STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, October 20, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, October 20, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 19, 2011

Dow 11,504.62 -72.43 (-0.63%)
Nasdaq 2,604.04 -53.39 (-2.05%)
S&P 500 1,209.88 -15.50 (-1.28%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.17 +0.01 (+0.32%)
30-Year Bond 3.19 +0.01 (+0.35%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 12

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Last reports of the week

Oct 20 08:30 Initial Claims 10/15 400k 403k 404K
Oct 20 08:30 Continuing Claims 10/08 3700k 3690k 3670K
Oct 20 10:00 Existing Home Sales Sep 5.10M 4.92M 5.03M
Oct 20 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Oct -5.0 -8.8 -17.5
Oct 20 10:00 Leading Indicators Sep 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/10/17-21/#ixzz1bJo0LaVh

[Roland99]

27. Weekly jobless claims fall 6,000 to 403,000

[Roland99]

28. Four-week claims average also declines to 403,000

[Roland99]

29. Continuing claims drop by 7,500 to 3.72 million

[Roland99]

37. Oct. Philly Fed 8.7 vs. -17.5 in Sept.

[Roland99]

38. Sales of existing homes fall 3% in September

[Roland99]

39. U.S. leading indicators climb 0.2% in September

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil falls below $86 amid weak US economy signs

SINGAPORE – Oil fell below $86 a barrel Thursday in Asia as further evidence of weak U.S. economic growth undermined the 19 percent gain in crude prices over the past two weeks.

Benchmark crude for November delivery was down 54 cents at $85.57 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract, which expires later Thursday, fell $2.23 to settle at $86.11 in New York on Wednesday.

Brent crude for December delivery was down 5 cents at $108.34 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange in London.

Crude rose above $89 early in U.S. trading Wednesday, but reversed sharply amid concern the U.S. economy remains wobbly. The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" showed only a slight increase in consumer spending last month while the economy expanded modestly in the Fed's 12 bank regions.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

23. Paid $3.30 last night

Up 15 cents from the lowest price locally in far too long...

[happyslug]

41. In Johnstown Pa it is holding at $3.55 a gallon, through Pittsburgh it is $3.45

Generally Johnstown is about a Nickel more expensive then Pittsburgh, do to being both a smaller market AND being at the end of the Mississippi River transport system (Most Gasoline comes up the Mississippi, then the Ohio, then to Pipelines, then by Tanker trucks to your local Gasoline Station, thus Gasoline is Cheaper the closer you get to New Orleans once you deduct the State Gasoline Tax which varies by State).

Pennsylvania State Gasoline tax is 32.4 cents per gallon, Michigan is 40.8 cents per gallon.
http://www.commonsensejunction.com/notes/gas-tax-rate.html

Thus most of the difference in price is tied in with how far up the Mississippi/Ohio the Oil had to go as opposed to the lower taxes in Pennsylvania compared to Michigan.

Side Note: While most Oil/Gasoline in the Midwest of the US goes via the Mississippi/Ohio River system, Michigan may get its Oil/Gasoline via the ST Lawrence Seaway via refineries in New Jersey as opposed to Louisiana and Texas. Given that such larger Tankers are more efficient then even the most efficient pipeline (And about the same cost as a River Barge), that could be the reason for the lower prices in Michigan then Pennsylvania.

[AnneD]

43. Changing over ....

to the winter blend no doubt.

[Demeter]

45. They've never made a big to-do about that change

I wonder why not.

[happyslug]

49. Depends on the Area, Pittsburgh uses a Summer blend, Johnstown does not

And the cities are only about 70 miles apart (Depends on the beginning and starting points).

Google says 67 miles Amtrak Station to Amtrak station, Amtrak says 78 miles. So which route you take is also a factor.

But the key is Johnstown does NOT change its blend of Gasoline, but Pittsburgh does and that switch has little to do with the price of Gasoline in most years.

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Advance; EBay Declines, American Express May Move

U.S. stock futures rose, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will pare yesterday’s decline, as investors awaited earnings from AT&T Inc. to Eli Lilly & Co. and further details on the euro area’s bailout fund.

EBay Inc. (EBAY) dropped 3.9 percent in German trading after the largest online marketplace forecast sales and profit that missed some analysts’ estimates. American Express Co. (AXP) may be active after reporting better-than-estimated results.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in December gained 0.4 percent to 1,212 at 5:55 a.m. in New York after the benchmark measure lost 1.3 percent yesterday. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures expiring the same month climbed 47 points, or 0.4 percent, to 11,491.

“We are stuck in the risk-on, risk-off roundabout that won’t get resolved until Europe shows some sort of clarity,” George Godber, a London-based fund manager at Matterley, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “You have to accept we are in a volatile market.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-20/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-ebay-shares-decline-in-germany.html

[Po_d Mainiac]

35. eBay needs to get back to its roots

Keep the fixes that have protected both buyers and sellers, but trash their 'store' concepts, and the foriegn garbage that's over-running some categories.

Keep the 'free' re-listing feature for sellers that catch bids on most of their offers, and start charging those that don't. That alone wood bring back the 'huge lawn/tag sale' premise that gave the site appeal.

[DemReadingDU]

4. What happened to Festivito and the daily debt reports? n/t

[xchrom]

6. & p-o-d-mainiac? where has he been?

i get worried about people when they don't show up.

[Tansy_Gold]

20. Po'd has been around, but i was thinking the same thing

about Festivito this morning as soon as I went to SMW.

:hi: x

[xchrom]

5. morning -- the thought to turn on the heat occured to me this morning.

:donut:

[DemReadingDU]

10. I turned on the heat yesterday, it's been raining and was cold.

[xchrom]

13. i'm not a fall winter person.

i dislike using the heater -- but i don't do cold very well.

[DemReadingDU]

17. winter is the worst

but the rest of the seasons are ok with me
:)

[xchrom]

18. I hear ya about winter.

I wanna skip through not fall on my ass in the snow.

[Tansy_Gold]

21. Yeah, I hate winter, too.

You know, those two weeks or so in February when my defiance of the weather isn't sufficient and I just can't wear sandals and shorts. :hide:

Snow and ice and mud and mosquitoes are some of the main reasons I left Indiana 26+ years ago. Never a single day of regret.

It was 94 here yesterday afternoon.




TG, who actually got her first email from the Pinal County Democrats yesterday; she didn't even know there were any!

[xchrom]

22. you just reminded me -- i need new shoes for the winter.

winter isn't bad here in durham -- but there's a lot more of it than there was in the bay area.

:hi:

[Fuddnik]

30. What is this "winter" you speak of?

:evilgrin:

I think it got all the way down to about 65 last night!

[Tansy_Gold]

33. 6:10 a.m. and 65 here in the shadow of the mountain.

But it's definitely fall here. the license plates have started to change color.

[AnneD]

42. You mean....

you don't have to use your oven mitts as driving gloves now. :hide:

[Demeter]

46. How is the water situation down in the heart of Texas, AnneD?

Could I ship you some?

[AnneD]

48. It would be welcomed...

We had 3 days of rain this month, no where near the inches that we are accoustomed to or need.

I still see the long trailers hauling hay to this are.

[Demeter]

24. Michigan was flooding last night

and it was a paper route night, of course...I'll have to put on new shoes, as the old ones are wet, as is the first rain coat...


This is a drive-by post, again. Having a very busy and unproductive week. Had to resort to the Doc's cure-all, even. Chocolate wouldn't cut it.

[Po_d Mainiac]

25. That sounds like a typical summer day up heyuh! n/t

[xchrom]

34. there you are!

:hi:

[Roland99]

32. we finally turned off the A/C and opened the windows!

:)

[xchrom]

7. Markets skeptical over euro debt crisis response

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/W/WORLD_MARKETS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-10-20-06-11-38

LONDON (AP) -- Seesawing expectations of this weekend's summit of European leaders remained the main driver in markets on Thursday, with investors growing skeptical again about governments' ability to agree on a strategy to deal with the debt crisis.

Though stocks in Europe fell following an earlier retreat in Asia, the losses were limited as investors weigh every rumor and report about the likely make-up of a deal that may emerge at the Sunday meeting.

On Thursday, concerns resurfaced that discussions over expanding the bailout fund, recapitalizing the banks and the terms of a second rescue package for Greece are proving more difficult than expected. France, Europe's second biggest economy, is thought to be wary of committing too much money in case it loses its cherished triple A credit rating.

Over the past few weeks, stocks recovered a chunk of their losses for the year on expectations that the 17 countries that use the euro were preparing a three-pronged solution to the debt crisis. That would include measures to boost the firepower of the bailout fund, a recapitalization of a large part of the banking sector and a plan to get the banks to take a bigger hit on their Greek debt holdings.

[xchrom]

8. asia: China to allow trial use of local government bonds

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_CHINA_CREDIT_CRUNCH?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-10-20-06-38-19

SHANGHAI (AP) -- China has given the go-ahead for several local authorities to sell bonds as it moves to bridge financing shortfalls and prevent debt defaults by overextended provinces.

The Ministry of Finance said in a notice Thursday that Shanghai, Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces and Shenzhen, a special economic zone bordering Hong Kong, would be allowed to issue three-year and five-year bonds on a trial basis, subject to quotas.

China normally prohibits local governments from issuing bonds directly or from taking bank loans, confining such bonds to those issued by the central government on their behalf.

Local governments owe about 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion) in debt through financing vehicles set up mainly to support construction projects. Issuing bonds would help them to honor those obligations.

[xchrom]

15. BOJ chief sticks to recovery view amid euro debt worries

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/20/uk-japan-economy-idUKTRE79J19F20111020

(Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Thursday that solid growth in emerging markets will continue to underpin Japan's economy, suggesting the central bank will stick to its forecast of a moderate recovery when its board meets next week.

But he reiterated that the BOJ will "act appropriately" by closely monitoring the economic and price outlook, a sign the central bank is ready to ease monetary policy further if risks from abroad threaten to stall the upturn.

One concern for the Japanese authorities is that the yen's persistent strength, driven by investors' flight to the safety of liquid, low-risk assets, will choke off one vital source of economic growth -- exports.

Such worries spurred plans for a joint government-central bank task force that will monitor and coordinate steps aimed at tackling the yen's strength and helping to cushion its economic impact, according to a draft plan obtained by Reuters.

[xchrom]

36. China's stagnation not an option

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MJ21Ad01.html

The 21st century is often hailed as China's century. Indeed, after centuries of exploitation, abuse and impoverishment, a great resurgence of international acclaim and respect for the country is perhaps well deserved. While the country triumphantly marked last week's centenary of the 1911 Xinhai Revolution that overthrew the Qing Dynasty and led to the establishment of the Republic of China, inexorable challenges remain that raise questions over which direction the great nation is headed.

Even the current leadership in Beijing recognizes a critical need for reform. Incumbent Premier Wen Jiabao has gone as far as to say current economic policies are unsustainable, and has emphasized a need for political reform. This point has been promoted by several overseas China analysts since the rise of the


People's Republic to economic prominence.

Three major recommendations seem to be ubiquitous: first, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) should make a serious effort to breakup the state monopoly; second, Chinese industries must better safeguard the environment; third, relations with the United States need to be vastly improved.

At the Global China Summit at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington DC on September 27, 2011, Daniel Rosen, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that people are far too distracted by China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the amount of debt owed by the United States. He pointed out that China is not heavily involved either upstream or downstream along the value chain of the global economy.

[xchrom]

40. Social housing in China No way home

http://www.economist.com/node/21532334

IF THERE is one thing that annoys the man on the Beijing omnibus, it is the cost of housing in China’s cities. By unofficial estimates, the average price of a flat in the capital has risen between five and ten-fold in the past decade. So Li Keqiang, who is likely to become China’s next prime minister, is trying to show his mettle by sorting out the problem. Under his direction, local governments have embarked on a campaign to build unprecedented quantities of social housing for the urban poor. Officials have been claiming a spectacular success, but persuading citizens to share their joy is proving another matter.

Pressure from Mr Li looks, on the surface, to be paying off. Official statistics suggest that in recent weeks, local governments (not normally known for their enthusiasm for spending money on the poor) have been racing to meet their quotas for the year. On October 10th the central government declared that a target of starting work on 10m social-housing units this year was 98% complete. In September alone, work began on 1.2m units—more than twice the number of private homes America began building last year.

The central government is not just trying to woo the poor. It also sees the project as a way of pepping up the economy at a time of global gloom. This year’s target represents a 70% increase in the construction of social housing compared with 2010 (see chart). In March the government announced a goal of completing 36m units by 2015. If three people on average live in one flat, this would be the equivalent of building new housing for the combined populations of Britain and Poland.

[xchrom]

9. The 1% Ain't What It Used To Be

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/10/the-1-aint-what-it-used-to-be/247011/

Unsurprisingly, Occupy Wall Street have pushed income inequality to the center of the national conversation. Also unsurprising, I think, is the unspoken assumption that income inequality has continued to get worse since the crisis. After all, where are the bankers panhandling for change or standing in line at the food pantry?

But it would actually be quite surprising, if true. The massive, decades-long data set assembled by Piketty and Saez seems to show that income inequality falls during recessions, and particularly during prolonged crises. Crises destroy capital, and top incomes tend to be more tightly linked to capital than those of average workers. If you work for a wire factory that goes bankrupt, you may well have a rough year or two before you find another job, and your income may never fully recover. But if you own that factory, it will be years before you have an income even close to what you enjoyed before--and it's very possible that you'll never get there at all.

Note that this is not an argument about who suffers more during a recession; it is self-evident that a worker who loses a third of their $20,000 annual paycheck is much worse off than an owner who loses two thirds of their $500,000 annual draw. But the measured gap between their incomes will still shrink dramatically.

That's why I was surprised, two years ago, when census data seemed to show that income inequality had continued rising. However, I filed it under "maybe this time is different" and didn't really revisit the subject.






*****university of chicago:eyes:

[Demeter]

26. Bernanke and Geithner's Printing Press Did the Job

They are supporting paper assets via currency debasement. No billionaire has been left behind.

Of course, commodities are being pushed to new heights at the same time, ensuring that the inequality gap continues to report a healthy growth.

[JDPriestly]

31. Looks like the top 1% is repeating the trajectory it experienced

during the great depression. It is very similar.

I was born in 1943. The years of great prosperity and economic and social progress for everyone were those in which the income differential was the lowest.

This chart gives me hope actually. Maybe we will return to a sane society in which people are more willing to share.

I remember the Marshall Plan and CROP, a program through which farmers donated excess food to the poor in other countries.

[xchrom]

11. europe: Big British Hedge Fund Takes Aim at the States

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/19/big-british-hedge-fund-takes-aim-at-the-states/

Founded 230 years ago near the banks of the Thames, the Man Group has transformed itself from a British barrel maker to a rum merchant to a $70 billion money manager dominant in Europe and Asia.

Now the company, the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund, is looking to conquer the United States, the world’s largest hedge fund market.

To attract American investors, the firm is expanding its product lineup, building up its local sales force and striking distribution deals with brokerage houses like Morgan Stanley. The domestic team, once scattered between three offices in New York, is also consolidating its operations in a newly renovated building on the edge of Bryant Park in Manhattan.

“From time to time, we hear the question. ‘Why should Man be in the U.S.?’ ” Manny Roman, the firm’s chief operating officer, said in an investor presentation last month. “And the reason is because the U.S. really, really matters to us strategically. There is about a trillion dollars of hedge fund money in the U.S.”

[xchrom]

12. Moody’s Downgrades Spain’s Biggest Banks

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/20/moodys-downgrades-spains-biggest-banks/

Pressure continues to mount on European banks as the credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded several of Spain’s largest financial institutions.

Moody’s cut the ratings by one notch on five banks, including Santander and BBVA, the country’s biggest banks by market capitalization. The others include La Caixa, CaixBank, and Confederación Española de Cajas de Ahorros, or CECA.

All the banks have been placed on negative outlook.

The news comes two days after Moody’s downgraded Spain’s sovereign debt by two notches to A1 from Aa2 with a negative outlook.

[xchrom]

14. FTSE down, investors tentative ahead of weekend summit

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/20/uk-markets-britain-stocks-idUKTRE79J1E720111020

(Reuters) - Britain's FTSE 100 fell by midsession on Thursday, as uncertainty over plans to rescue the euro zone shrouded the outlook for equities, with financials and commodity stocks bearing the brunt of the selling.

A split between the International Monetary Fund and the European Union is threatening to delay Greece's next aid payment in another blow to European efforts to stem the debt crisis.

That followed the admission by French President Nicolas Sarkozy that plans to tackle the euro zone debt crisis had stalled, ahead of this weekend's European leaders' summit.

The UK's benchmark .FTSE was down 34 points or 0.6 percent at 5,416.83, off the intraday low of 5,363.16, as U.S. index futures pointed to a firmer opening on Wall Street.

[xchrom]

19. Public debt problem must be solved, says Santander chief

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/english/Public/debt/problem/must/be/solved/says/Santander/chief/elpepueng/20111018elpeng_7/Ten

Banco Santander Chairman Emilio Botín on Tuesday came out strongly against the "indiscriminate" recapitalization of European banks and insisted that the core problem remained the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis.

In a speech delivered to an international banking conference, Botín acknowledged that some banks might need more capital because of their exposure to Greek government debt or because of the crisis in general.

"However, there should not be obligatory, indiscriminate recapitalization of the European banking sector without resolving the problem of public debt once and for all," he said.

"Casting doubt in a general manner on the sustainability of public debt or of the European financial system may bring us to a ceaseless downward spiral of sovereign debt and banking crises," Botín added.

[xchrom]

16. PRECIOUS-Gold flat; doubt on Europe plans weighs

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/20/markets-precious-idUKL3E7LK02I20111020

SINGAPORE, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Gold struggled to recover from
the previous session's losses on Thursday, as mounting
skepticism over whether the euro zone will be able to produce a
concrete plan to tackle its debt crisis and a weak U.S. economic
outlook weighed on market sentiment.



FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was flat at $1,641.29 an ounce by 0031
GMT, headed for its biggest weekly loss in four weeks with
prices down more than 2 percent so far this week.

* U.S. gold GCcv1 edged down 0.2 percent to $1,643.

* Efforts to secure a deal to tackle the euro zone debt
crisis are stalled over methods to increase the firepower of the
region's bailout fund, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on
Wednesday.

* The U.S. economy outlook grew dimmer in September, leading
businesses to be wary of spending and of building up inventories
ahead of the holiday sales season, said the Federal Reserve.


* Exchange-traded commodity products and mutual funds saw
outflows quicken last month as a number of markets suffered some
of the largest losses since the financial crisis, Lipper data
showed on Wednesday.

[Demeter]

44. The Confidence Fairy is Grounded Due to Unfavorable Flight Conditions

As in, both Europe and Asia have looked Reality in the face and fainted. (I'm sure the rain and wind don't help).

Does anybody actually buy those unemployment numbers anymore? Apparently not.

Just another hit and run post, to assure myself (at least) that I'm still alive and somewhat functional....

[AnneD]

47. For all you cubicle rats......

This might amuse you. What percent of the 99% are you.

Of course it does not consider your location and the associated living expenses but.....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x2153186



I came in at a respectable 77%. The fact that we live in Texas and we work hard to keep our expenses down means that I have a little change in my pocket after I pay the bills.

[bread_and_roses]

50. "Not with a Bang, but a Whimper: Bank of America’s Death Rattle"

I can't read this - it's wayyy to dense for me - but thought some here might find it interesting:

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/10/19-5

I did manage an R this AM before I had to get going.

What will tomorrow bring?