GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot

[robcon]

Source: Gallup

GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot
Republicans also maintain wide gap in enthusiasm about voting
by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. This marks the fifth week in a row in which Republicans have held an advantage over Democrats -- one that has ranged between 3 and 10 points.

The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup's history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats.

Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/GOP-Unprecedented-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx

---

We have to be on the OFFENSIVE this fall. Expose the GOP; hit 'em hard.

[Liberal_in_LA]

1. uh oh

[ixion]

2. I wish the Dems would stop playing softball to GOP hardball

because this is the result.

[RKP5637]

4. The messaging by the democrats is really really bad. I don't know who

controls the messaging, but it seems weak and ineffective. It has no punch to it at all IMO.

[ixion]

6. exactly...

they're either "moving forward" or "keeping their powder dry" or "attempting a bi-partisan solution" and it all adds up to them being perceived as weak and ineffectual.

[w4rma]

14. Rahm's crew and the DLC. Just protect the non-DLCers. Don't waste resources on DLCers.

They are the ones who are screwing us with this messaging.

[DeadEyeDyck]

21. Where is Rahm?

He has appeared anywhere for months!

[w4rma]

27. He's still Chief-of-Staff. It's just that he's as unpopular as Karl Rove or Dick Cheney. (nt)

[No Elephants]

53. Thank heaven for small favors.

[frylock]

20. the message is loud and clear..

if you're progressive, you will volunteer your time, donate your money, cast your vote, then kindly shut the fuck up because you ain't getting jack krap in return.

[No Elephants]

51. Maybe it's exactly as the people who control it want it to be?

Or maybe Republicans are just great at selling manure?

[BlueJac]

3. The Dems are the Fools on the Hill.......

get used to it they are fucking a lost cause and lost in space

[babylonsister]

5. And the people voting in these polls aren't? They're

voting against their best interests if the economy is a concern, but that doesn't seem to matter.

[DCBob]

8. So you prefer Republicans??

Some people are so short sighted its shocking.

[w4rma]

17. Maybe the fools on the hill need to stop calling their volunteers and voters retards and drug users.

I've been warning of this trainwreck ever since Obama picked Rahm for his Chief of Staff. Rahm and the DLC are working hard to recreate the 1994 electoral disaster, back when they controlled the executive office and passed 'free' trade and anti-gun bills, against popular opinion.

[DCBob]

23. I dont think that's the problem.. to me the problem is the economy and the media bashing..

Obama and the Democrats are getting non-stop 7x24. Eventually lies and exaggerations are believed if a person hears them repeatedly over and over.

[w4rma]

24. Well, I know that during the election I helped to protect Obama and his team.

And I know that I have had very few good things to say about him or his team, since he fired his progressive campaign team and brought Rahm and the DLC/GOP economic team that wrecked our economy into his administration.

I haven't seen a single progressive paid back with a political job for helping him get into office.

[DCBob]

28. I think Obama is still trying to be the transformational President this country desperately needs..

And to him that means governing from the center as much as possible and try to bring the country together. Obviously that hasnt worked.. yet. I dont think he is going to give up on it even it means not getting reelected.

[No Elephants]

56. Funny, I read "transformational" as "transitional."

Bringing the nation together does not mean morphing into a one-party system, with that one party being Pub Lite. Not when you won a decisive victory campaigining--against Clinton and Republicans-- on hope and change.

[DCBob]

90. Then you need reading glasses..

To many "hope and change" meant bringing the country together.. not forcing a liberal agenda on a large segment of the American public.

[sendero]

95. The country does not WANT..

... to be "brought together". Anyone could see that, but not Obama.

He's going to get the drubbing he deserves in November for being a pantywaist sop.

[fasttense]

94. This centrist, bi-partisanship is inappropriate in the face of vast crimes.

President Obama's constant move to the right or center is his way of trying to join or bring together Americans. The problem is Torture is Big F'ing Deal, Destroying the economy to enrich your friends is a Big F'ing Deal, Starting a war for political points is a Big F'ing Deal. You can not repair it without at least looking at it.

But Obama is pretending he doesn't see it and has allowed the criminals to get stronger, richer, and more powerful. They are so powerful now they may actually gain seats in the government they work so hard to destroy.

We don't need an appeaser, we need a fighter.

Americans can't hold the criminals accountable so they are going to hold their appeasers accountable.

[No Elephants]

55. Maybe it's not THE problem, but it reflect many problems, including

contempt for so much that classic or traditional Democrats have been assuming their party stood for, from economic policies to human/civil rights.


And, when your own Press Secretary and Chief of Staff rudely, brazenly and unapologetically insult your own base--and you don't seem disapproving, yes, it's A problem. And that will be more evident in 2012.

[RKP5637]

59. IMO the current democrats in DC, not all, but many have set the democratic

party back years. I have a lot of trepidation about Nov. and if the status quo pretty much continues I don't see a dem win for president in 2012.

The dem party had the majorities and IMO have squandered them and it really pisses me off. Also, the party leaders should be uniting the dems, not splitting parts of the party off as undesirable. That is stupid, dangerous and giving the elections away to the republicans. I don't think the spirit of the campaign for dems will be there in Nov. or 2012.

I don't think people are going to be climbing out of the woodwork to support the dems and Obama again. I find all of this quite sad.

I'm not bashing anyone, I'm just calling it as I see it and I know a lot of dems that feel pretty much the same. The current strategy sucks!

[Hawkowl]

71. I see a dem winning in 2012

Just not Obama. If the dems nominate a very strong partisan dem, not some weak kneed, milque toast, coward, then yes, the dems could win by a landslide in 2012.

I don't see Obama changing course on either the economy, or Afghanistan and consequently I see him pulling an LBJ and bowing out.

[RKP5637]

72. I don't think he's going to run either in 2012. Agree, we need a very strong

partisan dem. These are not Eisenhower republicans anymore. That era has long gone.

[Davie_Jones]

81. unintentionally true

I take it to mean you think Obama is getting slammed 24/7, and the GOP lies are finally getting traction. Quite the opposite. People have stopped believing the lies.

Our president has said one thing and done another for nearly 2 years. Even a synchophatic media can't cover over that long a time frame. People who don't pay much attention to politics notice he spent more time on the golf course during the gulf crisis than he did talking to the head of BP. This doesn't resonate with a self-description that he is "working hard", and so people begin to doubt his words.

No doubt much of what he says could be seen as merely putting the best fact on ugly facts - such as how the economy is doing. The real problem is the snowball effect. Once people start to think of you as untruthful, they start to doubt you even when you tell them the sky is blue.

Specifically, maybe that explains why 25% of Americans don't believe the president when he says he is Christian. More generally, maybe it explains why Democrats are facing a 10% deficit in generic polls.

[DCBob]

89. This post is full of RW talking points..

Welcome to DU.

[No Elephants]

54. That rhetoric is now in the dictionary under "shortsighted" "shoot yourself in the foot," and other

terms.

[DJ13]

7. Generic cons are easier to take than real ones with all their baggage

[No Elephants]

52. Excellent point.

A vote for a generic con says only, "I want something other than what I have now." IOW, it's a vote for "hope" and "change." All Republicans really offer, though, is "Back to Bush."

[Swede Atlanta]

9. There is no cohesion..........

The Democrats lack the cohesion and precision of the Repukkkes. The right wing has their talking points and they are highly disciplined. The Democrats appear like a bunch of schoolgirls at recess. There is no coherent Democratic message that is being hammered and hammered at every opportunity. The people are hurting and we are not conveying a realistic message of hope so the R's preach their salvation through tax cuts, Gods, guns and anti-gays. They are winning because there is no rudder in the Democratic party.

[Skittles]

11. "cohesion and precision of repukes" = goosestepping

[Amonester]

12. In 2006, they had one they hammered on and on, and it was like

vote for us, and we'll END THE WAR

too bad it's been what, 2010 minus 2006 = 4 years already, and THE WAR on taxpayers' sons, daughters, husbands, wives, mothers and fathers future has effectively ENDed, right?

too bad they can't hammer that one on and on again...

[w4rma]

16. Obama's administration called the Democratic base drug-addled "Professional Lefties" and retards.

That's really going to get us all fired up and protecting them!

[savalez]

22. ah... exaggeration anybody?

[w4rma]

26. I've heard no apologies for those words, so I would say that it isn't an exaggeration. (nt)

[savalez]

30. No apology is no reason to sensationalize.

[pattmarty]

40. Hey, the truth is the truth. Are you trying to say it never happened?

[No Elephants]

58. You're not gonna believe your own "lying" ears, are ya?

[pattmarty]

61. Hey No Elephants, howzit it goin'? I believe the only "good" news........

.............I might "hear" in Nov will be the passing of prop 19. All is lost and to quote a great drunk/doper, "we are all doomed".

[No Elephants]

57. Look up the direct quotes.

[Mojambo]

10. Forcing out Howard Dean for Tim Kaine was such an awesome idea! n/t

[wisteria]

34. Dean would not have been any help as chairman now.

This isn't about a 50 state strategy, but the economy and people being to impataint to wait for results. American's want instant change.

[Mojambo]

84. Dean would have been better on messaging than what we're getting now.

Kaine has been a fucking disaster.

[mzmolly]

13. Last week we were in a dead heat according to some polls.

eom

[onehandle]

15. Speaker Boehner. Prepare yourselves. nt

[iamjoy]

19. Impeachment, Prepare Yourself

oh, but that would be after they repeal Health Care reform. OR maybe not, maybe they'll just take out some of the measures to help make it affordable so it will be even more of a sweetheart deal for the insurance companies.

[unblock]

18. fortunately, none of the ballots in november are generic.

all snark aside, the "generic ballot" is historically one of the least predictive polls imaginable.
along similar lines, most people hate congress and most congresscritters but usually think THEIR congresscritter is doing a grand job.

[rayofreason]

31. Absolutely correct.

All politics is local. But when the local economy is bad, then the national becomes local. Still, race-specific polls are what should be watched, and those will start to come out before long.

[rocktivity]

25. .

:boring:
rocktivity

[farmbo]

29. Oh Really? Today's Newsweek poll indicates the opposite

http://nw-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/1004-ftop.pdf

(Scroll down to the end for the generic support question)

Among all Respondents: Rep 27% Dem 35% Ind 29%

Registered Voters: Rep 32% Dem 36% Ind 27%

It appears Gallop has pulled a Rasmussen :wtf:

[ThomThom]

32. The question is how will those idys go?

If progressives stay home the right wins. The administration should throw us a bone before it is too late. I keep saying this but they are not listening. In fact they spit in our faces. This is not good.

[cstanleytech]

36. What kind of "bone" do you think would be acceptable then that the republicans

could not then use to turn more voters to vote for them?

[ThomThom]

41. the least they could do is not call us names

as far as bones I'll wait and see... they could appoint someone we like for a change... reject someone like Simpson

[wisteria]

35. It is obvious the media wants to see the Repubs retake the house.

Most of them are doing all they can to create this outcome.

[Kablooie]

65. It is imperative that our government save Wall Street.

And the GOP is best prepared to do that by insuring the total shift of money from the American people to the top 1% of super rich.

[Davie_Jones]

82. consider the source

Wasn't this paper just sold for $1? This is a left-leaning news organization, that has little reputation to protect (as opposed to a professional polling organization whose reputation relies 100% on polling accuracy).

You are engaging in cognitive conformational bias, where you reject what is most likely truth and embrace what is most likely bias because it conforms to your preconceived ideas.

Question: Do you view yourself as an open minded person? If so, you may want to reconsider your answer.

[struggle4progress]

33. Let us remark that overall figures like this are entirely meaningless, since

Congressional campaigns are fought state-by-state and district-by-district

Hyping up enthusiasm for Republicans in Republican safe-seat regions, for example, can affect gross national polling results without necessarily implying any changes in the electoral map

I think polling agencies may release "results" like this simply as "teasers," to encourage potential clients to buy more detailed local information packages

[robcon]

37. I think we shouldn't whistle past the graveyard.

In some toss-up races, the 'nationalizing' of the issues/personalities of the contest could cost us some seats in the House or Senate.

That's the meaning of this poll.

[struggle4progress]

44. Despair and over-confidence are both to be avoided in campaigns. It is likely

that results this November will be determined by turn-out, and that means that what all of us do in the next two months probably matters quite a bit

Nevertheless, I think what I said above, regarding the meaning of such smeared-out national polls is entirely correct: congressional campaigns reflect the district and state, not the nation

[CBHagman]

46. And that's what it boils down to.

Congressional campaigns are fought state-by-state and district-by-district.

Exactly. Generic isn't the story here; it's what happens in the individual races. It's what happens with turnout, the quality of the campaigns, etc.

[MaeScott]

38. All stops pulled for depressing the Dem vote. Be aware that

Even the trusted polls are influenced by the flavor of the day and many lean right anyway.

No, we should not whistle past the graveyard, but be more aggressive in calling the rethugs out at every opportunity in our communities.

Stand up and vote for more better dems.

[yurbud]

67. ''more better dems'' I like that

[pattmarty]

39. I had thought up until I saw this that the Dems might hold the House.....

.........(barely) and the Senate maybe by 4 or 5 seats. This looks now (I know 3 months is a "lifetime") like we probably will lose the House and possibly the Senate. We are pretty much fucked on getting anything of a progressive nature done in his last two years. What a shame. The first black President with so much going for him, smarts, personality, beautiful family, what a fucking waste.

[sofa king]

42. But the thing is there is no "generic Repbulican candidate."

Instead, the GOP has to run a batshit-crazy asshole in every single state and district. Whenever the public gets to know their Republican candidates, the Republican lead quickly vanishes and reverses.

And the worst has yet to come for the GOP.

Seventy percent of the American people, including all Democrats and most independents, know for sure that President Obama isn't a Muslim and doesn't sympathize with the Taliban. One hundred percent of Republican candidates will have to line up on the other side of that statistic if pressed, or risk alienating their deluded "base," and more importantly their deluded benefactors. Together, those fools make up only 30% of all voters.

That's a wedge so simple a child could drive it between Republican candidates and the voters, with sixty full days to exploit it in excruciating detail. The trap is already baited, and GOP candidates won't be able to resist taking it.

[pattmarty]

62. Jesus man, I don't want to bust on ya, but look at Reid/Angle in...........

........Nevada, Bachmann in MN and Paul in Ky. Do you seriously think these people are going to lose JUST BECAUSE their crazy? Your Muslim thing doesn't cut it either when 30% STILL think he IS A MUSLIM. Fact is, we are going to lose the House, and the Senate we just might be able to hang onto by our fingernails. At this stage the way the Dems are is more like 1970's Republicans. What difference does it really make anyway? We got a shitty healthcare bill AND we're going to get fucked by Obama's deficit commission by a lame duck congress. Hope & change, I really don't think so. Better take of the blinders or you will be so overwhelmed in Nov you'll begin to consider suicide. Me, I'm thinking not of suicide, but of Spain.

[RKP5637]

74. Much as one of my friends said, we don't need to move out of state, it's getting so

we need to move out of the country.

[pattmarty]

76. Well, look at Germany after 1932. A lot of people left and also in...........

............the USSR after the split, zillions left. Now it's America's turn.

[sofa king]

75. Well, we shall see.

That 30% figure is easily explained by the 23% of all Americans who are right-wing authoritarians who believe what the Wurlitzer tells them, and the smaller percentage of people who lead them by the nose. They always come out to the polls in higher numbers than many other identifiable groups, and never vote Democratic. They are simply lost to us (but we have the unenviable task of having to look out for their interests in spite of themselves).

But that's not nearly enough for the GOP to succeed. For Republican success, the thinking two-thirds of American voters have to be cowed by fear, disgusted into staying home, distracted with independent candidates, and fed a steady diet of contradictory information so that they cannot make informed decisions. Without Karl Rove in the White House, they're not going to pull that off with the aplomb of previous election cycles.

Consider, for example, this latest bullshit terrorism scare, weekly stories of which are essential to Republican success. That story got traction for maybe two days before it was killed outright this morning by the Obama Administration explaining that it was all a mistake. Now, at midday on Tuesday, CNN is back to reporting on fashion shows.

Under Bush (Rove), that incident would have been a week-long voodoo doll shaking session. There would have been no backing off even as the facts stacked overwhelmingly against the party line.

Without fear and disinformation, the Republicans are going to have a much tougher job. I don't think they can do it. You seem to think they can. But neither one of us is going to make it easy for them by staying home ourselves, and neither will millions of others who have experienced personally what happens when those vultures are given control.

Good luck to all of us, eh?

[pattmarty]

78. Look, like I said, I don't wanna bust on you. But Gallup whatever.............

........anyone wants to say is a "fair" polling organization that has a name uphold. Point is we are going to lose seats which means it will be all the more harder to pass anything of consequence. My opinion is the reason is because of Obama being weak and not pushing or badgering the Republicans and the conservative Dems. I believe we are in for a really conservative swing in our politics and I hope I'm wrong. I want to be in a position of getting outa Dodge before the Brown Shirts start marching down main st.

[sofa king]

83. Well, if you find a place that'll take us, let me know!

I'm sure I'll be one of the first against the wall under a Palin/Beck Administration, so despite my optimism, I'm not above hedging my bet by having an escape plan.

[pattmarty]

85. Seriously man, there are places in the world that are politically...................

............stable and "reasonable" economically to live in. Spain, Portugal, the old "Soviet" eastern European countries, Italy, Greece. You have to look at the overall system. See, I'm 63 now and I have a small teamster pension and Early (62) SS. I have a small house that is almost paid for that I could sell for a few bucks and probably be able to live in a Spain, Greece or Italy reasonably comfortable. Now for me, reasonably comfortable means I got my (few) bills paid and have a couple of $$ left over, I really don't need a lot. My wife and I are now "toying" with it if shit gets worse.

[craigmatic]

43. They haven't even done anything to warrant this happening for them. It's not like

the bottom has fallen out for the dems in the last 2 weeks. This poll makes no sense.

[alarimer]

45. People are stupid if they think Republicans are actually going to do any good.

Of course we know the Democrats are useless, spineless weasels. If people would actually vote for some independents or third parties, we might actually see some improvement. At the very least it would put the major parties on notice that we know they are two sides to the same awful coin. Instead people waste their votes on Republicans, who will screw them even worse than Democrats will.

[krabigirl]

87. trust me, many people have their head in the sand.

[LarryNM]

47. How Many of These Polls

Are Making Opinion as opposed to reporting it? That said, the DLC/Establishment does not want and will not support progressive ideas and ideals.

[yurbud]

50. they would rather lose than bite the Wall Street hand that feeds them

[Kablooie]

64. You may have a point there. Damn. Why didn't a become a CEO?

[yurbud]

66. maybe that's what the middle class needs to do: incorporate and buy pols

[flyarm]

48. Take a look at Fla primary votes...and who showed up and who didn't!

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state/gop-gets-out-the-voters-could-this-be-884934.html

I do not think calling Liberals retards and Drug laden Professional liberals makes for one wanting to go to the polls..nor did stealing the Fla Primary in 2008!

Does not make for friendly bedfellows!

[DallasNE]

49. This Is All About The NYC Mosque Thing

And shows how playing the fear card works. But this issue will quickly fade out following the cabbie slashing in NYC and arson fire in Tennessee so I wouldn't dispair just yet.

[krabigirl]

88. well, what about Ron Paul's statement?

[TheWebHead]

60. the economic environment is too tepid to reverse this

likely the direction will continue to favor republicans and if the undecideds break, they'll break for the party out of power as is normally the circumstance. Barring some surprise event the house is lost and this continued trend could also put the senate in play. It could end up helping Obama with independents over the next two years though if he emulates Clinton after '94.

[DallasNE]

97. The Economic Environment Is Less Tepid

Than news reports would lead one to believe. A couple of weeks ago when the first time claims went up ny 12,000 the headline said the claims "spiked". The following week the claims went down by 31,000 and the headline said the claims "edged down". Beware MSM reporting. It stinks.

The Challenger and Gray report today said corporate layoff announcements in August were the lowest they have been in over 10 years. Frankly, I think many of these first time claims are census workers being laid off and that Friday's jobs report will again show the private sector added jobs.

[Kablooie]

63. They want GOP to win so in 2012 people will want Dems back again.

[RKP5637]

77. That's an interesting twist! 2 years of the R's back would definitely make most clamoring to

get the D's back in 2012.

[t0dd]

68. Gallup: Republican Congressional Ballot Lead Highest Ever

Source: TPM

Gallup is reporting that the GOP lead in congressional generic polling is now 10 points -- the largest lead for the party in the storied polling firm's history. The poll asks respondents which party they would prefer to see in control of Congress. Republicans now lead Gallup's generic ballot 51-41.

Gallup attributes the double-digit Republican lead in its latest polling to the massive GOP advantage in voter enthusiasm, a story we've been talking about all year. The newest Gallup numbers show Republicans with a staggering 25% advantage in voter enthusiasm. What does that mean in real terms? "Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be 'very' enthusiastic about voting," the pollster writes.

Gallup is one of America's oldest pollsters and has a long memory when it comes to political questions. Digging in its own archives, the pollster puts the month of August into historical perspective when it comes to the newest numbers:

The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup's history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats.

Read more: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/08/gallup-republican-congressional-ballot-lead-highest-ever.php

[get the red out]

69. Then I guess

We will all vote Republican in the next Presidential Election just to end the seemingly endless investigations that completely halt the United States Government.

[JCMach1]

70. If this holds, Obama will be very lonely in Washington next Spring

:(

The only consolation is there is a lot of time between now and Nov.

[Javaman]

96. Meh, get back to me in Oct. nt

[Plucketeer]

73. Truly amazing

This "throw the bums out" mentality, when the CAUSE of dissatisfaction with congress' performance rests soley in the laps of the GOP. How incredibly ignorant our general populace is. You can bet the average street Q&A sessions would yield great knowledge and insights into the Emmy awards, and little to NOTHING about who represents them in Washington DC.

[Evasporque]

79. the fix is on...nt

[Faryn Balyncd]

80. Repeal the FIX guaranteeing the GUTTING of SS would be a good start at demonstrating good faith &...

....the willingness to fight FOR the American people,

Such an action would energize the demoralized base rekindle a working contract with the besieged working & middle class.

The House has no business delegating to the Simpson/Bowles Commission the duty to craft legislation gutting SS while prohibiting any input or amendment from democratically elected representatives. This special rule was sneaked into the war funding bill in July and should be repealed. Coming on top of the betrayal of the "public option" this was a hugely demoralizing action.


:kick:

[krabigirl]

86. It is very scary out there.

I know my view isn't popular, but I honestly think the only hope is the huge backlash against the GOP in 2012. and there will be I think.

[ProudDad]

91. I guess it's hard to sell republican-lite...

when the "electorate" can have REAL republicans...hmmm? :shrug:

[lonestarnot]

92. sell is the appropriate fucking word.

[One_Life_To_Give]

93. 24 months ago GOP and Whig demise comparisons

Just 24 months ago the GOP was being foretasted to go the way of the Whig's. Destroyed by eight years of Shrub capping off failed policies of Repub Congresses. The American people wanted one thing fixed more than anything else and that was JOB's.
Sept 2008 unemployment rate rose to 6.1%, the highest level since September 2003.