STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 28

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 28, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 27, 2010

Dow... 10,258.99 +284.54 (+2.77%)
Nasdaq... 2,277.68 +81.80 (+3.59%)
S&P 500... 1,103.06 +35.11 (+3.18%)
Gold future... 1,216 +1.90 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.33 -0.03 (-0.92%)
30-Year Bond 4.24 -0.02 (-0.40%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Personal Income Apr
Briefing.com 0.4%
Consensus 0.4%
Prior 0.3%

08:30 Personal Spending Apr
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus 0.3%
Prior 0.6%

08:30 PCE Prices - Core Apr
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.1%

09:45 Chicago PMI May
Briefing.com 60.0
Consensus 60.0
Prior 63.8

09:55 U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment May
Briefing.com 73.8
Consensus 73.2
Prior 73.3

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rebounds as stocks surge, euro gains ground

BANGKOK – Oil prices rose to near $75 a barrel Friday in Asia as investors set aside worries about the European debt crisis and focused on rising stock markets and improving economic data.

Benchmark crude for July delivery was up 18 cents at $74.73 a barrel at mid-afternoon Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract on Thursday leapt $3.04 to settle at $74.55.

Gains in U.S. and Asian stocks also boosted oil prices as did encouraging economic news. The government said Thursday that the U.S. economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate in the first quarter, albeit slower than initially thought. That came a day after strong reports on factory orders, housing and consumer confidence.

In other Nymex trading in June contracts, heating oil fell 0.2 cent to $1.997 a gallon and gasoline was down 0.14 cent at $2.0375 a gallon. Natural gas was up 3.8 cents at $4.332 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

7. Bubble Bubble, Toil and Trouble

Markets burn and spot oil double!

[bread_and_roses]

58. See - Cooking! And how could I have forgotten..."cooking the books?!"

Seriously - I'm not married to the idea - I was just having fun yesterday combining all those categories - and also hoping to throw a wrench in whatever spybot I've picked up that makes sure that when I visit DU ads appear that reflect my browsing over that day. It really un-nerves me, and has only recently started happening regularly. Big Bro indeed.

[Demeter]

68. We've Got a Gas War On--Guess Who Is Cheapest!

When I went down gasoline alley at 10 am, BP was the cheapest at $2.599.

When I retraced my path at 11, Valero had undercut them by a penny, from 2.60 to 2.58. Valero is (I think) Venezuelan retail outlet.

[ozymandius]

3. US economy weaker than estimated in first quarter

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The fragile US recovery from recession was weaker than estimated in the first quarter, official data showed, suggesting tougher challenges from the European debt crisis.

The Commerce Department said gross domestic product in the first quarter increased at a 3.0 percent annual pace from the fourth quarter of 2009, lowering its original estimate of 3.2 percent.

The downward revision for the world's largest economy surprised most analysts, who predicted GDP -- a broad measure of the country's goods and services output -- expanded 3.3 percent.

The Commerce Department said it had shaved 0.2 percentage points from its first estimate on April 30 largely because of higher imports and lower consumer spending.

It was the third consecutive quarter of expansion since mid-2009, when the US economy ended a full year of contraction in a recovery driven by unprecedented government and Federal Reserve support measures.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100528/ts_alt_afp/useconomygrowth

[ozymandius]

4. Slow-motion recovery keeps unemployment high

WASHINGTON – High unemployment isn't going away.

The slow pace of economic growth shows the recovery is too weak to generate enough jobs for 15.3 million unemployed people. Layoffs are contributing to the problem. That's evident from an elevated number of weekly claims for jobless aid.

For many Americans, it doesn't feel much like a recovery.

The unemployed face fierce competition for job openings. Those with jobs are watching their paychecks shrink. A growing number of people are at risk of falling into foreclosure. And only people with the most stellar credit are likely to get a new loan.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said the number of newly laid off workers filings claims for unemployment benefits fell to 460,000 last week. But the latest level of claims is actually higher than it was at the start of the year.

By this point in the recovery, economists had hoped claims would be in the 400,000 to 425,000 range. That would signal more robust job growth was on the way.
The economy did add a net 290,000 jobs in April, the most in four years. But much stronger job growth is needed to drive down the 9.9 percent unemployment rate.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100527/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

[fasttense]

50. Some other numbers on unemployment for you number crunchers.

This was posted on DU earlier but it's worth repeating. It has some charts and graphs that are very interesting.

Reindexing The Unemployment Rate By America's Population Growth Yields Some Ugly Results
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/16/2010 18:19 -0500

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics Demographics Real Unemployment Rate Recession Reindexing Unemployment

"One of the more peculiar phenomena in the current Great Recession has been the persistent drop in the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, after averaging around 66.5% for the past 20 years, in the past 18 months it has plunged, and despite a marginal improvement over the past several months, is still at 65.2%. This is counterintuitive when one analyzes the data side by side with the overall civilian population in the United States. An indexed chart, using the January 2000 level as a baseline demonstrates that while the US population has been climbing at a fairly steady arithmetic growth rate, the civilian labor force, which should track the changes in the actual population, has been behaving in an erratic pattern, having more to do with BLS data interpretation and the nuances of the business cycle than demographics.

Which is why when reindexing data for nominal changes in the US rate of population growth, yields some troubling variations from the just disclosed 9.9% unemployment rate. Basing the adjustment to the unemployment rate on nothing but a statistical regression to the growth of America over the past ten years, would yield an unemployment rate of 12.7%. More troubling is that the underemployment rate would be a number far higher than the 17.1% disclosed for April. According to our calculations, a reading closer to 22% would be more appropriate to represent the level of real joblessness in the US. A number, which is higher than the corresponding metric in austerity-ridden Spain."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/reindexing-unemployment-population-growth-yields-some-ugly-results

[Demeter]

8. Where's Tansy With Her Stamp?

Now would be a good time...

[Tansy_Gold]

52. Heeeeeeeeere's Tansy!

[ozymandius]

5. Geithner: US, Europe broadly agree on reform

BERLIN – The United States and Europe broadly agree on the need for reform of the financial system, but global cooperation is needed, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Thursday. He also said countries are working together to balance cutting back deficits with supporting economic growth.

Geithner met German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble during a two-day visit to Europe that also took him to Britain and to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.

The trip comes amid ongoing market volatility following European nations' agreement this month on a euro750 billion (nearly $1 trillion) loan backstop for governments in danger of defaulting on debt — coupled with efforts to cut budget deficits.

Last week, European Union governments overrode British objections and U.S. worries to tighten rules for hedge funds, and Germany unilaterally announced curbs on traders of government debt and bank stocks — a move that rattled markets.

Geithner accentuated areas of trans-Atlantic agreement but stressed the U.S. commitment to a "a cooperative global approach" leading up to next month's summit of the Group of 20, which combines rich countries with emerging nations such as China and India.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100527/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_europe_geithner

[ozymandius]

6. Asian Stocks Rise a Third Day, Following U.S. Rally

European stocks rose for a third day, extending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s weekly gain, after U.S. shares had the biggest rally in almost three weeks. Asian equities advanced, while U.S. index futures fluctuated.

The Stoxx 600 rose 0.5 percent to 245.95 at 9:12 a.m. in London. The measure has rallied 5.9 percent over the past three days after plunging to an eight-month low on May 25, bringing this week’s advance to 3.7 percent.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rallied 1.4 percent today, a third day of gains. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent after the measure surged 3.3 percent yesterday as China’s commitment to investing in Europe allayed concern the debt crisis will worsen.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-28/european-stock-index-futures-advance-rio-tinto-prudential-man-may-movee.html

[Demeter]

9. Prudential, AIG in talks about AIA sale

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100528/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_britain_prudential_aia

Prudential PLC said Friday it is talking with U.S. insurer AIG about the terms for the proposed sale of AIG's Asian unit, AIA, a deal which faces strong resistance from Prudential shareholders.

Some shareholders are organizing opposition to the $35.5 billion price agreed for AIA, and needs to line up support from holders of 75 percent of shares by June 7...

THE JEWEL IN AIG'S CROWN IS TURNING OUT TO BE SO MUCH PASTE...



A number of analysts believe Prudential agreed too high a price for AIA.

Opponents of the deal have formed a Prudential Action Group, which is seeking to muster support for a vote of no confidence in the Pru's chief executive, Tidjane Thiam. The Action Group claims that at least 15 percent of shareholders intend to vote against the deal.

Prudential has announced a rights issue — 11 new shares at 104 pence each for every two existing shares — to raise $20.9 billion to help finance the deal. The company also plans $5.4 billion in hybrid debt financing.

On Tuesday, Prudential shares debuted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as the company sought to draw Asian investor support for its fundraising.

American International Group Inc., which received more than $180 billion in aid from the U.S. government during the financial crisis, hoped to raise a total $51 billion from the Prudential deal and the sale of its American Life Insurance Co. division to MetLife Inc.

"The key question remains how much the price needs to be reduced by to convince the skeptics to vote yes," said Eamonn Flanagan, analyst at Shore Capital.

"Our view would be that a $30 billion revised price would nudge many over the line, although the transaction and integration risks are likely to remain insurmountable for many others."

The other big question, he added, was whether AIG would accept such a big cut in price.

Before agreeing to sell to Prudential, AIG had planned to float AIA on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

"Whilst we have no feel for AIG's position we suspect that the IPO valuation of AIA was below $30 billion," said Barrie Cornes, analyst at Panmure Gordon.

"Given that the markets have moved south and IPOs have been pulled we suspect that AIG may well look pragmatically on the renegotiation of the price Pru is being asked to pay.

"The U.S. government — largest shareholder in AIG — may well view a price of circa $30 billion as a bird in the hand," Cornes said.

If the AIA deal falls through, Prudential will owe AIG a termination fee of $230.6 million.

[Demeter]

10. Dear Democrat:

Awhile back, you signed our petition to save our democracy. Our plan was to pass legislation to counteract the corporate buy-out of our democracy that was legalized in the Citizens United decision.

It has taken time, but that legislation is happening.

The DISCLOSE Act is moving through Congress. Several of the principles contained in our Save Democracy legislation are included. I pushed our ideas to the Leadership, and made sure to mention the strength of support we received from the 100,000 of you that signed our petition.

Here are a few highlights from the bill:

1) It prevents corporations who received bailouts from spending money to influence elections, and toughens laws that ban government contractors from making political contributions.

2) It prevents foreign corporate influence over our elections.

3) And it strengthens reporting requirements for political expenditures and contributions.

The DISCLOSE Act is a good start, but, it should be even stronger. That's why I'm proposing amendments that:

1) Ban corporations who receive money from the Federal Reserve from spending that money on politics.

2) Ban corporations who hire lobbyists from spending money in politics.

Make sure there's a vote on these amendments. Email Speaker Pelosi's office at [e-mail] and ask her to bring these Grayson Save Our Democracy amendments to a vote!

Courage,

Alan Grayson

[ozymandius]

12. A most excellent call to action -

That arrived in my mailbox, too, yesterday.

Good morning Demeter and all. :donut: :donut: :donut:

That fiery thread I started yesterday morning is still going, up to 24 recs at last view. I think the 'ignore' feature at DU is getting quite a workout because of it.

[Demeter]

14. Good Morning To You, Too, Ozy

Did you like to stir up wasps' nests as a boy?

The total lack of critical thinking, the gullibility of some of the posters on this site, makes Me fear for the whole concept of democracy.

[ozymandius]

17. Sheeple on the left are just as annoying as those on the right.

I never threw rocks at wasps' nests as a boy but I did eye them suspiciously if I had to be around them. Dr. Phool's dare to see what would happen was irresistible. It surprised the hell out of me that the hero worship in the area of the DU forums is as rabid as I had heard.

[Demeter]

20. I Think It's Been Getting Worse

A sign that Obama is on really shaky ground, IMO.

[girl gone mad]

25. I have a big long ignore list now..

so I guess I am sheltered from the worst of it.

It's disturbing, really. I've never been one who could suspend all logic and critical thought in the name of blind admiration, love or hate. Seems like it would be a pretty un-fulfilling way to live life. Taken to the extremes this hero worship/villain hate has been over the last decade, it's literally destroying the country.

[ozymandius]

27. You make wonderful comments.

Beyond not having time for hero worship - I will not subordinate my own intellect and pollute my dignity with it either. Admiration is one thing. Hero worship is akin to willful ignorance.

[Demeter]

30. Especially in the Complete Absence of ANY Heroic Actions!

That's the part that ticks me off the most.

Obama hasn't done anything, except win an election, and that mostly by default, because he was the least-known, and therefore least-damaged candidate.

His actions and staff appointments since then have been poorly-advised, at best, and downright stupid for the most part.

[TalkingDog]

60. You guys don't get it.

If somebody thinks for me, I don't have to think for myself. If something goes wrong, I can't be guilty or responsible or the bad guy or the outcast. I just want to be loved? IS THAT SO WRONG???


I blame pedagogy (an overarching version, so no offense teachers, I get that your hands are tied) If we teach kids to think for themselves, they will. If we don't encourage an authority dependent us vs them mentality, then we can't sell shoes that cost 500 dollars to kids who don't have enough to eat. If we co-opt all the rebels and profit by selling a hive rebelliousness; we can create "punk rockers" who apply the outer coating, but whose manners would put Pat Boone admirers at ease.

The Spousal Unit (who was in a punk band in his wayward youth) explained that the Punk Movement was a reaction to Thatcher's complete decimation structures that supported the lower and working classes. The young adults, whose parents, siblings and friend suffered under Thatcher reacted by acting out. They were useless burdens in a hopeless world. The result was an angry nihilism. Nihilism being the key word. Destructive nihilism being the result. No one was safe, nothing was sacred. Yet today the uniform of punk manifests itself thusly:




BTW, I love this picture. But a punk would have punched the kid and laughed while he cried. Given that Corporations have packaged rebellion as just another product; how do you move against your Owners when your options to act and react are co-opted?

[Dr.Phool]

64. Reminds me of a story about when the Berlin Wall came down.

They were interviewing an East German bus driver. He was sad to see communism die. He said, "Under communism, they did all of my thinking for me. Now I have to do it myself. I don't like that idea".

[Dr.Phool]

28. They should change the name of the forum to GD-Cult.

I have a short ignore list, with the most serious thread hijackers and disruptors on it. Not many of them showed up. But, the ones I keep around for sheer entertainment value showed up in force.

It's amazing how the policies of George W. Bush, which were severely denounced around here are now considered sacred, by the same people, because Obama is continuing them.

[DemReadingDU]

47. yeh, it's like we have 1 party

run by the lobbyists, bankers and corporations.
They install as president the person they think can best advance their agenda.

[Tansy_Gold]

51. YOU'RE NOT ALLOWED TO USE THAT WORD!!!

At least not around THEM.

Like you, I have a fairly short ignore list, and I think most of those on it are no longer with us anyway. It's probably time for me to check them against the membership list.

But I'm constitutionally unable to refrain from responding to the ones who seem to be mainlining Kool-Aid, so I stay away from them as much as I can. Indeed, they have so completely turned off their critical thinking skills as to be the equivalent of dittoheads. If it comes from the mouth of the man, it must be gospel. EEEEIUW!!!


TG, who needs to address the paying work. . . . .

[Warpy]

66. That just means that a lot of people were thinking like I did

in that Obama was actually rather conservative and we just hoped he wouldn't make the whole mess even worse, something we knew Gidget and The Geezer would have.

He hasn't made it worse and has actually tried to improve small parts of it, although he's been thwarted by an even more conservative Congress.

That's why we are loath to criticize, we know the alternative would have been much worse.

Still, it's been disheartening to see the glacial pace of change that has happened and the lack of progress on so many other vitally necessary fronts, like the re establishment of habeas corpus.

If past patterns are repeating themselves, the Republicans will fade away and it will be the progressives who split off to form the next opposition party, only to be taken over by the wealthy when they've achieved their laundry list of projects and sunk back into apathy.

[Dr.Phool]

24. What kind of trouble can we start for the week-end?

[ozymandius]

26. Maybe something from Zero Hedge?

There's plenty of edgy commentary, with data, at that website.

[Dr.Phool]

31. I thought about maybe some Denninger.

But, he's getting a bit too tea-baggy lately.

Speaking of cults, my wife works for the agency that handles foster care and adoptions down here. They got a few boxes of "donations" delivered the other day from the Church of Scientology. Cases of books and DVD's. She brought me home new copies of each just for laughs. So, I may get eaten alive by Thetans or some critter this week-end.

That's if I manage to finish "A hitchhikers Guide to The Galaxy" this week-end.

[TalkingDog]

67. Spoiler alert (saving you hundreds of thousands of dollars)

god Xanax or whatever his name is, pilots a B-52 to earth and drops a nukular bomb on all the frozen souls freeing them to become guilty consciouses and chemical imbalances...


Or something along those lines.

[Demeter]

29. It's a Holiday, for Pete's Sake!

and I for one need a break.

It's amazing how much tension I've released with the removal of the bane of existence here at the condo association. But the outrage, as detailed reports of abuse of power come to light, is still rising.

The financial committee will be doing an internal audit, to find and document these, and to recommend appropriate actions, including prosecution, if advised.

Board meetings are a lot less crazy-making, too.

[ozymandius]

34. British comedy?

Mr. Bean, Monty Python, the Goon Squad, Black Adder? Others?

[Demeter]

38. Not my strong suit--but with help, it could be done

Are you going to be around?

I'll be mostly morning-posting. I intend to celebrate this one.

[ozymandius]

40. I will be around some.

Friday evening - yes.

Saturday - not much at all.

Sunday - morning and late evening.

Monday - morning, late afternoon and evening.

[tclambert]

43. It's hard to quote Mr. Bean.

[ozymandius]

48. That's funny in itself, tclambert.

Video clips may be all we have to offer for dear Mr. Bean.

[Po_d Mainiac]

65. He says "Teddy" n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

54. Fawlty Towers n/t

[Dr.Phool]

57. Benny Hill

[AnneD]

63. Ah....Benny Hill.....

you can never have too many chase scenes involving scantly clad buxom women, bobbies, and vicars.

I am hard core, Monty Python but I remember 2 English Comedians that did this show-at the drop of the hat and at the drop of another hat that was so funny. Wish I knew their names. Had Mom and I in stitches. Most English humour is either bawdy to the point of vaudeville or as dry as dry ice. Hard to find a good middle ground. I found that German humour was actually closer to humour in the US. French was more slapstick. You would be surprised at the number of cultures that are void of humour-or at least humour that I could detect.

[Demeter]

69. I Always Like Wayne and Schuster, Out of Canada

My name is Captain Tuna, for I'm Chicken of the Sea...

[Ghost Dog]

84. Yeah. English humour is almost on a level with Jewish humor, is it not.

Or is it, in fact, superior?

(And, let's not mention the Irish).

:wrysmile: Sorry. Feeling a bit dry, here. Hah hah. That will be: in the morning, when I still have more mountain-road-miles kilometers to drive.

(Mumbles: talking to myself, again). :silly:

[girl gone mad]

42. This one would go over like a lead balloon..

The American Century Is So Over
Obama’s Rudderless Foreign Policy Underscores America’s Waning Power
By Dilip Hiro

Irrespective of their politics, flawed leaders share a common trait. They generally remain remarkably oblivious to the harm they do to the nation they lead. George W. Bush is a salient recent example, as is former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. When it comes to foreign policy, we are now witnessing a similar phenomenon at the Obama White House.

Here is the Obama pattern: Choose a foreign leader to pressure. Threaten him with dire consequences if he does not bend to Washington’s will. When he refuses to submit and instead responds vigorously, back off quickly and overcompensate for failure by switching into a placatory mode.

In his first year-plus in office, Barack Obama has provided us with enough examples to summarize his leadership style. The American president fails to objectively evaluate the strength of the cards that a targeted leader holds and his resolve to play them.

Obama’s propensity to retreat at the first sign of resistance shows that he lacks both guts and the strong convictions that are essential elements distinguishing statesmen from politicians. By pursuing a rudderless course in his foreign policy, by flip-flopping in his approach to other leaders, he is also inadvertently furnishing hard evidence to those who argue that American power is on the decline -- and that the downward slide of the globe’s former “sole superpower” is irreversible.

http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175254/tomgram%3A_dilip_hiro%2C_obama%27s_flip-flop_leadership_style/

[ozymandius]

44. Oh my.

I can hear the righteous indignation chorus warming up at the mere suggestion...

[Dr.Phool]

46. Righteous indignation?

Try nukular meltdown!

I'm headed to the dog park. Be back in about an hour.

[Demeter]

45. That's a Good One!

Especially when issues of the "morality" of the US pressuring anybody come up.

[Tansy_Gold]

61. Oh, this one would be fun!

But I'm not actually, you know, encouraging anyone to, ahem, cause trouble. Oh no, not I! NE-ver!

[Loge23]

73. I'm "genuinely sorry" that this is so true

The marching orders for today are "to feel genuinely sorry" for Obama (see Greatest Page).
I'm feeling "genuinely sorry" that I believed that he was a leader.
But, hey, throw it out there - it'll give the base something to fight for!

"Here is the Obama pattern: Choose a foreign leader to pressure. Threaten him with dire consequences if he does not bend to Washington’s will. When he refuses to submit and instead responds vigorously, back off quickly and overcompensate for failure by switching into a placatory mode."

and btw, that's apparently the Obama pattern with domestic opponents as well.

[Tansy_Gold]

77. And domestic enemies. Notice how "in charge" of the oil situation

he is.

Oh, he's not? BP is still calling the shots? Because the US government has no oil drilling experts? Well, that makes perfect sense. Silly me to think otherwise.





:sarcasm: even though it's probably not needed here. . . . . .



TG

[ozymandius]

11. U.K. Stocks Advance for Third Day; Benchmark FTSE 100 Index Increases 0.3%

U.K. stocks advanced for a third day, led by gains in mining companies and tour operators, as analysts recommended the shares.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index gained 21.21, or 0.4 percent, to 5,216.38 as of 9:30 a.m. in London, extending yesterday’s 3.1 percent surge and heading for a 3.1 percent weekly gain. The FTSE All-Share Index added 0.5 percent while Ireland’s ISEQ Overall Index was little changed at 2,991.61.

The FTSE 100 is heading for a monthly decline of 6.4 percent, the biggest since February 2009, on concern a sovereign-debt crisis in Europe is spreading, infecting global credit markets and hurting economic growth. The decline has trimmed the valuation of the index to about 12 times the reported profits of its companies, the lowest level since 2008, according to Bloomberg data.

Global economic growth, low interest rates, a “more robust” financial system and oil below $70 a barrel, will help increase the index to 5,800 by the year end, according to Morgan Stanley, which raised its forecast from a previous 5,000.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-28/u-k-stocks-advance-for-third-day-benchmark-ftse-100-index-increases-0-3-.html

---

Good luck keeping that balance: Oil prices go up as markets rise and the FTSE is forecast to rise as long as oil prices remain below $70/bbl.

[Demeter]

13. SEC proposes central database for all trading data

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/26/AR2010052604185.html

As financial markets have rapidly grown in size and complexity, regulators have faced an increasingly difficult task of investigating allegations of fraud and understanding the root causes of anomalous events such as the "flash crash" of May 6.

The Securities and Exchange Commission took a step Wednesday toward making that job a bit easier by proposing to unify the collection of trading data across all stock and options markets.

The many exchanges and self-regulatory organizations that Wall Street has set up to monitor financial activity have different standards for keeping track of trades, which occur at lightning speed on electronic hubs located around the world.

As a result, SEC Chairman Mary L. Schapiro said, "stock market regulators tracking suspicious activity or reconstructing an unusual event must obtain and merge an immense volume of disparate data from a number of different markets and market participants."

Under the agency's proposed rule, the SEC, exchanges and self-regulatory organizations would set up a central database for consolidating all trading activity.

"The information would capture each step in the life of the order, from receipt or origination, through the modification, cancellation, routing and execution of an order. Most of the information would be required to be reported in real time, as the event -- including, receipt, routing and execution -- is occurring," Schapiro said. "This information is designed to allow regulators to more easily and quickly identify potentially manipulative activity occurring across markets and through multiple accounts at multiple broker-dealers."

[Demeter]

15. EU Undecided on Shorting Ban

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704717004575267893808987922.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

Austria's financial markets regulator said Wednesday it will pursue EU-wide restrictions on short-selling rather than following Germany's lead with a unilateral ban. "We consider regulatory action in this area to be sensible, but we think it's important to achieve a common European position," said Kurt Pribil, head of the Finanzmarktaufsicht, or FMA.

EU regulators have intensified their monitoring of the euro-zone financial markets in recent weeks due to the heightened market volatility, which has seen the price of government bonds issued by high-deficit euro-zone countries plummet on concerns about their ability to reduce borrowing levels, CESR said Tuesday.

The body, which advises the European Commission on supervisory issues, urged the EU's executive body to fast-track rules designed to force financial institutions to report details of their trading and the open positions they hold.

The commission had been expected to publish proposals in September for banks to clear over-the-counter derivatives trades through clearing houses and report them to data warehouses in a bid to reduce risks and increase openness in the market. It also plans to amend the EU's Markets in Financial Instruments Directive by the end of the year to introduce transaction and position reporting in some trades. These changes would then need to be approved by the European Parliament and European Council.

CESR is also working on ways to ensure regulators get better access to trading data, which will in future allow them to more easily monitor market developments and trace market abuse.

"We are urging more information to the supervisors on the transactions that are taking place ... and the positions of the different parties in the market," said Mr. Wymeersch.



http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64P2WW20100526

EU supervisors split over German derivatives ban

...Germany surprised its EU partners last week by announcing the ban last week in a bid to calm market volatility but traders say it had the opposite effect and helped to deepen uncertainty.

Britain, France, Spain, Sweden and Finland have signaled they won't follow suit...

Germany and Greece have blamed speculators for using CDS contracts, a type of insurance against default, to bet that government debt woes in euro zone countries would deteriorate.

"We want not only to see the transactions but also the positions of the different parties in the market so we can monitor the situation more clearly," said Wymeersch, who is also chief executive of Belgium's financial watchdog CBFA.

Barnier told a separate news conference in Brussels that Germany had every right to introduce its own trading curbs but they would be more effective if coordinated with EU partners.

He appeared to rule out bringing forward his derivatives proposals but said he would publish proposals on better supervisory coordination on short selling very shortly.

"I won't be improvising, that is my message today," Barnier said.

Currently, the bulk of the world's CDS transactions are reported to a repository or warehouse operated by the DTCC in the United States.

The DTCC is cooperative in providing information to EU supervisors but this may not be adequate.

"The DTCC data for CDS is not sufficiently detailed, not sufficiently granular for our analysis," Wymeersch said.

New York-based DTCC said although publicly available data is aggregated, it was providing detailed information on transactions to regulators across the world.

Some central bankers and policymakers want a repository on EU soil and the bloc's financial services chief, Michel Barnier, will signal his stance in a draft law to crackdown on the $615 trillion off-exchange traded derivatives in July.

"What we try and get across is that the greatest threat to managing systemic risk is if you have fragmentation of data," DTCC spokesman Stuart Goldstein said.

[Demeter]

33. US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner calls for European action as EU is divided over bank reforms

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7768874/US-Treasury-Secretary-Tim-Geithner-calls-for-European-action-as-EU-is-divided-over-bank-reforms.html

IF TIMMY WEREN'T IN THERE, MESSING WITH PEOPLE'S MINDS, I BET THERE WOULD BE A LOT LESS DIVISION...WHATEVER TIMMY OFFERS IS A LIE AND A CHEAT, PEOPLE OF EUROPE! IGNORE HIM!


...Europe was yesterday divided on how best to stop banks from needing further government bail-outs. Tensions rose as the European Commission proposed a bank levy, while France and Britain raised strong objections to the plan.

Chancellor George Osborne spoke out against the EU’s new proposals, saying they could create a “moral hazard” by encouraging banks to consider them as an insurance policy.

Mr Osborne’s comments came after a meeting with Mr Geithner at 11 Downing Street, where the US Treasury Secretary urged his European counterparts to put forward a “strong programme of reforms” with the “right elements”.

He added that now “markets want to see action”.

In a warning that implied America is impatient with the pace of European change, he said: “The big lesson of the US financial crisis is that you have to act quickly and with force.”

Mr Geithner, who went from London to meetings in Germany, argued for global reforms that should be agreed by the G20 meeting in Korea next month.

But it appears that Europe is deeply divided over the way banking reform should be conducted. Michel Barnier, Europe’s Internal Market Commissioner, yesterday unveiled a radical framework for a bank levy on assets, liabilities or profits to be introduced across the 27 member state.

Mr Barnier said: “I believe in the 'polluter pays’ principle. We need to build a system which ensures that the financial sector will pay the cost of banking crises in the future.”

The Commission stressed that the money would not be used for bailing out or rescuing banks but “only to ensure that a bank’s failure is managed in an orderly way and does not destabilise the financial system”.

The Government opposes the plan and intends to introduce a separate levy on UK banks – even if other countries do not follow suit – and could announce the tax in the emergency Budget on June 22. But it plans to use the funds raised to pay down Britain’s £156bn deficit.

Mr Barnier believes his banking proposals could be pushed through under the EU’s single-market rules, which in theory means they could be imposed on reluctant member states if a qualified majority supported the plan. British officials are seeking legal opinion.

[girl gone mad]

16. Someone unrecced SMW?

Seriously?

[ozymandius]

18. It happens.

Maybe someone is still pissed at the thread I started yesterday morning. Or it could have been a shaky mouse click.

[Tansy_Gold]

56. There are DUers who do NOT like this thread.

Other than the children who, I think, sit in the basement and unrec every new thread as it's posted, there are still some DUers who do not like the tone of this daily thread. They don't dare post here because they know they'll be roasted and toasted out of here, but unreccing is their form of revenge.

Most just avoid us, which is fine.



Okay, fellow diabolical denizens of the deep, I really must apply myself to the paid work if I want to have the luxury of a long week-end.


TG

[Demeter]

19. Bond Distress Highest Since ’09 as Sales Vanish

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atn4lTDhUcZo&pos=3

The percentage of corporate bonds considered in distress surged this week to the highest since 2009 as investors dumped debt of the neediest borrowers on concern Europe’s fiscal crisis will make it harder for them to refinance.

More than 17 percent of junk bonds yield at least 10 percentage points over Treasuries, up from 9.2 percent last month, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global High-Yield Index shows. The jump is the biggest since the distress ratio rose 11 percentage points in November 2008, two months after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed. Bonds of MGM Mirage and Freescale Semiconductor Inc. joined the list this month.

U.S. distressed bonds have lost 10 percent in May, according to the indexes, as credit markets seize up amid speculation Greece and other nations in Europe with rising budget deficits won’t be able to meet their debt payments. Junk bond sales plunged this month to the lowest level since March 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“It’s going to be really difficult for some of these companies to address their debt piles,” said Mark Dewar, a London-based senior managing director at FTI Consulting who advised lenders to Lehman Brothers after the U.S. bank filed for bankruptcy. “It becomes a downward spiral.” ...

[Demeter]

21. Sovereign investments less welcome in Asia than the West

http://www.asianinvestor.net/News/175955,sovereign-investments-less-welcome-in-asia-than-the-west.aspx?refresh=on

INTERESTING ARTICLE...NOT SURE HOW I FEEL ABOUT IT

[Demeter]

23. Banks starting to think local after crisis, BIS finds

http://www.risk.net/risk-magazine/news/1650435/banks-starting-local-crisis-bis

Banks around the world are slowly shifting to rely on local retail funding, says the Bank for International Settlements

The disappearance of liquidity during the financial crisis has led banks to reappraise their funding methods, and regulatory reform may push them further towards a more resilient decentralised model, according to a report due to be released tomorrow by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

As a result of the crisis, banks are shifting away from using the wholesale markets for funding, and towards a combination of retail and capital market funding, the BIS Committee on the Global Financial System found. This has also meant a heavier dependence on local funding rather than cross-border funding. At the same time, liquidity management is becoming much more centralised, as banks have become more aware of the dangers of a liquidity crisis (though this awareness could fade with time, the committee warned).

The shift so far has been "marginal", the report says, but regulatory measures could push banks further towards a model of local funding. The UK Financial Services Authority decided in October 2009 to require self-sufficiency for all institutions under its aegis, including local branches of foreign banks. If this approach were carried over to other jurisdictions, it would lead to a more resilient financial industry – although increased demand for retail deposits could also increase the cost of funds for individual banks.

However, this might not be a bad thing, the committee continued: "To the extent that low wholesale market funding costs prior to the crisis had led banks to underestimate risks from maturity and currency mismatches and facilitated the rapid build-up of exposures, higher funding costs could result in more conservative asset side policies by international banks."

The change in funding strategies would also mean lower volumes on the currency markets, as banking groups moved less funds between countries, the report predicted. The effects could be harmful for countries such as the Baltic states which are highly dependent on imported capital - and equally for countries whose depositors rely on being able to seek better yields abroad. But it warned that even a highly decentralised bank could still be a conduit for contagion: the reputational damage of allowing a local subsidiary to fail could lead international banks to step in, even if there were no strictly commercial reason to do so.

[ozymandius]

22. Goldman seeks settlement with SEC

Goldman Sachs is hoping to avoid the Securities and Exchange Commission’s charge of fraud by reaching a settlement on a lesser offence and agreeing to a fine of hundreds of millions of dollars, according to people familiar with the bank’s negotiating position.

Goldman, which has been accused of civil fraud over a complex mortgage-related security called Abacus, is trying to focus settlement talks with the SEC on the less serious charge of omitting or mis-stating material facts to investors.

Regulatory experts say that companies charged with fraud often seek a settlement on a lesser charge but it is unclear whether the SEC would agree to downgrade such a high-profile case.

A lesser charge would reduce Goldman’s risk of being sued by investors and help the bank avoid the reputational damage of having settled a fraud charge, according to people familiar with the situation.

People involved in the discussions say that, even if regulators agree to consider a lesser charge, Goldman would neither admit nor deny wrongdoing – a common practice among companies settling with the SEC.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3cfc666e-69e3-11df-a978-00144feab49a.html

---

Typical... as the article says.

[ozymandius]

32. So Damn Little Money

The financial reform legislation currently heading into a June Senate-House conference will, at best, do little to affect the incentives and beliefs at the heart of the largest banks on Wall Street. Serious attempts to strengthen the bill through amendment – such as Brown-Kaufman and Merkley-Levin – were either shot down on the floor of the Senate or, when their prospects seemed stronger, not allowed to come to a vote.

At one level, Robert Kaiser nailed this topic in his recent book, “So Damn Much Money: The Triumph of Lobbying and the Corrosion of American Government.” Elections have become more expensive, with most of the funding provided by special interests. You can argue about which is the chicken and which is the egg, but the basic facts are inescapable.

“In 1974, the average winning campaign for the Senate cost $437,000; by 2006, that number had grown to $7.92 million. The cost of winning House campaigns grew comparably: $56,500 in 1974, $1.3 million in 2006.”

Or look at the lifetime contributions by the financial sector to (some) senators who voted for and against the Brown-Kaufman amendment, which would have imposed a hard size cap and a hard leverage cap on the biggest banks – over $2 million per senator by this one partial count.

But wait. This is actually very little money considering what is at stake. For an individual large firm actively engaged in derivatives trading, the stakes could easily be in the billions of dollars. For the big banks as a whole, the amount they will be allowed to earn (and pay themselves) as a result of the failure of these financial reforms is – conservatively speaking – in the tens of billions of dollars.

http://baselinescenario.com/2010/05/27/so-damn-little-money/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BaselineScenario+%28The+Baseline+Scenario%29

---

I like the concept of televised conference committees and amendments posted on the web three days before the committee meeting. Other ideas listed here also sound quite substantive.

[Demeter]

35. Lehman Suit Seeks $5 Billion From JPMorgan

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/27/business/27lehman.html?ref=business



Lehman Brothers Holdings and a group of unsecured creditors sued JPMorgan Chase on Wednesday for more than $5 billion, accusing it of siphoning billions of dollars of assets and hastening Lehman’s bankruptcy.

In a lawsuit filed in United States Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan, the plaintiffs accused JPMorgan of extracting billions of dollars in collateral for loans just before Lehman’s Sept. 15, 2008, bankruptcy by threatening to otherwise deprive Lehman of clearing services crucial to its broker-dealer business.

“With this financial gun to Lehman’s head, JPMorgan was able to extract extraordinarily one-sided agreements from Lehman literally overnight,” the complaint said. “Those billions of dollars in collateral rightfully belong to the Lehman estate and its creditors.”

The suit seeks to recover $5 billion, representing collateral posted just before the bankruptcy, plus interest and other remedies.

A JPMorgan spokesman, Joe Evangelisti, called the lawsuit meritless. He pointed to a report by Lehman’s bankruptcy examiner, Anton R. Valukas.

“As the examiner’s report makes clear,” he said, “it was the ill-advised decisions of Lehman and its principals to take on perilous leverage, and to double down on subprime mortgages and overpriced commercial real estate, and not conduct by our firm, that led to Lehman’s demise.”

[Demeter]

36. Lehman Sues JPMorgan for Billions of Dollars in ‘Lost Value’

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aL1jUh.hs49M

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. sued JPMorgan Chase & Co. to recover tens of billions of dollars in “lost value,” accusing the bank of precipitating its downfall and preventing it from winding down in an orderly fashion.

JPMorgan, which was Lehman’s main short-term lender before its September 2008 bankruptcy, helped cause the failure by demanding $8.6 billion of collateral as credit markets tightened during the financial crisis, Lehman said in a complaint filed yesterday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York.

“On the brink of LBHI’s bankruptcy, JPMorgan leveraged its life and death power as the brokerage firm’s primary clearing bank to force LBHI into a series of one-sided agreements and to siphon billions of dollars in critically needed assets,” Lehman said in the complaint.

Lehman, once the fourth-biggest investment bank, has said it may spend another five years selling assets to pay unsecured creditors as little as 14.7 cents on the dollar. Any money recovered through lawsuits may increase the payout.

“The lawsuit is ill conceived, and the costly litigation will cause a further drain on the limited resources available to the Lehman bankruptcy estate,” said Joe Evangelisti, a JPMorgan spokesman.

The lawsuit follows a report by Lehman examiner Anton Valukas, who said in March that Lehman might have grounds for suing JPMorgan and other banks.

Lehman said JPMorgan’s top managers took advantage of privileged information they gained as Lehman’s primary clearing bank to “capitalize” on a Lehman bankruptcy.

Dimon Meetings

JPMorgan Chairman Jamie Dimon knew from meetings in Washington with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that the U.S. wouldn’t rescue Lehman and decided to “accelerate” the bank’s efforts to gain more collateral from Lehman, according to the complaint.

JPMorgan gained extra collateral from Lehman in part by threatening to stop providing clearing services that were the “lifeblood” of the Lehman brokerage and other affiliates, according to the lawsuit. Lehman said JPMorgan put a “financial gun” to its head and gave the already insolvent investment bank nothing in return for the collateral.

Lehman said in the complaint that from Sept. 9 to Sept. 11 in 2008 it posted $3.57 billion in cash and money-market funds as collateral. On the night of Sept. 11, JP Morgan demanded an additional $5 billion, which Lehman delivered the next night.

Total Collateral

The total $8.6 billion in collateral “rightfully” belongs to defunct Lehman and its creditors, Lehman said. In addition, it seeks unspecified damages, according to the complaint.

“As the examiner’s report makes clear, it was the ill- advised decisions of Lehman itself and its principals to take on perilous leverage and to double down on subprime mortgages and overpriced commercial real estate, and not any conduct by JPMorgan, that led to Lehman’s demise and the enormous losses to its various constituents,” Evangelisti said.

Lehman also has sued Barclays Plc, which bought its bankrupt brokerage, alleging the British bank made an $11 billion “windfall” on the deal. A trial of that suit is due to continue next month in bankruptcy court.

Lehman filed the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history with assets of $639 billion. It has paid its lawyers and managers $794 million in 19 months, according to a regulatory filing.

Creditors include Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS AG, the New York Giants and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority as well as individuals who hold Lehman bonds.

The case is In re Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., 08-13555, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

[Demeter]

37. Interesting How Much the NYT DIDN'T Say In Their Version of the Story!

[Demeter]

39. FASB Plan Would Force Banks to Report Loan Fair Value (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601208&sid=aZRRU2uGbl9g

The Financial Accounting Standards Board is seeking public comment on a proposal that would require banks to report the fair value of loans on their books and accelerate recognition of credit losses.

The proposal, which also seeks to simplify accounting of hedges, was released for comment through Sept. 30, FASB said yesterday in a statement. The Norwalk, Connecticut-based panel, which sets U.S. accounting standards, estimated that the rules would go into effect in 2013, according to a summary of the proposal.

Banks would have to report both the fair value and amortized cost of loans and some other financial assets and liabilities on their balance sheets under the new rules, FASB said. Changes in fair value would in most cases be recognized in other comprehensive income, the panel said. That could cause swings of billions of dollars in the book values of some of the nation’s biggest lenders.

“The proposal would impact the reporting by financial institutions and all other entities that have financial instruments as the goal of greater transparency in financial statements is pursued,” FASB Chairman Robert Herz said in the statement. “The FASB will ensure that it obtains and considers a broad range of input on this important proposal.”

DISCUSSION PRO AND CON FOLLOWS...SEE LINK

[Demeter]

41. 'Fair Value' Proposal Could Cost Banks

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704032704575268962900687370.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

... Edward Yingling, president and chief executive of the American Bankers Association, a trade group, said the proposal "presents significant problems, not only for banks, but also the general economy." The change would undermine the availability of credit because any bank making a long-term loan would immediately see that loan lose value under the new accounting standard, he said.

Critics of applying fair value to loans have claimed the existing use of fair value has deepened the financial crisis by forcing financial firms to take unjustified losses on assets that shrank in value when market conditions worsened temporarily.

Banks already disclose the fair value of loans in footnotes filed with their financial statements. Still, supporters of applying fair value to loans on the balance sheet have said it would help investors by making bank balance sheets clearer and more accurate.

FASB's move takes a tougher line than the International Accounting Standards Board, which has proposed that non-U.S. companies carry their loans at amortized cost, as long as their business model is to hold onto their loans and collect the payments on them rather than selling the loans. The difference between the two approaches complicates a major effort to bring U.S. and non-U.S. accounting rules closer together....

Most of the 7,932 federally insured commercial banks and savings institutions in the U.S. as of March 31 are small. At many of those institutions, two-thirds or more of the balance sheet is made up loans held at their original cost.

[ozymandius]

49. Back later.

I still need to put in a half day at school. The students finished yesterday. Some employees are needed to help pack some rooms for the eight weeks' vacation.

:hi:

[DemReadingDU]

53. Matt Taibbi: Wall Street's War

5/26/10 Wall Street's War
Congress looked serious about finance reform – until America's biggest banks unleashed an army of 2,000 paid lobbyists
This article originally appeared in RS 1106 from June 10, 2010.

Picture the Restoring American Financial Stability Act as a vast conflict being fought on multiple fronts, with the tiny but enormously influential Wall Street lobby on one side and pretty much everyone else on the planet on the other. To be precise, think World War II – with some battles won by long marches and brutal campaigns of attrition, others by blitzkrieg attacks, still more decided by espionage and clandestine movements. Time after time, at the last moment, the Wall Street axis has turned seemingly lost positions into surprise victories or, at worst, bitterly fought stalemates. The only way to accurately convey the scale of Wall Street's ingenious comeback is to sketch out all the crazy, last-minute shifts on each of the war's four major fronts.

FRONT #1
AUDITING THE FED

FRONT #2
PROTECTING CONSUMERS

FRONT #3
ENDING "TOO BIG TO FAIL"

FRONT #4
REINING IN DERIVATIVES


Whatever the final outcome, the War for Finance Reform serves as a sweeping demonstration of how power in the Senate can be easily concentrated in the hands of just a few people. Senators in the majority party – Brown, Kaufman, Merkley, even a committee chairman like Lincoln – took a back seat to Reid and Dodd, who tinkered with amendments on all four fronts of the war just enough to keep many of them from having real teeth. "They're working to come up with a bill that Wall Street can live with, which by definition makes it a bad bill," one Democratic aide explained in the final, frantic days of negotiation.

On the plus side, the bill will rein in some forms of predatory lending, and contains a historic decision to audit the Fed. But the larger, more important stuff – breaking up banks that grow Too Big to Fail, requiring financial giants to pay upfront for their own bailouts, forcing the derivatives market into the light of day – probably won't happen in any meaningful way. The Senate is designed to function as a kind of ongoing negotiation between public sentiment and large financial interests, an endless tug of war in which senators maneuver to strike a delicate mathematical balance between votes and access to campaign cash. The problem is that sometimes, when things get really broken, the very concept of a middle ground between real people and corrupt special interests becomes a grotesque fallacy. In times like this, we need our politicians not to bridge a gap but to choose sides and fight. In this historic battle over finance reform, when we had a once-in-a-generation chance to halt the worst abuses on Wall Street, many senators made the right choice. In the end, however, the ones who mattered most picked wrong – and a war that once looked winnable will continue to drag on for years, creating more havoc and destroying more lives before it is over.

lots more about each of the four fronts...
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/;kw=<36899,157778>?RS_show_page=0

edit to add the tiny direct link
http://tinyurl.com/3xgqazf

[Festivito]

55. Debt: 05/26/2010 12,987,274,122,710.70 (DOWN 8,505,367,733.82) (Wed)

(Up a little, really. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,479,472,082,662.04 + 4,507,802,040,048.66
UP 1,057,190,066.84 + DOWN 9,562,557,800.66

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,347,439 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,982.81.
A family of three owes $125,948.42. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,859,550,650.22.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,563,670,476.83.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 163 reports in 238 days of FY2010 averaging 6.61B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 970 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/26/2010 12,987,274,122,710.70 BHO (UP 2,360,397,073,797.62 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,077,445,119,199.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,652,384,321,460.65 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/05/2010 +000,598,834,211.91 ------------********
05/06/2010 -014,947,673,650.95 -
05/07/2010 +000,000,195,077.74 ------------*****
05/10/2010 +000,804,647,162.22 ------------******** Mon
05/11/2010 -000,148,047,510.67 ---
05/12/2010 +000,782,970,242.92 ------------********
05/13/2010 +003,301,759,550.17 ------------*********
05/14/2010 -000,440,383,687.55 ---
05/18/2010 +000,360,533,772.20 ------------******** Tue
05/19/2010 +000,208,812,715.15 ------------********
05/20/2010 +010,103,129,083.31 ------------**********
05/21/2010 +000,263,393,058.28 ------------********
05/24/2010 +000,371,674,396.55 ------------******** Mon
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********

3,254,250,543.39 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4399983&mesg_id=4399995

[Festivito]

86. Debt: 05/27/2010 12,987,916,782,708.55 (UP 642,659,997.85) (Thu)

(Up a good bit. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,494,713,847,016.31 + 4,493,202,935,692.24
UP 15,241,764,354.27 + DOWN 14,599,104,356.42

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,354,085 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,983.98.
A family of three owes $125,951.95. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,618,228,778.44.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,386,701,104.19.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 164 reports in 239 days of FY2010 averaging 6.57B$ per report, 4.51B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 969 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/27/2010 12,987,916,782,708.55 BHO (UP 2,361,039,733,795.47 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,078,087,779,196.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,646,452,047,727.33 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/06/2010 -014,947,673,650.95 -
05/07/2010 +000,000,195,077.74 ------------*****
05/10/2010 +000,804,647,162.22 ------------******** Mon
05/11/2010 -000,148,047,510.67 ---
05/12/2010 +000,782,970,242.92 ------------********
05/13/2010 +003,301,759,550.17 ------------*********
05/14/2010 -000,440,383,687.55 ---
05/18/2010 +000,360,533,772.20 ------------******** Tue
05/19/2010 +000,208,812,715.15 ------------********
05/20/2010 +010,103,129,083.31 ------------**********
05/21/2010 +000,263,393,058.28 ------------********
05/24/2010 +000,371,674,396.55 ------------******** Mon
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********

17,897,180,685.75 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4401643&mesg_id=4401763

[dmallind]

59. Personal income up. Spending flat

Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Personal Income - M/M change 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.3 % to 0.6 % 0.4 %
Personal Income - Yr/Yr change 3.0 % 2.5 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change 0.6 % 0.2 % -0.1 % to 0.5 % 0.0 %
Consumer Spending - Yr/Yr change 2.9 % 4.6 %

[Ghost Dog]

62. Swiss exports up in April, KOF shows more growth

ZURICH, May 28 (Reuters) - Switzerland's economy is set to grow more in coming months, the KOF barometer showed on Friday, heightening the central bank's dilemma of how to respond to a solid domestic recovery while fighting a rise in the currency.

Also on Friday, data showed Swiss exports rose for the second consecutive month in April as stronger global demand for Swiss goods offset the potential dampening effect of the strength of the franc, which has become a magnet for investors seeking a safe haven.

UniCredit economist Alexander Koch said the conundrum for the Swiss National Bank was getting trickier after the KOF rose to 2.16 in May, its strongest since Aug. 2006.

'(If) the pressure on the Swiss franc remains, and at the same time the Swiss economy is fundamentally showing you should raise rates, it's a tough question -- what do you do?,' Koch said.

Switzerland weathered the global downturn better than other European countries. With the euro pummelled by concerns about sovereign debt in southern Europe, the franc strengthened nearly 3 percent against the euro between April 1 and May 19, when it hit a record high just past 1.40 francs to the euro, despite repeated SNB interventions to halt its rise.

'We consider 1.40 not to be dramatic, we would need a much stronger franc to dampen exports,' said Credit Suisse economist Fabian Heller.

Exports rose by 3.2 percent in April from a year earlier to 15.755 billion Swiss francs ($13.6 billion), the Federal Customs Office said. That lifted Switzerland's merchandise trade surplus to 2.022 billion francs, from 1.696 billion in March.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-05/17021606-update-1-swiss-exports-up-in-april-kof-shows-more-growth-020.htm

[Demeter]

71. I'm responsible

I've been buying the new Intense Orange bars by Lindt. They are fabulous. I wish I could buy them in bulk, because the best price I ever saw was 1.99/3.5 oz.

[TalkingDog]

70. A little tin foil-ness to chew on...ewww.. or maybe not. Puetz Windows

A friend sent this along. Says the next one is due early in July:
http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/783611/Put-On-Your-Crash-Helmets.htm

(Note that the article is from 01)

Several years back, a cycle watcher named Steve Puetz attempted to see if eclipses and market crashes were somehow related. He studied eight of the greatest crashes in financial history, from the Holland Tulip Mania of 1637 to the Nikkei of 1990. He found that market crashes tend to occur near full moons, and that the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse. Puetz found that all eight crashes occurred six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of that being a coincidence, Puetz calculated, are less than 1 in 127,000.


Hey, it's as comprehensible and valid as some theories I've seen.

[Demeter]

72. So, when is the next one?

You can't leave us hanging like that!

[TalkingDog]

74. Early in July...no date, but NASA or Earth and Sky

Or some astronomy site should have the upcoming eclipse. Let me re-read and I'll do some calc.

[TalkingDog]

76. It looks like about 2 months from now

http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEmono/TSE2010/TSE2010.html Total solar eclipse: July 11th

The next full moon after that will be Monday, July 26th at 1:37 am


Might be good basis for a betting pool.....



Sorry I keep editing...I want to make sure the info is accurate.

I forgot (or never learned) that a solar eclipses are paired with lunar eclipses.

So if the solar eclipse is always followed by a lunar eclipse (within 2 weeks) and this happens several times a year...I guess all he was correlating was the timing of the crash in relation to the eclipse and not the solar followed by lunar.


It takes me a while sometimes, but I do tend to catch on after a bit....

[ozone_man]

80. Also, the full moon June 26th.

The six weeks can be before or after the full solar eclipse. If I've got it right, six days before and three days after each full moon, make the two windows 6/20 - 6/29 and 7/20 - 7/29. It'll be interesting if anything major happens then.

Well, I just think a crash can occur anytime from here on. There will probably be lots of them. Like a cascading water fall. All the way down to Capitulation Sea.

[TalkingDog]

81. Ahhh... I was just going by this phrase

"the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse"

Thanks for reading it a little more closely than I did.

[Dr.Phool]

78. What's Nostradamus have to say about this?

[tclambert]

79. Screw Nostradamus. I predict the next market crash will be . . .

within two weeks of a full moon. Plus or minus one day.

And it will happen on a day of the week with an "A" in it. But not one starting with an "S."

It will hurt middle class retirees far more than it hurts Wall Street executives.

Republicans and freshwater (Chicago-school) economists will try to argue that government interference lay behind the crash. Smarter people will call it a "Minsky moment" and talk about tulips.

Demeter and TheWatcher will cheer and ask Tansy for her ITYS stamp. And I will swear loudly because I lost money in the big casino again.

[TalkingDog]

82. I like your theory

MUCH easier to understand and an almost foolproof proof.....

[ozymandius]

85. "Where's the bar?"

He was a notorious drunk.

[Ghost Dog]

75. U.S. stocks slide and euro falls after Spain downgrade

NEW YORK (Reuters) - World equities slid and the euro fell on Friday after a downgrade of Spain's credit rating sent a new chill through markets already worried about the European debt crisis.

The downgrade by Fitch Ratings ignited a new round of selling in equities that were already lower after lacklustre U.S. economic data injected a note of caution ahead of long holiday weekends in both the United States and the UK.

Fitch downgraded Spain's credit rating to AA-plus, and said it expects the country's adjustment to a lower debt level will materially reduce its rate of economic growth over the medium-term.

Fitch cited an inflexible labour market and a restructuring of regional and local savings banks as hindrances to the pace of adjustment.

"This should exacerbate the tremendous volatility we've seen in global stocks as the world wrestles with the idea of a debt-based collapse," said Chip Hanlon, president of Delta Global Advisors in Huntington Beach, California.

"Adding to this is the fact that no one wants to be long over a holiday weekend."

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE64R3QU20100528

Will comment later, when I've time...

[Ghost Dog]

83. BTW, SMWers may be interested (psychology-of-markets-wise)

in a late post from me, from last night: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4399983&mesg_id=4401517

Now I'm here in Ronda. Austere Spain? (So far...) You must be joking. If you could hear the music, lively conversations and laughter outside, this night. From all age-groups and social classes (except the Lugubrious Super-Rich, naturally, or un-naturally, keeping themselves to themselves, I suppose).

The vivacious social motility of this culture, above all, is why I love it.

More later. Especially if the ferry has wifi.