Romney surges ahead in New Hampshire, new poll shows

[oberliner]

Source: CBS News

A new Harvard and St. Anselm poll shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney ahead of his nearest competitor by 18 percentage points in New Hampshire, the first primary state, and it reveals support for Texas Gov. Rick Perry dropping precipitously.

Romney was favored by 38 percent of likely Granite State voters in the Republican primary, ahead of second-place Herman Cain, the former the Godfather's Pizza executive, who got 20 percent. Libertarian Rep. Ron Paul placed third with 13 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich came in fourth with 5 percent, and Perry and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman tied for fifth place with 4 percent each.

The poll results were especially dismal for Perry, who just a few weeks ago was tied with Romney for front-runner status, but whose fortunes have declined with a string of weak debate performances. The results also confirmed other recent surveys showing Cain gaining strength, although he was once dismissed at having no chance in the Republican primary field.

Huntsman has made New Hampshire the focus of his campaign, saying he must win there to be competitive, but the poll shows him making little traction despite repeated visits to the state's towns and hamlets. The survey also confirmed the downward spiral of Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann since winning the Iowa GOP straw poll in August, although she has not targeted New Hampshire as intensely as Huntsman. Bachmann got just 3 percent support from likely GOP voters.

Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20118172-503544.html

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I think this is good for the President.

Romney will be another McCain, hopefully with the same amount of electoral success.

[Kennah]

1. Romney has the best chance with the sane GOP votes, from the last century

[oberliner]

4. What do you mean by that?

Is he the most "sane" of the GOP candidates in your opinion?

[Kennah]

7. Meant to say sane voters

Sane GOP voters from across the country could probably fill a library conference room.

By sane I mean the really fiscally conservative folks. Center right, not bat shit crazy.

[alp227]

19. based on what i know about romney's record i doubt he really has fiscal conservative creds

as governor of massachusetts, he started SOCIALIZED MED...oops, this is DU?...I mean universal health care...and even raised fees/taxes thus keeping up the "Taxachusetts" reputation. You'll find plenty websites bashing him as "Commie Romney" or "RINOmney". However, in 2006 Mass. had a .

And given the recent dust-up at the values voter summit over Romney being Mormon again he might lose some evangelical votes. Romney also supported same sex civil unions, another factor that might challenge him w/social conservatives.

[Mass]

2. Whoever wrote the headline is an idiot. Romney has been ahead in nearly every single NH poll

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

[oberliner]

3. Perry's drop is interesting

In that sense, his lead over Perry is "surging" in this poll.

[Mass]

14. No drop in NH, except if you consider Rasmussen.

What is more interesting is Cain's surge in the two latest polls.

[oberliner]

17. Yeah - what's up with Cain?

How do you explain that one?

[McCamy Taylor]

5. I could have told you this a decade ago. New England loves New England. This is so not news.

[oberliner]

6. Do you have any predictions about who the eventual nominee will be?

And who you hope it will be (if anyone)?

[NutmegYankee]

8. Agree. Only 2 percent of the Tea party membership is located here.

Southern "blue dog" Democrats and New England Republicans are basically identical.

[Art_from_Ark]

18. So does that mean that a Lincoln Chaffee

is roughly the equivalent of a Blanche Lincoln?

[Rozlee]

9. Romney'll crash and burn in the South.

Unless he gets a really howling-at-the-moon veep candidate, which might alienate several voters in the general election. Jewish voters, Hispanics and other minority voters dropped their support for McCain by the droves when Palin was selected, especially in critical Florida.

[oberliner]

10. Who do you think will be the nominee?

Is there someone you think will win it?

[Rozlee]

11. Tough One.

It'll probably be out of Romney's hands. Look how McCain picked an outsider like Palin who wasn't even vetted. Those guys were impulsive and didn't even think things through. My guess is that they haven't learned a thing since. I'd go for another outsider that's a teahadist mouth frother.

[On the Road]

12. Did Perry Do THAT Bad a Job in the Debates?

I'm actually a little shocked that he's dropped so much. Seems like exactly the kind of candidate Republicans take a shine to.

[Muskypundit]

13. Perry basically said that

people who wanted to exterminate immigrants dont have a heart. That in itself is enough to kick you out of the race nowadays in the ole GOP.

[On the Road]

15. Really? Is That It?

Wow.

[Muskypundit]

16. That not exactly what was said

The basic gist of it was that immigrants are people too, and anyone who denys them human rights has no heart.

[Ter]

20. It's not good at all

Good for the President would be Bachman or Palin. Romney would do far better than McCain. Hell, even McCain himself would do better. At that time, we all hated Bush and wanted a Democrat and change.

[No Elephants]

21. No surprise. Romney was Governor of New Hampshire's next door neighbor. I think

he and his family may have a second (or third or fourth) home in New Hampshire, too.

So, (a) name recognition, plus (b) the devil New Hampshire know is better than the devil New Hampshire doesn't know....yet.

I would not make very much of this, one way or another.

[struggle4progress]

22. If this is their field, I can't see the Rs holding together their crazy-quilt coalition in 2012:

for years, they've cultivated an evermore incoherent bundle of libertarian millionaires and millionaire-wannabees, religious fundamentalists, anti-feminists, racists, and other extremists

Reagan's combination of friendly-old-uncle acting and political experience got him elected, and the elder Bush's lifelong rolodex of contacts propelled the younger Bush into office

But this is a strange field. Lots of people don't want another crazy rightwing Texan, with a big hatful of ideology and no real skill riding; the racists won't support Cain, who's a political neophyte in any case; the anti-feminists won't support fruits-and-nuts Bachmann; and Romney, who looks to be the nearest thing to a real candidate they can offer, will have problems with the Southern fundamentalists, of the wrong religion and moreover the former governor of that damn liberal yankee state

No wonder they're trying to suppress the 2012 vote