Scientists see this flu strain as relatively mild

[steven johnson]

Source: Chicago Tribune

As the World Health Organization raised its infectious disease alert level Wednesday and health officials confirmed the first death linked to swine flu inside U.S. borders, scientists studying the virus are coming to the consensus that this hybrid strain of influenza -- at least in its current form -- isn't shaping up to be as fatal as the strains that caused some previous pandemics.

In fact, the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month, may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare.

Flu viruses are known to be notoriously unpredictable, and this strain could mutate at any point -- becoming either more benign or dangerously severe. But mounting preliminary evidence from genetics labs, epidemiology models and simple mathematics suggests that the worst-case scenarios are likely to be avoided in the current outbreak.

"This virus doesn't have anywhere near the capacity to kill like the 1918 virus," which claimed an estimated 50 million victims worldwide, said Richard Webby, a leading influenza virologist at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn.



Read more: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,5923718.story

---

Normal flu mortality is 0.24-0,96% with approximately 30,000 deaths per year in the US. Time will tell with this current pandemic swine flu. Everyone is worried about a repeat of the 1918 flu.

[Jeep789]

1. k&r

[Name removed]

37. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[liberal N proud]

2. LA Times article here

http://www.latimes.com/news/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,5288890.story?track=ntothtml

[annabanana]

3. Can we rec this up to help counteract some of the hyperventilation

about this thing?

[nichomachus]

42. The only ones hyperventilating

are the people hyperventilating over what they perceive as hyperventilation.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

80. Maybe someone can show it to Biden.

[drm604]

4. That's definitely comforting.

I'm still bothered by one aspect of this. In past years we've always had sufficient time to develop a vaccine against the latest strain. This new strain has arisen too fast for that. This means that high risk groups won't have any protection this time, and even typical influenza can kill. For example, my elderly mother who has heart issues and asthma may have no protection against it. On the other hand she's old enough to have been exposed to the 1957 pandemic so, according to the article, she may have some natural immunity to this one. It's hard to say.

So don't panic but please people, don't dismiss it entirely. Think of people like her, wash your hands, cover your mouth when you cough, and stay home if you're sick.

[Frank Cannon]

5. Actually, that's good advice anytime, pandemic or no

And it shouldn't take panic over a Stephen King's The Stand scenario to have to make people do that.

[drm604]

6. Yes, it is good advice but people don't do it.

It shouldn't take a "Stand" scenario, but I'm not suggesting such a scenario, and I don't see many people on here who are.

[elocs]

14. Yes, people...don't...do...it--no matter how much and often they are nagged about it.

That's life.

[drm604]

15. So I'm a nag?

What's the point of your post?

[elocs]

21. The point is that you hear this good common sense advice all the time,

but many people simply will not do it no matter what.

[drm604]

30. I may have misinterpreted your post as being more hostile than it was.

If so, I apologize. I shouldn't post before coffee. :hi:

[TheEuclideanOne]

38. I had the flu when I read The Stand

The stand is one of my favorite books and when I was reading it I was coughing and sneezing because, coincidentally I happened to have the flu at the time. It definitely made me worry.

[iamjoy]

16. Don't Cover With Your Hands

When you cough or sneeze, don't do so into your hand - if you don't have a tissue handy, cough or sneeze into the crook of your elbow. We touch everything with our hands

Of course, wash hands frequently...

[drm604]

31. I've heard the crook of the elbow advice before.

It's a good idea. They media should be mentioning it.

[TZ]

23. A vaccine is probably 3-4 months away

but initial work on one HAS begun.

[SheilaT]

36. Developing a new vaccine is

always a matter of guessing which flu strains will be the next ones to develop the vaccine against. Always. Some years they guess wrong.

I am constantly amazed and appalled at the hype and hysteria out there about things like the flue, and sadly, DU is guilty of a lot of hype and hysteria. I did comment several months back that this seemed to be the first year on DU that there weren't multiple threads screaming that THIS year's flu outbreak was going to be especially deadly and everyone had to rush out and get a flu shot IMMEDIATELY or we would ALL DIE. Meanwhile, how many people here on DU continue to smoke, even though a full third of them will die of smoking related diseases? How many here are overweight or obese and never exercise? And so on.

It does seem to me that the coverage of what is still a relatively small number of cases and deaths is quite out of proportion to what's actually going on. At the same time our schools are still underfunded, we have no universal health care, millions of people have lost their jobs, President Obama has become an apologist for the previous administration. I'm leaving out a few things, but you get the idea.

[DLnyc]

48. With all due respect, I think you are off a little in your assessment.

I've followed this story pretty closely, not on the sensational cable channels, but through print media, some good posts here and CDC and WHO information. The best scientists who study these things concluded (based on hard data like gene sequences, mortality rates and demographics) that this had the potential to be a very deadly, widespread pandemic. Even if it turns out that it doesn't happen that way, these scientists are not fools or 'sensationalists'. If you followed the actual science I think you would see that they know what they are talking about.

[FiveGoodMen]

72. Did those same people also whip up the fear about SARS, Bird Flu, etc?

All I see is a world full of people (including the professionals) chomping at the bit for a real disaster.

Every time any new disease emerges, we have to revisit the 1918 Flu.

I'm sick of it.

[SheilaT]

79. They also whipped up the fear

of swine flu back in 1976. Anyone else here old enough to remember? One soldier, yes ONE soldier died of what probably wasn't even swine flu at Fort Dix and the medical establishment started hyper-ventilating about an outbreak to rival the Spanish flu, rushed a vaccine to market which then damaged a number of people.

I, too, am sick of the constant assumption that things will be as bad as 1918. Or Stephen King's book The Stand.

I keep on trying to point out that an awful lot of things are very, very different from ninety plus years ago. To start with, ninety years ago a lot of people in this country did not have running water in their homes. Routine hand-washing simply wasn't as routine as it is now.

Plus, if you read the John Berry book about the 1918 flu (which I highly recommend), you learn that it was crowded army camps in this country, packed full with young soldiers, many of whom literally had not been off the farm until they volunteered or were drafted for the army, and who as a consequence did not have an immune system that had come up against a lot of different viruses, those soldiers were crammed together in somewhat less than sanitary conditions, despite repeated warnings by army and civilian doctors that these were exactly the conditions that could lead to disease outbreaks. In addition, President Wilson refused to stop transporting soldiers around the country and across the ocean despite clear evidence that that was exactly how the flu was being spread.

[quidam56]

63. And, stay away from hospitals, nursing homes and emergency rooms,

they are breeding grounds for MRSA ( Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus Aurea's ) Because of our high quality health care system, disease is running rampant, children and the elderly don't need MRSA on top of the flu, it's already killing healthy adults. See for yourself what is deemed, defended and supported as "the acceptable standards of health care" http://www.wisecountyissues.com/?p=62 in Tennessee and Virginia. We need a cure for health care stat !

[marshall]

75. I hope the family of that child who died in Houston find some comfort in this, too

When they are accused by the yokels of unleashing a modern day Typhoid Mary on the Galleria.

[ExPatLeftist]

7. Swine Flu is pure fearmongering

It must be a slow news cycle.

I wonder how many times the media will fall all over itself with some flu hysteria before everyone starts to just ignore it. Then a real disease will hit and we will brush it off... ooops.

"The Little Boy that Cried Wolf" should be required reading in journalism courses.

[notesdev]

9. I am coming around to concurrence

Doc I know says the hospitals with these folks are saying the patients with this aren't that sick. I think this is stage-managed and more a pandemic-response test than a real pandemic.

[iamjoy]

17. Now, Let's Be Fair

We know the media loves to scare us but let's imagine they were downplaying this

There would be those - yes on DU - saying they are deliberately suppressing information for some nefarious purpose or other. Some would say they are understating the deaths because they are all in Mexicans and Americans don't care about foreigners.

I believe it is a cause for concern, but not alarm. What's troublesome about this is that it kills people who are young adults to middle age and have no known health issues whereas normally the flu kills the very young or elderly or sick. I think that is what this swine flu has in common with some of the global pandemics of the past century

As for the little boy who cried wolf - we go through that with everything from hurricanes to terrorist attacks. In addition to fear, death, disaster, etc selling no media outlet wants to miss the big story of the year and in their eagerness, they often make the big story.

[elocs]

22. And the news and news shows are flogging the story for all it is worth.

I just saw a poll on Good Morning America which said that 78% of Americans are NOT concerned about the swine flu.

[TZ]

25. So the World Health Organization is a bunch of fear mongers?

Always glad to hear the keyboard warrior types believe they know more than the world's experts in infectious disease.
I'll take the advice of scientists over internet nitwits anyday...

[ExPatLeftist]

32. Guess we'll have to wait and see

who the "internet nitwit" is...

WTF do youn know about what "type" I am, BTW?

And how are you even typing? I thought we were all dead of Avian Flu years ago.

PS Eat me. :)

[Egnever]

69. Wasnt it the scientists above saying it was mild?

[kestrel91316]

77. DING DING DING!!!! Best post of the day!!!

[hedgehog]

59. How can you tell ahead of time what path an infection wil take?

The point is, this flu has several aspects which are warning signs; the combination of viruses, the season it's appearing, the people it's affecting. It may well fade away, which would be a very good thing. We won't really know until this time next year.

[Hugin]

8. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but, didn't the 1918 flu make two passes?

The first one went relatively un-noticed, as it was 'relatively mild' and on the second pass it became much more deadly.

I hope the first wave of this one is mild... I really do. But, let's be brewing up a vaccine for distribution in the near future to keep a repeat of subsequent exposures from being as damaging.

[drm604]

11. This is mentioned at the end of the article.

Hopefully they will have a vaccine ready just in case.

[Hissyspit]

12. Not sure, but the pandemic lasted from March 1918 to June 1920, maybe even starting in 1917

depending on which researcher you agree with. Been a while since I read the magazine article that I read that went into real detail about it.

[CreekDog]

73. is it possible that one would hope to get this more mild form now?

in hopes of possible immunity for a nastier version?

i mean, not really, but it does make you think.

[bushmeister0]

13. From what i heard it popped up briefly in the spring and then disappeared.

The problem was, it reappeared in August in it's more bad ass form.

[Demeter]

20. Actually, It Made Three Passes

[Hannah Bell]

81. no, the first one was noticed, there were hundreds of thousands of cases.

it just wasn't very deadly - except in spots. & actually, the "wave" thing seems a bit of a misnomer - it never really went away, fairly big clusters of cases popped up regularly across the globe until the second large outbreak.

per berry's book which i just read.

[Botany]

10. It's a killer!

[efhmc]

53. Looks like a javelina, not a swine, a peccary.

[K Gardner]

18. Kicking this, although the "end of the world as we know it" posts are SO entertaining.

[tclambert]

19. So if it's mild now, but could mutate into a deadlier form, shouldn't try to catch it now?

Then we'd be safe from a more lethal variant. If it's a choice between mildly sick now and mostly dead later, mildly sick sounds good. The big problem with 2009 H1N1 flu seems to be the lack of immunity for anyone who didn't have the flu in 1957. This mild form may be the vaccine against a more virulent form. Maybe we should help it spread far and wide. Then we'll have more people with immunity to it when and if it mutates.

Quick, everyone head for Mexico!

[TZ]

26. Its also possible that it could mutate again

to something entirely new and then even those who had it would lose immunity. We are talking about a virus that has jumped TWO species...Thats why epidemiologists are concerned..its shown that it could mutate very rapidly. Especially if ill informed fools overuse anti-virals which WILL cause drug resistance...Honestly thats my big concern..overuse of the meds for people that really don't need it.

[amandabeech]

76. This flu may spread rapidly, because so many people have no immunity.

If this thing gets going in areas with a lot of H5N1 Avian flu, such as SE Asia and North Africa, this layman will be a little nervous that this flu could reassort in some human, pig or bird, and pick up some of the virulence of H5N1 but not the low H2H transmissibility of that virus.

I've seen this possibility mentioned in a couple of places by people who know something about virology. I shoulda kept the cites.

[AndyA]

24. This just emphasizes to me that people need to pay more attention to hygiene.

Wash your hands after going to the bathroom, people. I don't think there's a day that goes by that I don't see someone finish their business and walk straight out, touching the bathroom door handle with their dirty hands. YUCK.

I feel like saying something to them about it, because now anyone who touches that door handle is spreading their germs.

So many people are nasty and inconsiderate of others. If they'd wash their hands, cover their mouths when coughing, and not sneeze without covering their nose and mouth, a lot of these illnesses would never get spread the way they do.

I know there are areas of the world where washing hands may not be an option, but most of the developed areas have readily available facilities to wash hands, and still so many don't bother.

[Adelante]

27. What's the San Diego reference?

"...the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month"

I don't remember seeing this stated before. What's the story there? Thanks.

[muriel_volestrangler]

28. It would seem to have been a San Diego patient that was first identified as having the new strain

But the 2009 H1N1 strain was first identified in a patient in San Diego, he said. Once the CDC informed the world of a new flu virus, Canadian virus hunters announced that the disease strain spreading across Mexico was the same virus identified in San Diego.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/DN-fluborder_30bus.ART.State.Edition2.4a5fdbd.html

and also:

Five days since the announcement of Mexico's swine flu epidemic, the search for the source of the new virus that combines pig, bird and human influenza is focusing on three main possible sites.

The first is the village of La Gloria on the edge of a large flat valley about 250 kilometres east of Mexico City where samples taken from a five-year-old boy on 3 April remain the earliest yet confirmed case of the disease.

The second focuses on San Diego, California where two other people became sick with the same virus around the same time, and the third on the southern Mexican city of Oaxaca where a 39-year-old census taker died on 12 April.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/29/swine-flu-mexico-la-gloria

What appears to have been the first news report - Tuesday April 21st:

A new type of swine flu has infected at least two children in California and while both have recovered, U.S. health officials said on Tuesday they were looking for more cases.

They say it is possible the children were infected by other people and not by pigs, and said they have consulted with officials in Canada, Mexico and at the World Health Organization although there is no evidence that the new virus is circulating widely.

In a special alert, the CDC asked doctors in California's San Diego and Imperial counties, on the border with Mexico, to test anyone with flu-like symptoms and send the samples in for testing.

"Both of these kids came to our attention because they were seen in clinics which do routine surveillance for influenza infections," the CDC's Dr. Lyn Finelli told reporters in a telephone briefing.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUKTRE53K4XU20090421?sp=true

[Adelante]

34. Thank you

I completely missed it.

[Bette Noir]

43. There was a flu-type bug that went around LA last month.

I had it, as did everyone I know. None of us went to doctors, as it was relatively mild, although long-lasting (3 weeks). I wonder whether we've already had the current plague, and are now immune?

[stubtoe]

56. OH! I had the same crap, So did Mr. Stubtoe, We're still hacking.

Probably a different virus though.

[hedgehog]

61. Has there been any solid indication that the Mexican government

was unaware of this virus or tried to cover it up? My impression is that Mexican authorities tried to ignore this until so many people were getting sick that it couldn't be ignored. If that's the situation, it would explain why people are so worried. Even if the flu is not a unique killer, if enough people are sick, some will die. If you hear of someone's aunt's friend's husband's cousin who died, and your government is stonewalling all questions, you will fear the worst.

[muriel_volestrangler]

68. No, I've seen nothing like that

They were 'unaware' as in 'unaware that it's a novel strain of flu, rather than an existing one'.

The first report in English about Mexico I can find is this:

Been to Mexico lately ... Health Unit thinks you should know this
By Kate Adams
BayToday.ca
Wednesday, April 22, 2009



North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit
News Release

********************

The North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit advises that a number of severe respiratory illness (SRI) cases are occurring in various locations of south and central Mexico. At this time, no cases have been reported outside of Mexico. Physicians and local healthcare workers are asked to actively watch for cases of SRI, especially in people who have returned from Mexico within the last two weeks.

The people in Mexico who have SRI began with influenza-like symptoms that rapidly progressed to severe respiratory distress in about 5 days, with many requiring mechanical ventilation. Some patients have died. Most people who became ill were previously healthy young adults aged between 25-44 years old. Some health care workers have also been affected.

http://www.baytoday.ca/content/news/details.asp?c=31073

So that's a day after the San Diego cases were reported in the press. That (which was also reported in several other Canadian outlets at that time) seems to be what was later reported as H1N1 flu in Mexico. By Friday, the 2 stories seem to get married here:

Mexico is canceling classes for millions of children in the heart of the country on Friday after influenza killed around 20 people in recent weeks.

Canada's government advised doctors to be on the alert for reports of illness from people who recently traveled to Mexico, although it did not advise against visiting the popular beach vacation destination.
...
Mexico's flu season normally ends in February or March, but it has extended longer this year, the government said.
...
In the United States, seven people have been diagnosed with a new kind of swine flu in California and Texas, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported.

All seven people there have recovered but the virus itself is a never-before-seen mixture of viruses typical among pigs, birds and humans, the CDC said.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUKN23377982

I think it was the identification in the US that got the Mexicans to look again at their cases; and they decided it was the H1N1 strain - which, given the changing numbers compared with the WHO 'official confirmation' numbers, may mean they classified some cases as H1N1 when they were some other flu strain.

[FourScore]

29. Although this is encouraging, there are still a couple of factors

to keep in mind.

First of all, this is not flu season, we will know more about it's lethal capacity starting in the fall.

Secondly, the swine flu of 1918 got off to a weak start as well. Pandemics come in waves. Still, this is not 1918, and the fact that it has begun in early spring gives us a chance to get a vaccine out there before it becomes too deadly.

It will be interesting to see how this flu plays out in the southern hemisphere over the next few months.

[Hannah Bell]

82. weak in terms of deaths, but there were hundreds of thousands of cases requiring

hospitalization globally in a matter of months. rather different from this current flu.

[Deep13]

33. The killer 1918 flu happened in autumn and winter.

It was preceded by a mild form the previous summer. Those who contracted the mild summer variety had considerable resistence to the pandemic winter strain.

[jpak]

35. Based on news reports - H1N1 has a mortality rate of 6% in Mexico

~150 deaths out of ~2400 cases.

The number of actually cases, however, may be under-reported...

[mwb970]

39. I heard one Mexican expert say there were many more than 2400 cases.

Hundreds of thousands, he thought. The people there are poor and don't use the inefficient medical system much. The swine-flu death rate is actually quite small, much smaller than the regular seasonal flu. For example, in the week that we've been quaking over swine flu, 800+ people have died in America of regular flu without any panic or even any news stories about any of them. One Mexican kid dies in a Texas hospital and it's the Black Death coming for us.

:eyes:

[hedgehog]

62. Again, 800+ people died of a flu that most of us have some

resistance to, that isn't particularly lethal and that we can get vaccinated against. Now comes along a virus that none of us has any resistance to, that may be very harmful and for which a vaccine is 4 to 6 months away. Oh, and it seems to spread easily. This may all fade away into nothing or it could grow. The best way to keep it from growing is to take steps now.

[mwb970]

64. I guess I am skeptical after SARS, bird flu, killer bees, alar, etc., etc.

Do you remember the 1976 swine flu scare? The news media were hysterical. In the end, the number of American deaths was : one.

Maybe this is real. But all the other overhyped scares down through the years sounded real, too.

[CreekDog]

74. Don't discount "killer bees". I had a friend who was killed by them.

He's lucky to be alive today.

[Hannah Bell]

83. i think you left out a word.

[CreekDog]

86. ohhhh

not really. :evilgrin:

[Fiendish Thingy]

40. When WHO and CDC concur with Richard Webby, then I might feel reassured...

It amazes me how people are still spouting the "thousands of people die from flu every year" nonsense; Seasonal flu is Apples, and we're talking about Oranges here...the posts about the 1918 flu making several passes and mutating into more virulent forms should be heeded...if we're lucky, this strain will mutate into a milder form, but we're not likely to know for months.

Look up "cytokine storm" to learn more about why this flu is different from your garden variety seasonal flu...

This is indeed cause for concern, hopefully not alarm.

[ronnie624]

57. Very interesting. Thanks for the reference.

Here's a link:

<http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Science.PrimerCytokineStorm>

[Hannah Bell]

84. cytokine storm is a theory, & it's in the process of being, if not debunked,

at least revised.


"But now a team of St. Jude investigators have raised issues about that widely held theory by showing that depression of cytokines in mice infected with a particularly virulent strain of the virus still causes the mice to die. The team said the new finding suggests that pathogenicity is a complex question of host response and virus load. Scientists should concentrate on finding ways to reduce the amount of the virus in an infected person as well as analyzing the concept of the cytokine storm—a storm that is, caused by a sustained infection with the virus itself."

http://www.stjude.org/stjude/v/index.jsp?vgnextoid=28cfb57b808c5110VgnVCM1000001e0215acRCRD&vgnextchannel=60b413c016118010VgnVCM1000000e2015acRCRD

[Barack_America]

41. Keep your logic out of our panic!

Stoopid WHO!

[grahamhgreen]

44. Anything to keep our minds off of TORTURE! Bird flu, SARS, pen-guns, bombs in baby strollers, etc..

[ananda]

45. Ouch for the mediablitz of fear, alarm, and racism.

nt

[DemzRock]

46. Mexico cuts confirmed flu deaths toll to 7

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20090429-202096/Mexico-cuts-confirmed-flu-deaths-toll-to-7

[AlphaCentauri]

50. There are more confirmed cases in the US than in Mexico

US 97
Mexico 91

[grahamhgreen]

67. Common cold kills 100 people a year

[kegler14]

47. Amusing to note that both liberal and conservative sites

are putting down the "hysteria" and so forth.

[JenniferJuniper]

49. That's the problem with the media constantly crying wolf.

When the wolf does come to the door one of these days, it will be a shock.

[pjt7]

52. The article state TWICE that

an average of 36,000 people die a year from flu epidemics.

Stay strong folks, there is real work to do.

[valerief]

51. I had the flu many years ago when I was 14 or 15. I thought I was going to die.

I could hardly pull myself out of bed to get to the bathroom. I've never had it again. I hope to never have it.

[earth mom]

54. So where are those who've been fanning the flames of fear around here?

Haven't seen them post on this thread yet. :eyes:

p.s. I told you so that this whole thing was terra terra b.s. to stop the discussion about torture.

[Mojorabbit]

55. I'll post this again

This may stay mild. But if it is unstable and mutates I am glad the world has been proactive in preparation. I sure would not want to wait till it all of a sudden did mutate and everyone was caught with their pants down. I am totally comfortable with the measures being taken as they are prudent.

http://blogs.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/
April 29, 2009
As Swine Flu Spreads, Its Chances to Mutate Increase

TOKYO—Swine flu has reached Asia, with South Korea reporting its first suspected case yesterday. Like the vast majority of other cases outside Mexico so far, it is mild, but virologist Kennedy Shortridge warns that is no reason for complacency. He says that the farther the virus spreads, the more chance it will mix, or reassort, with other flu viruses in circulation and turn into something more lethal. "The prospects for change are considerable and worrying," he says.

Shortridge is a professor emeritus at the University of Hong Kong, where he led investigations into the initial emergence of H5N1 avian influenza in 1997, when it killed six of the 18 people it infected. The city squelched that outbreak by slaughtering all 1.4 million chickens and ducks in the territory. H5N1 re-emerged in 2003 and since then has claimed 257 lives while devastating poultry flocks throughout much of Asia and parts of Africa. He has long advocated global cooperation in the surveillance of circulating flu viruses to spot emerging new strains so public health officials could plan a response and drug companies could get a head start in making vaccines.

Shortridge was among the first to suggest that pigs might act as mixing vessels for new combinations of viruses. And the swine flu now spreading from Mexico "fits into the mixing vessel hypothesis," he says.

Analysis of flu specimens by Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg and at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia, have found that the virus is made up of pieces of human, swine, and avian viruses from North America, Europe, and Asia. The mixture "gives an order of complexity we really don't understand at this point," Shortridge says.

In particular, he says he is concerned that this patched-together virus might not be stable and could easily reassort with other viruses encountered in a human or animal host. The virus has now spread to Asia, where the H5N1 virus is circulating. And he says that in many areas there are strains of human H1N1 in circulation that are resistant to Tamiflu, the drug of choice for treating the disease in humans. He speculates that swapping one or more genes among these viruses could result in a virus that is more pathogenic or more easily passed from person to person or both.

As a precaution, Shortridge suggests sequencing as many viral samples as quickly as possible to watch for any telltale changes in the virus—a massive job requiring worldwide cooperation. He says such cooperation seems to be off to a good start, thanks to the experience of dealing with the 2003 SARS crisis and recent efforts to prepare for an influenza pandemic. "There is a success story in this in that the world is alert" to the possibility of a pandemic, he says. Still, he adds, even better collaboration and communication will be required in the face of a threat that could change overnight.

[gauguin57]

58. Joe's got a biiiiiig mooooouth!

[kestrel91316]

60. I have suspected as much in the past couple of days. The vast majority

of US cases have been so mild that no treatment was needed. I think we will eventually find that this has also been the case in Mexico, and that only the small percentage of major cases have ended up in the hospital or dead.

The one US fatality so far had two strikes against him for increased risk: 23 months old, and supposedly some serious pre-existing health condition.

This is no reason to be lackadaisical, and we still need to work very hard to limit or at least slow down the spread, to avoid overtaxing our healthcare systems. Tens of thousands of Americans die of seasonal flu annually, and tens of thousands could yet die of this.

So be considerate of others and use good respiratory etiquette.

[Bushknew]

65. Benefits of Grapefruit Seed Extract

http://www.pureliquidgold.com/benefits-of-grapefruit-seed-extract.htm

[LaPera]

66. Republicans are trying to politicize to freak everyone out, (blame immigrants, Obama, Dems &

government.

[bikebloke]

70. Trial Run?

Maybe they're using this mild strain to test public health readiness and vaccine research. Find the holes in the system now, so they'll be better prepared for whenever the big one emerges.

[mzmolly]

71. Good to see some clarity. Though perhaps this scare will

reinforce common sense advice about hygiene and staying home when ill.

[junior college]

78. Agreed. This flu bullcrap is so overblown.

Even relatively reasonable people are losing their cool over this flu scare. Time to take a deep breath and calm down.

[Slick Nick]

85. agreed

people forget hundreds if not thousands die every year from the flu.