Tight group of swing voters could decide presidency

[CShine]

Just over four months from the US presidential election, the contest is boiling down to a scrap for an unusually small pool of swing voters who tend to be more moderate and weary of partisan bickering. Two surveys this week show that 21-25 percent of voters had not decided between President George W. Bush and his Democratic challenger John Kerry, or had chosen but could change their mind in the neck-and-neck race. This was significantly down on the figure for the 2000 election when about a third of the electorate was still undecided or changable by June in what turned out to be an excruciatingly tight contest between Bush and Al Gore. Political analysts generally agree that three years of Bush's unabashedly conservative policies and aggressive pursuit of his war on terrorism have left little neutral ground in the American political landscape.

"President Bush polarises the electorate in a way that really no president has since Richard Nixon," said Eric Davis, professor of political science at Middlebury College in Vermont and an expert on White House elections. "This time around voters really have their minds made up; they are either for Bush or they are against Bush," Davis said. "And it's much more for Bush or against Bush than for Kerry or against Kerry."

In 19 so-called battleground states, 22 percent of the electorate is uncommitted, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center. It said the group of "potentially pivotal voters" represented just nine percent of the national total. Pollsters said the swing voters tended to follow the campaign less closely at this stage. They include many independents, are more moderate in their opinions and hold generally positive views of both candidates.

If blatant propaganda devices such as Michael Moore's scathingly anti-Bush film "Fahrenheit 9/11" are likely to fire up Democrats ahead of the November 2 election, analysts said it might have little affect on the uncommitted. "They don't like this polarizing debate that you see in Washington a lot. So as a result they may be turned off," said Carroll Doherty, editor for the Pew survey group.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1506&ncid=703&e=7&u=/afp/20040626/ts_alt_afp/us_vote_swing

[historian]

1. dont listen to these so called experts

they have to fill the airwaves with their constant blather - each person makes up his own mind at the end, regardless of pols or pundit opinion

[booksenkatz]

2. Oh, those poor things

If they are unable to discern the weensiest bit of difference between John Kerry and the grinning, kill-happy fraud on the right, then maybe they shouldn't strain their pitiful minds over it... maybe they should just stay home this go-round and try again some other date, mm-kay? Let's get someone to escort them gently home. Bless their little ole hearts. It must be painful to be so utterly clueless.

[yardwork]

3. Agreed. This elecction is a done-deal landslide

but the press has been paid or scared to say different.

[mefoolonhill]

5. polls

I usually ignore polls, but in '04 they are going to be important-- If the GOP + Diebold try to pull off a massive electronic voting scam, they need they polls to be within the margin of believability going into the election. They can succeed with their scam in states where the margin is expected to be very close; it will be much more difficult to pull it off in states where the polls are predicting a big Kerry win.

[NC_Nurse]

4. They have to keep up the suspense

in order to have jobs in pundit-land. We will hear this constant speculating ad nauseum until Nov, I guarantee it! Even if it becomes an apparent landslide, they'll still speculate on how it could be turned around.

I have to ignore half of this crap to stay sane!

[bemildred]

6. Bullshit. Bullshit. Bullshit. Bullshit. Bullshit. Bullshit.

"more moderate and weary of partisan bickering"
"potentially pivotal voters"
"don't like this polarizing debate"

They will say anything to get the electorate to stay
home on election day. They will say anything to prevent
public debate on real issues. All they want to talk about is
"gay marriage" and "abortion" and horseshit like that.