North Korea may have new atom test to boost heir: South

[nadinbrzezinski]

Source: Reuters

SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea could conduct a third atomic test next year to boost the credentials of its leader-in-waiting, while prospects for bilateral talks with Seoul are slim, a South Korean foreign ministry report said on Friday.

The regular report from a ministry research institute was published a day after Pyongyang vowed a nuclear "sacred war" after the South vowed to be "merciless" if attacked, and held a major military drill near the border.

The North, which carried out nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, has yet to show it has a deliverable weapon as part of its plutonium arms program, but a third test would raise tensions further on the divided peninsula and rattle global markets.

Nuclear experts have also said they expect a third test soon, while South Korean media reported earlier this month that the North was digging a tunnel in preparation for one.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101224/wl_nm/us_korea_north;_ylt=AiLb5SJWtlGg.8OC7JA6NrIBxg8F;_ylu=X3oDMTJsYTRidnFtBGFzc2V0A25tLzIwMTAxMjI0L3VzX2tvcmVhX25vcnRoBHBvcwMxMARzZWMDeW5fcGFnaW5hdGVfc3VtbWFyeV9saXN0BHNsawNub3J0aGtvcmVhbWE-

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Yep, dynamic has completely changed

[iandhr]

1. Who is crazier?

Kim-Jong-il or Kim Jong-un

THE ONION says that "Kim Jong-un, heir apparent to North Korea's highest government post, expressed doubt that he was sufficiently out of his mind to succeed his father, longtime dictator Kim Jong-il."

While emphasizing that he was definitely completely insane and would likely be even less stable by the time he assumed power, the younger Kim nevertheless wondered if he could ever be enough of a lunatic to replace the most unhinged leader on the planet.'


http://www.theonion.com/articles/kim-jongun-privately-doubting-hes-crazy-enough-to,18374/

[David__77]

2. I do wonder if a truly insane person would be adept enough to maintain power.

There have been predictions of N. Korean demise for 20 years now, but there are really very, very signs of public discontent, or, perhaps more importantly, discontent in the ruling party/elite. There was the defection of Hwang Jang-yop in 1997, but I think this more of a sign of the shift from Kim il Sung to Kim Jong il than anything else.

They also do seem to adequately laying foundations for transition.

I would be unsurprised if N. Korea does not fall in ten or twenty years. That said, it is obvious there are systemic problems - huge ones - that could unravel the whole thing. The price of this happening would be great to the region and, possibly, the US as well.

[Posteritatis]

3. There was some public discontent loud enough that the outside world heard about it recently

That currency reform they tried to pull off recently - which amounted to confiscating 90% of most peoples' savings, such as they were - apparently actually led to some rioting in a few cities, which is a hell of a lot more protest than I figured North Koreans had in themselves by this point.

No idea about the upper echelons, of course, but there were noises of an attempted coup three, four years ago when Kim Jong-il was in China.