of 0.7 percent to a 0.1 percent gain.

Seven of the 10 components of the leading index are known ahead of time: jobless claims, stock prices, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, supplier delivery times and factory hours.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ajy.TlExvWiM&refer=economy

[Hugin]

30. This looks like the spot for the inaugural posting of the SMW Economic Index.

The value of this week's SMWEI is....

(Drum roll please.)

---------------> (-5.6)(minus five-point-six) <-------------

A couple of comments... The Index seems to be currently trending neutral. It may be due to the stimulus or possibly we've entered the lower bar of this 'L' shaped recovery which has been discussed along the way... or maybe everyone has been laid off.

Some groups of North-American Natives believe that in order to fight something, it must first be defined and named. The SMWEI is an attempt at accomplishing this.

Thank you... And a special thank you to all of the Critical Thinkers on the Economy for providing me with your individual economic assessments.

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Some additional new thinking...

From an item posted by DemReadingDU in WEE:

BNN interviews Meredith Whitney, founder, Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC; and Ian Gordon, author, "The Long Wave Group".

http://watch.bnn.ca/the-close/april-2009/the-close-april-7-2009/#clip158804

"She is very technical but gives a very cogent analysis of the unwinding of the economy vis-a-vis the credit collapse. The other main point I took away was the Canadian (Pratt?) who was arguing that unemployment should now be considered a leading, not lagging, indicator of the economy because more foreclosures and loan defaults are the inevitable result of losing your job (which feeds right back into the banks tightening credit and shoring up cash reserves)." (Thanks to DUer Hawkowl for the interpretation.)

[DemReadingDU]

35. additional videos and audios posted during the weekend

please check out Demeter's weekend thread
many excellent videos and audios...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x441368

[ozymandius]

14. Four Markers of an Economic Turnaround

Via Barron’s, we learn that Merrill’s David Rosenberg has four markers that he is tracking to identify when the economy is finally making a turn and starting an extended expansion:

• Home prices.
• Personal-savings rate.
• Debt-service ratio
• Ratio of the coincident-to-lagging indicators (Conference Board).

By aggregating those four markers, Rosie calculates we are roughly 44% of the way through the “adjustment” process. While that is a tick up from last month, the improvement, he laments, has been “very modest and very slow.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/four-markers-of-an-economic-turnaround/

[Ghost Dog]

21. Guess he wants personal savings rate negative,

being a banker (article doesn't say).

[Hugin]

34. That is very close to what is included in the...

SMWEI.

Except that the SMWEI includes Median Income, Unemployment and an attempted view of Underemployment.

I don't see any uptick at all. However, because it's new, the SMWEI is more reactive than predictive.

[Ghost Dog]

51. Leading economic indicators in the United States dip more than expected

The Conference Board says its monthly forecast of American economic activity fell 0.3 per cent in March and has not risen in nine months. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a 0.2 per cent decline.

The index is designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months based on 10 components, such as stock prices, the money supply, jobless claims, new orders by manufacturers and building permits.

The index for February was better than previously reported, falling 0.2 per cent instead of 0.4 per cent.

But it was revised lower in January to a 0.2 per cent decline, instead of a 0.1 per cent increase.

/.. http://money.canoe.ca/News/Economy/2009/04/20/9175076-ap.html

[ozymandius]

5. Oil falls below $50 as investors eye US earnings

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $50 a barrel Monday in Asia as investors braced for a slew of U.S. corporate earnings reports this week that could temper optimism about global economic recovery.

Benchmark crude for May delivery fell 79 cents to $49.54 a barrel by midafternoon in Singapore in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Friday rose 35 cents to settle at $50.33.

Oil prices have played peek-a-boo with $50 a barrel this month after dropping below $35 in February as investors struggle to decipher how the economy will perform in the second half.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for May delivery fell 2.51 cents to $1.47 a gallon and heating oil fell 1.25 cents to $1.41 a gallon. Natural gas for May delivery was steady at $3.73 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[BelgianMadCow]

6. Economy 'no longer in free fall' - BBC

The economy is no longer in free fall and a recovery next spring is likely, a renowned economic think tank has said.

Stabilising markets and the easing of credit conditions may well mean that the worst of the recession is over, the Ernst & Young Item Club said.

It is forecasting the economy to shrink by 3.5% this year and by 0.1% in 2010.

However, it also said that the backdrop to Wednesday's Budget is "bleak" and warned that the chancellor has "limited options" in his spending plans.

more at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8005439.stm

now this is kind of funny - the text pretty much belies the headline. How you paint 900 k UK jobs more to lose and a 3.5 % contraction as positive...whew.

[ozymandius]

9. And this is the good news? Ouch!

Someone is desperate for happy thoughts.

[BelgianMadCow]

16. probably Ernst & Young eager for happy thoughts

I imagine consultants, like temp agencies, feel the downturn first.

[Ghost Dog]

24. It's ok because they have the thought-control and protest-control

and comprehensive surveillance systems in place (and they can always just blame the 'pakis').

( :sarcasm: tag I hope not necessary)

[ozymandius]

7. Earnings deluge may stall Wall Street rally

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A torrent of earnings this week threatens to swamp Wall Street's impressive rally, as results so far have shown the corporate outlook remains murky and investors worry that better-than-expected results from banks still don't prove the sector is stable.

Investors will get a look at the performance of a swath of major companies, including everything from Wells Fargo(WFC.N) to Caterpillar(CAT.N), providing a broad look at the economy's health.

....

Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to decline 37.4 percent in the quarter, according to Thomson Reuters data, with all 10 sectors taking a hit.

Economic indicators will be relatively light in the coming week, keeping earnings on center stage. But investors will be looking at data on new and existing home sales, as well as durable goods orders to see if the reports can extend the optimism sparked last month by signals that the economic slump may be waning.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090419/bs_nm/us_column_stocks_outlook_3

[ozymandius]

8. Exxon Mobil overtakes Wal-Mart to top Fortune 500

NEW YORK – Exxon Mobil Corp. unseated Wal-Mart Stores Inc. in the 2009 Fortune 500 list, shrugging off the oil price bubble and weathering what the magazine called the worst year ever for the country's largest publicly traded companies.

Fortune's closely watched list, released Sunday, ranked companies by their revenue in 2008. Irving, Texas-based Exxon took in $442.85 billion in revenue last year, up almost 19 percent from 2007. The company also raked in the biggest annual profit, earning $45.2 billion.

Bentonville, Ark.-based Wal-Mart had held the top spot for six of the last seven years but fell to No. 2 this year. Still, the retail giant's 2008 revenue climbed 7 percent to $405.6 billion, as the battered economy sent more consumers searching for bargains. The world's largest retailer took in $13.4 billion in annual profit, an increase of about 5 percent.

Although it may have been a good year for Exxon and Wal-Mart, 2008 was far from rosy for most of remaining companies on the list. Overall earnings plunged 85 percent to $98.9 billion from $645 billion in 2007, the biggest one-year decline in the 55-year history of the Fortune 500 list.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090420/ap_on_bi_ge/fortune500

[tclambert]

29. Name anyone or anything that has harmed America, and the world, more than Exxon Mobil.

Bush and Cheney excepted. And Exxon Mobil largely made the Bush administration possible, and dictated many of its policies.

Global warming? Bah. Fuel economy? Nah. Alternative energy sources? Higher gas taxes to encourage (shudder) conservation? Fuggedaboutit. Start wars to secure oil supply while at the same time creating fears for the oil supply that will lead to higher oil prices? Get on that!

[boomerbust]

43. Exactly

This guy seems to be eating pert near every day.

[ozymandius]

10. U.S. bank lending drops in February despite bailouts: report

(Reuters) - Banks that received the most U.S. government aid made or refinanced 23 percent less in new loans in February, than in October 2008, when the U.S. Treasury launched its Troubled Asset Relief Program, the Wall Street Journal said, citing its own analysis of Treasury Department data.

In three of the four months that the U.S. government reported this data, the total dollar amount of new loans declined, according to the paper.

Some 16 of the 19 largest TARP recipients with comparable data originated fewer loans in February than they did at the time they received federal infusions, the paper said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE53J0U020090420

[Festivito]

12. Debt: 04/15/2009 11,218,863,034,278.70 (UP 46,564,296,247.29) (Up big.)

(Big rise, and FICA goes up also.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,937,569,851,513.76 + 4,281,293,182,764.94
UP 44,205,591,028.33 + UP 2,358,705,218.96

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.8, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,171,515 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $36,642.41.
A family of three owes $109,927.24. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 9,796,368,830.48.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,837,095,064.38.
The average for the last 33 days would be 7,124,631,876.71.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 60 reports in 85 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.82B$ per report, 0.68B$/day so far.
There were 135 reports in 197 days of FY2009 averaging 8.85B$ per report, 6.06B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,376 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 21.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/15/2009 11,218,863,034,278.70 BHO (UP 591,985,985,365.62 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,194,138,137,366.30 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/26/2009 +007,175,786,187.90 ------------*********
03/27/2009 -000,468,145,936.78 ---
03/30/2009 +000,069,902,880.68 ------------******* Mon
03/31/2009 +079,841,314,678.25 ------------**********
04/01/2009 -001,742,860,350.87 --
04/02/2009 +007,764,243,786.78 ------------*********
04/03/2009 +028,967,677,130.84 ------------**********
04/06/2009 +000,073,808,356.95 ------------******* Mon
04/07/2009 +000,123,552,400.07 ------------********
04/08/2009 +000,050,639,456.95 ------------*******
04/09/2009 +024,055,285,655.59 ------------**********
04/10/2009 +000,051,156,797.54 ------------*******
04/13/2009 +000,309,440,014.97 ------------******** Mon
04/14/2009 +000,167,862,523.71 ------------********
04/15/2009 +044,205,591,028.33 ------------**********

190,645,254,610.91 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,554,231,231,019.63 in last 209 days.
That's 1,554B$ in 209 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 153% of that highest year ever only in 209 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 209 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3834046&mesg_id=3834185

[ozymandius]

13. How to Black Swan-proof the World

Nassim Taleb suggests ways to make economic life closer to our biological environment: smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage. The risk takers of the economy should be entrepreneurs, not bankers; Companies shouls be born and die every day, without making the news.

In other words, a place more resistant to black swans.

Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world

1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail.

2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism.

3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system.

....

7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Be robust in the face of them.

8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is denial.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/how-to-black-swan-proof-the-world/

[Joe Chi Minh]

22. Point 9. cited at the ritholz (Big Picture) link seems particularly important for retirees,

i.e. personal, long-term survival.

[KoKo]

45. On #9....

9. Economic life should be definancialised. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement.

-----

Just think what it could do to have CD's and Savings Accounts that paid a decent rate of return that one had control over rather than going into a 401-K that needs to be managed. Let those who want to speculate in stocks & bonds be free to do it. Savings Accounts used to be the way most of us ordinary folks put away money. And, for awhile CD's had very nice returns along with Municipal Bonds. Lots of my older relatives retired with money they squirreled away back in the 60's, 70's and early 80's. Of course they did have SS and Pensions which filled in the rest.

[Dr.Phool]

57. My dad, who was born in 1929, complained for years about low interest rates on CD's.

He never did trust stocks, and a 401k plan wasn't an option at our employer until after he retired.

He kept all of his money in CD's and stocks. Funny thing is, he's the only one with any money left.

[Joe Chi Minh]

95. I'm a financial ignoramus, but I know enough about businessmen,

politicians and governments, to be dumbfounded that people fell for the invitation by our British government to switch from their government pensions to private, "managed" ones.

It seemed insane. And sure enough, it ended in a scandal, and tears for many people who were gullible enough take up our government's kind offer. I can see your point about managing your own pension fund, rather than the alternative, however, in the US.

[BelgianMadCow]

15. Nokia sees profits plunge by 90%

Nokia, the world's largest mobile phone maker, has reported a 90% fall in profits for the first quarter of 2009.

The company said net profits sank to 122m euros ($160m; £108m) in the quarter, down from 1.2bn euros in the same period a year ago.

The main reason for the slump was a dramatic fall in sales, which were down by almost a third.

Nokia is implementing a cost-cutting drive during the economic downturn and announced 1,700 job cuts last month.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8001972.stm

[Tansy_Gold]

20. Did it ever occur to them -- it occurred to ME -- that there comes

a point at which the market is saturated and you just aren't going to sell as many of your new-fangled gadgets as you once did?

Or is that too simple an explanation?




Tansy Gold, occasionally simple

[Dr.Phool]

27. Or, people figure out, that they really don't need the gadget?

My latest 2 year service agreement is up next week. I'm getting rid of it. I don't need it anymore.

When I used to work on the railroad, it was a necessity. A missed call could cost me a couple of hundred bucks. Now, it's an $80 per month burden.

[tclambert]

36. Yeah, the appliance market goes like that.

I can remember when color TVs were the new thang. They sold like creamsicles on a hot day until everybody had one. Then the market slowed until big screens were invented. Microwave ovens came along and gave the appliance stores a boost. When everybody had one, the replacement rate wasn't enough to keep appliance stores thriving. VCRs, DVD players, PCs, cell phones all followed the same pattern. If somebody invented a time machine, those would sell like crazy until they saturated the market, then sales would slow tremendously. Or some idiot would travel back in time and step on a butterfly. (How many times do we gotta tell you? Do not step on prehistoric butterflies!)

You know, what with the butterflies in China that cause tornadoes in Kansas, maybe we'd be better off without butterflies. They seem insignificant but they are nothing but trouble.

[Karenina]

59. Sometimes the simplest explanation is the best.

:toast:

[Demeter]

60. My First CellPhone, a Motorola Brick, Lasted 10 years

So it wasn't sexy, it didn't do anything except ring, but when I had to replace it because I couldn't get a new battery and the old one had expired due to cycle limitations, the new phone isn't likely to last half as long, and I've replaced that battery twice already. And it isn't sexy either. But when I need a tow, I can get one.

[BelgianMadCow]

76. I've been curbing my gadgetry desires for quite a while now and it feels great

spending 20 euro / 2 months on my mobile instead of 100+ per month.
Unless my 1 year old succeeds in driveling the phone to extinction, no way I'm replacing it.

Many will be making the excercise to differentiate need from want - a good idea in any case, and especially now.

[Ghost Dog]

17. Asia stocks edge up

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian stocks edged up on Monday, holding near a six-month peak and withstanding an early bout of profit-taking as investors eyed a slew of corporate earnings reports around the world this week.

...

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (^MIAPJ0000PUS - News) was up 0.7 percent, getting a boost from gains in Hong Kong (HKSE:^HSI - News) and Taiwan (Taiwan:^TWII - News).

The MSCI benchmark last week hit its strongest levels since mid October and has surged 36 percent from its lows struck in March, outpacing recent gains in most other global stock markets. But it is still down a whopping 47 percent since the end of 2007 when the financial crisis flared up.

BOC Hong Kong (HKSE:2388.HK - News), the Bank of China's local subsidiary, jumped more than 5 percent after China said over the weekend it would allow Hong Kong banks on the mainland to issue yuan-denominated bonds, a move seen helping spur loan growth.

Chinese shares in Shanghai (^SSEC - News) rose 2.1 percent to eight-month highs as investors grew more confident about China's economic outlook, while South Korea added 0.6 percent. Australia's main index (ASX:^AXJO - News) slipped 0.2 percent.

...

Japan's Nikkei average (Osaka:^N225 - News) drifted up 0.2 percent, with shares of steelmakers (-ISTELT - News) extending gains after they agreed to a smaller than expected price cut with Toyota (Tokyo:7203.T - News).

The news offset Toshiba's (Tokyo:6502.T - News) 4.8 percent slide on reports the electronics maker will raise $5 billion in capital -- its first share issue in 28 years -- to bolster its financial position.

JGBS RETREAT, BUT NZ SWAP RATES SLIP

Government bonds in Japan retreated following a decline in U.S. Treasuries on Friday and as the rally in stocks was showing signs of holding up, even as some investors wondered if equities were due for a near-term reversal after the six-week run higher.

Japan's Ministry of Finance was set to meet with big investors after talks with primary bond dealers on Friday as it eyes how to smooth out the expected surge in bond issuance to pay for the country's latest stimulus package totaling $156 billion.

June JGB futures dipped 0.18 point to 136.63, near a six-month low. Benchmark 10-year JGB yields edged up 2.5 basis points to 1.470 percent.

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Asia-stocks-edge-up-but-rb-14967742.html?.v=2

[Ghost Dog]

18. Nikkei edges up 0.2 pct, steelmakers advance

TOKYO, April 20 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average recovered from an early fall to gain 0.2 percent on Monday, weighed down by a stronger yen but shored up by gains in steelmakers' shares.

Japan's steelmakers, already boosted after they agreed to a smaller-than-expected cut in steel prices with Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) last week, received a further lift after Nomura Securities raised its stance on the sector to "bullish" from "neutral". .

"Some sectors, like iron and steel, are on an updraft due to sector-specific factors. Others like the banking sector, which led the recent rebound, are being exposed to profit-taking," said Yoshihisa Okamoto, a senior vice president at Mizuho Investment Management.

The Nikkei's gains were modest, as selling pressure has turned up a notch whenever it nears or goes above 9,000.

"Market players see 9,000 as a level to lock in profits, at least until most of the earnings releases and the uncertainties involved with them are out of the way," said Okamoto at Mizuho Investment Management.

The Nikkei has risen above 9,000 three times this month after bouncing back from a 26-year closing low near 7,000 struck in March, but it has not closed above 9,000 since early January.

Japan's top lender Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.T) slid 3.3 percent to 496 yen.

Market participants said concerns about the U.S. financial sector were still weighing on investor confidence, even though upbeat earnings results from banks such as Citigroup (C.N) have pushed U.S. stocks higher in recent weeks.

"Investors can't cheer U.S. bank earnings without qualms because although profits from core operations appear to be improving, the issue of bad assets remains," said Takahiko Murai, general manager at Nozomi Securities.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAT35487420090420?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

33. Bank of America profit rises, credit quality sours

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Bank of America Corp on Monday disappointed investors by reporting a big increase in troubled loans, even as its purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co helped first-quarter profit more than double.

While results topped analysts' forecasts, they were bolstered by one-time events, including a $1.9 billion gain from selling shares of China Construction Bank Corp and $2.2 billion of gains tied to widening credit spreads.

Bank of America shares fell 77 cents, or 7.7 percent, to $9.83 in premarket trading.

The results are unlikely to stem calls for Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis to be ousted or to give up the post of chairman of the largest U.S. bank, which has taken $45 billion of federal bailout money.

Bank of America set aside $13.38 billion for credit losses in the quarter, up from the fourth quarter's $8.54 billion.

...

Net income applicable to common shareholders of Bank of America rose to $2.81 billion, or 44 cents per share, from $1.02 billion, or 23 cents, a year earlier. Net revenue more than doubled to $35.76 billion.

Before the impact of preferred stock dividends, net income more than tripled to $4.25 billion from $1.21 billion.

Lewis faces intense pressure over the Merrill purchase, which shareholders approved before learning of big losses at Merrill that would prompt a government bailout.

Bank of America has also infuriated regulators over its handling of big bonuses awarded to Merrill workers, and the bank's share price has fallen by more than two-thirds since the merger was announced in September.

...

Net charge-offs rose to $6.94 billion from $2.72 billion a year earlier. Nonperforming assets more than tripled to $25.74 billion, and rose $7.51 from year-end. Bank of America's credit card business lost $1.77 billion in the quarter.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090420/bs_nm/us_bankofamerica;_ylt=Ar3Cc513ECfK_wUoHnTUbTi573QA

[UpInArms]

37. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.466 Change +0.570 (+0.73%)

US Dollar Forecast Turns Bullish Despite S&P 500 Winning Streak

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Forecast_Turns_Bullish_1240006353785.html

The US Dollar gained despite the sixth-consecutive week of S&P 500 rallies, breaking its correlation to safe-haven flows and confounding forex trading markets. Fairly steady improvement in global financial market conditions has arguably decreased the US Dollar’s sensitivity to major risk barometers. Yet a single week’s results hardly signals that risk tides have truly turned, and there is little reason to believe that recent developments reflect a permanent shift in the US Dollar’s trading dynamics. The 20-day correlation between the Euro/US Dollar and the S&P 500 now stands at its lowest levels since January—at which point market sentiment took a sharp turn for the worse and the US Dollar rallied sharply. The two situations are far from identical, but overall economic headwinds would suggest that global financial crises are far from over. A turnaround in the S&P 500 and other key risk barometers would likely force US Dollar appreciation against the Euro and other major counterparts.

The Euro/US Dollar’s recent break to the downside certainly improves US Dollar outlook, and a relatively empty week of economic event risk suggests that currencies will largely trade off of technicals and risk-related flows. Economic calendars are sparsely populated with largely second-tier data releases. Possible exceptions include US Existing and New Home Sales reports and subsequent Durable Goods Orders data. Overall trends clearly show that the domestic economy remains in recession, but traders remain on the lookout for so-called “second derivative” improvements. In mathematics the “second derivative” is the rate of change in change. In this case, overall growth levels are clearly negative. A second derivative improvement would imply that the rate of contraction slows—thereby making way for a reversal in negative growth rates. Economic bulls cite the recent pickup in US Home Sales as early signs of “second derivative” changes, but it is far from clear that early signs of recovery will be sustained.

We will pay close attention to US Home Sales results, but we maintain that currencies are more likely to move off of broader financial market developments. If the US Dollar regains its tight correlation to risky assets, it will be most important to watch movements in the S&P 500 and other key risk measures. Given six consecutive weeks of advances, we believe it is only a matter of time before we see a sharp correction in domestic equity markets.



...more...

Pound Sinks As Upcoming Budget Release, Inflation and Employment Data Weigh On Sentiment

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Pound_Sinks_As_Upcoming_Budget_1240221631489.html

The pound has traded heavy throughout overnight trading falling over 200 pips to 1.4550 as a week full of event risk has spurred risk aversion. U.K. CPI and employment figures are due over the next two days which are expected to support the BoE’ contention that inflation will undershoot their 2% target and the economy will continue to slow until the end of 2009. There have been some positive signs recently for the economy which continued today as Rightmove reported that house prices rose for a third straight month by 1.8%.

On Wednesday the government will unveil its budget which is expected to be focused on growth and should contain measures to help the unemployed. Yet, Chancellor Darling is expected to forecast that the economy will contract by 3.5% this year and that recent bailouts will become a tax burden going forward. The pound/dollar has fallen below the 20-Day SMA at 1.4663 and is now targeting the 100-Day SMA at 1.4531. The 50-DAY SMA at 1.4397 may provide significant support and lead to a reversal in sentiment. If we see a break below there then a test of the March 30th low of 1.4111 is a possibility.

The Euro has also come under pressure as traders continue to steer clear of the single currency, as the ECB remains divided over future easing and non-standard measures. The euro/dollar fell to as low as 1.2952 as it has clearly broken below the 50-Day SMA at 1.3037. German Zew and IFO surveys latter in the week will give some insight into prevailing sentiment and whether the central bank’s division is weighing on optimism. Many expect that ultimately we will see another 25 bps rate cut and some form of quantitative easing. We could see some support today at 1.2945 the 61.8% Fibo of the 1.2420-1.3735, but a break below there leaves the March 10th low of 1.280 as the next level of major support.

The dollar has been supported overnight as risk appetite has faded ahead of a week of significant event risk. The economic calendar is relatively empty with only the leading indicator gauge scheduled for release. The forward looking measurement is expected to decline by another 0.2% indicating that the economy will continue to weaken over the next three months. The remainder of the week will much more eventful with 40% of the Dow and 25% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings this week. If earnings reports continue to surprise to the upside we may see equity markets build on recent gains and lead to dollar weakness. Indeed, the OECD’s Gurria stated that there are positive signs emerging from China and the U.S. and if markets start to believe that a recovery is around the corner then we could see risk appetite sustained over the medium term. However, clear signs of a recovery will most likely not emerge until the end of 2009 which could lead to choppy price action in the short-term.

...more...

[tclambert]

38. So, Obama announced support for new high-speed rail corridors in the US.

Long overdue. Personally, I have trouble believing we let Europe and Japan pass us in rail technology. What happened to American pride?

Here's my question, though: Who's gonna make money on building them? Any decent investment opportunities there? (Just tell me it is not Halliburton.) Is GE gonna make the trains, electric motors and maglev gizmos?

[Demeter]

42. Band-Aids on a Cancer

[Hugin]

44. GE will most likely be the Prime and will sub out via...

Lockheed Martin---->SAIC----->GMAC---->AIG----->Goldman Sachs----->Citibank etc.

Until with $11.98 left to spend, "Bobby's Will-Build-Anything-For-$11.98" will begin the brickwork... Ultimately failing. While The Rush Limbaugh Party blames the failure on the NEA, UAW and especially those Liberal Democrats.

As you can tell, I've seen this movie many times.

[Demeter]

65. I Like Kunstler's Opinion

...the announcement last week of a plan to build a high speed rail network. To be blunt about it, this is perfectly fucking stupid. It will require a whole new track network, because high speed trains can't run on the old rights of way with their less forgiving curve ratios and grades. We would be so much better off simply fixing up and reactivating the normal-speed track system that is sitting out there rusting in the rain -- and save our more grandiose visions for a later time.

I don't like to be misunderstood. With the airlines in a business death spiral, and mass motoring doomed, we need a national passenger rail system desperately. But we already have one that used to be the envy of the world before we abandoned it. And we don't have either the time or the resources to build a new parallel network.

But grandiosity is just another way that we lie to ourselves about where we're at and what is really possible. Surely Mr. Obama knows that hope fades where the light of truth doesn't shine. He is a charming fellow. I don't especially want to see Newt Gingrich chop his head off.

http://www.worldnewstrust.com/wnt-reports/commentary/note-hope-=-truth-james-kunstler.html

KUNSTLER IS SPEAKING TO US--IT'S FRENCH REVOLUTION TIME, ACCORDING TO HIM. READ IT ALL FOR THE NUANCES

[fedsron2us]

79. His Ancien Regime comparisons chime with my own thinking

over the past few years. It has long been clear that the western world is ruled by a Bourbon political, financial and intellectual elite who have largely lost touch with all reality. All we lack are the royal ladies gambolling as mock shepherdesses around the Petite Trianon. Kunstlers comment about the 'circulation of elites' as the system disintegrates and the status quo dissolves is also a warning to those who are too quick to cheer the collapse of the old order. Bad as the current ruling class may be their replacement may be much worse.

[Demeter]

80. Then We Are Going To Have To See That We Pick The Replacements

[Demeter]

39. Home of the Barricaded, Land of the ‘Fraid

http://informationclearinghouse.info/article22442.htm


There are few statistics as stunning as the following simple, single number: The United States spends two times more on its military than all the other countries of the world, combined.

Yes, that's right. All 200 or so of them. Combined.

According to GlobalSecurity.org, last year, the US dropped about $625 billion in taxpayer dollars on its military, while all the rest of the world together spent $500 billion. (The aggregate global figures come from 2004, but have been steady over the prior decade.) However, if you also add in nuclear weapons costs handled separately by the Energy Department, Veterans Affairs, interest on money borrowed to fund previous wars, and the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the total rises to a jaw-dropping one trillion dollars per year.

Think of how astonishing that is.

Imagine if you lived down the street from a guy who insisted that his house had to be two times bigger than all the other houses in the neighborhood, combined. You and your neighbors live in 2,000 square foot houses, but he has to have an 800,000 square foot house. That's one that would be the length of three football fields long, and three football fields wide.

Imagine you and all your fishing buddies tied up next to a guy who had to have a boat that was twice as big as all of yours combined. You guys have 15 footers. His would be 6,000 feet long, or six Queen Marys, length-to-length.

Imagine that you knew someone who had to spend double on dinner what everyone else dining in a decent restaurant was spending. The average meal for the rest of you costs 25 dollars. This guy insists on spending $10,000 on one meal, of the same food, prepared by the same chef.

This is an astonishing ratio in so many ways.

Perhaps the most amazing thing about it is that nobody particularly talks about it. It's one thing to say that military spending has now joined Social Security as the third rail of American politics - you touch it, you die. And, of course, now we are treated to the visage of the "liberal" - even "socialist" and "defeatist" "pal of terrorists" - guy in the White House actually increasing military spending, and doing so at a time when the federal budget is hemorrhaging red ink as if it were the Exxon Valdez, drunken captain at the helm and all. But it's actually even worse than that...

[tclambert]

67. And yet, we still have trouble with pirates.

Is it possible we aren't spending our trillion on defense as efficiently or as wisely as we could?

[Tansy_Gold]

75. "As efficiently or as wisely as we could?" Ya think????? n/t

[Demeter]

40. Russia backs return to Gold Standard to solve financial crisis

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/g20-summit/5072484/Russia-backs-return-to-Gold-Standard-to-solve-financial-crisis.html


Arkady Dvorkevich, the Kremlin's chief economic adviser, said Russia would favour the inclusion of gold bullion in the basket-weighting of a new world currency based on Special Drawing Rights issued by the International Monetary Fund.

Chinese and Russian leaders both plan to open debate on an SDR-based reserve currency as an alternative to the US dollar at the G20 summit in London... although the world may not yet be ready for such a radical proposal.

Mr Dvorkevich said it was "logical" that the new currency should include the rouble and the yuan, adding that "we could also think about more effective use of gold in this system".

The Gold Standard was the anchor of world finance in the 19th Century but began breaking down during the First World War as governments engaged in unprecedented spending. It collapsed in the 1930s when the British Empire, the US, and France all abandoned their parities.

It was revived as part of fixed dollar system until US inflation caused by the Vietnam War and "Great Society" social spending forced President Richard Nixon to close the gold window in 1971.

The world's fiat paper currencies have lacked any external anchor ever since. It is widely argued that the financial excesses and extreme debt leverage of the last quarter century would have been impossible - or less likely - under the discipline of gold.

Russia is a major gold producer with large untapped reserves of ore so it has a clear interest in promoting the idea. The Kremlin has already instructed the central bank of gradually raise the gold share of foreign reserves to 10pc.

China's government has floated a variant of this idea, suggesting a currency based on 30 commodities along the lines of the "Bancor" proposed by John Maynard Keynes in 1944.

[Demeter]

41. Alarming News: Bank Losses Spreading!

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/alarming-news-bank-losses-spreading-32910


For the first time in history, U.S. banks have suffered large, ominous losses in a giant sector that, until now, they thought was solid: bets on interest rates...
According to the fourth quarter report just released this past Friday by the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), commercial banks lost a record $3.4 billion in interest rate derivatives, or more than seven times their worst previous quarterly loss in that category.

And here’s why the losses are so ominous:

Until the third quarter of last year, the banks’ losses in derivatives were almost entirely confined to credit default swaps — bets on failing companies and sinking investments.
Next major risk area: Interest Rate Derivatives

But credit default swaps are actually a much smaller sector, representing only 7.8 percent of the total derivatives market.

Now, with these new losses in interest rate derivatives, the disease has begun to infect a sector that encompasses a whopping 82 percent of the derivatives market.

Thus, considering their far larger volume, any threat to interest rate derivatives could be far more serious than anything we’ve seen so far.

Meanwhile, time bombs continue to explode in the credit default swaps as well, delivering another massive loss of nearly $9 billion in the fourth quarter.

And remember: These represent the aggregate total for the entire banking industry, after netting out the results of banks with profitable trading....

MORE WITH CHARTS AT LINK

[Hugin]

46. GM ‘Likely’ to Build in China as U.S. Factories Close (Update1) (Bloomberg)

By Stephanie Wong

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., shuttering U.S. plants in a bid to avoid bankruptcy, is “likely” to build a new factory in China on surging demand.

“Operations in China are profitable and in the future China can finance its own growth,” Nick Reilly, the company’s Asia-Pacific president, said at the Shanghai auto show today. He didn’t give a timeframe for the new plant.

GM, the biggest overseas automaker in China, boosted sales in the country 38 percent last month as government stimulus measures spurred demand for its minivans. By contrast, the company’s U.S. sales slumped 45 percent on the recession, as it battles to convince the U.S. government that it’s still viable.

The automaker has also delayed expansion of an Indian plant for as long as two years as sales growth there has slowed, Reilly said. The company will seek to turn around sales in Australia and South Korea, he added.

GM is basing its business planning in Asia on the assumption that it will have to finance projects locally, insulating it from possible problems in the U.S., Reilly said.

“We won’t get money out of the U.S. into China,” Reilly said. Still, “we don’t need to because we have a very good balance sheet.”

More... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aN4Brm9JM3_8&refer=asia

________________________________________________________________________________________

I 'hope' none of the 'rescue' money is paying for this...

[DemReadingDU]

48. Why not build in USA and close factories in China

:crazy:

[Dr.Phool]

49. The next time someone tells me to buy an American car.

I'm going to tell them to "Fuck Off"!

I've been a union member my entire life, and the last time I owned a foreign car, was a 1967 VW bug, that I bought used in 1972. Until I bought a Prius last year.

If they actually made cars here any more, I'd buy one. I'm sick and tired of auto makers sending all of their production overseas.

[antigop]

55. You, protectionist, you. (sarcasm) n/t

[Name removed]

53. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DemReadingDU]

58. Denninger's response

4/20/09 Treasury: Caught Lying Again



Last night Hal Turner (who has a reputation that is best described as heavily-adorned with Reynolds Wrap) published this:

The Turner Radio Network has obtained "stress test" results for the top 19 Banks in the USA.

....

1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.

2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.

3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.

4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.

He then goes on to list things that we know to be factual, including derivatives exposure (mostly in interest-rate swaps and similar.)

This appears to have led to Treasury issuing the following statement this morning:

The U.S. Treasury Department has not yet received the results of "stress tests'' on the health of the nation's 19 top banks, spokesman Andrew Williams said Monday, after a blog said it had obtained the test results and some U.S. bank shares moved lower.

That's a lie.

How do we know its a lie?

Because of this from April 10th:

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve has told Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other banks to keep mum on the results of “stress tests” that will gauge their ability to weather the recession, people familiar with the matter said.

The Fed wants to ensure that the report cards don’t leak during earnings conference calls scheduled for this month. Such a scenario might push stock prices lower for banks perceived as weak and interfere with the government’s plan to release the results in an orderly fashion later this month.

How can you be ordered not to release something you don't have?

Since that was published on the 10th of April, we therefore know that the results exist and Treasury, the banks involved and The Fed have them, as The Fed was concerned that some banks might try to use them (perhaps in a misleading fashion) during their first quarter conference calls and earnings releases.

Sorry guys, but whether Hal Turner has the real results or not is no longer material. What's material is the claim that Treasury doesn't have them, since they told the banks on the 10th not to release them, and you can't release what you don't have.

The problem with lying is that eventually you forget your previous lies and thus get caught when you contradict yourself.

My response to Treasury's claim is best expressed thus:

STOP LYING TIMMY; THE MARKET IS REACTING VERY, VERY BADLY TO THIS OBVIOUS AND TRANSPARENT LOAD OF CRAP YOU ARE TRYING TO FOIST OFF ON IT THIS MORNING.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/972-Treasury-Caught-Lying-Again.html


edit: Be sure to look at the graphic that Denninger has now included in his posting.

[Demeter]

61. He's in a Bit of a Temper, Isn't He?

Not that any of this is a surprise. The surprise is that they felt the need to officially check.

It wasn't sufficient that everybody knew it. There had to be a paper report with the official signatures....

Maybe this is Obama's plan to ease the bastards out? Get it in writing and then beat them to death with it? If so, why is Geithner still employed?

[DemReadingDU]

63. Since when does the Treasury ever respond to anyone's blog?

Last week the Fed Ordered the Banks to Stay Mum on ‘Stress Test’ Results.

Today Treasury says they do not have Stress Test Results Yet.

So the stress tests have been done, or not?

Or, the Fed has the results but did not give them to the Treasury?

And a right-wing blog says it has the results of the stress tests?

Is this a bizarro world?

[Demeter]

64. It's Been Bizarro Since 2000, with Warm-up Laps for Impeaching Clinton

Come to think of it, Reagan was pretty bizarro, too.

Different day, same shit. Going on 30 years, now.

Sometimes I wonder if the peanut butter scandal was to forestall another Georgian peanut farmer getting into politics. Carter set "1984" back by 6 years!

[DemReadingDU]

81. more bizarro

deleted post to an update, the above poster's name was removed for posting the original link.

:eyes:

[Demeter]

90. There Are Some Stupid Protocols On DU

For example, if certain websites are quoted, they are deleted on the general principle that one objectionable article taints everything forever after.

Which is pretty sick, IMO.

[DemReadingDU]

93. sometimes a thread is locked, thankfully that didn't happen to SMW

but the poster was removed and the commentary.

[Hugin]

86. ^LOOK ^ Ha! Not only is are they reacting they had it deleted from the SMW.

:eyes:

[DemReadingDU]

87. yeh, very bizarro

:crazy:


more here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x63516

[antigop]

56. Krugman: Erin Go Broke

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/20/opinion/20krugman.html?_r=1

“What,” asked my interlocutor, “is the worst-case outlook for the world economy?” It wasn’t until the next day that I came up with the right answer: America could turn Irish.

What’s so bad about that? Well, the Irish government now predicts that this year G.D.P. will fall more than 10 percent from its peak, crossing the line that is sometimes used to distinguish between a recession and a depression.

But there’s more to it than that: to satisfy nervous lenders, Ireland is being forced to raise taxes and slash government spending in the face of an economic slump — policies that will further deepen the slump.

And it’s that closing off of policy options that I’m afraid might happen to the rest of us. The slogan “Erin go bragh,” usually translated as “Ireland forever,” is traditionally used as a declaration of Irish identity. But it could also, I fear, be read as a prediction for the world economy.
...
Not to put too fine a point on it, that’s one reason I’m so concerned about the Obama administration’s bank plan. If, as some of us fear, taxpayer funds end up providing windfalls to financial operators instead of fixing what needs to be fixed, we might not have the money to go back and do it right.

And the lesson of Ireland is that you really, really don’t want to put yourself in a position where you have to punish your economy in order to save your banks.

Related blog entry:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/20/irish-cronies/

I’ve been getting some reactions from the Emerald Isle, and a lot of them come down to this: OK as far as it goes, but I didn’t sufficiently emphasize the crony capitalism aspect. True: I was aware of all that, but it didn’t make it into my story, and perhaps it should have.

Of course, today’s column was essentially “America in an Irish mirror.” How does the cronyism affect that? In Ireland you had key government officials with close personal — and, in some cases, financial — ties to the people inflating the bubble. And there are complaints that despite the crisis that hasn’t changed.

So, do we have anything like that here? What do you think?

Do we have anything like that here? Well, golly gee, Paul, let me think....

[Demeter]

62. So, the IMF Solution Awaits

Fuck the people, pay the bankers.

[Dr.Phool]

68. Aaaagh...Run! It's one of the verboten "K" words. The other being Klein.

I'm ready to go Irish. I'm gonna get drunk.

[Demeter]

82. What Do You Mean, Doc? Kunstler? Krugman?

Is there a ban on K Names? In which case, I will have to legally change to Demeter!

[Dr.Phool]

85. Sorry, I tripped into GD over the week-end.

Mention any name starting with a "K", Krugman, Kunstler, Klein, King Kong, and you're in deep shit! I think I'm still suffering from PTSD-GD.

The stoopid is painful. Seven years on this board, and I've never used the ignore. Until last night.

[Tansy_Gold]

88. My two best friends on DU ---

"Ignore"

and

"Alert"


I only have a few people on Ignore, but I think my blood pressure dropped several points after I did that.


I "Alert" a lot. :evilgrin:

[Dr.Phool]

91. Thanks for alerting me to that.

:evilgrin:

[tclambert]

69. U.S. recession seen likely to go through summer

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A key gauge of future economic activity fell for the third month in a row in March, showing the recession may persist through the summer, a nonprofit research group said on Monday.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index declined 0.3 percent last month, steeper than the 0.2 percent analysts polled by Reuters were expecting. It also fell 0.2 percent in February, which was originally reported as a 0.4 percent drop.

"The recession may continue through the summer, but the intensity will ease," said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, in a statement.

The index has not risen in the last nine months. In September and December it was unchanged and it experienced the largest drop during that period in October, when it fell 1 percent.

[tclambert]

70. Of Course Banks Aren't Lending

...And There's Nothing Wrong With That

Posted Apr 20, 2009 12:56pm EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking

The government's goal since the beginning of this crisis has been to get banks lending again. According to the Wall Street Journal, however, lending by the country's biggest banks has fallen significantly since last fall, when the bailout efforts began in earnest. So have the policies failed?

Not entirely, says Josh Rosner, managing director at research-boutique Graham Fisher. And the decline in bank lending is not just the result of strapped banks hoarding taxpayer cash.

Banks are lending less, Rosner says, because there is less demand for loans from consumers and businesses. Creditworthy borrowers, the folks the banks would like to lend to, are postponing purchases (and borrowing) in the hope that the economy will improve or prices will drop. Would-be borrowers who need cash, meanwhile, are no longer considered credit-worthy, now that the banks have tightened credit standards.

It's easy to blame the banks for this, but it's important to remember what led to this crisis in the first place: Reckless banks making loans to borrowers who couldn't pay them back. So unless the goal is just to pile up bad debts again, it makes sense for the banks to get tougher.

[BelgianMadCow]

72. Sooo if the money isn't going to lending why do we keep hearing "stimulate the lending"

as rationale for the bailouts? Something easy the masses can and will digest cause it makes sense at face value (only)?

Not a question directed at you alone, I guess we are probably on the same page.

[JackRiddler]

83. Any rationale will do - You the People must give all cash to the big banks, period.

Resuming lending? So that the interest burden on the economy can rise again?

The big banks who run the show and pay for the politicians are insolvent due to their own absurd bets, and grabbing every scrap of cash they can conjure (by plunder or printing) out of the Treasury and Fed. The rationale doesn't matter, long as all of the cash in the world goes to them.

[Dr.Phool]

73. Detroit councilman walks away from mortgage

Detroit councilman walks away from mortgage
Candidate for mayor saw value of home tumble as payment set to rise

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30311735/


pdated 1 hour, 3 minutes ago

DETROIT - It was their dream home, a two-story, four-bedroom colonial in one of Detroit's nicest and most stable neighborhoods.

But then, one day in December, City Councilman Kwame Kenyatta and his wife packed up their belongings, locked the doors, mailed in the keys and walked away — adding another vacant house to the thousands in a city hard hit by the nation's mortgage crisis.

"We're already underwater when it comes to what we're paying on the house versus what the house is worth," Kenyatta said.

Around the country, the practice, sometimes referred to as "mortgage walking" or "jingle mail," appears to be growing. But for Kenyatta, the decision could do more than hurt his credit rating.

It could damage his bid for mayor of Detroit this summer, particularly since he has been one of the city's most vocal supporters of measures to improve neighborhoods and clean up blight.

"If I'm going to follow you, you need to be a leader," said Patricia Dixon, a former neighbor of Kenyatta's. "You don't show leadership by walking away from your home in the city of Detroit. You have vandalism where they find out the houses are vacant. You have people stealing fireplaces."

(more)

[BelgianMadCow]

74. Debt overshadows US bank's profit - BBC on Bank of America -20%

this is a really interesting article - lots of blabla about the good news (which cough may well be due to accounting changes / govt money) and only one sentence without ANY explanation as to the why BoA has set aside much more than Q4 08.

Concerns about debt levels at Bank of America have overshadowed its better than expected profits for the first three months of 2009.

The US's largest bank set aside $13.4bn (£9.2bn) to cover credit losses, from the fourth quarter's $8.5bn.

Its shares sank 20% by mid-afternoon, and dragged other banking stocks lower.

This was despite net income soaring to $4.2bn in the first three months of 2009 from $1.2bn a year earlier, beating analysts expectations.

more at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8008158.stm

[BelgianMadCow]

77. Bank of America's surge in bad loans revives economic gloom - Guardian

More in depth - bold is mine

The embattled US financial services group Bank of America, which is facing a revolt by disgruntled shareholders, delivered a gloomy assessment of economic conditions as a surge in bad loans forced it to set aside $13.4bn (£9.22bn) to cover credit losses.

Bank of America reported a first-quarter profit of $4.2bn, compared with $1.2bn for the same period a year ago. But analysts said that after stripping out a series of large one-off gains, the bank's underlying performance was closer to break-even.

The North Carolina-based firm has faced severe criticism over its recent takeover of Merrill Lynch. Discontent over losses arising from Merrill has prompted a movement to oust Bank of America's chief executive, Ken Lewis, from his position as chairman of the board.

Lewis said he was "gratified" with the performance of both Merrill and the mortgage company Countrywide Financial, which Bank of America rescued from the brink of bankruptcy a year ago.

[Demeter]

84. There's a :Lot of Businesses and Families Who Would Be Happy to "Break Even"

but I think even that is far too generous an assessment for BoA.

[truthisfreedom]

89. Unusual interim report from Donald Rowe:

This is an Interim Wall Street Digest Hotline Update for Monday, April 20, 2009, at 6:00 p.m. EST. Please read through to the end of our report for NEW trading recommendations.

Poor earnings reports weighed heavily on the markets today. At the close, the Dow dropped 289 points, closing at 7,842, while the Nasdaq fell 64 points, closing at 1,608. The S&P 500 lost 37 points, closing at 832. Oil closed $4.45 lower at $45.78 per barrel, and gold closed $19.60 higher at $887.50 per ounce.

Banks, financials, and credit card companies got hammered today, as further review of last week's first-quarter earnings reports showed accounting and rule changes provided most of the "reported profits."

According to a JPMorgan mortgage-bond analyst report dated April 17th, global banks are likely to suffer around $400 billion more in losses on toxic assets.

Even more disturbing to the financial sector, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, is the soon to be released results of the stress tests of 19 U.S. banks. The first problem is, these banks can't figure out how to release the results, or what to release. The results were originally due out in mid-April but have been postponed until May 4.

The second problem with the stress test results is; if all the banks pass, the test credibility will be questioned, and if some banks get failing grades and are forced to accept more government capital and oversight, they may be punished by investors and customers.

When asked about the stress test, Wayne Abernathy, Executive Vice President of the American Bankers Association in Washington said, "There are plenty of ways to go wrong here. It might have sounded good at the time, but now looking back, it has far more risk than benefit."

Fortune magazine reported that 2008 was the worst year in history for Fortune 500 companies, with profits down 85 percent from the previous year.

The U.S. is still experiencing record home foreclosures and job losses, both driving consumer sentiment to record lows. First-quarter earnings reports show clear signs consumer spending is continuing to retract.

Today's market sell-off will turn sentiment negative and create a trading opportunity.

The next Hotline Update will be on Tuesday, April 21, 2009, at 6:00 p.m. EST.

http://www.wallstreetdigest.com/hotline.php

[Demeter]

92. Stolen From Joanne98: AIG closes deal for $30 billion in new federal funds

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE53J4N620090420


Source: Reuters


NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group Inc (AIG.N), which has received more than $150 billion in taxpayer support since last September, has closed a deal to access nearly $30 billion in additional federal funds.

In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday, AIG said it would issue and sell to the U.S. Treasury 300,000 preferred shares, including warrants to purchase common stock, in exchange for up to $29.835 billion.

The original amount agreed in early March was $30 billion, but officials subtracted $165 million in retention bonuses paid to employees of the AIG Financial Products unit last month.

The bonuses set off a maelstrom of protest across the United States. The financial products unit is blamed for most of the red ink at AIG, and taxpayers balked at executives of the unit being paid extra while the nation grapples with rising unemployment and recession.

[DemReadingDU]

94. Martin Weiss: Big bank profits are bogus! Massive public deception!

4/20/09 Big bank profits are bogus! Massive public deception!
Martin Weiss

A big bank CEO on a mission to deceive the public doesn’t have to tell outright lies. He can con people just as easily by using “perfectly legal” tricks, shams, and accounting ruses.

First, I’ll give you the big-picture facts. Then, I’ll show you how big U.S. banks are painting lipstick on some of the fattest pigs ever raised.

Six of America’s Largest
Banks at Risk of Failure

As we have written here so often … as we documented in our recent white paper … as we showed in our presentation to the National Press Club … and as we explained again with new data in our follow-up press conference, the nation’s banking troubles are many times more severe than the authorities are admitting.

First, look at the megabanks: The authorities SAY that all of the 14 largest banks have earned a “passing” grade in their just-completed “stress tests.” But just six months ago, the authorities swore that, without a massive injection of taxpayer funds, those same banks would suffer a fatal meltdown.

Was the bad-debt disease magically cured? Did the economy miraculously turn around? Not quite. In fact, we have overwhelming evidence that the condition of the nation’s banks has deteriorated massively since then.

How can our trusted authorities be so blatantly deceptive and still keep their jobs? Perhaps you should ask Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Not long ago, for example, he declared that the total losses from the debt crisis would not exceed $100 billion, while conveying the hope that most of those losses could be soon written off. Also around that time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated the losses would be $1 trillion, with only a small percentage written off.

The IMF’s latest estimate: $4 trillion in losses, with only one-third of those written off so far. Bernanke’s error factor: He was 4,000 percent off the mark, in a world where 50 percent errors can be lethal.

Meanwhile, based on fourth quarter Fed data, we find that, among the nation’s megabanks, six are at risk of failure in our opinion (seven if you count Wachovia and Wells Fargo as separate institutions).

click to read about the Mega banks, regional banks, and recommendations
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/big-bank-profits-are-bogus-massive-public-deception-33228