STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 4 June

[ozymandius]

Friday June 4, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 234
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 175 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 228 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 442
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 925
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Jeff Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 3, 2004

Dow... 10,195.91 -67.06 (-0.65%)
Nasdaq... 1,960.26 -28.72 (-1.44%)
S&P 500... 1,116.64 -8.35 (-0.74%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.71% -0.02 (-0.38%)
Gold future... 388.90 -3.60 (-0.92%)


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GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg - Is Something Fishy?

MOST RECENT NASDAQ RALLY FUELED BY TRIPLE Q ACTION
Is Something Fishy?

About three weeks ago, it looked as if the Nasdaq was going to break the neckline of a complex head and shoulders pattern to the downside. That would have resulted in technical damage too much for a world of chart watchers to ignore and not act upon by selling. But at the very moment when it appeared as if the Nasdaq was in severe technical peril, an apparent large buyer of the QQQ index stepped in and saved the day. As is usually the case when a head and shoulders neckline is whipsawed, this was followed by a sharp and tradable rally. Tonight I would like to explore this recent trading action in depth. Is there a defensible “conspiracy theory” affecting recent market action?

Speculative Nasdaq Leadership Now Lags Larger Nasdaq Stocks

The war rally off of the March 2003 low was led by the more speculative names within the Nasdaq index. As shown in the long-term chart below, a comparison of the relative performance of the entire Nasdaq (which includes the smaller and more speculative names) to the Nasdaq 100 (or $NDX which includes only the largest 100 companies in the Nasdaq) indicates that the entire Nasdaq outperformed the largest 100 from the March of 2003 to late January of 2004 apparent top. This is in sharp contrast to the late 1990’s timeframe that led up to the March 2000 bubble top. At that top, the Nasdaq 100 had leadership, and then it lagged after the market topped and then plunged. Now, as illustrated in the chart below, the ratio’s 50 day has crossed the 200 day moving average to the downside, indicating that the more speculative Nasdaq names are now lagging the Nasdaq 100. The Rule of Alternation suggests that the market usually doesn’t act the same way two times in a row. Can the Nasdaq continue its rally with its leadership coming from its “blue chips” as it did prior to March of 2000, or will we need resurgence in leadership from its smaller speculative stocks for the rally to continue? Or (as I think) is the Nasdaq rally on its last legs? Let’s look at some more recent comparisons of the Nasdaq 100 to the total Nasdaq.

-cut-

Finally, note that the Nasdaq 100 trades in a liquid fashion via the index-traded Amex-listed QQQ shares where over 110 million shares typically trade in a single day. The trading in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ-shares) has been disproportionately high compared to the volume of the entire Nasdaq over the last few weeks. Is this an aberration, or is there some other fundamental reason why this is occurring?

Is Something Afloat?

Am I suggesting a “conspiracy theory,” or is the trading action on the QQQ’s just an aberration? Does the market suddenly favor index funds more so than it did just a few weeks ago, or are the Q’s merely a trading vehicle for organized market manipulation? Can markets be manipulated over the short, intermediate, or even long term? Are they being manipulated now?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

10. what's with that QQQ?

9:15am 06/04/04

[QQQ] NASDAQ 100 TRACKER UP 35 CENTS AT $36.33 IN PRE-OPEN

[Frodo]

13. Intel and Semiconductors.

And all those Nasdaq "investors" who STILL think the tech sector is going to make them rich.

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning all.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

The in-laws are in town over the weekend. So I will not be around much.

Now looking at the futures, I see that we may end this week in traditional Friday fashion (going up) probably until late afternoon. Would I be chagrinned if the market were to be bled of gains during the last hour of trading? Not really. But then this is Friday: the day when weekend exuberance frequently takes hold of traders and those "anonymous" white elephant entities of which Martin Goldberg notes in the WrapUp.

Que sera, sera.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.05 Change +0.10 (+0.11%)

http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/funds/newswire/2004/06/03/rtr1394165.html

Dollar may not get much help from U.S. jobs report

NEW YORK, June 3 (Reuters) - Even if Friday's U.S. jobs report comes in much stronger than expected, any boost for the dollar is likely to be short-lived unless there is a marked improvement in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, currency analysts say.

The prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the end of this month has already been factored into the foreign exchange market, they say, and much of the support the dollar derived from that has already waned.

"Sentiment has soured with terrorist attacks, Iraq prison abuse" and President George W. Bush's slipping popularity in public opinion polls, said Jeremy Fand, a trader with WestLB in New York. "Evidence of this is that good U.S. data has not been met with any sustained dollar strength," he said.

The dollar has fallen about 1.3 percent against the euro since the strikingly strong April employment report was issued on May 7. The U.S. currency gained during the weeks following the report of 288,000 new non-farm jobs but has subsequently embarked on a downward course.

Economists forecast a gain of 216,000 U.S. non-farm payroll jobs for May and for the jobless rate to stick at 5.6 percent. A report in line with expectations would underscore the U.S. labor market's strength relative to Europe's.

<snip>

"Risks are skewed against the dollar," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist with the Bank of New York. "A number south of 100,000 would be negative for the dollar as it would further substantiate recent data (signaling) that the Fed need not rapidly raise interest rates to curb an overheated economy," he said.

A weaker-than-expected gain in nonfarm payroll jobs could dampen expectations of rate increases, putting a drag on the U.S. currency.

Since mid-February, when the dollar sagged to record troughs against the euro, the currency has been buoyed by the prospect of rate hikes. That is because the anticipated Fed decision to raise rates above their 46-year lows of 1 percent has put upward pressure on yields, making U.S. assets more attractive to foreign investors.

<snip>

In Friday's payrolls report, "Anything less than 150,000 (jobs gains) and we see the euro at $1.25 very fast," said WestLB's Fand. Conversely, "Above 275,000 to 300,000 gets the U.S. dollar moving higher," he said.

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/106910/content.asp?menu=forecasts&dia=462004

DAILY CURRENCY FORECAST

We prefer selling euro again today targeting 1.2150/1.2080. But watch today’s Asian market was completely muted, confusion and directionless mood prevailing among traders ahead of US Non Form Payroll due @ 12:30 GMT. Any figure +300 is going to be positive for the Green Back, anything less than 300 will pull dollar down as dollar negative sentiment already exists. So during European trading euro pair may rise till 1.2260/65 (see 1 hour raising trend channel). Whatever it is any close below 1.2240 today is crucial on weekly charts.

...more...

Oh, the handwringing! Oh, the dilemna! Will the job numbers come in supporting the "recovery"? Gack! That would mean an interest rate hike! Oh, NO! Whatever shall they do?

Tune in at 8:30 EST and we shall find out ....

(Don't you just love cliffhangers?)

Enjoy your in-laws, Ozy :D

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

4. U.S. May nonfarm payrolls up by 248,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38142.3545717593-814997542&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The U.S. economy created 248,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, the Labor Department estimated Friday. The unemployment rate remained at 5.6 percent while the participation rate remained at 65.9 percent. Economists were expecting payroll growth of about 220,000. Payroll growth in April and March was revised higher by a total of 74,000 jobs. Over the past three months, 75.4 percent of 278 industries have added workers. The average workweek stayed at 33.8 hours for the fifth month in a row in May. Total hours worked in the economy increased by 0.3 percent. Average hourly pay rose 5 cents or 0.3 percent. Wages are up 2.2 percent in the past year.

[UpInArms]

5. YeeHaw! Here's some more about those jobs!

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=5346075

Jobs Growth Unexpectedly Strong in May

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers added an unexpectedly large 248,000 jobs in May, according to a government report on Friday that confirmed a strengthening economy likely to soon bring higher interest rates.

The May tally exceeded Wall Street expectations for 216,000 new jobs and followed an upwardly revised total of 346,000 jobs in April and 353,000 in March. The 947,000 jobs created in the March-May period made it the strongest for any three months in four years.

The cascading evidence of accelerating economic activity is certain to reinforce expectations that Federal Reserve policymakers will ratchet U.S. interest rates up from current 46-year lows when they meet June 29- 30 and may prove a boon to election-bound President Bush.

The unemployment rate remained at 5.6 percent in May, unchanged from April.

Virtually every major sector of the economy added jobs in May, from retailing to construction industries. Particularly notable were 32,000 new hires in manufacturing -- a fourth straight monthly increase and the biggest for any month since August 1998 when 143,000 manufacturing jobs were created, the department said. (note: I wonder if the new manufacturing of burgers is affecting this number?)

Nearly 1.2 million jobs have been added since the start of the year, adding fodder for a campaigning Bush to blunt Democratic criticisms fueled by the slow recovery from the 2001 recession. (note: Would anyone consider this a "partisan shot"?)

[Frodo]

7. The amazing part to me...

... is how often we've been seeing "highest in four years"

Can anyone remember what was different between four years ago and now??? lol.

[UpInArms]

8. Agreed.

The things that they cite either take us back to RayGun's term or are spun to show that everything is better since the Clenis left the WH.

:D

[UpInArms]

6. Dollar rally fizzles as job data hold few surprises

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38142.3775462963-814998268&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar reversed to trade lower against its major counterparts following an initial spike higher on upbeat U.S. jobs data. An analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago said the statistics, while pointing to a strengthening job market, weren't robust enough to justify new territory for the dollar, which had already gained in anticipation of a strong report. The move higher instead inspired some large dollar-selling and euro-buying transactions ahead of the weekend. The U.S. economy created another 248,000 jobs in May, while the jobless rate held at 5.6 percent. Both figures matched or were roughly in line with market expectations. The dollar was down 0.5 percent against the euro, at $1.2271 per euro. The greenback fell 0.6 percent at 110.58 Japanese yen per dollar.

Well, the dollar shot up to 89.47 and within five minutes was back down to 89.06

It's pretty hard to sustain a dollar rally when the interest rate hike of 0 is already factored in. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

9. Dollar is very upset by employment numbers

Last trade 88.55 Change -0.40 (-0.45%)

Settle 88.95 Settle Time 23:35

Open 88.98 Previous Close 88.95

High 89.47 Low 88.55

[Frodo]

11. But the market would seem not to be.

S&P and Nasdaq up almost 1%.



And hasn't gold seemed strangely disconnected from the dollar these last few days?

[UpInArms]

12. Market Numbers at 9:46 and blather

Dow 10,271.98 +76.07 (+0.75%)
Nasdaq 1,985.04 +24.78 (+1.26%)
S&P 500 1,124.58 +7.94 (+0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 4.718% +0.006

9:40AM: Buyers hit the ground running with an encouraging mid-quarter update from Intel (INTC 28.23 +0.82) and a strong May employment report to lift their spirits... The unemployment rate held steady at 5.6% (consensus of 5.6%), average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (consensus of 0.2%) and nonfarm payrolls jumped 248K (consensus of 225K) - the latter (along with recent gains) effectively recouping all of the jobs lost since November 2001... Crude oil has also cooperated with the bulls this morning, falling an additional $0.68 to $39.28/bbl after OPEC increased output yesterday...

Europe is trading in similar fashion following the positive developments, the bourses showing gains of 0.4-1.0%...

9:14AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +8.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.5. Stage remains set for an advance at the open as the futures market retains the bulk of its gains... Look for the tech sector to lead in the early action, with the semiconductor shares at the helm following INTC's update.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +8.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. Futures trade continues to strengthen and suggest a rally at the start of trading... The impressive job growth seen in the May employment report, the bullish mid-quarter update given by INTC last night, and the recent drop in the price of crude oil have all contributed to the upward bias.

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.0. Futures market works its way higher (1 point for the S&P futures, 3 points for the Nasdaq futures) on the heels of the better than expected May employment report... Nonfarm payrolls grew by 248K (consensus of 225K) and April nonfarm payrolls were revised higher to 346K...

Dollar healing a bit

Last trade 88.84 Change -0.11 (-0.12%)

[UpInArms]

14. Bush officials trumpet job gains

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38142.4105092593-814999108&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- President Bush's top three economic aides trumpeted news from the Labor Department that the U.S. economy added nearly 250,000 jobs in May. "Today's employment report demonstrates, beyond a doubt, the broad-based strength and continuing momentum of the U.S. economy," Treasury Secretary John Snow said in a written statement. And Commerce Secretary Don Evans said "a wakeup call has been sent that the United States economy is back," while Labor Secretary Elaine Chao said "the president's economic policies are improving the lives of millions of Americans." So far in 2004, the recovery has seen the creation of about 1.2 million jobs, or an average of 238,000 a month, after shedding 2.7 million between March 2001 and August 2003.

[UpInArms]

15. Maytag cuts 20% of salaried workers

http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/04/news/fortune500/maytag.reut/

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Maytag Corp. announced a major restructuring Friday that would include trimming about 20 percent of its salaried workforce and bringing its Hoover brand together with other brands in an effort to improve competitiveness.

The company also cut its earnings expectations for the second quarter and the full year. Newton, Iowa-based Maytag said it expects to save $150 million annually from the restructuring, which it expects to complete by the end of 2004. It will also record charges of $75 million to $100 million for severance charges and asset writedowns.

...more...

[Frodo]

16. I always thought I would have been insulted to work there

what with all of their commercials making it look like they don't have to work because the machines never break.

[UpInArms]

17. Market Numbers at 11:08 EST and blather

Dow 10,258.08 +62.17 (+0.61%)
Nasdaq 1,986.79 +26.53 (+1.35%)
S&P 500 1,124.60 +7.96 (+0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 4.749% +0.037

11:00AM: Equities continue to trade just off their highs of the morning - albeit ones set within the first 10 minutes of trading... The indices have not moved meaningfully higher since then, but at the same time, their ability to retain those gains speaks to the lack of concerted selling in the market... Investors have taken comfort in a number of strong fundamental developments this morning (Intel's guidance, the May employment report, the decline in crude oil prices), temporarily putting aside their fears about the heightened interest rate environment...

Briefing.com believes the investing environment may be shifting away from a fear of rising interest rates, to an acknowledgement that many of the developments within the economy and corporate America are positive... For more information on this, be sure to visit Page One... NYSE Adv/Dec 1936/965, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1866/882

10:30AM: The broader market edges slightly higher as the majority of sectors remain in the green... Retail, biotech, transportation, drug, financial, and tech are all trading comfortably above the unchanged mark, with the only notable laggards being homebuilding and energy (the latter off the continued decline in the price of crude oil)... The bond market has posted losses across the yield curve following the impressive May employment reports and the implications it carries for a Fed tightening...

The Fed fund futures now price in a 54% probability of a 50 basis point increase, and an over 100% probability for a 25 basis point rise, at the FOMC's next meeting June 30th...NYSE Adv/Dec 1899/857, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1720/895

[UpInArms]

18. Market Update and blather at 11:58 EST

Dow 10,248.85 +52.94 (+0.52%)
Nasdaq 1,983.90 +23.64 (+1.21%)
S&P 500 1,123.41 +6.77 (+0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.740% +0.028

11:55AM: The market has taken a break from its usual preoccupation with interest rates, and has rallied in a broad-based fashion this morning... A number of positive fundamental developments have been behind the move, with the most striking being the strong May employment report... The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6% (consensus of 5.6%), average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (consensus of 0.2%), and nonfarm payrolls grew 248K (consensus of 225K)...

The combination of the latter plus April's upward revision to 346K from 288K effectively erased the jobs deficit left from the recent downturn (starting November 2001)... Armed with further proof of a thriving labor market, the major indices soared at the open and have not budged much since then... Tech has been a favorite target of buyers, following Intel's (INTC 28.24 +0.83) upbeat mid-quarter update last night... The semiconductor company narrowed its Q2 (June) revenue outlook to $8.0-8.2 bln from $7.6-8.2 bln and raised its gross margin target to 60-61% (plus or minus a couple of points) from 60%... In addition to technology, brokerage, biotech, transportation, and drug have also been at the front of the advance...

The only area to lag behind has been energy, and that has been the result of the $0.83 plunge in the price of crude oil (to $38.45/bbl)... OPEC's decision to increase output by 2 mln/ barrels a day yesterday continues to drive down the price, and have arguably constructive implications for the broader market...

11:30AM: Buyers remain in firm control of the proceedings with the major indices sporting gains of 0.6-1.2%... Tech has been the standout sector of the session, with a plethora of sub-groups (software, semiconductor, networking, disk drive, computer hardware, internet) climbing 1% or more... Electronic manufacturing service has been probably the largest gainer following Flextronics's (FLEX 17.14 +0.72) mid-quarter update last night... The name maintained its Q1 (June) profits outlook, and then said profits and sales in the second half of the year should exceed forecasts...

CEO Michael Marks said 'I'm feeling pretty bullish about things across the spectrum'...NYSE Adv/Dec 2109/869, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2018/820

Have to sign off for a while - life is intervening and if you need to check the markets (if the charts fail or you're curious), you can go here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Have a Great Weekend Marketeers! :hi:

(edited to add some more blather)

[UpInArms]

19. numbers and blather at 1:21 EST

Dow 10,281.99 +86.08 (+0.84%)
Nasdaq 1,992.17 +31.91 (+1.63%)
S&P 500 1,127.28 +10.64 (+0.95%)
10-Yr Bond 4.748% +0.036

1:00PM: After trading in the same range for most of the session, stocks break out, aided by a breach of the major averages' early week/recovery highs... Just about every sector has found buyers and marched even higher - with the exception of oil service (although it has moved off its lows)... The indices' ability to retain most of their gains in the early trade, although with their move through several key resistance points, have invited more buying interest in the afternoon...

As it stands now, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are poised to close higher for the week - marking their second consecutive week of gains...NYSE Adv/Dec 2289/839, Nasdaq Adv/ Dec 2100/884

12:30PM: Indices work their way higher, breaching their best levels set early in the session... Market internals remain positive and supportive of the buying drive... Presently, 26 of the Dow's 30 components are showing gains and keeping the blue chip average implanted in positive territory... One of the 4 issues to buck the trend is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 56.50 - 0.09)... The drug company's rival in the drug-eluting stent race - Boston Scientific (BSX 43.12 -0.58) - reported preliminary May US sales of $157 mln...

The company's Taxus stent continues to claim over 70% of the US market, leaving Johnson & Johnson's Cypher with a smaller chunk of the pie... NYSE Adv/Dec 2090/982, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1990/950

just a quick pop-in and post :D

[ozymandius]

20. Final numbers

Dow... 10,242.82 +46.91 (+0.46%)
Nasdaq... 1,978.62 +18.36 (+0.94%)
S&P 500... 1,122.50 +5.86 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.77% +0.06 (+1.32%)


Have a great weekend!

Ozy :hi: