Canadians cast their votes today

[iverglas]

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040628.wcanadavote0628/BNStory/specialDecision2004/

Canadians cast their votes today

Canadians vote Monday in an election now seen as too close to call with a minority government a likely outcome tonight.

The two frontrunners, leaders of the Liberals and Conservatives, honed their message to supporters on Sunday before heading to their home ridings.

... The campaign of the once seemingly unbeatable Liberals that was to be centred on Mr. Martin's promise to fix Canadian health care ended with a warning that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper would threaten the Charter of Rights, hurt the environment and have Canada join in U.S. military adventures.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1088374209858&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154
(a "riding" is a constituency, each of which has one seat in the House of Commons, for a total of 301 seats)

Key ridings to watch tonight

It's promising to be a late night for anyone who wants to know how today's election turns out.

Unlike the past several election-night broadcasts, when the big tension revolved around which national network would be the first to declare the winner, most politicos and pundits are expecting tonight's result to be too close to call until well after British Columbia's polls close at 10 p.m. EDT.

In the meantime, viewers will have to focus on individual riding races to get a sense of what result is on the horizon.

Here, listed east to west, roughly in the order results will be available tonight, are interesting ridings to watch, which should also give a sense of the larger trends and patterns that will emerge by the end of the evening, when some party — who knows which one? — will be declared a winner. ...

More related stories, for those interested: http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/
There is a live streaming link there for tonight's election coverage.

Additional analysis will come from party representatives Mike Robinson of the Liberals, Tim Powers of the Conservatives and Dawn Black of the NDP. For the first time, viewers will be able to see election results from the moment the polls close in Newfoundland, no matter where you live in the country and no matter when the polls close where you live. As CBC News brings you the first results from Atlantic Canada, we’ll also take you live inside the war rooms of the three parties as they continue to try to get out their vote in the rest of the country. CBC News will broadcast from the Centre Block of the Parliament Buildings and will take viewers live inside the Prime Minister’s Office. We’ll also tell you about the places in which some of the country’s most historic moments happened on Parliament Hill, and where key decisions were made. CBC News will also have an exclusive voting-day survey of people in five key ridings across the country—giving us a peek, for the first time, at why people voted as they did. Rex Murphy will add his thoughts and your comments will be welcome. Send them to [e-mail]

The outcome of the election could be influenced by this new factor, the end of the news blackout in the west until the polls close -- BC and all its stroppy protest voters may wait to see how the vote goes in the rest of the country, particularly Ontario. It is to be hoped that if they see too many Conservative seats stacking up, they'll vote NDP or Liberal (depending on their riding - strategic voting) to ensure that the Conservatives don't get even a plurality of seats in the House. And of course we may still end up with a couple of Green Members of Parliament from BC after tonight.

Me, I won't know 'til it's almost over. I'll be locked in my polling station, "in for the count", as a scrutineer (official observer) for the NDP, which means up to an hour, if all goes well, after the local polls close at 9:30. As the results from each poll are phoned in, the media report them and forecast winners in each riding, and I'll be incommunicada while that's happening.

Wish us luck! What you're wishing for is for the Liberals to win a plurality but not a majority of seats and form a "minority government", so that they will need the support of the NDP in order to pass their legislative initiatives. The NDP serves as the Liberals' warden, if not their conscience, in this situation, and prevents them from straying too far to the right, for instance by allowing the health care system to be undermined or the Charter of Rights and Freedoms (constitution) overridden. If we don't like what they do, we bring their government down by voting non-confidence ... and the Liberal will do just about anything to stay in power.

[Philostopher]

1. Here's hoping for the best for you folks, up there.

Which I gather, from having read a lot of posts here about it, would be the Liberals and NDP forming a minority coalition. Sounds like there's really no way of knowing, lots of it still 'up for grabs,' so we're keeping our fingers crossed for you, down here!

[TO Kid]

2. NDP will be sidelined

The total of Liberal and NDP seats won't be enough to control the Commons. The Bloc will be the kingmakers and backing Martin would be political suicide because they are riding an anti-Liberal wave in Québec. The most likely scenario will be Conservative minority that lasts about a year with little in the way of legislation getting passed. The next election could be like Diefenbaker in the 70s, where he blamed the opposition for obstructing meaningful progress and scored a landslide, or it could be like 1979-80 where Joe Clark got trounced because the electorate viewed him as inept (FWIW Clark was a terrific Cabinet Minister in the 80s but a lousy leader).

[iverglas]

4. ah, and once again

Our smarter wiser cousin tells us how it is.

I'm still waiting for the day when our clever cousin will tell us what s/he thinks about it all.

You know ... the part where we get to know whether said cousin is of a liberal/democratic/progressive bent ... or not.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

9. That's Diefenbaker in the 50's, kid.

Diefenbaker in the 70's was senile.

[iverglas]

17. heh

Diefenbaker in the 70's was senile.

And at least we didn't keep on electing him ...

[TO Kid]

18. Oops

Must've been the senile ghost of Dief moving my finger from 5 to 7. Some would argue Dief was senile long before the 70s...

[PROGRESSIVE1]

11. Why would the BQ back Harper the Bigot?

[SidDithers]

15. One common ground between the Conservatives and Bloc...

is that they both prefer a weaker federal government, and stronger provincial governments.

Though, Gilles Duceppe has said they would not prop up a conservative minority.

We won't really know what's going to happen until it happens :)

Sid

[gula]

3. Please tell me this is not true, my riding could go BQ?????

Now I'll have to check the ongoing tally before voting. I was really planning to vote NDP but if that would support the Bloc then I'm afraid that I'll have to hold my nose and vote for Lapierre. grr:

[TO Kid]

7. Probably

The NDP has never elected anyone in Québec. It'll be a Liberal/BQ split, most of the pundits are predicting the BQ will take at least 50 of the 75 seats.

[Minstrel Boy]

12. You're wrong:

The NDP has never elected anyone in Québec.

Phil Edmonston in a Chambly by-election. After 1988, until the founding of the BQ, the NDP enjoyed a huge surge of support in Quebec. Robert Toupin, a PC Quebec MP, even crossed the floor to join the NDP.

I believe the BQ will fade over the next five years. It'll be the NDP's challenge and opportunity to replace it as Quebeckers' progressive choice.

[TO Kid]

19. Forgot about Edmonston

But as for the floor-crosser, well, it would have been major news if he managed to keep his seat after the next election. Still, the NDP never did too well in that province- the Liberals had a lock on it since the conscription crisis in WWI. Diefenbaker managed to oust the Libs from Québec in 1958 but that was a blip, and Mulroney broke the lock for good in 1984 with the help of the team that later formed the Bloc.

[iverglas]

8. voting on a wing and a held nose

The only ongoing tally you might get before voting is the results from some of Atlantic Canada.

The CBC says the polls close at 7 pm EDT in Newfoundland ... but isn't that 8:30 pm in Newfoundland? I'm confused. I'd assume they close at 8:30 EDT (most of Quebec and Ontario time), which is 9:30 Atlantic daylight time, in the Atlantic Provinces, but waiting for any of those results would be cutting it fine!

The BQ can still be counted on to support social democrat policy in general in a minority govt situation ... but a BQ win could deny the Liberals the plurality they need to form the govt ... it's all so annoyingly complicated trying to second-guess the vote. I'll just smugly cast my NDP ballot and not have to worry about nose-holding ... as I did when I voted Liberal, for the first time ever in a life that has included several dozen elections, in the last Ontario provincial election.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

10. Yeah, the recent EKOS poll showed Lapierre behind in Outremont.

It's entirely his own fault.

[gula]

13. Wait while I wipe the egg off my face

My friend just called to inform me that they changed the riding and that we are now in Laurier. Great, I have NO idea who is running in Laurier and it's a bit late to find out a whole lot about them. Well there is always the pot party candidate. How I do miss the Rhinos.

[gula]

14. Oh boy, this gets better by the minute

Just checked The Globe & Mail and found out that Gilles Duceppe represents my "new" riding. Also just heard on the CBC that he cast his vote in his home riding of Rosemont-Petite Patrie. It sure would be nice to actually be represented by somebody who lives in the neighbourhood they represent as provincially my guy lives in Westmount.

[iverglas]

16. lucky you ;)

You get to vote your conscience, knowing that your vote won't make a damned bit of difference to the outcome -- but will be one more vote for the NDP in Quebec. I mean, I don't imagine the Liberals are about to defeat Duceppe.

http://www.npd.qc.ca/laurier.htm
How unfortunate; it's in French only.

The NDP candidate, François Grégoire, has lived in the riding since 1954, has an M.A. in political science and teaches political science at a Cégep (community college, for the neighbours). He writes about the history of the left in Quebec and the rights of the Palestinian people.

Here are the 1997 results:

http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=gen&document=res_table1205&dir=rep/dec3097&lang=e&anchor=ber&textonly=false#ber

Gilles Duceppe (B.Q.)* - 26,546 - 54.7%
David Ly (Lib.) - 11,154 - 23.0%
Yanick Deschênes (P.C.) - 5,808 - 12.0%
François Degardin (N.D.P.) - 2,180 - 4.5%

[gula]

20. There is that.

And thanks for the link. Considering myself a true Montrealer, although by choice, French is no problem.

I am still reeling from the fact that I am represented by the man with the hairnet. Ouch.

[iverglas]

22. Gilles Duceppe

... or, as the Ipsos-Reid survey-taker who called me a couple of weeks ago put it: Giles Dwups. Or at least that's what it sounded like. I gently instructed her on the pronunciation the second time she fell over it, but she still didn't seem to know who he was.

I watched part of the French-language debate in French, and a bit of him talking to reporters afterward. I'm a lazy bilingual ROC ("rest of Canada") anglophone, and seldom watch Radio-Canada, so I'd never actually heard him say much in his own language. He's totally different. In English, he has a whiny voice and is just all-round irritating. In French, he's pleasant to listen to and obviously very thoughtful and really smart.

It's unfortunate that much of the BQ/PQ (more so the PQ) really are just right-wing wolves in sovereignist clothing. Him, personally, I think he'd make an excellent PM! Perhaps a minority BQ govt is just what we need. ;)

[gula]

25. Actually the BQ is considered to be left leaning as in

social-democrats. Personally I think they are socially progressive but not necessarily fiscally so. They did grow out of the PC's after all. I must admit I never paid much attention to them.

I was away for most of the campaign so missed the debates. I did hear good things about his presentation.

There are rumours that he will be seeking the PQ leadership so your words are encouraging. I can't wait to see the last of Laundry.

But 1. things 1., so I am off to vote.

[TX-RAT]

5. Sounds like you'll be having a long Day.

Good Luck

[jakefrep]

6. All I'm hoping for...

from our Canadian friends is that annoying twerp Harper doesn't become PM.

I get CBC on the local cable, so I'll be camped out in front of the TV tonight.

[daleo]

21. I just voted in Edmonton Strathcona

It could be a sleeper - three strong local candidates. I hope it is close anyway - I get tired of the conservative predominance in Alberta. Provincially the riding is held by NDP, and the NDP candidate (Malcolm Azania) sure got out the lawn signs around here, so you never know. My son voted in his first election - I am fairly certain he voted NDP, but he could have went Green. Nice to see him vote, anyway.

On edit - it was fairly busy for lunch time voting. It is a beautiful day here, so that should encourage the turnout.

[iverglas]

23. did he watch Screw the Vote?

http://www.cbc.ca/screwthevote/ - Canada's answer to Rock the Vote.
"Screw the vote; let other's decide your future."

Planning to vote in the upcoming election? Why bother?

According to Elections Canada, barely 25 per cent of Canadians between 18 and 24 years old voted in the 2000 federal election.

“Rock The Vote” concerts have been around since 1990 in the United States, with no discernible impact.

Facts in hand, Ghomeshi decides if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em!

(Click on the video link at the bottom left to see celebrities, some of them apparently too humourless to be Canadian, reacting.)

[daleo]

26. He didn't mention it

But it looks quite amusing. He would probably appreciate the irony.

Speaking of TV and especially the CBC, I think Martin made a tactical error with the timing of this vote. Had he went in the fall, when Monday Report and 22 Minutes are doing first run broadcasts, they would have done half the work for him, taking apart Harper with humour. Sure, they would have gone after Martin too, but Harper looks like a much better target for satire. The underlying pomposity would show through pretty quickly.

[Minstrel Boy]

24. Azania would be a great MP.

I think he has a great chance. That's one riding I'll be watching closely.

[bubblesby2002]

27. Well I'm off to vote....

for my NDP candidate Randall Garrison and to do a bit of volunteering. Gonna be counting special votes.

My choice NDP majority - not gonna happen, so I'll go with Liberal minority/NDP coalition.

[Lisa]

28. I had to be at the polling place at 6:30 AM to set up ...

so I was out of communication for the whole day, as an NDP poll captain. It was like being in a time warp -- I didn't know how the vote went until they certified the results. (The Liberal poll captain heard about the eastern results on her cell phone during the ballot counting, and I'm not ashamed to say that we hugged each other -- her guy did very well in our riding, and may well beat the neo-Con next time!)