STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 30

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 30, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 29, 2009

Dow... 9,742.20 -47.16 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq... 2,124.04 -6.70 (-0.31%)
S&P 500... 1,060.61 -2.37 (-0.22%)
Gold future... 994.40 +0.30 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.29 +0.01 (+0.43%)
30-Year Bond 4.02 -0.02 (-0.42%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Market Messages from the Outer Fringe
Setting the Stage for Epic Disappointment in 2010(?)
BY FRANK BARBERA

As the bullish headlines continue to sway the masses that hope springs eternal, and that global economic recovery lies directly ahead, the outlook in our view for 2010 remains highly uncertain. In the weeks and months ahead, while it will be key to track a number of tried and true leading economic indicators, we also like to look below the surface as some of the lesser follow economically sensitive gauges. Call them - indicators of the outer fringe. In this case, one of our favorite fringe ‘battlefield’ type gauges is the shipping rate or shipping rate indices put out by the famous Baltic Exchange. These various indices measure the day rates for various types and sizes of merchant shipping. There is an aggregate index known as the Baltic Freight Index, which encompasses a number of sub-indices including day rates for dry goods, and a variety of energy related components which track tankers and of different shapes and sizes. The key point here is very simple, when the global economy is genuinely improving, these day rates tend to trend higher, and to that end, guess what is not happening in recent weeks? In the charts below, we take a look at the trend of the Baltic Dry Index, and some of the energy related, crude oil shipping rates. Get the idea, that things are not trending up?

.....

In our view, if it should turn out that next year is not the recovery of substance that so many now expect, the stage will be set for disappointment of the most epic sort. Psychologically speaking, if the herd is heading for another episode of fear and disappointment, the potential ramifications will be felt along a very wide fault line as bullish expectations have been riding very high over the last few weeks.

.....

In our view, real change is always seen at the periphery, often in the underlying message of obscure markets like the Shipping rates, or perhaps to cite another example, in the value of Gaming shares. In the Gaming shares, we have an entire fringe sector that is absolutely manically leveraged to debt and debt dependent to the extreme. They now reside in the giant hangover of the Great Las Vegas/Macau building/development booms of the last decade. “Take two aspirin and call me in the morning”, is not likely to be any kind of quick fix as this industry is in desperate need of a genuine recovery. Yet, at the heart of a recovery that leads people into the gambling dens of Vegas and Macau, there needs to be a sustained asset re-inflation. To this end, the Gaming stocks are on the far end of the high dive board acting like happy days are here again.. In our view, one small misstep and its off the plank and into the drink, snake eyes for the gaming group. Consequently, we like to watch the price action of the GST Gaming Index, which includes a wide variety of usual suspects such as Bally Tech, IGT, Penn National, Las Vegas Sands, MGM, Wynn and others. So far, what we see is a five wave bull market that ended at the peak in October 2007 (at 87.09), followed by a five wave collapse into the March 2009 lows at 9.44, a heart stopping decline of 89.16%. Since those lows, the index has been fueled by the herd mentality of eternal hope, (ed. right along with other heavily marginal sectors such as Housing and REITS) soaring by a stunning 224.8% in just the last 6 months. Now annualized that!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Roland99]

10. one small misstep and it's off the plank and into the drink

the house of cards almost collapsed but we taxpayers (and our children and their children) propped it back up but we can't handle the strain much longer.

[Demeter]

16. The Only Uncertainies Are the Timing and the Casualty Numbers

and how many crooks will be put in jail, and whether ANY regulation will ever be forthcoming.

[Ghost Dog]

28. Global stocks to pause for breath after sprint

LONDON (Reuters) - Major world stock markets will likely stutter to the end of the year after a strong push since March to try to wipe out massive losses from a stinging global recession, Reuters polls found.

Quarterly surveys of over 180 equity strategists globally showed leading stock markets in New York, Tokyo and London would all end the year around current levels after clocking huge double digit gains since dismal lows in March.

That would still leave them down on 2008's huge losses, but would be a remarkable turnaround, powered by growing optimism that a recovery is at hand after the worst recession in decades.

Thirteen countries' stock markets surveyed were seen at higher levels than year-end forecasts given in June, with first-time forecasts for South Africa also showing continued upward momentum.

"The fundamentals have improved. However figures are mostly driven by government and central bank intervention. When this wears off the underlying fragility of the world economy will once again be demonstrated," said Philippe Gijsels at BNP Paribas Fortis.

"Sentiment has become way too optimistic."

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLNE58T01320090930?sp=true

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:15 ADP Employment Sep
Briefing.com -250K
Consensus -200K
Prior -298K

08:30 GDP - Final Q2
Briefing.com -1.2%
Consensus -1.2%
Prior -1.0%

09:45 Chicago PMI Sep
Briefing.com 53.5
Consensus 52.0
Prior 50.0

10:30 Crude Inventories 09/25
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 2.85M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

19. U.S. Sept. ADP employment down 254,000

U.S. Sept. ADP employment down 254,000
8:15am Today

[rfranklin]

24. U.S. stocks drop sharply along with Chicago PMI

U.S. stocks drop sharply along with Chicago PMI

(MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks thudded steeply lower on Wednesday after an index of manufacturing activity in the Chicago area dropped. The Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (INDU 9,624, -118.19, -1.21%) fell 94.01 points to 9,648.19. The S&P 500 /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 1,048, -12.24, -1.15%) dropped 10.03 points to 1,050.58, and the Nasdaq Composite /quotes/comstock/10y!i:comp (COMP 2,097, -26.57, -1.25%) shed 18.30 points to 2,105.74.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-drop-sharply-along-with-chicago-pmi-2009-09-30

[ozymandius]

3. Oil above $67 in Asia despite high inventories

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $67 a barrel Wednesday in Asia despite an increase in U.S. crude inventories for a third week, which suggests consumer demand remains weak.

Benchmark crude for November delivery was up 42 cents at $67.13 by late afternoon in Singapore in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 13 cents to settle at $66.71 on Tuesday.

U.S. oil inventories rose last week, the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday. Crude stocks increased 2.8 million barrels while analysts had expected a jump of 2.1 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

17. Oil rises towards $68 as dollar slips

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE56T3EA20090930?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&sp=true

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose toward $68 per barrel on Wednesday, buoyed by a fall in the dollar against major currencies at the end of the financial quarter, with the market also awaiting key U.S. oil data later in the day.

Prices fell on Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported builds in crude and distillate stocks. Traders said they expected those figures to be confirmed at 1430 GMT (10:30 a.m. EDT) by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

U.S. crude futures were up 93 cents to $67.64 a barrel by 0937 GMT (5:37 a.m. EDT), after hitting a high of $67.78. London Brent crude gained 88 cents to $66.37 a barrel.

Traders said a weakening in the value of the dollar against major currencies, and also against resource currencies such as the Australian dollar, on month-end and quarter-end buying, was supporting the oil market.

Oil prices often strengthen when the U.S. currency falls because oil is usually priced in dollars.

...more...

[ozymandius]

4. IMF cuts global debt writedown estimate to $3.4 trillion

ISTANBUL (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday lowered its estimate for global writedowns for banks and other financial institutions to roughly $3.4 trillion but warned that loan losses were set to rise as unemployment and associated delinquencies increase.

In April the IMF estimated in its Global Financial Stability Report that global bank losses could reach $4 trillion but said it cut the figure by $600 billion to reflect rising securities values and new methodology for calculating writedowns.

.....

The report said that while banks have enough capital to survive, their earnings are not expected to fully offset writedowns expected over the next 18 months.

.....

It said loan losses are expected to account for around two- thirds of total writedowns between 2007 and 2010, with housing the hardest hit in the United States and foreign loans the big contributors to loan losses in Britain and the euro area.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090930/bs_nm/us_imf_financial

[ozymandius]

5. Asia markets mixed as US confidence drops

BANGKOK – Asian stock markets were mixed Wednesday as a surprise drop in U.S. consumer confidence sowed new doubts about the pace of economic recovery. European shares gained modestly.

.....

Wall Street fell Tuesday after the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell in September. Economists had been expecting a reading of 57; instead it came in at 53.1.

.....

Early in Europe, France's CAC-40 gained 0.4 percent, Germany's DAX advanced 0.3 percent, and Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.2 percent. Futures pointed to modest gains Wednesday on Wall Street. Dow futures added 18, or 0.2 percent, to 9,691.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 stock average closed up 33.03 points, or 0.3 percent, at 10,133.23 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 57.92, or 0.3 percent, to 20,955.25. South Korea's Kospi lost 1 percent to 1,673.14.

China's Shanghai index rose 0.9 percent to 2,779.43. China's financial markets close Thursday for the weeklong National Day holiday and reopen October 9.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090930/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets_18

[ozymandius]

6. Officials: Fed will need to boost rates quickly

WASHINGTON – To prevent inflation from taking off, the Federal Reserve will need to start boosting interest rates quickly and aggressively once the economy is back on firmer footing, Fed officials warned Tuesday.

"I expect that when it comes time to tighten monetary policy, my colleagues and I will move with an alacrity that, if needed, will be equal in speed and intensity" to when the Fed was slashing rates to battle the recession and the financial crisis, said Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Although Fisher has a reputation for being one of the Fed's toughest inflation fighters, it marked the second such warning by a central bank official in recent days. Fed member Kevin Warsh on Friday said the central bank will need to move swiftly when the time comes to raise rates.

.....

When the decision is made to boost rates, they will need to be "increased aggressively," argued Carl Walsh, a professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and an expert on monetary policy. "Committing to a gradual increase in the policy rate is not justified."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090929/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_exit_strategy

---

This will support the savings rate, which is already rising.

[ozymandius]

7. CIT in Last-Ditch Rescue Bid

The fate of CIT Group Inc. was hanging in the balance Tuesday as the large commercial lender readied a plan that would likely hand control of the company to its bondholders.

CIT is preparing a sweeping exchange offer that would eliminate 30% to 40% of its more than $30 billion in debt outstanding, said people familiar with the matter.

The plan would offer bondholders new debt secured by CIT assets, as well as nearly all of the equity in a restructured firm. The new debt would mature later than current debt, the impending maturity of which has posed a problem for CIT.

.....

If CIT does file, it would be the fifth-largest bankruptcy filing, by assets, in U.S. history, trailing only Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Washington Mutual Inc., WorldCom Inc. and General Motors Corp. CIT would continue operating under creditor protection, although other financial businesses have struggled to remain viable in bankruptcy.

Any bankruptcy filing would be at the holding company level with the goal of getting in and out of bankruptcy proceedings in 45 days.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125426707418850927.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[ozymandius]

9. CIT Said to Weigh Financing From Citigroup, Barclays

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- CIT Group Inc., the commercial lender that has said it may be forced to file for bankruptcy, is considering an offer of financing from Citigroup Inc. and Barclays Capital, people familiar with the situation said.

The 101-year-old company’s bondholders are also seeking to provide about $2 billion in loans as a restructuring deadline approaches tomorrow, said the people, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are private. New York-based CIT may choose other options, the people said.

CIT said in July it may seek court protection from creditors after Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Peek failed to win a second government bailout and had to turn to bondholders for $3 billion in rescue financing. The company said in an Aug. 17 regulatory filing that it has to come up with a plan “acceptable” to the majority of a bondholder steering committee that provided it with the emergency cash by Oct. 1.

.....


The company may be able to create $6 billion to $9 billion of capital by exchanging $30 billion of unsecured notes through debt swaps, Charles at Pressprich wrote in a Sept. 9 report.

CIT bonds rose last week on speculation the lender was in talks with Citigroup and Bank of America Corp. to refinance a $3 billion loan with an $8 billion to $10 billion secured-loan facility, New York-based fixed-income research firm CreditSights Inc. said in a Sept. 27 report.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a.j9NSfbWsTk

[dixiegrrrrl]

31. Does it say how much in fees the other banks make

arranging all these loans and re-issuance of debt?
Sounds like moving deck chairs around, to me.

[ozymandius]

8. Bank of America, Major Banks’ FDIC Premiums May Top $10 Billion

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s plan to rebuild its reserves may cost Bank of America Corp. and three of the largest U.S. banks more than $10 billion.

Bank of America, the biggest U.S. lender by deposits, may owe $3.5 billion under an FDIC proposal that banks prepay three years of premiums, based on the lowest assessment rate multiplied by the bank’s $900 billion in June 30 U.S. deposits.

.....

U.S. bank premiums range from 12 cents per $100 in deposits for the safest lenders to 45 cents for banks the U.S. considers risky, said Chris Cole, senior regulatory counsel for the Independent Community Bankers of America. The FDIC yesterday proposed asking banks to pay premiums for the fourth quarter and next three years on Dec. 30. The fees will raise $45 billion.

The FDIC is required by law to rebuild the fund when the reserve ratio, or the balance divided by insured deposits, falls below 1.15 percent. It was 0.22 percent on June 30 and sank to a deficit in the third quarter. The fund, drained by 95 bank failures this year, had $10.4 billion on the second quarter. The fund will erase its deficit by 2012, the FDIC said yesterday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aBkw6hK.EGBs

[DemReadingDU]

21. FDIC: banks to prepay $45B fees, but losses to be $100B

:wtf:


And where is that $55B to come from to close down those additional banks?



9/29/09
U.S. banking regulators proposed on Tuesday that banks prepay three years of fees to help cover the rising cost of bank failures, now put at $100 billion through 2013.

Banks would prepay $45 billion of regular quarterly assessments under the plan, but would not have to recognize the hit to their earnings until the fees are normally due.

FDIC staff raised their expectations for bank failure costs from 2009 through 2013 to $100 billion, up from a previous estimate of $70 billion.

If finalized, the proposal would require banks to prepay on December 30, 2009 their regular assessments for the fourth quarter of 2009 and for all of 2010, 2011 and 2012.

The FDIC said the insurance fund's balance is expected to become negative this quarter and will remain negative through 2012, but said the agency will still have plenty of cash to operate and handle bank failures.

"We have tons of money to protect insured depositors," Bair said before the vote. "This is really about the mechanics of funding."

more...
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/09/29/news/news-us-financial-regulation-fdic.html?_r=1

tons of money???
and where is the FDIC getting tons of money???
and the FDIC will have a negative balance thru 2012???

[Demeter]

29. Money Laundering

Banks borrow from Fed or Treasury, speculate, reap paper profits, pay bonuses, ship the rest to the FDIC. This is not an Economy, though.

[ozymandius]

11. Credit Default Swaps - Love 'Em, Ban 'Em, or Tax 'Em?

I have repeatedly argued that over-the-counter credit default swaps (CDS) - or at least at least "naked" CDS - should be banned ("naked CDS" is the term I coined to describe the situation where the buyer is not the referenced entity. I will not comment on whether or not there is a real economic benefit when the referenced company buys CDS concerning itself or its suppliers as an insurance policy; I will leave that analysis to the CDS experts).

Says Who?

I'm in good company, of course, as many economists and financial advisors have warned of the dangers of CDS:

-A Nobel prize-winning economist (George Akerlof) predicted in 1993 that CDS would cause the next meltdown

-Warren Buffett called them “weapons of mass destruction” in 2003

-Warren Buffett’s sidekick Charles T. Munger, has called the CDS prohibition the best solution, and said “it isn’t as though the economic world didn’t function quite well without it, and it isn’t as though what has happened has been so wonderfully desirable that we should logically want more of it”

-Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan - after being one of their biggest cheerleaders - now says CDS are dangerous

-Former SEC chairman Christopher Cox said "The virtually unregulated over-the-counter market in credit-default swaps has played a significant role in the credit crisis''

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/09/credit-default-swaps-love-em-ban-em-or.html

---

Funny how many Friedman disciples are shoveling dirt on Milton Friedman's grave.

[ozymandius]

12. Have a nice day, everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

The major news of the day centers around how everyone is waiting for economic reports. So with such thin news, I will take my leave. Work calls.

:hi:

[tclambert]

13. Midnight tonight is the deadline for Michigan's state budget.

Without a deal, the government shuts down. By law, Michigan must have a balanced budget, no matter how bad the economy is. That means Michigan cannot by law try to help a struggling economy with any sort of government stimulus program. Ever since Gov. Engler presented Gov. Granholm with a stinking pile of a budget mess, the Michigan state government has had to cut and cut and cut.

The Republicans in the state legislature keep insisting on no tax increases. They keep saying, "Just cut the waste." (Why didn't you do that when Engler was governor? What have you been cutting every year since Granholm took over?)

When pressed for actual details, they always propose cuts to education, road repair, police, and prisons. Then they turn around and say we need to improve all those same areas.

Should be interesting.

[Po_d Mainiac]

14. State budget cuts are always made to

Those services that are most visible. And those that can least afford it, take the biggest hits. :grr:

[DemReadingDU]

20. Ohio's budget deadline was a few months ago

Actually, I think all states must have a balanced budget. Anyway, for Ohio, they could not agree what to cut, so the deadline was extended 1 week. I think it may have even been extended an additional week to refine the cuts that had to be made. I don't know anyone who ended up pleased.

[Demeter]

22. It's Going to Frost, Too

All we need is the Madrid Fault to go off and we'll have a Trifecta.

[DemReadingDU]

23. Frost predicted in SW Ohio too

Must remember to cover-up little green tomatoes

[InkAddict]

35. Fry those babies n/t

[Ghost Dog]

27. There's a theory that the effects of sunspots on Earth's magnetosphere

can trigger large earthquakes. After a quiet period, there has been sunspot activity in recent days, perhaps now affecting the Pacific "rim of fire".

Yes, I'm cheerful today. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

15. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.535 Change -0.549 (-0.71%)

US Dollar Follows Momentum as Risk Appetite Eases and Data Comes out Mixed

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Follows_Momentum_as_1254270028813.html

The US dollar appreciated through Tuesday’s session; but the headway the world’s most liquid currency made was limited. On a trade-weighted basis, the currency produced a second consecutive, daily advance that has led to its highest close in three weeks. The same reversal has developed for most of the majors. EURUSD has carved the inverse of what the index has produced, showing a slow reversal pattern. In most cases for the majors, we saw the slow extension of a measured greenback advance; but there were a couple of standouts. Overriding the dollar’s tepid strength, GBPUSD would actually rally on the day for its first positive close in five sessions. Another noteworthy pair was USDJPY. Though this risk-confused pair was falling in line with the rest of the majors, its fundamental drivers are far more complicated than the rest.

As for the fuel supplying the dollar’s lift, there were only a few economic indicators worth mention. The first release to cross the wires was the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July. For market impact, this release has a significant lag to other sales and inflation reports for the housing sector; but it is nonetheless valuable as a confirmation tool. Through the severe recession and financial crisis of the past two years, Americans suffered the most acute drop in their wealth on record. The slow rebound in home values and the stock market marks the first step towards rebuilding their personal wealth. For this indicator’s part, the 1.2 percent rise in home prices from June represented the biggest monthly increase in four years. At the same time, the 13.3 percent contraction through the year was the smallest in 17 months. Ultimately, it is the trend that has developed behind this series that brightens the economic outlook for the dollar and bolsters its strength. The same consideration for longer-term development should be applied to the other notable release for the day: the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report. Though the sentiment gauge for September unexpectedly fell back to 53.1 (against expectations of a hearty advance to 57), optimism has shown a consistent and meaningful recovery from its lows earlier this year. For contrast, today’s confidence gauge directly contrasts the jump in University of Michigan figures for the same period, which reported highs not seen since January of 2008. Some consider the Conference Board’s report more sensitive to employment; but what is certain is that there is far more detail to be had from this release. Both present situation and expectations faltered; but it was the disappointing outlook for employment, wages, business activity and spending that presents real concern. At this point though, this offers the same sense that growth forecasts have shaped – a recovery is underway; but it will be measured.

Aside from economic data, a couple Fed Presidents would also weigh in with commentary that supports a strong dollar. Early in the US session, Dallas President Fisher suggested that given the lag between policy implementation and a response from the economy during the recession, the central bank should start removing stimulus as soon as it is clear that the recovery has gained “traction.” Philadelphia head Plosser was equally as hawkish. Looking beyond the recovery through the second half, the central banker forecasted 3 percent growth through 2010 and 2.7 percent expansion the following year. For rate watchers, the real value his warning that the Fed may have to curb inflation “aggressively” in the future.

...more...

Australian Dollar Surges to Fresh 2009 High

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Australian_Dollar_Surges_to_Fresh_1254309401890.html

The key economic release in the overnight session came from the Eurozone with Germany unemployment data pleasantly surprising and coming in much better than expected. The Euro had been trading down by 1.4600 ahead of the release and took some time to get going immediately following, but eventually started to climb back towards 1.4700 heading into the US open. Sterling was also well bid on the session with upbeat comments from UK PM Brown, and BoE Miles, along with some better data in the form of the Gfk consumer confidence and index of services, helping to revive the beaten down pound. Elsewhere, Eur/Chf was very well offered, with the Franc finding bids on the much firmer than forecast KOF. The commodity currencies were certainly not to be ignored, with all three taking the top performing major currency spots on the day. Aussie has been the strongest on the back of the better than expected data overnight, with the single currency standing out as the only major currency to rally to fresh 2009 highs on Wednesday. The rally in the commodity currencies has also been aided by indication of a higher US equity open along with stronger commodities. In Japan, comments from FinMin Fuji that there are no plans to raise the Yen at G7 were sourced as a reason for some additional Yen strength. Looking ahead, ADP employment is due at 12:15GMT, immediately followed by US (-1.2% expected) and Canada (0.5% expected) GDP. Chicago PMI (52 expected) comes out later at 13:45GMT. On the official circuit, Fed Lockhart is slated to speak at 14:30GMT, while Fed Kohn is up at 16:30GMT.



...more...

[Festivito]

18. Debt: 09/28/2009 11,771,450,693,745.00 (UP 752,536,670.80) (Mon)

()

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,459,662,870,571.13 + 4,311,787,823,173.87
DOWN 773,265,151.59 + UP 1,525,801,822.39

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,570,461 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,272.37.
A family of three owes $114,817.11. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 2,634,587,605.70.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,756,391,737.14.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,699,733,939.16.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 172 reports in 251 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 6.62B$ per report, 4.56B$/day so far.
There were 247 reports in 363 days of FY2009 averaging 7.07B$ per report, 4.81B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,210 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 17.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/28/2009 11,771,450,693,745.00 BHO (UP 1,144,573,644,831.92 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B, breakout on next two lines:
01-WJC 0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB 0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 1,746,725,796,832.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O, breakout on next two lines:
09GWB 0,602,152,152,000.59 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 34% of FY-Debt
09-BHO 1,144,573,644,831.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 66% of FY-Debt
FY2010 0,000,000,000,000.00 ------------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/08/2009 -000,191,031,319.46 --- Tue
09/09/2009 +000,137,837,081.44 ------------********
09/10/2009 +012,326,876,265.82 ------------**********
09/11/2009 +000,017,033,887.43 ------------*******
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********
09/17/2009 -017,941,949,432.55 -
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon
09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 -----
09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 ---
09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 -
09/25/2009 -000,256,514,563.16 ---
09/28/2009 -000,773,265,151.59 --- Mon

-16,398,623,795.91 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4082114&mesg_id=4082271

[Festivito]

33. Debt: 09/29/2009 11,776,112,848,656.17 (UP 4,662,154,911.17) (Tue)

(Thursday, Nov 1st, about 3pm, will come the year end report for FY2009.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,460,136,852,988.81 + 4,315,975,995,667.36
UP 473,982,417.68 + UP 4,188,172,493.49

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,579,101 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,286.45.
A family of three owes $114,859.36. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 2,731,138,429.77.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,911,796,900.84.
The average for the last 32 days would be 1,792,309,594.54.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 173 reports in 252 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 6.60B$ per report, 4.56B$/day so far.
There were 248 reports in 364 days of FY2009 averaging 7.06B$ per report, 4.81B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,209 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 17.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/29/2009 11,776,112,848,656.17 BHO (UP 1,149,235,799,743.09 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B, breakout on next two lines:
01-WJC 0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB 0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 1,751,387,951,743.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O, breakout on next two lines:
09GWB 0,602,152,152,000.59 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 34% of FY-Debt
09-BHO 1,149,235,799,743.09 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 66% of FY-Debt
FY2010 0,000,000,000,000.00 ------------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/09/2009 +000,137,837,081.44 ------------********
09/10/2009 +012,326,876,265.82 ------------**********
09/11/2009 +000,017,033,887.43 ------------*******
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********
09/17/2009 -017,941,949,432.55 -
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon
09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 -----
09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 ---
09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 -
09/25/2009 -000,256,514,563.16 ---
09/28/2009 -000,773,265,151.59 --- Mon
09/29/2009 +000,473,982,417.68 ------------********

-15,733,610,058.77 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4083597&mesg_id=4083660

[Ghost Dog]

25. Eurozone prices falling further

Prices in the eurozone fell in September at a faster rate than they had in August.

The inflation rate fell to -0.3% in the year to September, from -0.2% in the year to August, according to Eurostat.

It is the fourth consecutive month that the rate of inflation has been negative in the bloc of 16 European nations that use the euro as their currency.

Oil prices have fallen over the past month as concerns have grown about the state of the US economy.

'Temporary relapse'

Deflation is considered damaging to an economy because consumers tend to delay making major purchases until prices fall further. Without consumer spending to stimulate growth, economic output falls.

The European Central Bank's target rate for inflation is just below 2%.

Prices had fallen 0.7% in July and 0.1% in June in the first spell of deflation since euro notes and coins were introduced in 2002.

"This is probably a temporary relapse, mainly related to food and energy price base effects," said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING.

"Headline inflation will likely turn positive again in November and edge up further going into 2010, as the earlier sharp drop in oil and food prices increasingly drops out of the calculation."

/... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8282321.stm

-0.7% in September in Spain - 7th month of price deflation here.

[AnneD]

26. Our billion didn't get us very much...

If I were to calculate the returns of your money market account for the past year, it probably looks something like this: Invested capital times interest equals doodley-squat.

In fact, the equation's a little bleaker than that: capital times interest equals doodley-squat minus government insurance fees.

Earlier this month, the Treasury Department announced an end to the Guarantee Program for Money Market Funds. The program was set up last year after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers led the country's oldest money market fund to “break the buck,” meaning its asset value fell below a dollar a share.

Money market funds hold high-quality liquid debt that's designed to be the equivalent of cash while maintaining a value of at least a dollar a share. The dollar-a-share threshold was key to fund industry's illusion that money market funds were as safe as a savings account, even though they buy commercial paper and other short-term debt instruments.

Many fund companies even refer to the accounts as “cash reserves.” For most of us, the distinction between cash and highly liquid investments didn't matter all that much until late last year.

More.....

www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/steffy/6638217.html

My man Steffy is at it again... I am reminded of the financial advice from Will Rogers, "The quickest was to double your money is fold it and put it in your pocket."

[dixiegrrrrl]

30. Just to thank you for doing this topic on such a regular basis, Ozy.

:hi:

[DemReadingDU]

32. GM to shut down Saturn after Penske walks away

9/30/09 GM to shut down Saturn after Penske terminates talks with GM on uncertain future assembly

General Motors Co. says it's shutting down the Saturn brand after an agreement with Penske Automotive Group Inc. to acquire the unit fell apart.

Penske, citing concerns about whether GM could continue to supply vehicles after a manufacturing contract with the automaker ran out, ended talks with GM Wednesday to acquire the brand.

GM CEO Fritz Henderson said in statement that Saturn and its dealership network will be phased out.

In a statement, the Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based auto retailer says an agreement with another manufacturer to continue producing Saturn vehicles after GM stopped making them fell through, leading Penske to terminate talks with GM.

In June, Penske agreed to take over the Saturn brand and related dealerships. GM agreed to produce the vehicle for a limited period of time.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GM-to-shut-down-Saturn-after-apf-1669090380.html?x=0


Another very sad day for automotive
:(

[DemReadingDU]

34. BofA CEO Lewis to step down by year's end

9/30/09 BofA CEO Lewis to step down by year's end

Beleaguered Bank of America Corp said Chief Executive Ken Lewis will retire by year's end and his successor is yet to be determined, the bank announced late Wednesday.

The Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America's board will continue evaluating potential successors, a company announcement said.

A Bank of America spokesman was not immediately available for comment.

Lewis, 62, ran Bank of America for nearly a decade, succeeding his mentor Hugh McColl in 2001. After being named to the top spot, he proceeded to build one of the nation's largest financial services companies through aggressive acquisitions.

But in the last year, Lewis was the subject of rising political criticism, along with federal and state investigations into the bank's acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co in late 2008 and early 2009.

He had previously announced hopes of retiring after the bank repaid $45 billion in government assistance, or when he hit the company's mandatory retirement age of 65.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN3023655920090930


Another to spend more time with family?