STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday June 14

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday June 14, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 11, 2010

Dow... 10,211.07 +38.54 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq... 2,243.60 +24.89 (+1.11%)
S&P 500... 1,091.60 +4.76 (+0.44%)
Gold future... 1,231 +1.20 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.27 +0.03 (+1.02%)
30-Year Bond 4.17 +0.02 (+0.55%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. no goobermental reports today n/t

[Demeter]

2. First Rec!

And I'm not even going to mention the humidity today. Sigh.

Good morning Ozy. It's all downhill from here.

[ozymandius]

4. I've seen that its been running high in your area.

My sympathies to you. That must make your skin very uncomfortable when the humidity is running even with the fahrenheit degrees.

Good morning. :donut: :donut: :donut:

[Dr.Phool]

8. You want humid? I'll show you humid.

Temps in mid 90s, Dewpoint in mid 70s.

Partly cloudy with a chance of oil. Water temps in the Gulf of Texaco were 89 degrees last night.

[ozymandius]

10. Ow!

My skin is wrinkling from here - and I'm not even that old yet.

[Po_d Mainiac]

16. Up heeyah we get the benefit of remembering when our world was covered by glaciers

just 4 short months ago.

It's nice to have the joints move without making a crack/creek/crunch sound.
YMMV

[Tansy_Gold]

25. While out here in the oven. . . .

It's been very mild. Currently 67 with 42% humidity, which will likely become 100 and 10 by late afternoon.

An overnight low of 67 in mid-June is almost unheard of. My aging a/c is getting a well-deserved respite.



TG

[Dr.Phool]

31. But, it's a dry heat. Kinda like a blowtorch.

[Tansy_Gold]

47. it is indeed. But on days like this, when it will hit 100, it's not

unbearable. Our 100 is much more like your 85, well, except for in the sun you burn to a crisp in nanoseconds. So, you stay out of the sun!

Seriously -- people who have never experienced the dry heat really do not understand how totally different it is. I spent a week in Seattle last year when they were having three-digit temperatures and I felt as if I were drowning. Even at night, it stayed hot, sticky, miserable. Ditto for the following week in New Jersey.

At least here we have virtually universal a/c.


TG

[TalkingDog]

59. I've been in AZ in mid summer. It was 110

and other than the disconcerting heat on the soles of my feet from the pavement, it was very nice.

[ozymandius]

29. Meanwhile, in my urban hellhole...

Forecast for metro Atlanta: Highs expected to reach 95º today with 40% humidity. Currently 78º with 80% humidity.

[Warpy]

62. Relief is on the way if it holds together long enough

Temperatures in the high desert were in the low 50s this morning, air is dry, dry, dry. High will be in the 80s.

I have to paint the trim on the portal today and I have to wait until it warms up a bit to do it. This after triple digit temperatures this time last week.

Let's hope the market is as kind. The dollar is easing back down, so maybe it will be.

[TalkingDog]

56. Our heat index is supposed to put us up to almost 100 today

I was chastening the puppy (our youngest dog) to stop trying to make the Mister run around on the evening walk. I told him: There's not enough air. The mister replied: Oh, there's plenty of air...there's just a lot of stuff between it and my lungs.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises above $75 as global equities rally

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $75 a barrel Monday in Asia as rallying stock markets and a stronger euro bolstered investor confidence.

Major Asian and European stock markets gained Monday, led by a 1.8 percent jump in Japan, as traders bet the region's strong economic growth will boost company profits. Crude investors often look to equities as a barometer of overall investor sentiment.

Investors will be eyeing reports on U.S. housing starts, industrial production and consumer prices this week for clues about the strength of the global economy.

In other Nymex trading in July contracts, heating oil rose 3.17 cents to $2.0370 a gallon and gasoline gained 3.03 cents to $2.080 a gallon. Natural gas jumped 10 cents to $4.881 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

13. Oil spill 'will shape how US thinks about environment'

US President Barack Obama has said the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico will have the same impact on the US psyche as 9/11.

In an interview with US website Politico, he said the disaster would "shape how we think about the environment... for years to come".

Mr Obama said he could not predict whether the nation would make a complete transition from an oil-based economy within his lifetime, but added that "now is the time for us to start making that transition and investing in a new way of doing business when it comes to energy".

"What we can predict is that the availability of fossil fuel is going to be diminishing; that it's going to get more expensive to recover; that there are going to be environmental costs that our children… our grandchildren and our great-grandchildren are going to have to bear."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/us_and_canada/10307782.stm

[Dr.Phool]

20. Not to worry. We hit the jackpot in Afghanistan.

Think of all the electric cars we can build with all that lithium.

Just turn the country over to Blackwater, Halliburton, Massey Energy, and Freeport MacMoran (Macmoran. An Irish Moran?).

People in Jonestown were discussing what a great boost that will be to the Afghan economy. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: if it weren't so sad. We'll never leave now.

[ozymandius]

23. Never gonna leave.

Troops have been guarding Occidental Petroleum's pipelines in Columbia for decades. Afghanistan will be no different. "Where the dollar goes, the flag goes. And the troops follow the flag."

[bread_and_roses]

36. All I could think when I read that was

"OMG, haven't those poor people suffered enough? Now this?" No doubt Halleburton, et al, will finally succeed where even Alexander failed...and do I recall correctly that a few of the very few snow leapords left are in the mountains of Afghanistan? I guess we'll be saying good-bye to them even sooner ...

[Po_d Mainiac]

48. The peasants will still be growing poppy's, while the PTB

siphon off the cream :grr:

[amandabeech]

54. I don't think that we in the US will build those cars.

They'll be built in China, or if the Chinese workers get pay raises, someplace where the government is business friendly and the workers will assemble until they drop for a couple of dollars a day.

Nonetheless, our military will protect those lithium supplies with money that we borrow from China.

A crappy thought for a Monday.

[tclambert]

76. Natives with valuable resources? Send 'em to the reservation.

It's the American way.

[ozymandius]

5. US, Japan surveys bring optimism to Asian markets

HONG KONG (AFP) – Asian stock markets rose on Monday as investors took their cue from surveys out of the United States and Japan that show growing optimism about the state of the global economy.

Tokyo's Nikkei rose 1.80 percent to end at 174.60 points, to 9,879.85, while Hong Kong lifted 0.90 percent to end at 20,051.91.

HONG KONG (AFP) – Asian stock markets rose on Monday as investors took their cue from surveys out of the United States and Japan that show growing optimism about the state of the global economy.

The strong sentiment also helped the euro to recover further ground as dealers became less risk averse.

Tokyo's Nikkei rose 1.80 percent to end at 174.60 points, to 9,879.85, while Hong Kong lifted 0.90 percent to end at 20,051.91.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100614/bs_afp/asiafinancestocksforex

[Ghost Dog]

50. GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks extend gains; euro jumps 1 pct

LONDON, June 14 14:21 (Reuters) - World stocks rose 1 percent on Monday to their highest level in over a week and heading for their fourth straight day of gains as investors banked on global economic recovery to trump concerns over euro zone debt. The euro also followed up its best week this year against the dollar to rise 1 percent. It gained 1.6 percent last week after slumping to a four-year low to the greenback.

A tentative equity rally since late May has lifted world stocks by around 6 percent from their lows. The index was up 0.9 percent by 1145 GMT on Monday. Similarly, MSCI's main emerging market stock index has gained more than 9 percent since hitting a year low on May 25. It was up 1.4 percent on Monday.

While markets were spooked a week back by U.S. data showing measly growth in private sector job creation, strong economic data from China has reinforced a belief that the world recovery is indeed gaining traction. In the United States, President Barack Obama is stepping up a push for more government spending to boost the economy via tax breaks to some businesses and more jobless benefits, adding to last year's $863 billion stimulus.

Part of the current rally is due to this year's sell off -- world stocks are down 6 percent year to date and 8.2 percent for the second quarter -- but it is also the result of a belief among many investors that the underlying economic backdrop is relatively positive and that will support corporate earnings.

...

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up 0.8 percent to a four-week high after strong euro zone industrial output rekindled optimism over the bloc's economic outlook. The rally was driven by banking, mining and commodity stocks, all of which tend to gain when economic sentiment is on the plus side. A slight easing in worries over the euro zone crisis helped the banking sector, with leading banks Barclays, HSBC , Societe Generale and Deutsche Bank rising 0.9 to 2.6 percent.

...

Earlier, Japan's Nikkei closed up 1.8 percent, driven higher by exporters, again a group with a high correlation to economic growth.

'What is helping the market is the notion that a double dip recession is not a big risk,' said Bernard McAlinden, investment strategist at NCB Stockbrokers in Dublin. 'I think that is what the markets are latching on to.'

EURO REBOUND

The euro firmed against the dollar, as hedge funds covered short positions on the single European currency.

/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-06/17146704-global-markets-stocks-extend-gains-euro-jumps-1-pct-020.htm

[Demeter]

68. In othr words, the delusion continues

man, what is WRONG with these people?

[Ghost Dog]

80. Uh huh. European growth boosts global markets

Mon, 14 Jun 2010 18:24:18 GMT Global markets have risen following news that Europe's industrial production in April climbed beyond expectations, despite fears over the European Union debt crisis.

The news indicates that although the governments of the 16-nation union are slashing their debts through austerity measures, EU economy still keeps on growing, the Associated Press reported.

On Monday trades in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 grew 0.5 percent, Germany's DAX index climbed 1.3 percent, and France's CAC-40 gained 1.9 percent.

/... http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=130440§ionid=3510213

[Demeter]

6. The Continuing Collapse of Ponzi Finance and the Real Economy

http://www.archein21.com/2010/06/continuing-collapse-of-ponzi-finance.html

FUNDAMENTAL BASIS OF A CULTURE OF TRADERS.

"We have now an opportunity of watching the manifold growth of the culture of a society of which commerce is the soul, just as personal rivalry was the soul of culture among the ancient Greeks, and war, conquest, and law among the ancient Romans. The tradesman is able to value everything without producing it, and to value it according to the requirements of the consumer rather than his own personal needs. "How many and what class of people will consume this?" is his question of questions. Hence, he instinctively and incessantly employs this mode of valuation and applies it to everything, including the productions of art and science, and of thinkers, scholars, artists, statesmen, nations, political parties, and even entire ages: with respect to everything produced or created he inquires into the supply and demand in order to estimate for himself the value of a thing. This, when once it has been made the principle of an entire culture, worked out to its most minute and subtle details, and imposed upon every kind of will and knowledge, this is what you men of the coming century will be proud of -- if the prophets of the commercial classes are right in putting that century into your possession! But I have little belief in these prophets." -- F. Nietzsche

Ponzi schemes are at their basis fraud, with no connection to any real value. They are exclusively money operations in need of endless streams of new money to prop-up the fraud. Once new money dries up, or a small number of people withdraw their investment, the entire scheme is in danger of collapse. While our global financial system is not entirely a Ponzi scheme, it has vast elements which are. Many of the financial innovations of the past several decades were simply money operations, making money on money two or three levels removed from any connection to the real economy. The Ponzi aspects of the system require ever more new money, or liquidity, endangering the entire system with collapse once the liquidity dries up.

Starting in the summer of 2007, liquidity began to dry up. By the fall of 2008 it had reached crisis stage, not simply damaging the Ponzi aspects of the system, but the real economy aspects too. The initial stage of the Ponzi collapse was met several ways. First, the banks and Wall Street did take some losses, but not nearly enough. Secondly, and importantly, one of the smallest elements, was the implementation of the TARP. Next was the the massive extend and pretend effort, that remains in place, allowing the banks not to account the great losses they still hold on their books, in addition to the great transference of losses onto the public ledger through the Fed and GSE's(see Gretchen Morgenson's excellent piece on Fannie and Freddie). Finally, was the Fed's massive dumping of liquidity into the system with special programs, and most importantly, its zero interest rate policies.

For a time, all these efforts arrested the collapse of the Great Global Ponzi Finance Con. The American taxpayer, worker, and saver becoming the last pigeon, allowing, funnily enough, the return to the game of so-called "sophisticated" investors. Unfortunately, the Ponzi aspect of the system remained intact, waiting to collapse with a new drying up of liquidity, seemingly now well under way in Europe. Despite the Euro bailout and the Fed's opening of "swaps", cheaply lending more of your money to "Old Europe", rates are rising and the European Central Bank is increasingly the major short-term lender, providing liquidity of last resort. Call all this saving Ponzi Finance 2.0.

To show how increasingly ludicrous this can all quickly become, financial speculator Bob Janjuah calls for the Fed to provide ten-trillion more in liquidity! That's just a joke and should be considered exactly that, especially as Mr. Janjuah prophesizes from atop the great pile of financial garbage that is the Royal Bank of Scotland, which to date has received more bailout money than any other bank in the world. That's Failure with a capital F, thus begging the question what happened to the tight-fisted noble Scots? Obviously the answer is brought down from centuries of occupation, first of bloody English barbarism, and then, and much worse, contemporary English effeteness.

The only solution is to call an end to the Ponzi scheme and that means a massive destruction of Ponzi debt. Make no mistake, that will cause a little sacrifice everywhere, but it is the only real solution and necessary to free the economy so that it can restructure for the 21st century, ending the even greater Ponzi thinking of infinite growth on a finite planet. Yves Smith has a nice piece on the necessity of our beginning to tackle this thinking. When you talk about the culture of traders, our industrial economists whether they're Keynes on one side, Friedman the other, and Krugman et al lost hopelessly in the middle, they all agree on the doctrine of Ponzi growth, and that is species' suicide. We need to restructure our culture to consume less and produce less. Just as we evolved from an agrarian society to an industrial society, we must now evolve to a design society. We need to spend more time figuring out how to do better with less stuff, understanding in doing so, we can all have better lives.

AMEN. HERE ENDETH THE SERMON.

[DemReadingDU]

24. new blog for me, hadn't seen this one before

seems entries posted by Joe Costello. Hadn't read much by him.

[Tansy_Gold]

46. We need to spend more time figuring out how to do better with less stuff, understanding in doing so,

We can all have better lives.








Tansy Gold, who does not need to wax self-righteous this morning since someone else already has :evilgrin:



P.S. I'm going to be scarce the next few days because I'm trying to clear my schedule to take a very long week-end off the paying job next week. I have some thoughts that have been percolating in my weird little head for several months and I'm hoping to expound on them but only if/when I have sufficient time not to do half-justice to it.

[Demeter]

69. You're welcome. Hope you can shake loose for a bit.

All hell is popping over here. Why settle for one crisis, when you can have 3 at once, and kibitz on a 4th?

[ozymandius]

7. Obama steps up push for added economic stimulus

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama and his aides are stepping up a push for further government spending to boost the economy as signs grow of the recovery's fragility.

The White House is calling for Congress to urgently pass measures to extend jobless benefits, aid cash-strapped states and provide targeted tax breaks to encourage research and development by businesses.

Obama's Democratic allies, facing congressional elections in November, have grown cautious about additional spending. Seizing on voter anxiety about deficits, Republicans have cast the administration's policies as fiscally reckless as they seek to challenge Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress.

His comments came a day after Obama wrote to congressional leaders, urging them to move swiftly to approve new measures to "spur job creation and build momentum toward recovery."

Senate Democrats have introduced legislation that would renew expiring unemployment benefits, and extend business and individual tax breaks. They would offset some of the bill's costs by raising taxes on hedge fund managers and other steps.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100613/ts_nm/us_obama_economy

[ozymandius]

9. Obama faces rare defeat on health help for jobless

WASHINGTON – If Chuck Lacasse had gotten his pink slip four days earlier, Uncle Sam would have covered most of his family's health insurance while he looked for a new job.

But Congress allowed emergency health care assistance for unemployed workers to expire May 31, and seems unwilling to renew it despite pleas from President Barack Obama.
Not three months after lawmakers passed his $1 trillion insurance overhaul, Obama is facing a rare defeat on health care at the hands of his own divided Democrats. Moderates have rebelled against adding billions more to the deficit in a treacherous election year.

Democratic Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Sherrod Brown of Ohio have introduced a measure that would allow the program to continue helping people who get laid off through Nov. 30. That would cover Lacasse.

The lawmakers, who are seeking a vote this coming week, want to attach their nearly $7 billion provision to must-pass legislation that would extend unemployment benefits and make changes in dozens of federal programs. But a similar proposal was dropped from the House-passed bill, and Senate Democratic leaders also omitted it from their version.

Some conservative Democrats, however, say they don't understand why the government should subsidize workers who lose jobs with employer coverage and not others who are equally deserving — for example self-employed people priced out of the private market.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100612/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_care_unemployed

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To that last point, in bold, I say the solution is to find the legislative guts to pass a comprehensive healthcare overhaul that would guarantee universal healthcare coverage.

[Demeter]

42. Pretty Much Everything Has Been Defeated--It's Not So Rare

What's rare is that he actually took a stand on it. And took a public snub by the usual suspects, his bipartisan buddies.

The spin is making me sick. Already. Although it could be the high level of moisture clogging my brain and body...

[ozymandius]

11. Stock futures rise, point to higher opening

NEW YORK – Stocks are set to open the week higher, building on their first winning week in a month. Futures rose Monday following signs that Europe's economy is still growing.

Major European markets all rose after a report showed industrial production in the 16 countries that use the euro grew more than expected in April. The euro also rose, climbing back above $1.22 for the first time since June 4.

Ahead of the opening bell, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 68, or 0.7 percent, to 10,206. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose 8.50, or 0.8 percent, to 1,093.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 15.00, or 0.8 percent, to 1,857.00.

Stocks are trying to build on a rally that helped push stocks higher Friday and sent the Dow to its best week since mid-February. The Dow jumped 2.8 percent last week in volatile trading, which snapped a three-week losing streak. Stocks routinely sold off or rallied sharply during the final hours of trading each day.

Investors will have to wait a day for new insight into the domestic economy. There are no major reports Monday, but a steady stream later in the week.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100614/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/us_wall_street

[ozymandius]

12. British shares advance but BP posts losses

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- British shares advanced on Monday, with gains for miners outweighing another decline for oil giant BP as it continues to battle to stem a massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

The U.K. FTSE 100 index (UK:UKX 5,188, +23.84, +0.46%) rose 0.7% to 5,197.11. Other European shares were higher and U.S. stock futures were pointing to a stronger start on Wall Street. Read story on Europe Markets.

Elsewhere in the commodity sector, oil giant BP (UK:BP. 370.00, -21.90, -5.59%) (BP 32.73, -1.24, -3.65%) declined 4.9%, bringing month-to-date losses to 25%.

Board members of the firm were due Monday to determine their strategy on dividend payments as the company said that the cost of cleaning up the spill has reached $1.6 billion.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/british-shares-post-broad-advance-but-bp-declines-2010-06-14?dist=beforebell

[ozymandius]

14. BP Faces Containment Deadline as Obama Seeks Escrow

June 14 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc faces a U.S. deadline today for a plan to raise oil-containment capacity as President Barack Obama demands an escrow account for damages claims related to the worst environmental disaster in the nation’s history.

“We want to make sure the money is escrowed for the businesses and want to make sure the money is independently administered so it’s not slow-walked,” White House adviser David Axelrod said yesterday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

The U.S. Coast Guard gave the company until today to find more capacity to capture the leak in the Gulf of Mexico. Jon Pack, a BP spokesman, said the company will respond in a “timely manner.” BP’s board meets today to discuss whether to reduce or defer its second-quarter dividend.

Cost Estimates

The cleanup costs and legal liabilities resulting from the leak may reach $37 billion, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. BP said today that it has so far spent $1.6 billion on the response to the spill.

Scientists and researchers doubled their estimates of the spill’s size on June 10, and BP’s efforts don’t “provide the needed collection capacity consistent with the revised flow estimates,” said Rear Admiral James A. Watson, the federal on- scene coordinator, in a letter dated June 11. It was sent to Doug Suttles, BP’s chief operating officer for exploration and production, and was released June 12.

BP plans to almost triple its capacity to capture oil from its leaking well to as much as 50,000 barrels a day by mid-July, the Coast Guard said June 11. The plan calls for two pairs of production ships and shuttle tankers to replace a cluster of vessels at the site, Allen, the government’s national incident commander for the spill, said June 11 at a press conference in Washington.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-13/bp-faces-obama-cleanup-fund-escrow-demand-as-containment-deadline-nears.html

[ozymandius]

15. BP May Lose U.S. Oil Leases, Contracts as Gulf Spill Punishment

BP Plc may lose control of its U.S. oil and natural gas wells and be barred from doing business with the federal government as punishment for the worst oil spill in U.S. history, industry and regulatory analysts said.

President Barack Obama and lawmakers are debating penalties that would cripple the company’s ability to do business in the U.S. as public outrage intensifies. In addition to BP’s culpability in the Gulf of Mexico spill, a 2005 explosion at BP’s Texas City refinery that killed 15 workers and a 2006 pipeline leak that dumped 200,000 gallons of crude at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, will figure in the debate, said Michael Wara, associate professor of environmental law at Stanford University in Palo Alto, California.

The U.S. may revoke BP’s status as operator of producing wells in the Gulf of Mexico, such as Thunder Horse, or of leases at Prudhoe Bay, said David Pursell, a managing director at Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. LLC, a Houston investment bank. Separately, Congress is considering measures to bar BP from contracts with the Department of Defense and Environmental Protection Agency.

Escrow Demand

Lawmakers including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are demanding that BP defer the payment of any dividends until fishermen and others are compensated for losses from the spill. BP should set up an escrow account to cover claims, Obama aide David Axelrod said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday. The spill’s cost may reach $40 billion, Standard Chartered Bank estimated last week.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-13/bp-may-lose-u-s-oil-leases-contracts-as-obama-considers-spill-punishment.html

[ozymandius]

17. BP Options Show 63% Collapse as Hayward Heads to Washington

The fastest-growing bet on BP Plc in the U.S. stock-options market shows traders expect a 63 percent plunge in about a month as costs surge for its uncontrolled well spewing oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

Options to sell BP’s American depository receipts in July at $12.50 recorded the largest jump in open interest of any contract during the last two weeks, soaring to 33,445 outstanding from zero as the month began, according to data compiled by Trade Alert LLC. Investors buying the put options are wagering the shares will extend their drop from $33.97 and wipe out $140 billion from BP’s market value since April 20, when the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded.

BP Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward is set to testify before Congress this week and Chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg will answer a summons to the White House as politicians demand BP stops its dividend and pays laid off oil-rig workers. The spill’s cost may reach $40 billion, bank Standard Chartered Plc estimated last week, triple the $12.5 billion price tag Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. projected on April 30.

Credit default swaps for BP, contracts linked to the likelihood of the company failing to make debt repayments, soared to a record last week. The cost to protect $10 million of BP debt for a year reached $695,000, according to CMA DataVision. It was $29,000 on April 30.

More likely than default is BP will cut or defer its $10 billion-a-year dividend payments to appease politicians demanding it sets money aside to pay spill costs. Hayward said last week the company was “considering all options” for the second-quarter dividend. BP’s board will meet today to discuss the dividend, a spokesman said during the weekend.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-13/bp-inviting-shorts-betting-on-63-drop-as-ceo-hayward-heads-to-washington.html

[Po_d Mainiac]

18. Recent reports say oil blowing out of the casing below the sea bed.

The gulf could become a small bit of water amongst a huge slick of oil.

This really sucks!!

[ozymandius]

19. The thought of it makes me sick.

I have a visceral reaction to the wholesale destruction happening in the gulf.

[DemReadingDU]

30. It's like an underwater volcano gushing oil, and

and an underwater earthquake oozing more oil.

Plus loss of jobs, food, environment.

We are sooo screwed.

:(

[Po_d Mainiac]

32. My old man had a farm just off Perdido Bay

I worked a shrimper back in the early 70's one season, long before the condo's fucked up the beach. One of our daughters worked a place called "The Spot" (now gone after "Ivan") on the beach one summer break from college.

Step mother (only 8 years my senior) is still in Foley...This hits very close to home

[ozymandius]

63. That name 'Perdido' may take on a literal meaning.

Not trying to be clever. It's just uncanny that the bay would bear the name with the Spanish word for 'lost'. Thank you for this story - though it saddens me deeply.

[Dr.Phool]

22. They had video of it posted last night. ..edit, found one

I can't find them now, but I'll keep looking.

Really sickening.

Found one. Some major eruptions there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2RxIQP0IBU

[Po_d Mainiac]

27. cross post

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8549020

[Dr.Phool]

34. That's it. Thanks.

[tclambert]

77. I heard there might be a leak below the seafloor, also.

The video showing oil leaking through a crack in the seafloor, and the failure of the Top Kill attempt to plug the well suggest damage might exist lower down. If so, any attempt to stop the spill above the seafloor will not only fail, but potentially make the subsurface situation worse. The more oil forced out a subsurface leak under pressure, the more damage and erosion it will cause to the well casings and seafloor.

Whenever they think they've hit the worst case scenario, it seems we find out the situation is even worse than that.

Well, at least no one has tried to detonate a nuclear bomb to seal the well. Now THAT would fail spectacularly. How do you stop a leak coming out of the cracks in a mile-wide crater?

[ozymandius]

21. Time to check-in with our expert stock monitor:

Link to quote engine:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=msft

Link to original article:
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/fortune/1005/gallery.retire_rich_picks.fortune/index.html

When we started this thing on 6/1/10 - MSFT was at $25.80.
Last Trade: 25.66
Trade Time: Jun 11
52wk Range: 22.00 - 31.58
Volume: 4,065
Avg Vol (3m): 68,194,300
Market Cap: 224.88B
P/E (ttm): 13.30

[InkAddict]

39. Tracking PG we find:

Last trade: 61.01
Trade Time: June 11
52wk Range: 39.37 - 54.58
Volume: 500
Avg Vol: 12,928,200
Market Cap: 175.76B
P/E (ttm) 14.56

Paying div. 1.93 (3.20%)

P&G Brands
http://www.pg.com/en_US/brands/all_brands.shtml

When we started on 6/1/10 - PG was at 60.80 - inching up unremarkably

[ozymandius]

45. Ooh! I'm getting the vapors!

Fetch me the smelling salts. :evilgrin:

I am curious to see how this and other stocks reflect the "experts" buy and hold strategy. Microsoft, for one, has been mediocre-to-poor in returns.

[mbperrin]

51. Tracking XOM:

On 6/1/10 - XOM was at $59.25.
Last Trade: 62.07
Trade Time: Jun 14
52wk Range: 58.46 - 76.54
Volume: 2,568,577
Avg Vol (3m): 30,702,200
Market Cap: 291.98B
P/E (ttm): 14.14

[ozymandius]

26. Big Investment Firms Whine About News Coverage

Excellent outrage from Ritholtz:

Over the weekend, we noted that, according to a recent poll, Goldman Sach’s reputation is worse than even BP’s. Following that, I caught the tail end of a radio interview over the weekend, where some wire house senior executive (didn’t get the name) was complaining about the negative coverage his firm received in the press.

Really? You think the corporate-owned wimpy US press has been too hard on you? Just because you nearly brought down the entire global economy through your recklessness, then took trillions in taxpayer money as a reward for your irresponsibility, then — instantly — returned to business as usual. Somehow, you think everyone should be going easy on you?

What an ass.

If you hostile and negative, try reading the British papers. They aren’t nearly as bought off as the US corporate media is. They have teeth, do real investigations, and basically do not carry water for the biggest firms.

Not only did the big shops help cause the crisis, they proceeded to wallop their clients investments courtesy of their long-only, fully-invested never changing posture. Average investor returns in 2007-08 — down 55%. Average investor returns from 2000-2010 — down 10%.

How date anyone write anything bad about that sort of performance! Why, you are just being hostile and negative!

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/big-firms-whine-about-news-coverage/

Some whiney-ass pirate is upset over bruising coverage? What a poor little baby...

[ozymandius]

33. BP: Still not as evil as Goldman Sachs

From Felix Salmon:

I love this chart from BrandIndex, showing responses to the question “If you’ve heard anything about the brand in the last two weeks, was it positive or negative?”.

To get a score of -40, where Goldman Sachs seems to have fallen to, you’d need 70 people saying they were hearing negative stuff about the bank for every 30 saying they’d heard something positive. BP’s not there yet: I do wonder who’s hearing positive things about them.

But it’s interesting that BP was cruising along happily in positive territory until the spill, while Goldman has been negative for all of the past year. And both have deteriorated significantly in the past couple of months. Chances are there will be some kind of reversion to mean in the future in both cases, but it seems that BP has more upside than Goldman, whose public reputation is likely to stay in tatters for the foreseeable future.

That really takes some effort to outdo BP's negatives.

[Po_d Mainiac]

38. But they are working on it n/t

[Festivito]

28. Debt: 06/10/2010 13,041,405,343,973.44 (DOWN 4,743,271,797.35) (Thu)

(Down some. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,572,105,359,213.03 + 4,469,299,984,760.41
DOWN 5,787,434,254.89 + UP 1,044,162,457.54

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,231.57 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,447,131 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,144.21.
A family of three owes $126,432.63. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,209,993,918.20.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,820,662,206.68.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,697,415,038.73.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 173 reports in 253 days of FY2010 averaging 6.54B$ per report, 4.47B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 955 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.4 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/10/2010 13,041,405,343,973.44 BHO (UP 2,414,528,295,060.36 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,131,576,340,461.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,632,511,321,219.45 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/20/2010 +010,103,129,083.31 ------------**********
05/21/2010 +000,263,393,058.28 ------------********
05/24/2010 +000,371,674,396.55 ------------******** Mon
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********
05/28/2010 -000,294,414,430.12 ---
06/01/2010 +078,359,726,143.31 ------------********** Tue
06/02/2010 +000,523,171,733.61 ------------********
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********
06/10/2010 -005,787,434,254.89 --

105,365,879,211.24 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4422466&mesg_id=4422685

[Festivito]

81. Debt: 06/11/2010 13,041,208,520,697.17 (DOWN 196,823,276.27) (Fri)

(Down a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,572,070,185,728.23 + 4,469,138,334,968.94
DOWN 35,173,484.80 + DOWN 161,649,791.47

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,231.50 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,453,777 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,142.67.
A family of three owes $126,428.01. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,002,308,336.53.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,668,359,446.79.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,550,025,271.09.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 254 days of FY2010 averaging 6.50B$ per report, 4.45B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 954 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/11/2010 13,041,208,520,697.17 BHO (UP 2,414,331,471,784.09 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,131,379,517,185.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,625,801,274,695.56 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/21/2010 +000,263,393,058.28 ------------********
05/24/2010 +000,371,674,396.55 ------------******** Mon
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********
05/28/2010 -000,294,414,430.12 ---
06/01/2010 +078,359,726,143.31 ------------********** Tue
06/02/2010 +000,523,171,733.61 ------------********
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********
06/10/2010 -005,787,434,254.89 --
06/11/2010 -000,035,173,484.80 ----

95,227,576,643.13 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4425803&mesg_id=4425855

[ozymandius]

35. Contagion is spreading: Worries about the euro travel to the Middle East

ABU DHABI (MarketWatch) -- The European debt crisis has claimed its latest victim -- not in Frankfurt, but a six-hour plane journey away from the headquarters of the European Central Bank.

The long-mooted plan to introduce a single currency for the states of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council has been put on hold. The reason: disruptive currents from the Mediterranean have washed through to the balmy waters of the Gulf.

Foreign ministers at a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting in Jeddah at the end of last month expressed caution about plans for a single currency -- at one stage envisaged as being implemented in 2010, then put back to 2015.

Yet Arab states' wish to digest the lesson of the upheavals in Europe before proceeding further with the single currency blueprint does have some positive side effects. It defuses, at least for the time being, divisions building up between the two biggest economies in the region, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE withdrew from the project last year, following the earlier decision by Oman that it would not be ready to join a Gulf single currency.

Although much attention has been drawn to the UAE's hostility to the Saudi desire to place the GCC central bank in Riyadh, opposition from the Emirates seems to run much deeper than that. UAE officials echo traditional German views during the long years of preparation for economic and monetary union in Europe. They say that rushing ahead with a single currency before harmonization of economies, greater trade integration and preparation of adequate statistical material in areas like inflation amounts to putting the cart before the horse.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euro-worries-travel-to-the-middle-east-2010-06-14?siteid=rss&rss=1

[Ghost Dog]

73. Euro rate now more 'normal': French central banker

PARIS (AFP) – The value of the euro, which has slid sharply this year, is now at a more normal rate against the US dollar that is beneficial to Europe, Bank of France governor Christian Noyer said Sunday. "A euro which is positioned more normally as it is today facilitates economic activity, exports and Europe's competitiveness," Noyer said on TV5Monde.

The euro, which has slid in the past months from 1.40 to 1.20 dollars "has returned to a level near where it was at its launch and the average of the past 10 years," he told the television station. The euro traded hands around 1.21 dollars on Friday.

The French central banker acknowledged the sharp slide in the euro "was worrisome because it gave an impression of a lack of confidence on the markets," but said "this is now over." Noyer noted an overvalued euro was no help to the 16-member eurozone. "A strong currency is foremost a currency that retains its purchasing power, that is why price stability is the alpha and omega of a sound currency, safe and respected in Europe and the whole world," he said.

Noyer said the French government's plan to cut its public deficit by 100 billion euros to bring it down from eight percent to the eurozone limit of three percent of gross domestic product by 2013 is achievable. "I am quite confident that it is possible to do it," said Noyer, calling it an "achievable" goal.

French Prime Minister Francois Fillon announced Saturday that roughly half the figure would involve slashing spending, with the rest coming from higher tax receipts once economic growth rebounds.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100613/bs_afp/financeeconomyforexfrance_20100613213243;_ylt=AoZZzJDjWINBjndBzZtgppOFOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTMxZGs0ZjYyBGFzc2V0A2FmcC8yMDEwMDYxMy9maW5hbmNlZWNvbm9teWZvcmV4ZnJhbmNlBHBvcwMxOQRzZWMDeW5fcGFnaW5hdGVfc3VtbWFyeV9saXN0BHNsawNldXJvcmF0ZW5vd20-

[Demeter]

79. More Thoughts on Switzerland and Why the Euro is Not Lower

Investors are still trying to get their heads around the SNB’s preliminary indication that is reserves rose to CHF232 bln in May from CHF153 bln in April. This represents more than a 50% increase in reserves in a single month.

It would be tempting to attribute this to valuation changes. As we have noted when looking at the IMF’s COFER data, valuation shifts often swamp the actually flows. However, in this case it is largely a reflection of SNB intervention. During the month of May, the Swiss franc declined 6.7% against the dollar, while the euro declined by 7.4%. That 1.3% difference is a rounding error when considering a more than 50% increase in the valuation of SNB reserves.

The SNB’s balance sheet is around three times larger than it averaged in the pre-2009 period, prior to the quantitative easing. Such an explosion in the SNB’s balance sheet has not, though, undermined the Swiss franc, which set a new record high vs the euro today.

The SNB appears to have changed its tactics. It does not appear to be defending a particular level as it had seemed to do in the past, like CHF1.50, then CHF1.40. Instead, it’s intervention now may be more properly thought of as a smoothing operation, like blowing air under a parachute.

In addition, there is some talk that the SNB is not intervening as much directly in the euro-franc cross, but is going through the dollar. Selling euros for dollars and buying dollars for francs, which might help explain the strange price action earlier today.

The SNB’s task may prove increasingly difficult. It meets on June 17th for a policy meeting and it may very well revise up both growth and inflation, even though the Swiss franc’s strength may have a deflationary thrust.

The government has revised up this year’s GDP forecast to 1.8% from 1.4% and has revised up exports as well. Next year’s growth forecast was cut, however, to 1.6% from 2% and exports appear to have been revised down as much as this year’s were revised up. Unemployment forecast was also revised lower.

Switzerland reported May consumer prices earlier today. On the month CPI slipped 0.1% after a 0.9% rise in April. The year-over-year rate slipped to 1.1% from 1.4%. The 1.4% reading in both March and April was the highest since late 2008. In June 2009, the CPI rose 0.2%, so there might not be a significant change in the year-over-year reading this month, but look for more significant rise in July when last July’s 0.7% decline drops out of the year-over-year measure. Of course, this is not to suggest that Swiss inflation is a problem,. just simply looking at the math. Core inflation made a new low in May of 0.2% year-over-year.

In terms of the euro, the SNB appears to have purchased around 55 bln euros in the month of May. This is simply an incredible amount. Assuming that the SNB is QE is still operative and it is selling Swiss franc and buying foreign–primarily European bonds, consider that the ECB bought around 40.5 bln euros worth of European sovereign bonds in the secondary market. The time frames do not match up perfectly, but it would appear that the SNB bought more European bonds than the ECB itself.

Some observers ask, given the poor news stream emanating from the euro zone and the apparent lack of concern (except from time to time the pace of the move) by European officials, why is the euro not lower. Part of the answer, and admittedly only a part, is that there is a very large buying on the other side who does not seem to really have to mark-to-market like private sector do.

Read more: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/06/more-thoughts-on-switzerland-and-why-the-euro-is-not-lower.html#ixzz0qrpqZiaj

[Ghost Dog]

75. Greece Cut 4 Steps to Junk by Moody's on Economic Risks

Greece’s credit rating was cut four steps to non-investment grade, or junk, by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited the country’s economic “risks.”

The rating was lowered to Ba1 from A3, Moody’s said in a statement today from London. The outlook is stable, it said. Moody’s said the Ba1 rating “incorporates a greater, albeit, low risk of default.”

...

“This doesn’t look good and I expect another round of sell-off,” said Christoph Rieger, co-head of fixed income strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, Germany’s second largest bank. “A junk status means it will fall out of some benchmark indices. People who use those benchmarks are likely to sell.”

...

The government in Athens said the downgrade by Moody’s doesn’t reflect the progress it has made in reining in its deficit. The package announced by Prime Minister George Papandreou includes wage and pension cuts and tax increases that have prompted street protests and strikes, including one in which three people died.

“Today’s downgrade of the Greek economy by Moody’s in no way reflects the progress achieved in recent months nor does it reflect the prospects being opened up by fiscal adjustment and the improvement of the country’s competitiveness,” the Greek Finance Ministry said in a statement. “The Greek government remains absolutely committed to the task of fiscal adjustment and improving the country’s growth prospects.”

Moody’s said the “macroeconomic and implementation risks” associated with the EU-IMF support program “are substantial and more consistent with a Ba1 rating.”

‘Considerable Uncertainty’

“There is considerable uncertainty surrounding the timing and impact of these measures on the country’s economic growth, particularly in a less supportive global economic environment,” Sarah Carlson, vice president-senior analyst in Moody’s sovereign risk group, said in the statement.

“It’s a significant downgrade,” said Kevin Flanagan, a Purchase, New York-based fixed-income strategist for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. “It’s not a surprise to people, but the timing and magnitude is what has taken Treasuries off the lows and is providing some support.”

...

Moody’s today also downgraded its rating on the city of Athens to Ba1 from A3, citing “the uncertainties arising from current reforms on the city’s finances.” Athens and other Greek municipalities “are unlikely to have enough financial flexibility to permit their credit quality to be stronger than that of the sovereign itself,” it said.

/... http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-14/moody-s-downgrades-greece-to-ba1-from-a3-stable-outlook.html

[Po_d Mainiac]

37. Good quote...And I ain't a Soros fan

Let me briefly recapitulate my theory for those who are not familiar with it. It can be summed up in two propositions. First, financial markets, far from accurately reflecting all the available knowledge, always provide a distorted view of reality. This is the principle of fallibility. The degree of distortion may vary from time to time. Sometimes it’s quite insignificant, at other times it is quite pronounced. When there is a significant divergence between market prices and the underlying reality I speak of far from equilibrium conditions. That is where we are now.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/george-soros-we-have-just-entered-act-ii-drama-full-speech

[InkAddict]

41. The Fudge Factor - some get Brownies, some lick the bowl

some get sent to bed w/o dinner let alone dessert... YUP!

[ozymandius]

43. That is very accurate.

In a more rational world, the Stock Market Watch thread would probably sink like a chunk of lead. Volatility, evidencing a sore lack of equilibrium, creates the drama we have known so well over these years. This bidness should be as dry and boring as watching dust collect on furniture. Wildcat trading, bad economic policy, irrationality of markets and similar issues make the worlds of finance and economics fascinating for many who would never give a moment's thought to such things.

The divergence between market prices and underlying reality shapes the hideous image of our economic state. Soros speaks the truth. That is where we are now.

[Tansy_Gold]

52. wrong place

[TalkingDog]

65. It comes down to one sad fact: People are always will to let other people "think" for them.

Whether from essential laziness or from fear of failure all the way down to: Hey, we're primates, that's how we roll.

The Stock Market is the embodied manifestation of the collective hopes and desires of people who have been told that the way to live fully is to always exceed their grasp. "Live your id" has been the word of the day since just after the Enlightenment began, with little understanding of or reflection on the consequences of mindless, compulsive acquisition and consumption.

In a practical sense, you and I can only "be the change we want to see in the world", to paraphrase Ghandi. But even if we had the power to force our will upon people, the end result would be the same; someone would be thinking for them. We can try to lead people to self-awareness and, by extension, an awareness of how their actions impact the larger cosmos. And this, historically, has been met with varying degrees of success or non-success; depending upon how one defines martyrdom.

So sadly, as it stands, we have few tools with which to repair a broken culture and a broken system.

[Demeter]

40. Ozy, I Have Never Seen a Thread Unlocked Before Your Intervention

Is this as unprecedented as I think it is? Thank you all again for the rescue two weekends ago.

[ozymandius]

44. You're very welcome, Demeter.

Tansy gets credit too. I do not know how often threads are unlocked - but the fact that the moderators did so took me by surprise.

[Hugin]

49. Lacking any sort of explaination from on-high...

Generally speaking, from what I understand... Before a thread is locked a consensus has to be reached among the moderators and DU administrators as to what is to be done with a piece.

Most threads are a single topic thread built around a single OP. (and, yes, occasionally ill intent is a factor in starting a thread.) However, both WEE and SMW are widely understood to be Meta-threads which contain information of a economic or financial nature as well as opinion about those topics.

My personal feeling is that it would be difficult to justify the long term locking of a polyglot thread like WEE or SMW which are an aggregation of many pieces throughout the Internet. (with notable additions from the locals) It would be like locking LBN because you didn't like the breaking news listed there.

The content of the threads rarely violates any of the clearly stated TOS for DU. (Although, I'm sure there are those who would differ with my assessment. I would direct those who feel that way to the post above about how GS is feeling picked upon by the media.)

[Tansy_Gold]

53. I think there are enough of us regulars

to keep both the daily thread and the week-end WEE thread close enough to the top to maintain visibility, even if we just post local weather observations.

I think there are also a lot of lurkers who don't post but do read.

I also believe there are very few trolls who even dare to post here. Very very few posts are deleted. Trolls/disruptors/whatever are well aware that we police our neighborhood.

This may end up being one of those deleted, though for different reasons. There have been PMs and even some daring posts -- here as well as other places around DU -- that suggest there has been a change in the attitude of DU, that it is leaving behind its "underground" status and going more mainstream. Meaning, in plain English, that it is becoming (through a variety of tactics) more supportive of and less challenging to the Obama status quo.

I have seen tiny bits of what may be considered evidence along those lines, including the text of the post that announced the locking of the thread last week. On the other hand, the fact that the thread was indeed unlocked indicates the fear of wholesale mainstreaming is perhaps unfounded.

Truth is, though, I've just become a little paranoid.


And I was already a little

Tansy Gold

[Tansy_Gold]

55. Don't blame home ownership

thanks to Jim__ in the Economy forum

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x79572




http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-kuttner/dont-blame-the-dream-of-h_b_610594.html

<snip>
Here is a fable that is making the rounds. It is a collection of half-truths and outright lies:

The financial meltdown was the result of too many people pursuing the American Dream of home ownership. People who couldn't really afford to be homeowners became speculators. Government added to the damage with cheap mortgages, misguided laws such as the Community Reinvestment Act, and overgrown government-sponsored agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

This stuff is a staple of rightwing talk shows. In a moment, I will rebut each element of this storyline, but first I want to single out a wildly misleading piece by the New York Times financial columnist Joe Nocera. The piece, which ran in Saturday's business section, was titled "Wake-Up Time for a Dream."

The dream -- surprise -- is home ownership. It is depressing that a rightwing theme has invaded the mainstream Times.

Nocera writes, "The financial crisis might well have been avoided if we as a culture hadn't invested so much political and psychological capital in the idea of owning a home. After all, the subprime mortgage business's supposed raison d'etre was making homeownership possible for people who lacked the means -- or the credit scores -- to get a traditional mortgage."

Now this is just malarkey. And the Nocera piece is worth reading in its entirety to appreciate just how an influential financial columnist can get a critically important story so utterly wrong.

<end snip>




This touches on what I'm supposedly taking a week-end off to think about. ;-)



TG

[Dr.Phool]

57. Did you see Lewis Black on Comedy Central the other night?

Discussing the mortgage collapse.

Banker to homeless person living in box on grate:
"Hi there, we know that you can't afford to pay rent. How would you like a nice house"?

Homeless person:
"No, I don't think so. It's almost spring, and I really like it out here this time of year".

[ozymandius]

58. I'd love to catch that when it arrives online.

Lewis Black never fails to crack my ribs.

[ozymandius]

60. Hootin' and Hollerin' at 11:07

Dow 10,307.28 96.21 (0.94%)
Nasdaq 2,273.90 30.30 (1.35%)
S&P 500 1,102.96 11.36 (1.04%)

[ozymandius]

61. adding blather

10:30 am : The US Dollar has been in negative territory all session so far, but this is only providing price support to select commodities.

The weakness in the dollar index is benefitting the energy markets, which are some of the best performers in the CRB Commodity Index this morning. July crude oil has been steadily trending higher during the day's session. Crude hit new session highs of $75.99 per barrel in recent trade and is currently trading at $75.71 per barrel, up 2.6%.

July natural gas has been slightly volatile in recent action, but has also been in positive territory all session. AFter pulling back ~$0.08 near the $4.86 level, natural gas quickly rebounded back near today's session highs of $4.95 per MMBtu. Currently, the energy component is 2.7% higher at $4.91 per MMBtu.

Precious metals are mixed today despite weakness in the dollar index. August gold moved into negative territory just after 6:00am ET and hit fresh session lows of $1222.30 per ounce in recent activity. Currently gold is 0.7% lower at $1221.80 per ounce. July silver has been in the black all session, hitting new morning highs of $18.57 per ounce in recent activity. Currently, silver is trading 1.0% to $18.42 per ounce. DJ30 +74.52 NASDAQ +27.58 SP500 +8.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1884/416.1 mln/526 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2346/201.0 mln/489

[ozymandius]

64. Let's Name the Bankers and Make Them Famous

By Cenk Uygur at DailyKos
Mon Jun 14, 2010 at 04:47:27 AM PDT

John McCain said during the campaign that he would stop wasteful spending in government by naming names and making people famous. Well, that's a pretty good idea. So, we've adopted it (call us bipartisan). Except we're going to apply it to the bankers who took our money.

Last week we led a protest at the Treasury Department to demand that they get our $13 billion back from Goldman Sachs for the AIG backdoor bailout (read about the reason for the protest here).

On the same day, a Congressional report came out saying basically that we were exactly right. The Congressional watchdogs said that not only should Goldman not have gotten paid a hundred percent of their bets by the American taxpayer but that doing so " undermin(ed) the basic tenets of capitalism" and had a "poisonous effect on the marketplace."

But it's time to take it to the next step. The DC protest was just the beginning. Now, we've started a wiki protest. We want your contributions, ideas and actions in getting the money back. People have already started to put up the names and pictures of all the people who work at Goldman Sachs on the website. We also have many of the addresses for their offices. But we need more info. Please help us build this wiki protest by going to this link and taking part.

In its first year, Wikipedia was actually run by experts in different fields. The scholars put up a grand total of 12 articles that year. When they opened it up to everyone to contribute, they had the world's largest encyclopedia by the end of the next year. We hope we can do the same here with our wiki protest. I am sure that all of you will come up with better ideas and more effective actions than we could on our own. This way we just might get our money back.


Lastly, remember what Tim Geithner said at the time and continues to say to this day. He said that if we hadn't paid Goldman and the other banks for the side bets they made with AIG that the whole world economy would have collapsed. Well, luckily we're not on the edge of disaster anymore. Goldman made $25 million a day - every day - last quarter. And that was the bare minimum. They made more than $100 million 60% of those days. They're not on the brink of extinction anymore. In fact, they're making record profits. That's a perfect time for them to return the American taxpayers' money.

What a novel idea!

[MattSh]

66. Topic: Free market economy has failed the former Soviet states

With the collapse of the Soviet Union two decades ago, the newly-emerged independent states rushed to adopt capitalism and establish free–market system as quickly as possible. They believed it would pre-determine the economic growth and higher standard of living for everybody. The reality, however, turned to be far more complex. All former Soviet states experienced GDP fall and fierce inflation, income gap had widened substantially and many people fell below the poverty line. The apparent failure of capitalism in those newly emerged countries initiated discussions on whether the economic model of the free market capitalism itself was a flawed one. The debate over the topic has only intensified in the view of the recent global economic crisis.

Is the free market capitalism to blame for the economic malfunctioning in the former Soviet states? Do benefits of this economic system outweigh the costs? Could former Soviet states have been better off not adopting free market capitalism? Is it the best economic system currently available? The debate on these issues is ongoing.

Supporters of the motion argue that the experience of former Soviet states evidently demonstrates the inapplicability of ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach when it comes to the choice of the optimal economic model for a country. Free market capitalism may be good for some countries but absolutely detrimental for others. Prior to the attempts of replacing central planning with individual choice, one should ensure that stakeholders are ready for such a transformation. Post Soviet states were completely unprepared for capitalism. Privatization took place in societies with no managerial or organizational experience except for that acquired in the communist party apparatus, the KGB or the black market. Insistence by western advisors on rapid privatizations resulted in the stripping of assets from what might otherwise have been viable firms. Neither people were provided with time necessary to understand the implications of private property nor did the state have revenues to continue to support the social sphere in a time of transition.

Free market capitalism not only failed its promise to deliver higher standard of living but actually worsened the people’s economic security they had during Soviet times. Former Soviet states embraced free market capitalism since it was seen as a necessary liaison to the democratic government in achieving better standards of living. Instead, it brought the kleptocratic ruling elite that undermined democratic institutions and the rule of law in order to maintain its grip on the country’s wealth. Many of the post Soviet states did not have the political capacity to introduce a necessary system of checks and balances without which capitalism could not function in an ethical manner.

Furthermore, capitalism with its self-interest behavior is largely to blame for the recent world economic recession that has knocked flat most of the fragile new economies of the former Soviet states. Capitalism does not foster social responsibility. Countries adopting capitalism are likely to become vulnerable to any slightest regulatory failure. Furthermore, the more open an economy is the greater is the risk and potential damage of being affected by misconduct in partner-countries. The current crisis is just another sacrifice former Soviet states had to make in their zest to provide for intrinsically flawed model of the free market capitalism.

However, the opponents of the motion argue that free market capitalism is the right model for the former Soviet states with positive returns, however, yet to be seen. Capitalism, like democracy, can only be learned by doing, thus there was no possibility to avoid the disruptions of the rapid move to free markets and democratic elections. Post Soviet states are still suffering because they were rather misdeveloped than underdeveloped. Thus, the post Soviet economic and political transitions were not simply a matter of creating something new from scratch. These were about erasing outdated habits, perception, organization and governance styles that were inimical to the development of free market capitalism. Those old ways of thinking, acting and governing still prevent the fulfillment of the capitalistic economic model. However, adoption of capitalism paved the way for necessary improvements and provided people with much broader horizons and opportunities than they previously had.

Furthermore, by the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union there hardly was any viable alternative to a free market capitalism for most of the former member states. The command economy model, which had exploitation of the peasantry, the environment and resources at its foundation and which was sustained by foreign indebtedness in its last gasp, had been completely discredited in its collapse. The former Soviet countries did not actually bargain stability for opportunity because there was nothing to bargain about in the early 1990s in the first place.

The opponents also argue that financial crisis actually showed that it was not the economic model of capitalism that was flawed but rather its the implementation of it. Capitalism doesn’t exist in a vacuum but must be accompanied by effective governance. It was the failure of governments – in the thrall of those who have not read Adam Smith to the end and therefore missed the part about the need for regulation in a market economy. This has boosted the crisis. The recovery from the crisis demonstrates the basic resilience of capitalism when governments respond with appropriate policies.

The debate on the motion ‘Free Market Capitalism Has Failed the Former Soviet States’ will take place on the 15th of June 2010 in Kiev, Ukraine. The event is jointly organized by the BBC World, the Foundation for Effective Governance and London-based Intelligence Squared.

http://debaty.org/en/topics/kapital_ism.html

Well, I probably can't make it there tomorrow, but it's not surprising that people are asking these questions.

[Tansy_Gold]

67. The only thing that's surprising. . . .

is how long it took them to start asking.


kick




Tansy Gold

[Demeter]

70. Capitalism isn't for People

Capitalism is for Corporations.

It isn't surprising that people suffered under free market capitalism (another name for piracy, IMO).

[Hawkowl]

71. Free markets = Free reign of corporations

The main reason I left grad school in the study of economics, is the fact that all economists readily agree that THERE IS NO SUCH ANIMAL AS A FREE MARKET. Yet, they use a bunch of fancy mathematics to insist that the closer we get to having a free market the more "efficient" it is for society. You ask them what efficiency means and the closest you can get out of them is that it means total number of dollars. So if "free trade" capitalism yields a GDP of $100 Billion and it all goes to one person, it is a "more efficient" solution than $99 Billion than a well regulated economy that is distributed so that everybody gets a bit of the benefit of $99 Billion.

Modern economics, aka "the Chicago School", is not concerned with the quality of life of humans or other life, or income inequality, or anything else human. Modern economics is obsessed simply with increasing an abstract number to "prove" a fundamental group of assertions and assumptions that no way benefit humanity. Modern economists god is everything can be priced in dollars and an invisible being will determine how much everything costs. IMO it is the equivalent of medieval theologians arguing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

[TalkingDog]

78. Hmmm...my next bumper sticker. n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

72. treading water...

[Dr.Phool]

74. Cowzilla emerges from the gulf!