WASHINGTON – After a week in eclipse as the nation mourned President Reagan, Campaign '04 has returned in full force. TV ads are back up, money is being raised, and the candidates and their surrogates are back on the stump. With 4-1/2 months to go until election day, analysts say President Bush and his Democratic challenger, John Kerry, face both starkly different and similar tasks: President Bush needs to quell public doubts over his handling of Iraq and the economy, and present a clear vision for a second term. Senator Kerry, faring better in polls against an incumbent elected president than any challenger in decades, remains ill-defined to about a third of the public - and, in the eyes of some Democrats, also has yet to present a clearly articulated plan for the nation's future.
But in the end, it is Mr. Bush who faces the more difficult task. "Kerry is simply the default option," says political analyst Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia. "If this were an open-seat race, I'd call it for Bush right now.... Kerry lacks appeal on a personal level. But this isn't about him. If people reject Bush and don't want him to serve again, Kerry is elected. Period. Bush is right on the edge."
The next month will tell the tale, he and other analysts say. During this period, Mr. Kerry will name his running mate, a moment of crystallization for the Democratic ticket and the anointing of another important surrogate campaigner for Kerry. In addition, the June 30 deadline for the US turnover of Iraq to local control will pass.
"Either things will start to improve
or they won't," says Professor Sabato. "There has to be fairly steady improvement that is noticeable by Labor Day, the traditional start of the campaign. No one's going to believe a lull in fighting in October."
http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0615/p01s02-uspo.html
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