Majority Expects Obama to Lose Re-Election

[Freddie Stubbs]

Source: ABC News

A majority of Americans expect Barack Obama to be a one-term president, an assessment on which, in past elections, the public more often has been right than wrong.

Just 37 percent in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say they expect Obama to win re-election in November 2012; 55 percent instead expect the eventual Republican nominee to win. ABC’s George Stephanopoulos is asking the president about that result in an interview today.

It’s a challenging finding for the president because expectations can fuel voter enthusiasm – precisely the ingredient that led the GOP to its broad success in the 2010 midterms, when charged-up conservatives turned out while dispirited Democrats stayed home.

Democrats do expect Obama to win, but they say so only by 58-33 percent – a comparatively tepid vote of confidence within his own party. Republicans, by contrast, smell victory by a vast 83-13 percent. And independents – the linchpin of national politics – by 54-36 percent expect the Republican candidate to beat Obama.

Read more: http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/10/majority-expects-obama-to-lose-re-election/

---

[classof56]

1. Well, all right then. My money's on Chris Christie for Prez,

Rick Perry for veep. Our nation's future is secure!

:eyes:

[LynneSin]

30. Chris Christie won't even win his own state

just saying

[tomg]

41. You are dead right. He is

pretty unpopular in New Jersey. the problem is that the rest of the country doesn't realize that. And that seems to be the case with Republicans. To some idiots, they all look good until you have one of your own. Witness Rick Scott, Kasich, and Scott Walker.

[totodeinhere]

76. Wrong. The latest Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll has him at 54% approval and 36%

disapproval. I realize that this is just one poll but at least it should give you pause before you call him unpopular in New Jersey.

That result is much better than President Obama's approval rating in most polls.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/09/gov_chris_christies_approval_i.html

[LynneSin]

78. Yes because he did well during Hurricane Irene

Trust me, that'll go down in about 6 months. He's pissed off every union group in the state.

If the election was tomorrow you'd probably be right but it's over a year away.

[totodeinhere]

79. You might be right. Lets hope they don't have another hurricane next fall. n/t

[tomg]

87. Oh, Fuck, I have been out of the

country for the last few months ( also originally from NJ and don't live that far away). Last I looked he was sinking. Should have double checked the polls. Thanks for the update ( i think even though it depresses the shit out of me). Really? Jeeez.

[HowHasItComeToThis]

86. GEMS IN THE ROUGH ? Rick Scott, Kasich, and Scott Walker

IF YOU FOLLOW THE PROPAGANDISTS :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :puke: :spank: :spank: :spank:

[classof56]

42. Whoops! Forgot to use that sarcasm thingie.

Lord, I hope you are right about Christie, and I'd love seeing Perry go down in flames (with no fire dept around to put them out, since he cut their funding). As for me--I'm sticking with Obama, and since this is Democratic Underground, guess it's okay to say that!

Blessings!

[Name removed]

40. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[classof56]

49. And welcome to Democratic Underground.

Good luck finding those progressives that fit your standard.

[Dutchmaster]

52. Thanks.

[Devil_Fish]

61. For what it's worth, me too. I'm writing in Alen Grayson, and Al Frankin for VP. NT

[No Elephants]

73. If you are writing in, it's Al Franken. Some states are very picky about

write ins, disregarding unless you spell it correctly.

Some states count it as long as your intent is clear.

Personally, I would not write in, though.

[movonne]

47. This is all bull...they are taking away millions of votes for the dems

in many states...and they want us to think it is because Obama is unpopular...Don't trust anything the media puts out as they are the corporations and corporations befriend other corporations..

[Dutchmaster]

53. bad news. hate to be the one . . . Obama IS unpopular.

[Born Free]

59. Sad but true....

Obama was too concerned with making deals with the GOP then standing up and fighting for the average people, now democrats will pay the price; NO USA will pay the price.. Oh.. the democrats will still vote for him, but it will be like 2010 all over again. Meanwhile the GOP has these crazy right wing nut jobs running around and making a lot of noise so afterwards they can slip in right wing extremist and the average independent will think the extremest is a moderate - well maybe he is a moderate compared to the nut jobs. Yet the democrats continue to sit back in denial and say it can't happen.

[Bo]

91. Run Hillary Run

Anybody in DU that thinks Obama has any chance of winning is, as the sighn said a MORAN...lololololol
Bye Bye Obama

[Blue Owl]

2. Well if ABCNNBCBS says so, then it MUST be true

:sarcasm:

[Fearless]

3. Only possible by voter fraud.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

12. I would not be so sure about that

Obama has disappointed many, due IMO to excessive expectations. The malaise that is causing may sufficiently weaken his turn out, especially if the Repukes end up with a non-nut cases as their selections.

That means we need to work harder, not less to keep him as President

[Fearless]

24. We need to work hard on many areas...

Voter turn out will be a big one. Voter fraud. And getting Obama to be more vocal in calling out Republicans/supporting Democratic fundamentals such as SS/Medicare/Medicaid.

[Enthusiast]

28. Why do WE need to get Obama

to be more vocal in calling out Republicans/supporting Democratic fundamentals such as SS/Medicare/Medicaid? Unless the President was completely inept or actually wanted to lose the election he would be doing that already. Something smells to high heaven.

[Fearless]

69. Because Democratic special interests are a way to motivate the base.

Target one issue Democratic voters and hone your message to include them.

[Enthusiast]

88. The point is, if he

doesn't know that already the election is as good as lost. The President's advisors know that over 80% of the American people want to preserve social security and medicare.

[Fearless]

89. My point is that it is winnable if he listens to the people. Meaningfully.

[Enthusiast]

90. I'm all for President Obama listening to the people.

[Enthusiast]

27. Why won't the President drop the wildly unpopular

free trade deals?

Working class people from both parties are united against free trade deals. Yet the President, possibly on the advice of Jeffrey Immelt, is pushing three free trade deals right now. This will cost him thousands of votes in the crucial rust belt states. WTF?

[kenfrequed]

32. err...

Voter fraud was present in both of the last two republican "victories" and the GOP has already started vote suppressing tactics

[rfranklin]

46. It is "election fraud" that Republicans practice, not voter fraud....

voter fraud would be if I individually went to the voting booth claiming to be somebody else or voting in the wrong district intentionally like Ann Coulter.

[kenfrequed]

83. Sorry...

I meant election fraud. It is a horrible measure of the effectiveness of their propaganda machine when I find myself using their lutzian terminology. Damn it.

[spartan61]

4. This makes me sad because

if Obama loses his re-election bid, that means we will have a nutcase Gooper for the next 4 or 8 years and we can't go through another administration like the one we had for the 8 years of the bush years.

[sinkingfeeling]

6. It would probably be the last US President. I truly don't think there will be a country left if a

Republican is elected in 2012.

[Davis_X_Machina]

13. That's OK. That means they'll have ignored us for the last time.

Think of the message that will send.

Because politics isn't about politics. It's about feelings. And letting people know what mine are.

And I'm pissed no one's paying me, or my friends, any attention. Especially when we're so obviously right about things.

Why can't everyone else see?

[WhiteTara]

10. Don't be sad. Find a prgressive Dem and campaign

like your life depends on it. We need to take back the House and hold the Senate. That's troll propaganda to make you sad.

[Bandit]

39. IMO and I do mean my opinion ONLY I think Obama has no one to blame but himself..

If I wanted Republican Policies I would have voted for a Republican.. I still feel the same way so I just can't get enthused by Obama..

[FrenchieCat]

66. Might as well hang it up, cause the Supreme Court will be gone...

Me thinks Democrats rank and file buying into this bullshit are the true capitulators!

[sinkingfeeling]

5. Yeah, let's get this story started now. The media will have an entire year to work on it.

[Frosty1]

44. Subliminal messaging at its finest!

B-)

[CakeGrrl]

7. Not really meaningful when the MSM has been nonstop suckup to the GOP crazy.

Of course the GOP can't be stopped!

Well, it will be self-fulfilling if nothing is done about the threat of voter suppression and campaigning to show sane people that the GOP will end the middle class.

That, and defeatist Dems just sitting down and rolling over for the GOP by staying home. If people really don't care about being destroyed by that party, they can sure make it happen.

[zalinda]

19. Obama has been the one rolling over for the GOP

It has nothing to do with the dem voters. The young and the Independents stayed home in 2010.

But, go right a head in your little fantasy. The left has been yelling from the first day that Geithner and Summers were appointed, telling everyone that Obama was making a mistake. But the Obama supporters told the left that there was nothing to worry about. Now, that 2010 was a disaster, it's being blamed on the left. The politically aware left NEVER stays home, they always vote, in every election, no matter what.

Now the left are being blamed again, before Obama fucks up his chances in 2012. This is all Obama, his choices, his advisers. I don't really think he cares whether he gets re-elected or not. He has earned his place in history. And, when he leaves office, he can make millions giving speeches. Some times it even looks like he is deliberately trying to throw the race.

zalinda

[mazzarro]

22. Bingo!

Pleas from the progressive left since the beginning of the administration have been ignored or even derided by the administration and its supporters. Now it is beginning to dawn on everyone that the administration is trouble and unfortunately the rethugs are going to benefit from the stupidity of the democratic leadership and the tendency for their neo-liberal policies of the New Democrats and Third Way ideology which is more akin to the neo-Cons and rethug-lite ideology - a.k.a. Corporatism. Sad as it is, I am not overly surprised.

[Enthusiast]

33. Exactly correct.

Many refuse to see it. That is why I have little hope that Christie won't be the next president.

[HughBeaumont]

8. 55% of 'murkin's are fucking dumb as a post.

It's got nothing to do with "fed up", it's got to do with "you're as dumb as a fucking post" if you think anyone from the Repub Clown Car is better qualified to run a country over who we have in there.

As centrist as Obama is on issues that matter, I'd 4 million times rather have a centrist than a dumb fascist at the helm who makes George W look like a smart moderate.

[Enthusiast]

31. Excellent post. Especially this part:

"55% of 'murkin's are fucking dumb as a post." Because this is highly accurate. This is why the far right has waged a war on American education.

[Dutchmaster]

55. Anyone that disagrees with you is dumb as a fucking post eh?

Isn't that how the tea partiers see the world?

[HughBeaumont]

58. Anyone who thinks replacing a moderate centrist with a fascist and thinks things will get better -

Dumb as a fucking post. Has nothing to do with agreeing or disagreeing, but more to do with lack of critical thinking skills and involvement. Putting someone in office who goes along with every economic position that messed up this economy and snorts them with cocaine is not only stupid, but fatal at this point. Let's not even go into their social agenda.

[izquierdista]

60. Here are the choices:

(D) Someone who goes along with every economic position that messed up this economy OR
(R) Someone who goes along with every economic position that messed up this economy plus a hideous social agenda.

What'll it be be folks??

[Ter]

67. You misread the poll

55% do not want the puke to win. 55% THINK the puke will win. Nothing wrong with that, I partially think that. If the economy stays the sames or worsens by this time next year, he's not winning re-election.

[alp227]

9. thanks a lot, Mitch McConnell! n/t

[gateley]

11. George S mentioned that to Obama during the interview this morning --

and "are you the underdog now?". Obama said "absolutely". :(

[Iliyah]

17. Uh Huh

sure, majority of Americans, all 300 million. Everyday a poll comes out usually in the negative for Prez O. Jews, Blacks, Latino, women, young people, Whites, than a couple of days later or even a week, I'll read where He has not lost the Jews, nor the Blacks, nor the Latinos, women, young people and even the whites.

So who in the hell are they asking? Less than 1000 but more than 500 people who is speaking for me? I don't think so - LOL

Prez O is well on this way for a 2nd term no matter how the corporate media spins it, plus, the gopers are trying their damnest to redistrict, voter suppression, and down right trying to change the electorial rule to beat this man.

[ProSense]

14. The disclaimer at the end of the article:

<...>

The public does not always nail such prognostications, and with the election more than a year away – and the Republican contest still highly unsettled – much can change. In a New York Times/CBS News poll in March 1992, 76 percent expected the first President Bush to beat Bill Clinton. But Bush quickly lost support as the flush of success in the first Gulf War faded and economic discontent took hold, and Clinton unseated him.

Nonetheless, in November 1999, also in a Times/CBS poll, the public by 52-32 percent expected the eventual Republican nominee to beat the Democrat, as he did; in September 2003, the public by 50-35 percent expected Bush 43 to be re-elected, as he was; and in March 2007, 61 percent correctly expected the eventual Democratic nominee to beat the eventual GOP nominee.

The public's gut feeling is less of a gauge than how people will likely vote. March 1992 is equivalent to eight months before the election, and the public's gut feeling was wrong. Also, Bush had a little help winning in 2000.

[Dawson Leery]

15. Bush did NOT win the 2000 election either.

[zipplewrath]

85. What this says

The conclusion here is not that the "public is always right". The conclusion is that "if nothing changes" this is the way to bet. Much changed for Bush I between March and November. Conversely, not much changed for Bush II between Sept. '03 and the election. Nor for Gore between Nov. '99 and the election of 2000 (which was a contest between two non-incumbents so is of little comparative value, especially since Gore got more votes).

Something has to "change" for this current pole to become meaningless. For Obama, that probably means that unemployment has to get below 8% by next summer. Of course, it could also mean that the GOP could nominate someone distinctly less campaign savy than Bill Clinton. The former is unlikely, the latter is a distinct possibility. But if they nominate Romney, Obama could be in serious trouble.

[AsahinaKimi]

16. If Obama loses...

You can stick a fork in America. Its done for.

[Enthusiast]

34. It's done already.

That much is clear. One more war of greed.

[RaRa]

18. Not what some dude on MSNBC said

My mom watches MSNBC religiously and a while back there was some guy who has correctly predicted the winners for the past 30 or even 40 years (based on actual stats, not sticking his finger in the wind) and he points decidedly in Obama's favor. Interestingly, I don't know who he predicted in 2000. Let us hope he's right again; no matter how disappointed in Obama we may be.

[Dawson Leery]

20. Allan Lichtman is his name

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/30/never-wrong-pundit-picks-obama-to-win-in-2012

[Freddie Stubbs]

21. He predicted Bush would win on 2000

[Enthusiast]

35. Yet Bush lost.

[totodeinhere]

77. He lost but nevertheless he took office. So in a way he really did "win" because

he became president and Gore did not.

[RaleighNCDUer]

23. Obama will win, but mostly because of the dearth of credible opponants. nt

[Liberalynn]

82. +1

[Safetykitten]

25. Gee, who could of possibly foreseen this? Amazing surprise. Out of left field.

[McCamy Taylor]

26. Reagan was in the same position in 1983

[Dawson Leery]

29. At this point in 83', Reagan trailed every Democrats.

Obama still leads every Republican.

[totodeinhere]

80. Most polls have had Obama withing the margin of error vs Romney lately.

One poll last month even had him within the margin of error vs Paul. That's way too close for comfort for me.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

[Champion Jack]

36. The election is what? a year away?

Who gives a fuck about abc and their bullshit predictions?

[Prisoner_Number_Six]

37. He lost MY vote long ago.

And fuck the "hold your nose and vote for him" bullshit. It ain't flyin'.

[SoapBox]

51. okey-dokey...Enjoy your time under the Rule of the likes of Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Christie..

Hope you enjoy who ever the GOPBagger Dictator Supreme would end up being!

...seriously?

[FrenchieCat]

64. Then why in the fuck are you here? You evidently don't give a shit

about any of us. That's bullshit that needs to go.
We don't need folks that don't give a shit here.....
Y'all are dangerous to our future.

[callous taoboy]

75. Because it's called "DEMOCRATIC Underground."

Congratulations! You win the shallowest comment award for this thread.

I am a public school teacher and I am disgusted with the Obama administration's obfuscation when it comes to the future of public education and I may likely sit out this time around. As usual with Obama, he comes in at the last moment, he and Arne, to try to either fix or abandon NCLB. TOO GOD DAMNED LITTLE, TOO GOD DAMNED LATE. He's an appeaser, not a problem-solver.

[GreenStormCloud]

38. Intrade has his bid at 46.9. N/t

[FreeBillClinton]

43. ABC: stop wasting our time with this nonsense - there is no republican nominee yet.

[pasto76]

45. Great. If any of you screaming liberals think a different democrat will be in the WH, your NUTS

although I am beginning to think that maybe the screaming liberals WANT another 4 year (or eight) of a republican president, just so they can bitch and moan.

President Obama's Stimulus Bill has kept me working for over a YEAR. before that, I was 9 months unemployed.

YES, I want to see more.

FUCK NO, do I want to see another republican president.

Some of you better start thinking very hard about the alternatives.

[creon]

48. When is the election?

The election is Nov 2012.

[SoapBox]

50. Ah yes...the LimpStreamMedia, has already decided that it does not want him...so,

they are gonna push this story line.

Just like Brain Washing! Like the GOPBaggers and their Uneducated Ilk, the more
you repeat the lie, they more it becomes fact.

[kayakjohnny]

54. Notice the big fat no by line on that story.

That should tell you something right there.

[underpants]

56. MSM has been trying to get this over with for 2 years

I can't remember that question ever being asked before.

[No Elephants]

74. I was thinking the same thing. I can't remember it, either.

Just asking it and then publicizing the poll results plants the seed, though, doesn't it?

I think polls this far out are trying to SHAPE public opinion, not gauge or measure it.

[Demeter]

57. Obama's Worked REALLY Hard for that Loss

It doesn't matter, really. He got his.

[emulatorloo]

62. Wait, the election was held already? I missed that . . .

[FrenchieCat]

65. Personally, I think you worked harder still......

and aren't finished quite yet, I take it.

[Hardrada]

68. He'll be on some nice boards and get big speaking fees

and join his fellow knaves like Tony Blair.

[geek tragedy]

63. He is the underdog--the odds are stacked against him. nt

[ellisonz]

70. Fired Up! Ready to Go!

:woohoo:

[No Elephants]

71. Meaningless. Way too early.

I think Obama will win, but, regardless, "way too early" is the truth.

[BlueIris]

72. I hope the WH is paying attention.

It is time to step aside, Sir. Make way for someone else you know can win, because he hasn't (completely) sold out, still has some credibility and will have no fear of beating the crap out of the Republican nominee.

[progressoid]

81. And only 39% of Americans believe in evolution

We're dumbfucks.

[kenfrequed]

84. This is a BS survey

They have tried all kinds of surveys to try to make it look like President Obama is in trouble. Any way they slice it they have had to juggle the numbers, weight the results, or modify the sampling methods to use actual questions to make it even look close. The facts are that his polling numbers are actually better than Reagan's and Baby Bush's during the same part of their presidency.

The polling numbers on the Republicans in congress are about 10 points below the Demmocrats in congress which are about 10 points below President Obama's. Not a single republican candidate running right now is polling that closely to Obama and the republicans establishment is doing everything in its power to nominate a candidate that is doomed to anger their base, the teahaddists, and the religious fanatics. Though I suppose Romney will win Utah fairly handedly.